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Indianapolis Colts Week 19 Fantasy Analysis

January 11, 2008 @ 11:04:06

By Adam Barricklow
Edited by Herija C. Green

Indianapolis Colts Fantasy Matchups - Week 19

Opponent: vs. San Diego Chargers

The Colts (13-3) start the playoffs facing the Chargers (11-5), who are coming off a 17-6 victory over the Tennessee Titans last Sunday. The two teams met back in Week 10 with the Chargers picking off quarterback Peyton Manning six times and walking away with a 23-21 victory. Wide receivers Marvin Harrison (knee) and Anthony Gonzalez (foot) are both expected to be available to play this week, which would be the first time since Week 7 that the Colts wide receiving corps was at full strength. With a full compliment of wide receivers, running back Joseph Addai could have more room to run against the Chargers defense. The good news for the Colts on defense is that the Chargers are likely to be without tight end Antonio Gates (toe), which should limit San Diego's weapons on offense.

Quarterback

Table: Per-Game Statistics - Weeks 15-18

Player	G	Comp/G	Att/G	Pass Yds/G	Pass TDs/G	INTs/G	Rush Yds/G	Rush TDs/G	PH
Peyton Manning	3	21	30	227.3	1.33	0.33	0.7	0.00	-

Manning had arguably the worst game of his career when he faced the Chargers in Week 10. While he threw for two touchdowns and more than 300 yards, his six interceptions were obviously a big reason for the team's loss. The good news for Manning and the Colts is that Harrison and Gonzalez, neither of whom played in the first meeting between the teams, appear on track to play this week. Despite his six interceptions in their last meeting, consider Manning a No. 1 quarterback this week against the Chargers.

Table: Opponent vs. Position

Team	G	Comp/G	Att/G	Pass Yds/G	Pass TDs/G	INTs/G	Rush Yds/G	Rush TDs/G
Chargers	4	20	35	204.8	0.75	2.25	13.5	0.00

The Chargers' 2.25 interceptions per game over the last four weeks are second-most in the league during that timeframe.

Running Back

Table: Per-Game Statistics - Weeks 15-18

Player	G	Util/G (%)	RZ Util/G (%)	In-5 Util/G	Rush Yds/G	Rush TDs/G	Rec/G	Rec Yds/G	Rec TDs/G	PH
Joseph Addai	3	11.00(18.35)	2.33(20.37)	0.67	32.3	0.33	2.33	15.3	0.00	-
Kenton Keith	3	6.33(10.57)	1.00(8.73)	0.33	27.7	0.00	0.67	2.7	0.00	N/A

Addai's stats are a bit misleading as he only had 10 carries over the last two weeks of the season due to an injury in Week 16 and the team resting him for much of the Week 17 game. Still, he has not recorded a 100-yard game since Week 9. Week 10 against the Chargers he averaged only 2.6 yards per carry and totaled 56 yards rushing. He should be considered a No. 1 or No. 2 running back and a weak play this week.

Keith has been utilized in 10 percent of the team's offense over the last four weeks, but he has gotten more playing time than he likely would due to injuries and the team resting their starters. He could serve as a No. 3 running back this week, but he is best left on your bench as he is also a weak play.

Table: Opponent vs. Position

Team	G	Att/G	Rush Yds/G	Rush TDs/G	Rec/G	Rec Yds/G	Rec TDs/G
Chargers	4	20.2	73.5	0.25	4.25	28.0	0.00

The 73.5 rushing yards allowed per contest over the last four weeks is third-best in the league.

Wide Receiver

Table: Per-Game Statistics - Weeks 15-18

Player	G	Targets/G (%)	RZ Targets/G (%)	In-5 Targets/G	Rec/G	Rec Yds/G	Rec TDs/G	PH
Reggie Wayne	3	12.00(20.02)	1.33(11.64)	0.33	8.67	99.7	0.33	+
Anthony Gonzalez	2	5.00(5.56)	1.00(5.82)	0.00	4.50	54.0	0.50	N/A
Marvin Harrison	0	--	--	--	--	--	--	+
Craphonso Thorpe	1	9.00 (5.01)	1.00 (2.91)	1.00	6.00	23.0	1.00	N/A
Devin Aromashodu	3	5.00 (8.34)	1.00 (8.73)	0.33	2.00	28.7	0.00	N/A

With Harrison out of the lineup for most of the season, Wayne has assumed the role as the team's No. 1 wide receiver. Wayne has excelled in that role posting career numbers in both receptions and receiving yards. In the team's Week 10 matchup with San Diego, Wayne had 10 receptions for 140 yards and one touchdown. Consider him a No. 1 wide receiver this week.

Gonzalez (foot) suffered a foot injury that saw him miss Week 17. He is expected to play this week but it is a situation to follow for fantasy owners. He is not likely to see as much involvement in the team's offense if Harrison (knee) returns forcing him to the No. 3 role at wide receiver. Consider Gonzalez a No. 1 or No. 2 wide receiver this week.

The Colts are expecting Harrison to get his first action since Week 5 of the regular season against the Chargers this Sunday. It is difficult to imagine he will be in top shape, and he might show a bit of rust after such a long layoff. Consider Harrison a No. 3 wide receiver this week.

Thorpe and Aromashodu primary got work because of the team locking up the second seed, and they don't figure to play expanded roles in the postseason. Bench them both.

Table: Opponent vs. Position

Team	G	Rec/G	Rec Yds/G	Rec TDs/G
Chargers	4	10.25	118.8	0.75

The 118.8 receiving yards allowed per contest by the Chargers over the last four weeks ranks seventh in the league.

Tight End

Table: Per-Game Statistics - Weeks 15-18

Player	G	Targets/G (%)	RZ Targets/G (%)	In-5 Targets/G	Rec/G	Rec Yds/G	Rec TDs/G	PH
Dallas Clark	3	5.33(8.90)	1.67(14.55)	0.33	2.67	24.7	0.67	+
Ben Utecht	2	3.50(3.89)	1.00(5.82)	0.50	2.50	38.5	0.00
Bryan Fletcher	3	3.00(5.01)	0.33(2.91)	0.00	2.00	10.0	0.00

With their receiving corps weakened for most of the season, the Colts have had to lean mover heavily on the tight end position than they have in the past. Clark has been the main beneficiary posting career highs in receptions, receiving yards and touchdowns. He, too, missed the team's Week 10 loss to the Chargers, and his availability this Sunday is another added dimension for the Colts offense. Consider Clark a high-end No. 1 tight end this week.

While Clark has been the main beneficiary with the Colts using the tight end more often, both Fletcher and Utecht have benefited as well. Over the last four weeks (two games) Utecht has actually recorded the most receiving yards per game and could serve as a No. 1 tight end if you're in need, but he is best served on your bench.

Fletcher should be kept on fantasy benches this week as he has been the least utilized tight end in the Colts lineup.

Table: Opponent vs. Position

Team	G	Rec/G	Rec Yds/G	Rec TDs/G
Chargers	4	4.75	52.8	0.00

The Chargers have struggled defending against the tight end position. Their 52.8 receiving yards per contest over the last four weeks ranks in the bottom 10 in the league, though they have not yielded a touchdown to the position in that time.

Place Kicker

Table: Per-Game Statistics - Weeks 15-18

Player	G	FG/G	FG Att/G	XP/G	XP Att/G	Kick Pts/G
Adam Vinatieri	3	1.33	1.33	2.33	2.33	6.3

Vinatieri has been perfect on both field goals and extra points over the last four weeks (three games). However, only getting 1.33 field goal attempts per contest has limited his value. Consider Vinatieri a low-end No. 1 kicker this week and a weak play.

Table: Opponent vs. Position

Team	G	FG/G	FG Att/G	XP/G	XP Att/G	Kick Pts/G
Chargers	3	1.00	1.50	1.00	1.00	4.00

The four kicking points per contest that the Chargers have given up over the last four weeks ties them for fourth-best in the league.

Defensive Team/Special Teams

Table: Per-Game Statistics - Weeks 15-18

Team	G	Off Pts Allowed/G	Net Yds Allowed/G	Sacks/G	INT/G	Fum Rec/G
Colts	3	15.0	302.7	0.33	1.00	0.67

While the Colts defense has done well in limiting offensive points, they have struggled in recording sacks. The 0.33 sacks per contest recorded by the Colts defense are lowest average in the league over the last four weeks. The loss of defensive end Dwight Freeney (foot) has resulted in the team struggling to consistently pressure opposing quarterbacks and force mistakes. The Colts could serve as a No. 1 defense this week, though that is due mostly to the fact that few other teams are playing.

Table: Opponent Offense vs. Defense

Team	G	Off Pts/G	Net Yds/G	Sacks Allowed/G	INT Thrown/G	Fum Lost/G
Chargers	4	27.2	338.2	1.00	0.25	0.50

The Chargers have been clicking on offense over the last four weeks. They have averaged nearly 30 points per contest, but equally important they have limited the number of turnovers and sacks surrendered as well. The Chargers will likely be without Gates, which could limit their offense and allow the Colts to key more on running back LaDanian Tomlinson than they otherwise could.

Author Bio

Adam Barricklow

Adam Barricklow is based out of Central Ohio and has been a KFFL Contributor since 2003. Adam has been playing Fantasy Football since 1996 and has been addicted since day one. Adam plays in various leagues, running one of them and uses his experience and knowledge to create reports that are able to help the fantasy player look at every perspective.