Matchups to Exploit - Week 19
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January 10, 2008 @ 00:36:12
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By Hot off the Wire Network Contributors
Edited by Nicholas Minnix
Seahawks QB Matt Hasselbeck vs. Packers pass defense
Hasselbeck needs to bounce back from a sub-par performance against the Washington Redskins. It was a game in which he threw two interceptions that led to a 68.4 quarterback rating, a number dwarfed by his 91.4 rating for the season. He'll have his full complement of receivers for the first time since Nov. 25 at the St. Louis Rams, when wideout D.J. Hackett sprained his ankle again. The only other game they were all together was the opener against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, when Hackett originally was hurt in the first half. The big question is how the Seahawks' erratic offensive line will hold up against the Packers' huge defensive line, which includes defensive end Aaron Kampman, whose 27.5 sacks in the past two seasons are second in the NFL. Besides, this is Hasselbeck's chance for redemption from Wild Card Round in 2004. That game went into overtime, Seattle won the coin toss, and Hasselbeck said, "We want the ball, and we're going to score!" He then threw an interception on the first drive that Packers corner Al Harris returned for a touchdown.
Seahawks WR Bobby Engram vs. Packers CBs Charles Woodson and Tramon Williams
With injuries to wide receivers Deion Branch (calf) and D.J. Hackett over the course of the season, Engram was Hasselbeck's favorite target this year and caught 94 passes. This week, with both Branch and Hackett healthy for the first time in a while, Engram probably will be working mostly out of the slot in three- and four-receiver sets, where he's most effective. That means the Packers will likely be in nickel defense regularly, and Woodson usually moves inside to cover the slot receiver in the nickel. If the Packers make sure Woodson matches up with Engram, it could cut Engram's reception total significantly.
Packers QB Brett Favre vs. Seahawks pass defense
The Seahawks led the NFC in interceptions and were first in fewest passing touchdowns allowed. The combination of defensive end Patrick Kerney and linebacker Julian Peterson (24 sacks combined), plus the always dangerous linebacker LeRoy Hill, gives them some firepower to combat the magnificence of Favre. It also helps that Holmgren knows Favre so well - as does defensive consultant Ray Rhodes. They should be as prepared as possible for such a rare and unpredictable talent. The Seahawks coaching staff believes the biggest difference this season has been the growth of second-year wideout Greg Jennings and rookie James Jones. Marcus Trufant has had a Pro Bowl season at cornerback for the Seahawks, and corner Kelly Jennings has come on faster than anyone anticipated in his second season. This should be a great matchup as well.
Packers RB Ryan Grant vs. Seahawks LBs Lofa Tatupu and Julian Peterson
The Packers probably will give Seattle a good dose of the four- and five-receiver sets that have been so effective this season. They might also be tempted to spread out the defense and get the Seahawks to change to nickel or dime personnel by going four receivers, or even three receivers and a tight end, and then give the ball to Grant. That could catch the Seahawks off-guard and perhaps slow their pass rush. Tatupu and Peterson are two of the Seahawks' best defensive playmakers, but running Grant out of that personnel grouping will put a lot of pressure on them. This could be a productive game for Grant.
Jaguars QB David Garrard vs. Patriots secondary
Garrard has carried this team on his back throughout the season. He hasn't put up big numbers, but he has effectively run the offense and has not turned the ball over. He went without an interception the first 11 games this year, but he has since thrown a pick in four of the five games he has played, including pair last week. He now faces one of the top secondaries, led by strong safety Rodney Harrison, the only NFL player ever to record 30 sacks and intercept 30 passes. Last week, Garrard started his first NFL playoff game, which could account for his sub-par effort and worst passer rating of the year. The Pats' deep backs are crafty veterans and will attempt to entice him into some bad throws. Garrard will likely favor the short passing game this week.
Jaguars RBs Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew vs. Patriots rushing defense
If the Jaguars have any chance to upset the Patriots, it starts with the running game, where Taylor and Jones-Drew will have to improve on last week's combined total of 77 yards on 24 carries against the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Jaguars want to keep the ball out of New England quarterback Tom Brady's hands and will look to establish a solid running game to eat up time on the clock. The Jags would like to run it 40 times, but if they fall behind, they'll have to scrap that plan. The Pats will likely load the box with eight or even nine defenders and challenge Garrard to beat them. If they shut down Taylor and Jones-Drew, they'll likely stop the Jaguars offense and get the ball back to Brady, which would eventually be the means of a victory.
Patriots QB Tom Brady vs. Jaguars linebackers
Brady has had success against almost everyone this year. The only time he has struggled is when teams have been able to put pressure on him. With the Jaguars' weakened defensive front due to injuries to defensive tackles John Henderson (hamstring) and Grady Jackson (knee), they aren't likely to get a big pass rush from the front four. That means a linebacker or two may be coming more so than usual with the hope that the secondary can handle the coverage on the Pats' receivers. The problem is that this creates single coverage on someone like wideout Randy Moss, and few teams have been able to stop him with just one player.
Patriots WR Randy Moss vs. Jaguars CBs Rashean Mathis and Brian Williams
Moss has it all - size, speed and the ability to get open. He's having possibly the best year of his career, with nine games of 100 receiving yards or more and an NFL single-season record of 23 touchdown catches. As the Jaguars' top corner, Mathis, a former Pro Bowler, will likely draw the job of trying to contain Moss. Mathis has struggled this year but had probably his best game last week against Pittsburgh, when he had two picks, one of which went for a touchdown. At 6-foot-1, Mathis has the advantage of being taller than most corners that line up opposite the 6-foot-4 Moss. Mathis probably has the speed to stay with Moss, too, but he still gives up three inches and 20 pounds to him. Williams has the size (205 pounds) to get physical with Moss, but he gives up five inches to him. The Jaguars may try to alternate their coverage on Moss with either Mathis or Williams, but eventually they may have to turn to a safety for added coverage. During the regular season, Moss showed that height and number of defenders usually don't matter, though. The weather Saturday night calls for clear skies and no precipitation, so New England will likely stick with the pass-heavy game that has led to so much success this season.
Patriots offensive line vs. Jaguars defensive line
It's hard to single out any one matchup here. With a tough front four, including the banged-up Jackson and Henderson, on a team that likes to rough up its opponents, it will be imperative for the New England offensive line to: (1) Give Brady plenty of time to throw, and (2) keep him upright and protected. Brady's numbers in three previous games against the Jaguars (all wins) show that his line has done well. He is 65-for-100 for 678 yards, six touchdowns and no interceptions.
Chargers QB Philip Rivers vs. Colts pass defense
Rivers had just 104 passing yards, two interceptions and a horrible 30.6 passer rater when the Chargers beat Indianapolis 23-21 earlier this season. He also lost a fumble that was recovered for a touchdown. He'll need to play much better Sunday against an Indianapolis defense that finished third in the NFL in total defense and second in pass defense as well as led the NFL in scoring defense. Rivers will be wary of NFL Defensive Player of the Year Bob Sanders, the hard-hitting strong safety that seemingly is everywhere on the field. The Colts also expect to have defensive end Robert Mathis (knees) and Raheem Brock (rib), so the pass rush that in recent weeks was inept may be in the quarterback's face. In all likelihood, Rivers will be without star tight end Antonio Gates (toe). He will need to hit wideouts Chris Chambers and Vincent Jackson for big gains, just as he did in last Sunday's playoff win over the Tennessee Titans. Rivers showed he could lead his team, as he passed for 292 yards and a score when Tennessee was crowding the box to stop running back LaDainian Tomlinson.
Chargers RB LaDainian Tomlinson vs. Colts run defense
In the teams' meeting earlier this season, on a rainy field, the flashy cutback runner managed 76 yards on 21 carries with one score. He also caught four passes for 19 yards. LT can break out and do a lot more, but as last week's game showed, teams are stacking the box to stop him. The Colts' 15th-ranked run defense is sure to take a page from Tennessee's playbook a week ago and move Sanders into the box. LT had 42 yards on 21 carries against the Titans. This time, the game will be played on dry FieldTurf, so he won't be slowed by a slick surface. That said, the Colts' defenders are faster at home.
Colts QB Peyton Manning vs. Chargers secondary
The Chargers hit the Pick 6 against Peyton Manning earlier this season, intercepting six passes. Hard to believe that happened once, let alone the possibility of it happening again. San Diego cornerback Antonio Cromartie intercepted three of those passes. Strong safety Clinton Hart, outside linebacker Shaun Phillips and inside linebacker Matt Wilhelm each had one pick as well. Despite the turnover issues, Manning still passed for 328 yards and two touchdowns. He also might have his whole arsenal for this contest, as wide receiver Marvin Harrison and tight end Dallas Clark both missed the earlier contest with injuries. Wideout Reggie Wayne had a splendid game, though, with 10 receptions for 140 yards and a touchdown.
Colts offensive line vs. Chargers pass rushers
The Colts have had issues against the Chargers' 3-4 defense in the last couple of meetings, but the last time was as much a result of inexperienced blockers and receivers. That led to Manning forcing things, with six interceptions. The Colts played the second half of the last game with a practice squad player at left tackle and a guard moved to tackle after two linemen went down. Manning was sacked twice, but it should have been more. This time, rookie left tackle Tony Ugoh is back, as is right tackle Ryan Diem (knee). The line is intact and will be looking to play with the form it showed in beating the 3-4 defense of New England in last year's playoff meeting as well as two previous regular season meetings. The Colts had the Patriots down 20-10 this year before collapsing late, so it's not so much the 3-4 alignment but how the players execute, as the coaches say.
Giants QB Eli Manning vs. Cowboys pass rush
Manning has put together two good games against high-pressure teams and has thrown just one interception - it did not come against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Manning was an efficient 20-for-27 for 185 yards and two touchdowns. He engineered a time-consuming 92-yard touchdown drive over the third and fourth quarters. The key this week will be his ability to sustain some drives, as opposed to the fast scoring drives that marked the regular season opener in Dallas. His ability to keep the chains moving, eat time and manage a turnover-free game will be vital to the Giants' success. Meanwhile, the line will have to keep Dallas' pass rushers - linebackers DeMarcus Ware (14 sacks) and Greg Ellis (12.5) - out of the backfield.
Giants RBs Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw vs. Cowboys run defense
The Giants have now developed their most effective one-two punch of the season by using Bradshaw to spell Jacobs in the first half and eat up time in the second half. A successful combination of the two against the league's fourth best run defense would do wonders to keep quarterback Tony Romo and his quick-strike offense off the field. Bradshaw actually had four more carries and 32 more yards than Jacobs last week in Tampa. It was Jacobs who came up with the big runs and catches, though, notching a receiving touchdown and a rushing touchdown. Ware is both a pass rusher and a run-stopping linebacker that can shut down either back.
Giants OT David Diehl vs. Cowboys LB DeMarcus Ware
Ware was a force in the second meeting, finishing with 10 tackles and a sack of Manning. The Giants will give Diehl help, but not all the time. That's when Ware has to win. The Giants allowed a season-high five sacks to the Cowboys in November. With center Shaun O'Hara's (knee) status unknown, the Giants will likely be somewhat at a disadvantage. Manning did a great job of getting rid of the ball quickly versus Tampa Bay, but the Cowboys can disrupt things more than Tampa Bay can largely because of Ware. He had 14 sacks and 27 quarterback pressures on the season.
Cowboys QB Tony Romo vs. Giants pass rush
The Giants sacked Buccaneers quarterback Jeff Garcia just once last week, but they hit him 11 times and forced him into several off-target passes. If defensive ends Michael Strahan and Osi Umenyiora can do the same to Romo, a quarterback with even more mobility than Garcia, they'll have a good chance of winning. The secret will be to generate that rush from the front four, since Romo is excellent at seeing the blitz and hitting the hot receiver. Even with game-breaking wide receiver Terrell Owens (ankle) possibly at half-speed, Romo is a dangerous entity, especially when he finds Pro Bowl tight end Jason Witten in the open spots. A successful four-man rush will free up linebackers Gerris Wilkinson and Reggie Torbor to keep a tighter rein on Witten than they did in the season opener.
Cowboys WR Terrell Owens vs. Giants CB Sam Madison or CB Corey Webster
Owens should play Sunday, but they don't know how effective he will be because of a sprained left ankle that knocked him out of the Cowboys' second-to-last regular season game. Owens, however, was a nightmare for the Giants this season. He had four touchdowns on nine catches in two games. He has the speed to get by Madison (abdomen), and Owens has proven he can handle him at the line, too. With Madison not 100 percent, Webster filled in last week at Tampa and played well. However, if TO is close to being TO, Webster would have problems with Owens' strength and running ability after catch.
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