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Strong Plays, Weak Plays - Week 19

January 9, 2008 @ 10:27:14

By Herija C. Green and Matthew Wilson
Edited by Cory J. Bonini and Tim Heaney

Welcome to another edition of KFFL's "Strong Plays, Weak Plays" feature. Here, we'll identify strong matchups of interest that you can exploit as well as determine a few weak matchups in which you might want to consider benching your normal starter in favor of a backup. Our intention is not to tell you the obvious, such as "Start LaDainian Tomlinson!" or "Start Peyton Manning!" Instead, it is to point out some matchups involving players who aren't considered fantasy stars. Of course, we'll sometimes highlight a top fantasy player's matchup if it is an especially noteworthy strong or weak play.

Important, Please Read! Remember, just because a player has a strong-play matchup does not mean that it is an automatic endorsement as a starter. It does provide you with some valuable information to make decisions, though. As an example, some players with the "Strong Play" tag may still be a No. 4 fantasy wideout and shouldn't be started ahead of your normal starters. He just may have greater potential than normal but not enough to warrant a definite benching of someone else for him. Conversely, if a player is on the "Weak Play" list, he may not be an automatic bench, either. A stud won't have an easy matchup every week. However, he's a stud because he can overcome the weak-play situation.

Quarterbacks - Strong Plays

David Garrard, Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots

Matchup	Games	Pass Yards/G	Pass TDs/G	INTs/G	Rush Yards/G	Rush TD/G
Garrard	3	178.7	2.00	1.33	28.3	0.33
Patriots vs. Pos.	3	202.7	1.67	0.67	8.7	0.00

Despite a bit of a rough performance in last Saturday night's Wild Card win over the Pittsburgh Steelers, Garrard still made the game's biggest play when he scampered 32 yards on a fourth down late in the game to put the Jags in position to kick the game-winning field goal. His three-game splits still look pretty good, particularly the six overall touchdowns, though four of his five total interceptions this season have come in that time.

New England's three-game averages don't look too bad on the surface, but then again you have to keep in mind two of their opponents during that stretch were the Miami Dolphins and New York Jets. They looked mediocre at best against the pass in Week 17 against the New York Giants, and we like Garrard's chances to post some big numbers this Saturday. Play him with confidence as a top quarterback option.

Quarterbacks - Weak Plays

Matt Hasselbeck, Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers

Matchup	Games	Pass Yards/G	Pass TDs/G	INTs/G	Rush Yards/G	Rush TD/G
Hasselbeck	4	212.2	1.25	1.00	8.2	0.00
Packers vs. Pos.	3	188.7	1.00	1.33	-0.3	0.00

Hasselbeck (quadriceps) made the big throw to wide receiver D.J. Hackett to put Seattle on top to stay last Saturday, but before that he had been up and down, at best. He was picked off twice and fumbled as well as he clearly was affected by his jammed right wrist. Add to that a deep quad bruise, coupled with a tough Packers defense, and you have all the makings of a potentially long afternoon for Hasselbeck.

The Packers have done a very good job of making life miserable on opposing quarterbacks, generating a solid pass rush and playing tight coverage in allowing their opponents to complete just half of their passes in the past month. They've also had more interceptions (four) than touchdowns allowed (three) in that time. Despite the tough matchup, Hasselbeck remains playable as a mid-range No. 1 quarterback.

Running Backs - Strong Plays

Laurence Maroney, New England Patriots vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Matchup	Games	Rush Yards/G	Rush TD/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TDs/G
Maroney	3	102.0	1.33	0.00	0.0	0.00
Jaguars vs. Pos.	4	103.8	1.25	3.50	23.2	0.00

Though the Patriots have been almost exclusively associated with the aerial connection of quarterback Tom Brady and receiver Randy Moss this season, Maroney was actually very strong down the stretch for the Pats. The second-year back averaged more than 100 yards per game on the ground during the final three games of the regular season and amassed four touchdowns during that time.

Much like New England's association with their passing offense, Jacksonville is frequently described as a team that can run the ball and stop the run. Well, during the past month, they haven't been the shutdown defensive unit they were at times during the season. A season-ending injury to defensive tackle Marcus Stroud (ankle) hasn't helped, and now defensive tackle John Henderson (hamstring) figures to be at less than 100 percent for this Saturday. Look for Maroney to get the ball a lot this week, and play him as a high-end No. 1 running back.

Julius Jones, Dallas Cowboys vs. New York Giants

Matchup	Games	Rush Yards/G	Rush TD/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TDs/G
Jones	3	12.3	0.00	1.00	4.7	0.00
Giants vs. Pos.	4	96.0	1.50	5.75	58.5	0.00

Jones has seemingly been all but fazed out of the offense over the last month with less than 20 yards per game in that time. However, his highest yardage output of the season came against the G-Men back in Week 1 when he ran for 66 yards, and he added 48 more in their Week 10 rematch.

The Giants are allowing less than 100 yards per game on the ground, which looks solid, but they are yielding more than 150 total yards per game and an uninspiring six touchdowns overall to the position in the past month. Plus, Dallas could look to lean more heavily on their ground game depending on the health of receiver Terrell Owens (ankle) and their overall offensive struggles of late. Tailback Marion Barber III still figures to get most of the work, but Jones can be played as a low-end No. 2 or solid No. 3 option this Sunday.

Running Backs - Weak Plays

Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots

Matchup	Games	Rush Yards/G	Rush TD/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TDs/G
Taylor	4	102.0	1.00	0.33	0.7	0.00
Jones-Drew	3	47.3	0.67	4.00	56.3	0.33
Patriots vs. Pos.	3	80.3	0.00	5.00	39.0	0.33

Taylor and Jones-Drew parlayed their regular season success into some quality work against the Steelers in the first round. Taylor managed 50 total yards and a touchdown, which while well below what he'd done down the stretch was still solid production. However, it was Jones-Drew that was the Jags' home run hitter with 72 offensive yards and a pair of touchdowns (one rushing, one receiving). Plus, he nearly added a third on a kickoff return after Pittsburgh took a 7-0 lead. As it was, he gave Jacksonville the ball at the 1-yard line and set up Taylor's touchdown plunge.

Unlike their pass defense, New England has been stout against the run, having not allowed a touchdown on the ground in the past month. Their 80.3 rushing yards allowed per game in that time ranks second among the remaining playoff teams, and they figure to provide a tough test for Jacksonville's two-headed rushing attack. Despite being weak plays, both Jaguars backs should be played as solid No. 1 options.

Wide Receivers - Strong Plays

Donald Driver, Green Bay Packers vs. Seattle Seahawks

Matchup	Games	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TDs/G
Driver	2	4.50	56.0	0.00
Seahawks vs. Pos.	4	12.25	140.0	1.25

Driver may have taken a backseat to receiver Greg Jennings in fantasy circles (and in the end zone) this season, but he remains quarterback Brett Favre's most targeted receiver and one of the few players on the team with playoff experience. He sat out the team's Week 17 contest to get some rest and should be as healthy as he's been in months after having not played in nearly three weeks come this Saturday.

Despite not allowing huge numbers to opposing receivers over the last month, Seattle ranks dead last in all three categories among the remaining playoff teams. In addition, they have played some of the league's worst offenses in that time, facing Carolina Panthers quarterback Matt Moore, Baltimore Ravens quarterback Troy Smith, Atlanta Falcons quarterback Chris Redman and Redskins quarterback Todd Collins. None of the four began the season as their team's starter and only Collins was even the primary backup. In fact, the Seahawks amazingly haven't played a team's No. 1 quarterback since Week 10! Seattle could be in for a rude awakening via the air this week so play Driver as a No. 2 or No. 3 receiver for the divisional round.

Amani Toomer, New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys

Matchup	Games	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TDs/G
Toomer	4	4.00	53.5	0.25
Cowboys vs. Pos.	3	11.33	138.0	1.00

Toomer had a big game in helping the Giants past the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last Sunday, hauling in seven passes for 74 yards and a touchdown. He seems to be on the same page with quarterback Eli Manning and is benefiting from the attention receiver Plaxico Burress commands on the other side. The last time the veteran made his way to Dallas he came away with nine receptions (a season-high) for 91 yards.

Like Seattle, Dallas is among the weaker remaining pass defenses, one that Manning shredded for 312 yards and four touchdowns in his last visit to Texas Stadium. The Cowboys fared much better against Manning last time (236 yards, two interceptions). However, they weren't overly impressive down the stretch in losing two of their final three games and, before that, narrowly escaping with a one-point win in Week 14. Play Toomer as a No. 2 or No. 3 option.

Tight Ends - Strong Plays

Donald Lee, Green Bay Packers vs. Seattle Seahawks

Matchup	Games	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TDs/G
Lee	2	1.00	3.0	0.50
Seahawks vs. Pos.	4	4.00	57.2	0.50

Granted, Lee (rib) closed out the regular season with some terrible numbers, but keep in mind that a nagging injury and some negative circumstances clearly impacted his fantasy production. In Week 15 against the St. Louis Rams, the Packers didn't need to throw much during what was an easy win. In Week 16, the entire Green Bay passing game was neutralized in the Windy City by some very blustery weather and a Chicago Bears defense that was playing its "Super Bowl." In Week 17, Lee was benched so that he could get healthy, and the Packers had a playoff Bye last week. Lee finished the regular season ranked No. 3 on the club in receptions (48), No. 4 in receiving yards (575) and No. 2 in touchdown receptions (six), so we fully expect him to continue serving as a main cog in the Green Bay passing game with a nice matchup this week.

During the last four weeks, the Seahawks have had some difficulty containing enemy tight ends. Only eight other teams have yielded more touchdowns per game to the position. In addition, Seattle has given up per-game reception and receiving yardage numbers that both rank below-average in the league during that stretch. Consider Lee a great mid-tier No. 1 tight end.

Tight Ends - Weak Plays

Kevin Boss, New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys

Matchup	Games	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TDs/G
Boss	4	2.00	23.8	0.50
Cowboys vs. Pos.	3	3.00	35.0	0.00

With tight end Jeremy Shockey (leg) lost for the season and wide receiver Plaxico Burress (ankle) playing hurt, we fully expect the Giants to continue using Boss as a primary weapon in their passing game. However, we don't think the rookie from Western Oregon University will post strong numbers this week against a Dallas defense that has enjoyed a notable degree of success containing enemy tight ends. Boss, who replaced Shockey in the starting lineup full-time in Week 16, has been targeted 2.75 times per game (4.24 percent) during the last four weeks. He also has received an average of 0.75 looks per contest inside the red zone during that time span.

The Cowboys are one of 12 teams that did not allowed a touchdown to the tight end position during the last four weeks (three games played). On the positive side for Boss, Dallas has surrendered per-game reception and receiving yardage numbers to the position that rank close to average during that time frame. On the downside, since the Cowboys are expected to blitz quarterback Eli Manning quite frequently, Boss likely will have more blocking duties than usual. Boss still rates as a mid-tier No. 1 fantasy tight end.

Place Kickers - Strong Plays

Mason Crosby, Green Bay Packers vs. Seattle Seahawks

Matchup	Games	FGA/G	FG/G	XPA/G	XP/G	Pts/Game
Crosby	3	2.00	2.00	2.67	2.67	8.7
Seahawks vs. Pos.	4	1.75	1.25	2.00	2.00	5.8

The rookie sixth-round pick from Colorado was a great find for the Packers and for fantasy owners. Thanks to Green Bay's newfound offensive prowess, Crosby finished led the league in scoring (141 actual kicking points) during the regular season. He also finished No. 1 in field goal attempts (39) and tied for No. 2 in field goals (31). Although Crosby's matchup doesn't look good on paper, we are expecting a good game from him.

Admittedly, Seattle's 5.8 actual kicking points allowed per game ranks slightly above-average in the league during the last four weeks, but don't let that dissuade you from using Crosby. The Packers offense has been dynamite at home this season, and the Seahawks have had their struggles on the road. Don't forget that former Green Bay and current Seattle head coach Mike Holmgren is making a return to Lambeau Field. It's a given that quarterback Brett Favre will want to roll up some points on his former mentor. Crosby is a great option as a No. 1 place kicker.

Place Kickers - Weak Plays

Stephen Gostkowski, New England Patriots vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Matchup	Games	FGA/G	FG/G	XPA/G	XP/G	Pts/Game
Gostkowski	3	1.67	1.67	3.00	3.00	8.0
Jaguars vs. Pos.	4	0.50	0.50	2.50	2.50	4.0

The second-year pro has done an outstanding job of replacing current Indianapolis Colts place kicker Adam Vinatieri. Gostkowski amassed 137 actual kicking points during the regular season, which was the second-highest total in the league. However, Gostkowski frustrated fantasy owners on occasion because he frequently attempted way more extra points than field goals, which resulted in per-game scoring totals that rarely topped the double-digit mark. We are expecting a typical so-so performance from "Gosty" this weekend.

The Jaguars, during the last four weeks, have surrendered just four actual kicking points per game, which is tied for the fourth-fewest given up in the league during time frame. Gostkowski is a not a bad selection as a mid-tier No. 1 place kicker, but there are a few better options available.

Team Defenses - Strong Plays

Green Bay Packers vs. Seattle Seahawks

Matchup	Games	Pts/G	Yds/G	Sacks/G	Ints/G	Fum/G
Packers Def.	3	16.7	299.0	1.33	1.33	0.00
Seahawks Off.	4	23.2	355.8	2.50	1.25	0.75

The Green Bay defense has played its best football at home this season, and we are expecting another stellar effort from what will be a well-rested unit. The Packers closed out the last four weeks (three games played) with some impressive per-game points and total yardage allowed numbers, but their usually solid pass rush slipped noticeably.

The Seahawks have rolled up some strong per-game offensive point and yardage numbers that both rank in the top-10 of the league during the last four weeks, but they have had difficulty protecting the passer and have surrendered an average of two turnovers per game. Seattle also has struggled on the road at times during the regular season. Mike Holmgren's return will promote extra incentive for the Packers, who should re-discover their pass rush. The Green Bay defense rates a solid mid-tier No. 1 defense.

Author Bio

Herija C. Green

Herija is a graduate from California State University - San Marcos. He was a contributing writer and editor with KFFL.com

Author Bio

Matthew Wilson
Matt Wilson is a lifelong college and pro football fan who proudly touts the Michigan Wolverines and the Chicago Bears as his two favorite teams. Matt discovered fantasy football in 1999 and has been addicted to it ever since. His professional background includes a four-year stint as a news reporter for a Chicago-area radio station. Matt was sports director for his college television station at Northern Illinois. Seeking a new challenge, Matt joined KFFL in 2004.