New York Giants Fantasy Analysis - Week 18

January 4, 2008 @ 06:39:38

By Jack Douglas
Edited by Herija C. Green

New York Giants Fantasy Matchups - NFC Wild Card Playoff Game

Opponent: at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Giants (10-6), the fifth seed in the NFC this season, journey to Tampa Bay to take on the Buccaneers (9-7), the fourth seed, in this weekend's opening round of the playoffs. The Giants are coming off of their solid and inspiring gritty loss to the New England Patriots (16-0) last Saturday in the season finale. Despite losing, 38-35, the Giants looked impressive most of the evening and gave a good accounting of themselves. The hope is that their effort in that game will translate into a first-round victory this week against a Tampa Bay team that boasts one of the league's best defences and nemesis quarterback Jeff Garcia. To make that happen, the Giants must rely on their defense and the main offensive threats: quarterback Eli Manning, running back Brandon Jacobs and the suddenly healthy wide receiver Plaxico Burress. Last week, arguably all four fantasy players came up big for the Giants. It may help the Giants passing offense that the game will be in Tampa Bay, where the weather is predicted to be sunny and possibly as high as the mid-80s.

Quarterback

Table: Per-Game Statistics - Weeks 14-17

Player	G	Comp/G	Att/G	Pass Yds/G	Pass TDs/G	INTs/G	Rush Yds/G	Rush TDs/G	PH
Eli Manning	4	16	32	191.2	1.50	0.75	5.2	0.00	X

Even when the Patriots brought pressure last week, Manning looked pretty good. He threw for four touchdown passes and just one interception in an effort that saw him go 22-for-32 for 251 passing yards. Manning will need to be sharp this week if he expects to have a big fantasy game as the Bucs are one of the league's best at defending quarterbacks. Still, Manning looked very good last week and rates as a No. 1 level play this week.

Table: Opponent vs. Position

Team	G	Comp/G	Att/G	Pass Yds/G	Pass TDs/G	INTs/G	Rush Yds/G	Rush TDs/G
Buccaneers	4	14	25	135.0	2.00	1.00	0.00	0.00

Tampa Bay is very strong against opposing quarterbacks and should be a stern test for any team they meet in the playoffs. They like to bring lots of pressure and have the confidence in their defense to include safety blitzes. A strange statistic is that they are yielding two passing touchdowns per game despite their overall stinginess.

Running Back

Table: Per-Game Statistics - Weeks 14-17

Player	G	Util/G (%)	RZ Util/G (%)	In-5 Util/G	Rush Yds/G	Rush TDs/G	Rec/G	Rec Yds/G	Rec TDs/G	PH
Brandon Jacobs	4	27.25 (41.99)	2.50 (18.37)	0.00	103.0	0.50	3.00	22.8	0.25	N/A
Ahmad Bradshaw	3	6.33 (7.32)	2.67 (14.70)	0.33	53.0	0.33	0.33	0.3	0.00	N/A
Reuben Droughns	4	2.75 (4.24)	1.75 (12.86)	1.25	7.0	0.00	0.25	2.0	0.00	N/A

To hope to stay in the game and perhaps score an upset this week, the Giants will probably be relying on liberal amounts of plays to utilize the size, speed and overall ability of Jacobs. Despite injuries off and on most of the season, he still rushed for more than 1,000 yards, including the 67 rushing yards he had last week against the Patriots. If the Giants cannot get their passing game rolling early, look for possibly even more reliance on Jacobs as the Giants try to control the clock and bull their way to a victory. Jacobs is a No. 1 level play this week.

Bradshaw (leg), despite being a rookie, has been getting more work late in his first year though he was inactive last Saturday to rest a leg injury. He has shown speed and determination and helped solidify the Week 16 victory over the Buffalo Bills with his stirring 89-yard touchdown dash in the fourth quarter with the game still in doubt. He is a threat to take it to the house and should rate as a No. 2 level play this week.

Droughns is fast becoming the forgotten man in this offense. He is being utilized fewer than three times per game in the last month and frankly, should be on your fantasy bench this week.

Table: Opponent vs. Position

Team	G	Att/G	Rush Yds/G	Rush TDs/G	Rec/G	Rec Yds/G	Rec TDs/G
Buccaneers	4	25	110.8	0.50	4.00	30.0	0.25

Tampa Bay seems to have a run defense that bends without breaking too badly. Yes, they are giving up more than 100 rushing yards per game for the last four games, but they have also only given up two rushing touchdowns during that span. They do give up 30 passing yards and an occasional receiving touchdown to enemy running backs, so might be vulnerable to a screen pass to Jacobs or Bradshaw, assuming they hang onto the ball.

Wide Receiver

Table: Per-Game Statistics - Weeks 14-17

Player	G	Targets/G (%)	RZ Targets/G (%)	In-5 Targets/G	Rec/G	Rec Yds/G	Rec TDs/G	PH
Plaxico Burress	4	9.50 (14.64)	2.50 (18.37)	1.00	3.75	65.2	0.75	+
Amani Toomer	4	6.75 (10.40)	0.75 (5.51)	0.00	3.00	44.2	0.00	N/A
Sinorice Moss	2	5.50 (4.24)	1.50 (5.51)	0.00	3.50	40.5	0.00	N/A
Steven Smith	3	2.33 (2.70)	0.67 (3.67)	0.00	1.33	12.3	0.00	N/A

Burress has started to heal and looked good last week in the close loss to the Patriots. In that game, he caught four passes for 84 yards and two touchdowns. It was the kind of performance that makes fantasy owners very happy. If the Giants are to get their passing attack rolling this week, it seems likely they will target Burress often. Burress remains the only receiving threat currently on the Giants that truly frightens opposing defenses. Though a weak play against a tough Buccaneers defense, Burress nonetheless remains our No. 1 overall play this week.

Toomer has played like an adequate No. 2 wide receiver for the Giants but leaves a lot to be desired as a fantasy receiver. For instance, he has not scored in the last four games and his yardage is marginal at best. Toomer rates as a No. 2 or No. 3 level receiver this week and is a weak play.

Moss has made strides this year but not enough has been shown to warrant seeing him this week as anything other than a weak play as a No. 3 level wide receiver. Since he has not scored even one touchdown this season, it is difficult to foresee much production this weekend against the tough Tampa Bay pass defense for Moss.

Smith started strong, then spent much of the season sidelined with injuries and now has come back. In the last three games, he has shown some of the early-season promise that made him appear likely to replace Toomer down the road. For now, he must catch up and will likely play a much smaller role as the fourth wide receiver. He is a weak play best left on your bench this week.

Table: Opponent vs. Position

Team	G	Rec/G	Rec Yds/G	Rec TDs/G
Buccaneers	4	7.00	76.0	0.75

There is no real doubt that the Buccaneers have one of the strongest pass defenses in the league. They should be a tough test for the Giants and should have the support of many loud, raucous fans this week at home.

Tight End

Table: Per-Game Statistics - Weeks 14-17

Player	G	Targets/G (%)	RZ Targets/G (%)	In-5 Targets/G	Rec/G	Rec Yds/G	Rec TDs/G	PH
Kevin Boss	4	2.00 (3.08)	0.50 (3.67)	0.25	1.50	20.2	0.50	N/A
Michael Matthews	4	0.50 (0.77)	0.00 (0.00)	0.00	0.25	0.8	0.00	N/A

With the season-ending injury to tight end Jeremy Shockey (leg), the Giants have been pleased to learn that Boss can catch the ball. Last week in a high-pressure game with the Patriots, Boss caught four passes for 50 yards and a touchdown. The downside was this was all in the first half. If the Giants can protect Manning with the offensive line and if Boss can get open, he could have a good day this week against the Bucs. This week he rates as a No. 1 level tight end with a strong play. Considering what else is out there in the tight end department in these playoffs this first week, Boss looks like a fairly good gamble.

Matthews simply has not done enough to warrant a spot on your fantasy roster. If you have him, he should be benched.

Table: Opponent vs. Position

Team	G	Rec/G	Rec Yds/G	Rec TDs/G
Buccaneers	4	3.25	29.0	1.00

Though they have not given up a lot of yardage to the position in the last four games, they have yielded an average of one touchdown reception per game. It would seem that Boss might have a decent chance to score against this defense.

Place Kicker

Table: Per-Game Statistics - Weeks 14-17

Player	G	FG/G	FG Att/G	XP/G	XP Att/G	Kick Pts/G
Lawrence Tynes	4	1.25	1.50	3.00	3.00	6.8

Tynes is a low-end No. 1 level kicker with a weak play this weekend. Many believe this particular playoff game will be a low-scoring, defensive battle despite good weather. If that happens, it will probably hold down the scoring to the point of impacting the chances of Tynes to score.

Table: Opponent vs. Position

Team	G	FG/G	FG Att/G	XP/G	XP Att/G	Kick Pts/G
Buccaneers	4	0.50	0.50	2.75	2.75	4.2

Tampa Bay has been very good in the last four games against enemy place kickers. They have not given up many field goals, so this does not look like a good matchup for Tynes.

Defensive Team/Special Teams

Table: Per-Game Statistics - Weeks 14-17

Team	G	Off Pts Allowed/G	Net Yds Allowed/G	Sacks/G	INT/G	Fum Rec/G
Giants	4	23.5	312.2	2.25	0.75	0.50

The Giants have cooled off a little lately, but they still led the league in sacks this season with 53. Receiver Domenik Hixon created some excitement last week with a 74-yard kickoff return for a touchdown and is a threat to take it to the house every time he fields the ball. The Giants are a strong play as a No. 1 level defense this week.

Table: Opponent Offense vs. Defense

Team	G	Off Pts/G	Net Yds/G	Sacks Allowed/G	INT Thrown/G	Fum Lost/G
Buccaneers	4	20.2	331.8	3.50	0.75	0.75

With Garcia at the helm, the Buccaneers are a solid offense. As a seasoned quarterback, Garcia has limited mistakes and can move the offense down the field. Tampa Bay will also have the added advantage of being at home this weekend.

 

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Jack Douglas

Jack Douglas is an attorney and a freelance writer who has been playing fantasy football and baseball since 1991. He has played in many different leagues using different rules and has captured several championships. He has been a KFFL Contributor since 2000

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