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Jacksonville Jaguars Fantasy Analysis - Week 18

January 4, 2008 @ 06:37:24

By Ilan Mochari
Edited by Matthew Wilson

Jacksonville Jaguars Fantasy Matchups - AFC Wild Card Playoff Game

Opponent: at Pittsburgh Steelers

The Jacksonville Jaguars (11-5) visit the Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6) Saturday night in the first American Football Conference Wild Card game of the weekend. It's a rematch of a Week 15 clash between the two clubs played December 16 at Heinz Field, which was won 29-22 by the Jaguars. That game was tied 22-22 with less than six minutes to play, but the Jaguars scored the winning touchdown on a 12-yard dash by running back Fred Taylor with 1:57 remaining.

For the Jaguars, not much has changed since their Week 15 victory; their same 22 starters are expected to take the field. Key among those starters is Taylor, who rushed for 147 yards and one touchdown on 25 carries in Week 15. He closed out the regular season with some strong performances, leading the league with 130 rushing yards per game between Weeks 14-17. The Steelers surrendered 120.2 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs during that span, which ranks No. 25 in the league. That's a big reason why many observers consider the Steelers an underdog this week on their home field, despite their status as the higher seed.

What has changed for the Steelers? For one thing, they will be without running back Willie Parker (leg - Injured Reserve), who rushed for 100 yards on 14 carries in that Week 15 game. However, Parker's backup, running back Najeh Davenport, is a talented fill-in. In Week 16 against the St. Louis Rams (3-13), Davenport rushed for 123 yards and one touchdown on 24 carries, and amassed 44 receiving yards and one touchdown on two catches. Two serious injury concerns for the Steelers are at the offensive tackle positions, where starters Marvel Smith (back) and Max Starks (knee) have both been placed on Injured Reserve. Third-string offensive tackle Trai Essex is now slated to start at left tackle, while right guard Alan Faneca will move to right tackle with backup guard Chris Kemoeatu replacing Faneca at guard.

Quarterback

Table: Per-Game Statistics - Weeks 14-17

Player	G	Comp/G	Att/G	Pass Yds/G	Pass TDs/G	INTs/G	Rush Yds/G	Rush TDs/G	PH
David Garrard	3	16	29	208.7	2.33	0.67	11.7	0.33	+

Garrard threw 2.33 touchdown passes per game between Weeks 14-17. He tossed three against the Steelers in Week 15 with only one interception. Facing the same Steelers defense that allowed a league-worst 2.75 touchdown passes per game to opposing quarterbacks between Weeks 14-17, Garrard is a strong play as a No. 1 quarterback. He's a low-risk player with an advantageous matchup and should enjoy another strong performance against Pittsburgh.

Table: Opponent vs. Position

Team	G	Comp/G	Att/G	Pass Yds/G	Pass TDs/G	INTs/G	Rush Yds/G	Rush TDs/G
Steelers	4	22	37	250.5	2.75	0.75	8.8	0.00

The Steelers surrendered 250.5 passing yards per game between Weeks 14-17, but that figure is inflated because of quarterback Tom Brady's (New England Patriots) performance against them in Week 14 (399 yards passing). Garrard threw for only 197 yards (he completed 17 of his 33 passes) in Week 15, while quarterback Marc Bulger (St. Louis Rams) threw for 208 yards and three touchdowns against Pittsburgh in Week 16. Although the statistics suggest Garrard will throw a few touchdown passes, they also indicate - if you dig deeper - that he may not accumulate a lot of passing yardage.

Running Back

Table: Per-Game Statistics - Weeks 14-17

Player	G	Util/G (%)	RZ Util/G (%)	In-5 Util/G	Rush Yds/G	Rush TDs/G	Rec/G	Rec Yds/G	Rec TDs/G	PH
Fred Taylor	3	17.33 (19.26)	3.33 (19.55)	0.33	130.0	1.00	0.67	8.0	0.00	+
Maurice Jones-Drew	3	16.67 (18.52)	3.00 (17.60)	0.67	45.7	0.33	4.33	49.0	0.00	X
Greg Jones	4	8.25 (12.22)	2.00 (15.64)	0.50	20.8	0.00	1.25	6.8	0.25	+
LaBrandon Toefield	1	8.00 (2.96)	1.00 (1.96)	1.00	15.0	0.00	1.00	4.0	0.00	N/A

Both Taylor and Jones-Drew posted terrific numbers in the Week 15 game against the Steelers. Taylor (147 rushing yards, one touchdown) averaged 5.9 yards per rush, while Jones-Drew (69 rushing yards on 12 carries, 30 yards receiving on five catches) averaged 5.8 yards per rush. While Taylor led the league in rushing yards per game between Weeks 14-17, Jones-Drew led all National Football League running backs with 49 receiving yards per game during that same time frame. Taylor is a strong play as a No. 1 running back, while Jones-Drew is a strong play as a low-end No. 1 or a high-end No. 2 running back.

Jones played well in Week 17 against the Houston Texans (8-8), amassing 71 yards rushing on 14 carries with Taylor and Jones-Drew sitting out. However, you should consider Jones a decent play as just a low-end No. 2 or a high-end No. 3 running back. Jones' touches obviously will be limited with Taylor and Jones-Drew back on the field.

Toefield (ankle), for his part, is a weak play and should remain benched. He may not be active, as he is clearly the No. 4 running back in the Jaguars' pecking order. Toefield was active for only two games this season.

Table: Opponent vs. Position

Team	G	Att/G	Rush Yds/G	Rush TDs/G	Rec/G	Rec Yds/G	Rec TDs/G
Steelers	4	23.8	120.2	0.75	4.25	22.0	0.25

Although the Steelers allowed 120.2 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs between Weeks 14-17, they have not allowed many rushing touchdowns. In fact, the only runners to notch rushing scores against the Steelers in recent weeks - aside from Taylor - were running back Musa Smith (Baltimore Ravens) and running back Cory Ross (Baltimore Ravens) in Week 17. So while Jones-Drew and Taylor will have their chances to rack up yardage, it's possible that only one of them will reach the end zone.

Wide Receiver

Table: Per-Game Statistics - Weeks 14-17

Player	G	Targets/G (%)	RZ Targets/G (%)	In-5 Targets/G	Rec/G	Rec Yds/G	Rec TDs/G	PH
Reggie Williams	4	5.50 (8.15)	0.75 (5.87)	0.25	3.00	44.8	1.00	X
Dennis Northcutt	3	4.67 (5.19)	0.33 (1.96)	0.33	2.67	45.3	0.33	+
Ernest Wilford	4	6.50 (9.63)	1.50 (11.73)	0.50	3.50	35.0	0.75	-
Matt Jones	4	6.50 (9.63)	1.50 (11.73)	0.50	3.00	51.5	0.75	X

The touchdown that Williams scored last week against the Texans was his 10th on the season and his sixth in the last seven games. Williams also scored in Week 15 against the Steelers, which accounts for his strong player history against them. He is a No. 1 receiver and a strong play this weekend against a Steelers defense that allowed 196.2 receiving yards per game (ranking No. 29) and 2.50 receiving touchdowns per outing (ranking No. 32) to opposing wide outs between Weeks 14-17.

Northcutt caught four passes for 81 yards and one touchdown in the Week 15 game. Consider Northcutt a strong play as a No. 2 wide receiver for this contest.

Wilford (two catches, 22 yards, one touchdown) and M. Jones (two catches, 25 yards) did not exactly torch the Steelers in Week 15, but both played well last weekend in the Jaguars' 42-28 road loss to Houston. Playing with backup quarterback Quinn Gray, M. Jones caught eight passes for 138 yards and one touchdown, while Wilford caught six passes for 58 yards and two touchdowns. Against the Steelers this Saturday, consider Wilford a strong play as a No. 2 receiver. M. Jones is a strong play as a low-end No. 2 or a high-end No. 3 receiver.

Table: Opponent vs. Position

Team	G	Rec/G	Rec Yds/G	Rec TDs/G
Steelers	4	14.00	196.2	2.50

Although the statistics suggest that Jacksonville's receivers will have great games this weekend, remember that the yardage numbers allowed to the position by Pittsburgh during the last four weeks are inflated because of the huge yardage numbers that the New England receivers amassed in Week 14. In Week 15, the Jacksonville wide outs had only 131 receiving yards against the Steelers with Northcutt amassing 81 of those yards. The Jaguars receivers are still strong plays, but we think the odds are against any of them topping the 100-yards receiving mark.

Tight End

Table: Per-Game Statistics - Weeks 14-17

Player	G	Targets/G (%)	RZ Targets/G (%)	In-5 Targets/G	Rec/G	Rec Yds/G	Rec TDs/G	PH
Marcedes Lewis	4	2.75 (4.07)	0.75 (5.87)	0.25	1.25	15.8	0.00	-
Richard Angulo	4	1.75 (2.59)	0.25 (1.96)	0.00	1.50	17.5	0.25	N/A
Isaac Smolko	4	0.50 (0.74)	0.25 (1.96)	0.25	0.25	1.3	0.00	N/A

Lewis has not caught a pass in the past two weeks. In Week 15 against Pittsburgh, he caught two passes for 38 yards, which accounts for his negative history against them. None of this should inspire you to start Lewis against the Steelers. He is a weak play as a marginal No. 1 tight end this weekend.

Angulo and Smolko have combined for just nine catches this season. Angulo is a weak play as a borderline No. 1 tight end and preferably should remain benched. Smolko has no fantasy value.

Table: Opponent vs. Position

Team	G	Rec/G	Rec Yds/G	Rec TDs/G
Steelers	4	3.25	32.2	0.00

The last tight end to score against the Steelers was tight end Chris Baker (New York Jets) in Week 11, which does not bode well for Lewis or any of the Jacksonville tight ends. Lewis, Angulo and Smolko likely will not bolster their usual poor yardage showings by scoring touchdowns.

Place Kicker

Table: Per-Game Statistics - Weeks 14-17

Team	G	FG/G	FG Att/G	XP/G	XP Att/G	Kick Pts/G
Josh Scobee	4	1.00	1.00	4.25	4.50	7.3

Last week, Scobee went four-for-four on extra point tries and did not attempt a field goal. In Week 16, Scobee went seven-for-seven on extra point tries and did not attempt a field goal. Notice a pattern? The Jaguars offense has been extremely efficient inside the red zone since Week 14, which has obviously limited Scobee's field goal opportunities. Moreover, in Week 15 against the Steelers, Scobee had only five actual kicking points, successfully hitting a 36-yard field goal attempt and two of his three extra point attempts. In short, he is a decent option, but you can probably find a better option among the eight place kickers who are starting this weekend. Scobee is a strong play as a marginal No. 1 place kicker against the Steelers.

Table: Opponent vs. Position

Team	G	FG/G	FG Att/G	XP/G	XP Att/G	Kick Pts/G
Steelers	4	1.50	1.75	2.75	3.00	7.2

Pittsburgh, during the last four weeks, has given up 7.2 actual kicking points per contest, which ranks in the bottom-third of the league. However, Scobee ranks last in field goal attempts per game in that same time span. He won't get shut out this week, but it's unlikely that he will crack the double-digit scoring mark.

Defensive Team/Special Teams

Table: Per-Game Statistics - Weeks 14-17

Team	G	Off Pts Allowed/G	Net Yds Allowed/G	Sacks/G	INT/G	Fum Rec/G
Jaguars	4	17.2	217.8	2.75	1.25	0.50

Despite allowing 290 total yards in their Week 16 loss to the Texans, the Jaguars still led the league in fewest total yards allowed per game to opposing offenses between Weeks 14-17. In Week 15, the Jaguars allowed 217 total yards to the Steelers while notching five sacks and forcing two fumbles. With the Steelers playing backups at running back, left tackle and right guard, there is strong reason to believe the Jaguars will wreak havoc on the Steelers offense again. The Jacksonville defense is a solid play as a No. 1 unit this weekend.

Table: Opponent Offense vs. Defense

Team	G	Off Pts/G	Net Yds/G	Sacks Allowed/G	INT Thrown/G	Fum Lost/G
Steelers	4	22.2	313.8	3.00	0.50	0.50

Although he was sacked five times by the Jaguars in Week 15, quarterback Ben Roethlisberger still threw three touchdown passes against them with no interceptions. If Davenport can provide the Steelers with a steady rushing game, then it is likely that the Steelers will match their solid per-game scoring and yardage averages in the above table. The 22.2 points per game scored by the Steelers ranked 11th in the league. The Steelers offense scored 22 points against Jacksonville in Week 15 and 34 points against the Rams in Week 16. The Jaguars defense remains a safe bet to record sacks, but it is unlikely they will prevent the Steelers from scoring a few touchdowns. You should still feel safe about starting the Jaguars defense, but don't expect this unit to hold the Steelers to single-digit scoring.