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Tampa Bay Buccaneers Fantasy Analysis - Week 18

January 4, 2008 @ 06:27:03

By Buck Davidson
Edited by Herija C. Green

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Fantasy Matchups - NFC Wild Card Playoff Game

Opponent: vs. New York Giants

First things first: The Buccaneers (9-7) did indeed drop a 31-23 decision to the horrendous Carolina Panthers last week, but hold on a second. Truth be told, the Bucs rested all of their star players and benched many of their starters for most of the game. The Bucs backups played pretty well against Carolina's first-line unit, but in the end the Panthers prevailed, handing the Bucs their second straight setback as they head into the 2007 playoffs. In the big picture, the Bucs stayed by-and-large healthy in this game, though starting guard Arron Sears (ankle) did limp off the field during the game with what's being described as a minor sprain. The rookie should be ready to roll this week, when the Bucs host the Giants (10-6) in a first-round playoff game at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa. The Giants lost to the New England Patriots, 38-35, last week in a tough and emotional battle at the Meadowlands, and may still be feeling the effects of their tussle with the perfect Pats. The Giants have something of a "Jekyll and Hyde" aspect to them, and it may bode well for the Bucs' hopes that the "Dr. Jekyll" version of the G-Men showed up against the Pats last week. If the Giants don their Mr. Hyde togs and suffer another of their well-documented collapses this week, the Bucs will be all too willing to take full advantage.

From a fantasy standpoint, there are some opportunities to be seized and situations to be avoided as the NFL's second season dawns. Though neither the Bucs nor Giants are an offensive juggernaut, they both have enough weapons at their disposal - on both sides of the ball - to be worth your fantasy while. Let's take a look at the matchup and see if we can glean anything of value to your fantasy cause.

Quarterback

Table: Per-Game Statistics - Weeks 14-17

Player	G	Comp/G	Att/G	Pass Yds/G	Pass TDs/G	INTs/G	Rush Yds/G	Rush TDs/G	PH
Jeff Garcia	2	14	22	152.5	1.00	0.50	0.0	0.00	N/A

Garcia (back) was inactive against Carolina, but he should be at full speed this week against New York. The veteran signal caller had a solid 2007 season and is a vital element in the Buccaneers offensive scheme. That being said, Garcia is only a serviceable starter as a low-end No. 1 fantasy quarterback this week against the Giants.

Table: Opponent vs. Position

Team	G	Comp/G	Att/G	Pass Yds/G	Pass TDs/G	INTs/G	Rush Yds/G	Rush TDs/G
Giants	4	17	31	215.5	1.25	0.75	3.0	0.00

The Giants have been solid against opposing quarterbacks recently - and remember that they squared off against Patriots quarterback Tom Brady and Company last week. Garcia is not of that timber, so he figures to find the going tough against the Giants this Sunday.

Running Back

Table: Per-Game Statistics - Weeks 14-17

Player	G	Util/G (%)	RZ Util/G (%)	In-5 Util/G	Rush Yds/G	Rush TDs/G	Rec/G	Rec Yds/G	Rec TDs/G	PH
Earnest Graham	3	21.00 (23.14)	4.33 (34.32)	1.33	53.7	1.00	4.33	32.0	0.00	N/A
Michael Bennett	4	8.75 (12.86)	1.75 (18.48)	1.00	29.5	0.00	1.00	10.5	0.25	N/A
Michael Pittman	3	12.67 (13.96)	1.67 (13.20)	0.33	25.0	0.00	3.67	24.7	0.00	N/A
Kenneth Darby	1	5.00 (1.84)	0.00 (0.00)	0.00	9.0	0.00	2.00	16.0	0.00	N/A

Graham was inactive against Carolina as the Bucs sought to protect their feature back from injury. He should be at full-tilt this week, though, and the Bucs will likely need everything he can give them if they're to best the Giants. New York has shown they can be run upon, and Graham should get every opportunity to do just that this week. Consider him a strong play as your No. 1 fantasy running back.

Bennett got his biggest workload as a Buccaneer last week and responded well, rushing 15 times for 39 yards and catching two passes for 28 yards and a touchdown. Bennett's speed makes him a great change of pace back, but we don't think he'll get the ball enough this week to warrant a fantasy play as a No. 1 running back. He just might get enough looks to be a good No. 2 or No. 3 running back, though, so consider him a strong play in that regard.

Pittman (ankle) saw very limited duty last week, rushing just four times for 12 yards and catching one pass for zero yards. Pittman projects as Graham's primary backup, and he may get enough touches against the Giants to warrant consideration as a lower-end option. If you've got Pittman on your roster, he's a strong play as a No. 2 or No. 3 fantasy running back.

Darby carried twice for nine yards and hauled in two passes for 16 yards. Darby was simply a fill-in last week and has no fantasy value going forward. He is a weak play and should stay on your bench.

Table: Opponent vs. Position

Team	G	Att/G	Rush Yds/G	Rush TDs/G	Rec/G	Rec Yds/G	Rec TDs/G
Giants	4	25.8	109.5	1.25	4.50	43.8	0.25

The Giants give up a fair amount of real estate to opposing running backs, and the Bucs figure to try and pound the ball into line early and often this week. Graham should get a heavy workload, with Bennett and Pittman also getting the rock on occasion.

Wide Receiver

Table: Per-Game Statistics - Weeks 14-17

Player	G	Targets/G (%)	RZ Targets/G (%)	In-5 Targets/G	Rec/G	Rec Yds/G	Rec TDs/G	PH
Joey Galloway	3	6.00 (6.61)	0.67 (5.28)	0.00	2.67	41.0	0.00	N/A
Ike Hilliard	3	4.00 (4.41)	0.00 (0.00)	0.00	2.33	29.0	0.00	N/A
Michael Clayton	4	7.25 (10.65)	0.25 (5.28)	0.00	4.00	48.0	0.00	-
Chad Lucas	1	6.00 (2.20)	0.00 (0.00)	0.00	5.00	82.0	0.00	N/A

Galloway (shoulder) was inactive against Carolina, but his sojourn reportedly had nothing to do with the health of his bum shoulder - rather it was a "team decision." The Bucs are being very hush-hush about Galloway's health, but if he's out there this Sunday the speedster remains the Bucs' top aerial threat. Consider Galloway a strong play against the Giants, but keep an eye on his health status before you pull the trigger. If no bad news comes out, Galloway is a good choice as your No. 2 or No. 3 fantasy wideout.

Hilliard (back) also watched the game from the inactive list, as the Bucs wanted to give him another week to rest before facing the Giants this week. The veteran wideout doesn't score a lot, but he has been known to rack up the receptions and a modest yardage total working underneath the coverage. We think Hilliard is a strong play as a No. 3 fantasy wideout this week.

Clayton had his week to shine against Carolina, and he responded with a thoroughly pedestrian five catches for 60 yards. Clayton's monster rookie season now seems a distant memory, but he's still a strong play as a No. 2 or No. 3 fantasy wideout this week - especially if Galloway can't make it onto the field.

Lucas came out of nowhere to snag five receptions for 82 yards against Carolina. Lucas was promoted from the practice squad to replace wide receiver Maurice Stovall (arm), who is on Injured Reserve. We feel that Lucas' outburst was a one-week wonder, and that he's not worth a pickup at this point.

Table: Opponent vs. Position

Team	G	Rec/G	Rec Yds/G	Rec TDs/G
Giants	4	10.00	136.2	0.75

The Giants have been decent against opposing wideouts lately, but we think the Bucs receivers should find enough room to put up serviceable fantasy numbers. Be ready to grab Clayton if Galloway can't go this week.

Tight End

Table: Per-Game Statistics - Weeks 14-17

Player	G	Targets/G (%)	RZ Targets/G (%)	In-5 Targets/G	Rec/G	Rec Yds/G	Rec TDs/G	PH
Alex Smith	4	4.50 (6.61)	0.50 (5.28)	0.50	2.25	34.0	0.00	N/A
Jerramy Stevens	3	3.00 (3.31)	0.33 (2.64)	0.33	2.67	34.3	1.00	N/A
Anthony Becht	4	1.00 (1.47)	0.50 (5.28)	0.50	1.00	4.8	0.25	N/A

Smith didn't have much of a day against Carolina, catching only one pass for 18 yards. Smith's value has taken a hit with the improved play of Stevens, and he may be in danger of losing looks to his big and athletic running mate. Even with that, Smith is a decent choice as your No. 1 fantasy tight end this week.

Stevens had a decent day last week, grabbing four passes for 30 yards and a touchdown - his third score in the past two weeks. Stevens is beginning to assert himself in the Tampa Bay scheme, and he may well become the team's top option at tight end before long. As it stands, we think Stevens is a sound choice as your No. 1 tight end this week.

Becht caught one pass for two yards against Carolina, but the Bucs' blocking tight end doesn't have much fantasy value. He's a weak play against New York this week and should not be on your fantasy roster.

Table: Opponent vs. Position

Team	G	Rec/G	Rec Yds/G	Rec TDs/G
Giants	4	2.75	35.5	0.25

The Giants have been tough against opposing tight ends lately, but with the Bucs looking to their tight ends as much as they have recently we think a decent day could be in store for one or both of them. The problem may be trying to identify which of the Bucs' tight ends will win favor this week.

Place Kicker

Table: Per-Game Statistics - Weeks 14-17

Player	G	FG/G	FG Att/G	XP Att/G	XP/G	Kick Pts/G
Matt Bryant	4	2.00	2.00	2.25	2.25	8.2

Bryant had a great day against Carolina, drilling all three of his field goal attempts and both of his extra-point tries. The Bucs booter has quietly put together a solid season, and we like his fantasy prospects this week as well. Don't forget that Bryant will be kicking in what figures to be good weather in Tampa, so factor that into your decision as well. Consider Bryant a great choice as your kicker this week, and he's a strong play to boot.

Table: Opponent vs. Position

Team	G	FG/G	FG Att/G	XP Att/G	XP/G	Kick Pts/G
Giants	4	2.00	2.25	2.00	2.00	8.0

The Giants have yielded some strong numbers to opposing place kickers in recent weeks, and that bodes well for Bryant. The Bucs have turned to Bryant a lot lately - too often in fact - and we don't think that's likely to change this Sunday.

Defensive Team/Special Teams

Table: Per-Game Statistics - Weeks 14-17

Team	G	Off Pts Allowed/G	Net Yds Allowed/G	Sacks/G	INT/G	Fum Rec/G
Buccaneers	4	19.2	238.0	1.75	1.00	1.25

The Bucs defense was missing many of its key components against Carolina, and it showed: Tampa Bay allowed 349 net offensive yards and 31 offensive points to the woeful Panthers offense. The Bucs only managed one sack, one interception and one fumble recovery en route to one of their worst efforts of the year. Forget about last week, though: the Bucs are rested and ready to harass the Giants offense - an offense that waged a 60-minute war against New England in Week 17. Look for Tampa Bay to try to rattle Giants quarterback Eli Manning, while guarding against the big downfield throw to wideout Plaxico Burress (ankle). The Giants have some offensive weapons, but we believe the Bucs will post a decent showing against New York come Sunday. The Bucs are a good mid-level choice as your No. 1 fantasy defense this week.

Table: Opponent Offense vs. Defense

Team	G	Off Pts/G	Net Yds/G	Sacks Allowed/G	INT Thrown/G	Fum Lost/G
Giants	4	20.2	331.5	1.75	0.75	1.25

The Giants offense features the much-maligned Manning at the quarterback helm, with Burress his top target. One target Manning won't have at his disposal is tight end Jeremy Shockey (leg), who is out for the season with a fractured fibula. Running back Brandon Jacobs handles the ground pounding, and he figures to see plenty of reps this week as the G-Men try to bully the Bucs. The Giants may have to limit their mistakes, control the football and keep the Bucs pass rush away from Manning if they hope to win the day.

Author Bio

Buck Davidson

Buck Davidson is a lifelong (the team's, not his) Tampa Bay Buccaneers fan who has been involved in fantasy sports since 1992....and been watching sports since his eyes first focused. He's far too skinny and slow to have ever played the game on a serious level, but enjoyed a notable and prosperous sandlot QB career until, at last, advancing years and condominium construction brought an end to both his NFL aspirations and the Florida sandlots. He has been a KFFL contributor since 2004.