Matchups to Exploit - Week 18
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January 3, 2008 @ 23:44:27
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By Hot off the Wire Network Contributors
Edited by Nicholas Minnix
Redskins QB Todd Collins vs. Seahawks pass defense
Collins has taken over for injured Jason Campbell (knee) and been very effective during the Redskins' four-game winning streak. That followed a four-game losing streak with Campbell at the helm. Collins has a terrific crew of receivers with Santana Moss, Antwaan Randle El, Keenan McCardell and James Thrash. However, the Seahawks should be up to the task. They have two great sackers in defensive end Patrick Kerney (14.5) and linebacker Julian Peterson (nine). Plus, the Seahawks gave up the fewest touchdown passes (15) of any team in the NFL, and that includes four in the meaningless loss the Atlanta Falcons Sunday. Cornerback Marcus Trufant is going to the Pro Bowl, and some think strong safety Deon Grant should be. Brian Russell directs traffic as the free safety and is as well-prepared as any player in the league, while second-year corner Kelly Jennings continues to grow.
Redskins OT Chris Samuels vs. Seahawks DE Darryl Tapp
Samuels earned his fifth Pro Bowl nod this season, performing admirably despite missing all of training camp with a sprained MCL and adjusting to new left guard Pete Kendall. This season, Samuels was called for only four penalties (all false starts) while not missing a snap. Three penalties were declined. Tapp is in his second year after starring at Virginia Tech. He has moved into the starting lineup and is third on the team in sacks (seven), second in quarterback hits (19) and tied for fourth in pass breakups (nine). At 6-foot-1, 270 pounds, Tapp doesn't have ideal size for an end, but he uses his quickness well. Crowd noise will be a factor for Samuels. Opponents have a league-high 68 false start penalties at Qwest Field since 2005. In the teams' playoff game two years ago, the Redskins had two false starts. If Samuels can hear the snap count, he should be able to handle Tapp one on one.
Seahawks RBs Shaun Alexander and Maurice Morris vs. Redskins run defense
The Seahawks had their best rushing games of the season the past two weeks, with 144 yards against the Baltimore Ravens Dec. 23 and 167 yards Sunday at Atlanta. But they've had only two 100-yard games all season (both from Alexander) and none since the third week of the season. Alexander (rib) added a bruised rib to his cadre of injuries (cracked wrist and strained knee), while Morris was particularly effective with 91 yards on 13 carries Sunday. Most of the question, however, is at the feet of an offensive line that has been woefully ineffective run blocking all season, to the point that they became a pass-first team.
Seahawks WR Bobby Engram vs. Redskins CB Shawn Springs
Springs has really elevated his game in the last month. He intercepted a combined two passes in 2005-06, but he has four interceptions in the last four games. Springs' play has allowed defensive coordinator Gregg Williams to use one safety in center field to help on deep passes. Springs has 70 tackles and a team-high 16 pass breakups. Engram is having his best season. He finished the regular season with career highs in receptions (94) and yards (1,147) and tied his career mark with six touchdowns. Engram played all 16 games for the first time in four seasons. It's important for Springs to keep Engram in check because the Redskins could have their hands full with wideouts Nate Burleson, D.J. Hackett and, possibly, Deion Branch (calf). Look for the Redskins to play more Cover 2 than they have in the last three games.
Jaguars QB David Garrard vs. Steelers secondary
In a Dec. 16 meeting with Pittsburgh, Garrard directed an offense that dissected the Steelers' No. 1-ranked total defense (currently 266.4 yards allowed per game) to the tune of 421 yards. Garrard continues to play at a peak level. The Steelers secondary is hurting, with starting safety Troy Polamalu (knee) and cornerback Deshea Townsend (foot), along with two backups in the secondary, hobbled by injuries. Garrard has thrown an interception in three of his last four games after going 11 straight games without a pick. He has thrown for 18 touchdowns and has a season-long passing rating of 102.2. Polamalu is the key to Pittsburgh's defense. If he's at less than 100 percent, the Steelers will be minus one of their best tacklers, someone that comes up in a hurry to help stop opposing team's runs.
Jaguars RBs Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew vs. Steelers run defense
The Jaguars' running back duo combined for 216 rushing yards in the first meeting between the two teams. Neither could be stopped, as Taylor averaged 5.8 yards per carry and Jones-Drew was at 5.9 per attempt. The 216 yards was the highest total that they had combined for in a game this year, and it helped them move into the NFL's No. 2 spot for net rushing yardage by two teammates. Taylor is running as well as he did in his younger days and has a current streak of five games with more 100 yards rushing. Steeler linebackers James Farrior, Clark Haggans, Larry Foote and James Harrison lead the NFL's No. 2-ranked run defense. However, the defensive unit is still smarting after the Jaguars' 224-yard effort in the first meeting. Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin has said stopping the Jaguars' running game is a matter of properly filling the gaps and tackling better. With the game on the line and the score tied at 22, the Jaguars moved 73 yards in eight plays and less than four minutes in the fourth quarter, scoring on a 12-yard run by Taylor, who ran into the end zone virtually untouched. It may even be a faster track at Heinz Field Saturday night - there is no precipitation in the weather forecast. Nothing else has changed for the better for the Steelers, who are still without their top run stopper, defensive end Aaron Smith (arm), who is out for the season.
Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger vs. Jaguars secondary
While Roethlisberger threw for three touchdowns in the Steelers' loss to the Jaguars several weeks ago, he connected on less than 50 percent of his 33 attempts and finished with just 146 yards. With the season-ending injury to running back Willie Parker (leg), Roethlisberger may have to have a big game in order for the Steelers to prevail. In the past month, the Jaguars secondary may have played its best ball of the season. The group has allowed 99, 106, 105 and 120 net passing yards in its last four games. Other than the three scoring passes thrown by Roethlisberger, the only other scoring tosses against the Jaguars secondary in the last four games were a pair of two-yard touchdown passes - one by the Oakland Raiders, one by the Houston Texans.
Steelers WR Hines Ward vs. Jaguars CBs Rashean Mathis and Brian Williams
Ward has had a couple big games against the Jaguars, but he didn't in the first meeting this year. He had just four catches for a total of 31 yards, 12 of which came on a fourth quarter rally in which Pittsburgh scored twice to tie the game at 28. Ward will be covered by Williams much of the time, as he was last game. Williams is often overshadowed by the Pro Bowler Mathis, but Williams has had a solid year. The team has picked off a franchise record-tying 20 passes and has had just three games (including the earlier Pittsburgh contest) in which it did not record at least one pick in a game.
Steelers offensive line vs. Jaguars pass rush
This may not be the sexiest matchup of the NFL's wild-card weekend, but it is the most important as far as the Steelers offense is concerned. The Steelers cannot put up big numbers and, thus, can't win, if they don't protect their best player - Roethlisberger. The chances of keeping Roethlisberger upright aren't good, though, because the Steelers are down to their third-string left tackle, with Marvel Smith (back) and Max Starks (knee) out. Trai Essex, who has played very little in his first three seasons, may start at left tackle. The Steelers may also move Pro Bowl left guard Alan Faneca to left tackle and let reserve Chris Kemoeatu, a disappointment in his first two seasons, play left guard. If they do that, it weakens two positions, and it was a disaster in 2003 when the team most recently tried it. Three weeks ago, when the Steelers' offensive line was healthier, the Jaguars sacked Roethlisberger five times - without much blitzing. Jacksonville defensive ends Paul Spicer (7.5 sacks), Reggie Hayward (3.5) and Bobby McCray (three), along with defensive tackle Rob Meier (four), could have the game of their lives this time.
Giants QB Eli Manning vs. Buccaneers CB Ronde Barber
Manning comes off his best statistical passing game of the year, having compiled a 118.6 passer rating by going 22-for-32 passing for 251 yards and four touchdowns. He proved with his fourth quarter interception against the New England Patriots that he will still make the tough mistake, and he has thrown three picks in his last two games. That is where Barber comes in. He's one of the best cover corners in the league. People throw away from him now, but this season he still had two interceptions, one of which he returned 29 yards for a touchdown. The weather is predicted to be 75 and sunny, which means Manning should be able to throw the ball without other worries from the elements.
Buccaneers QB Jeff Garcia vs. Giants pass defense
The Giants love to blitz, and they can really bring the pressure against a quarterback. You have to be very smart and experienced or really on your game to beat them; Garcia has the two parts of that equation licked. Garcia has beaten the Giants in two of their last three playoff appearances - against the San Francisco 49ers (2002) and Philadelphia Eagles (2006), largely because of the plays he makes with his legs. The Giants must pressure him but contain him in the pocket. Defensive ends Osi Umenyiora and Michael Strahan must be sure not to overpursue, or Garcia will skirt the corners for major gains. He usually does an excellent job of getting the ball out against the rush. Garcia can help to wear the Giants down in the Tampa Bay heat by making them run after him all day, and he can frustrate them by hitting his hot reads for big gains downfield. He's a smart quarterback, so the Giants may not blitz as much as usual for fear of him finding either wide receiver Joey Galloway or wideout Ike Hilliard in the holes left empty by blitzers. Benefiting the Giants is that Garcia hasn't played for a game and a half, so he might be somewhat rusty. Still, he finished third among NFC passers in quarterback rating, with 13 touchdowns against only four interceptions and a 63.9 percent completion rate.
Buccaneers RB Earnest Graham vs. Giants defense
Graham got the start once Cadillac Williams (knee) went down for the season early on. Graham responded with 10 touchdowns and 898 yards rushing. He averaged 4.0 yards per carry. Graham is a powerful runner that does a good job of breaking tackles and gaining yards after initial contact. He usually doesn't make his first move until he is past the line of scrimmage, so it's often left to linebackers and defensive backs to make the tackle against him. The Giants are a little beat up at safety, so look for the Bucs to run Graham through the middle, where he'll force the safeties to come up and fill. If he can beat the safety with his speed, maneuverability or power, he could be in for a big day. At 5-foot-9, 225 pounds, most of Graham's work comes between the tackles, but he can also catch the ball out of the backfield. Giants linebacker Antonio Pierce and the defensive line are going to have to get good penetration to stop him. Pierce finished the season with a team-high 116 tackles and comes off the game against the Patriots in which he had seven tackles as the Giants shut down running back Laurence Maroney.
Titans RB LenDale White vs. Chargers LB Stephen Cooper
This season, White posted five 100-yard games, including one against the Chargers in Week 14 when he rushed for 113 yards. He's averaging 3.7 yards per carry. The Titans want to turn Sunday's game into another physical one against the Chargers. Cooper leads San Diego with 108 tackles and is part of a defense that allowed 4.1 yards per carry during the regular season.
Chargers RB LaDainian Tomlinson vs. Titans LBs Keith Bulluck and David Thornton
Tomlinson is one of the most dangerous backs in the NFL, and he has averaged 5.9 yards per carry in three previous matchups with the Titans. In Week 14, Tomlinson rushed for 146 yards, including a 16-yard touchdown run that won the game in overtime. It will take a team effort to stop Tomlinson, although Tennessee's outside linebackers, Bulluck and Thornton, will be responsible for protecting the edge and not letting him break into the open field.
Chargers WR Chris Chambers vs. Titans secondary
Chambers added a dimension to an offense that was struggling to throw the ball early in the season. He has proven to be a big upgrade over rookie receiver Craig Davis by catching 35 passes for 555 yards and four touchdowns after his acquisition. Despite those numbers, he didn't come close to revolutionizing the offense, not when the unit finished just 26th in the NFL in passing. Tennessee cornerbacks Nick Harper (three interceptions) and Cortland Finnegan (one interception) will be paying close attention to Chambers all afternoon long.
Chargers offensive line vs. Titans DT Albert Haynesworth and DE Kyle Vanden Bosch
The Chargers had trouble dealing with Haynesworth and Vanden Bosch during last month's game in Tennessee. Both players spent ample time in the Chargers' backfield, with Vanden Bosch recording three sacks and Haynesworth notching one. The Chargers had just three points in the first three quarters before left tackle Marcus McNeill began faring better against Vanden Bosch (12.5 sacks) and before Haynesworth (six sacks) tired. San Diego scored 20 straight points once the interior of the line upped its level of play. The battle in the trenches will decide how well Tomlinson (1,474 rushing yards) and quarterback Philip Rivers (3,152 passing yards) fare against the Titans' fifth-ranked defense.
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