Z - Playoff Predictions

Playoff Grid: KFFL

January 4, 2008 @ 08:12:23

American Football Conference - Wild Card Round

Jacksonville Jaguars (No. 5) at Pittsburgh Steelers (No. 4)

The Jaguars travel to Pittsburgh for the second time in less than a month this Saturday. The Jags beat the Steelers 29-22 at Heinz Field in a game that featured Jacksonville rushing for 224 yards on the Steelers' vaunted run defense. Jaguars running back Fred Taylor posted the most yards on the ground by one player against the Steelers this season by totaling 143 and a touchdown. The Steelers have since lost defensive end Aaron Smith (biceps) for the season, severely weakening their No. 3 run defense.

Keys to Victory: Running the football. The Jaguars have shown that they can do it, and while the Steelers live by the run, they are going to be without tailback Willie Parker (leg), who was lost for the season with a broken leg. As with most games, winning the turnover battle is arguably the biggest key to a victory. Jaguars quarterback David Garrard has been nothing short of superb all season with his ball control, turning over the ball just five total times all season! Unless Pittsburgh running back Najeh Davenport comes up with a career effort, the chances of Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger carrying the team to victory seem low if Jacksonville can focus solely on stopping him.

Key Statistics

Jacksonville boasts the No. 2-ranked rushing offense versus Pittsburgh's No. 3-ranked, Aaron Smith-less run defense.
The Steelers are 7-1 at Heinz Field, and their only loss came to the Jaguars in Week 15.

Projected Winner: The Jaguars likely win another tough battle on enemy soil. Even though the teams match up quite well on paper, the Jaguars have played much better football down the stretch. The Steelers are too banged up and have lost one of their best run-stuffers in Smith, so what Jacksonville does best will likely be their strongest suit once again. With the Steelers laying down in several contests that should have been much easier than this one is expected to be, look for Jacksonville to advance.

Tennessee Titans (No. 6) at San Diego Chargers (No. 3)

Much like the Jaguars-Steelers matchup, we have another rematch of teams that played each other within the past month. The Titans hosted the Chargers in Week 14, ultimately losing a hard-fought battle 23-17 in overtime. The Bolts rallied with 20 unanswered points to win on a 16-yard LaDainian Tomlinson touchdown run. One of the underlying storylines to follow is from the situation in which San Diego strongside linebacker Shawne Merriman accused Titans head coach Jeff Fisher of ordering a hit against him with what was a legal crackback block that sprained Merriman's knee. It seems like two sides have let bygones be bygones since the incident, but you can bet Merriman will be ready to knock Titans quarterback Vince Young (quadriceps) out of the game if given the chance.

Keys to Victory: For the Titans, we offer one name: Albert Haynesworth (hamstring). For the Chargers, we offer one longer name: LaDainian Tomlinson. Haynesworth's hamstring injury has certainly hampered the defensive tackle's production and effectiveness in the run-stopping game. Being no stranger to injury, he suffered a hamstring injury in Week 9 that forced him to miss the next three games. Without him in the lineup from Weeks 10-13, the Titans' run defense surrendered a league-worst 149.8 yards per game after giving up a league-best 66.0 yards per game in the first nine weeks of the season.

Key Statistics

The Titans are even in the plus-minus turnover differential, while the Chargers are plus-13 on the year.
The Chargers own the No. 7 rushing offense versus the Titans' No. 5-ranked rushing defense.

Projected Winner: San Diego was possibly a little lucky to win the last meeting between the two teams, but this game should be a different story. With Young banged up, Haynesworth still sore and this game being in San Diego, look for the Chargers to try to set the tone early. Expect a healthy dosage of Tomlinson, who went for 146 rushing yards and a score in their last meeting. LT has hit his stride late in the season, unlike years past. In his final five games, Tomlinson rushed for 2.1 more yards per carry than he did in the previous 11 outings and rattled off four straight 100-yard games. The Chargers will no doubt want a chance to avenge last year's playoff meltdown to the New England Patriots, so there is some motivation here. Arguably their biggest motivation is to get Norv Turner his first playoff win as an NFL head coach.

National Football Conference - Wild Card Round

New York Giants (No. 5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (No. 4)

After giving the New England Patriots all they could handle in Week 17, the Giants carry some confidence and momentum into the Wild Card Round. The same can't be said for the Bucs, who lost three of their final four regular season contests. Tampa Bay forged on despite injuries to key veterans on offense, most notably quarterback Jeff Garcia (back), who missed a couple of games. Garcia and Co. are now healthy, for the most part, but will a layoff hurt? The Giants, meanwhile, may be without center Shaun O'Hara (knee) as well as a couple of other key defensive components. Can Tom Coughlin, 0-for-2 in previous chances, get his first playoff victory as Giants head coach?

Keys to Victory: For New York to win, quarterback Eli Manning must deliver a nearly mistake-free performance similar to his effort against the Pats in terms of efficiency (22-for-32, 251 yards, four touchdowns and one interception). From Week 12 through Week 16, Manning completed only 45.4 percent of his throws for an average of 196.4 yards and 0.80 touchdowns, with 1.60 interceptions, per game. The Bucs must bounce back from lackluster efforts in recent weeks. To keep New York off-balance, Tampa Bay may initially look to rely on running back Earnest Graham (ankle). Head coach Jon Gruden needs to keep the Giants (top-ranked pass rush, 53 sacks) from pinning their ears back and coming after Garcia, who turned the ball over only six times this year.

Key Statistics

This season the Giants committed 34 turnovers on offense (eight in the last four weeks), while the Buccaneers recorded 34 on defense (nine in the last four weeks).
The Giants finished 16th in the league in offense, while Tampa Bay boasts the second-ranked defense in the NFL.

Projected Winner: Tampa Bay relies on a lot of young players, particularly on the offensive line, but they also have a lot of players with playoff experience. The Giants exerted a ton of effort to compete with New England. They may be too drained and banged-up to lay it all on the line two weeks in a row. Garcia is 2-0 in the playoffs against the Giants - in 2002 he led the San Francisco 49ers to a win, and last season he helped the Philadelphia Eagles conquer New York. This year he should make it 3-0.

Washington Redskins (No. 6) at Seattle Seahawks (No. 3)

Washington was victorious in its final four regular season games to stake its claim to the sixth and final NFC playoff spot. The Redskins enter the postseason with the longest winning streak in the NFC. Seattle, on the other hand, lost two of its last three contests - one each to the lowly Carolina Panthers and Atlanta Falcons. Seattle rested some key veterans in that final loss, though, and they should be as healthy as they've been all season, save for perhaps wideout Deion Branch (calf). The Seahawks also went 6-2 in the second half of the season and are always tough at home, as evidenced by their 7-1 mark at Qwest Field this season.

Keys to Victory: Washington has been winning with great offensive and defensive game plans. Before this season, quarterback Todd Collins hadn't started a game since 1997. He must continue to play as efficiently as he has this season, when he posted a 106.4 quarterback rating while throwing for 888 yards and five touchdowns with no interceptions in four games. Seattle doesn't figure to have much success on the ground against Washington's fourth-ranked run defense; the Seahawks were 20th in rushing offense after starting tailback Shaun Alexander proved unreliable for a second season in a row. Quarterback Matt Hasselbeck, as he has all season, needs to shoulder the load and attack Washington's No. 16 pass defense.

Key Statistics

The Redskins tied for 11th in the NFL in rushing yards per game, while Seattle was ranked 20th in run defense.
In the last four weeks of the season, Seattle created eight turnovers, but the Redskins have only turned the ball over three times during that span.

Projected Winner: The Redskins are playing with heavy hearts after the tragic shooting death of free safety Sean Taylor. For their four consecutive victories, Washington's coaching staff has designed game plans that, on offense and defense, have attacked the weaknesses of their opponents. Seattle doesn't have enough balance on offense to disrupt what the Redskins have done defensively. Unless they're able to create turnovers, the Seahawks don't appear likely to end Washington's momentum.

American Football Conference - Divisional Round

San Diego Chargers (No. 3) at Indianapolis Colts (No. 2)

The AFC playoffs could bring several rematches from the regular season, and if this game does indeed take place, it will be the Chargers visiting the Colts, with San Diego looking to repeat their Week 10 success. The Colts came to "America's Finest City" Nov. 11 for a drizzly Sunday Night Football showdown. San Diego squeezed out a 23-21 victory after jumping out to a 23-0 lead. Colts quarterback Peyton Manning threw a career-high six interceptions but managed to lead the team back to a near-win. Typically rock-solid place kicker Adam Vinatieri missed two field goals, including a 29-yard attempt that would have put the Colts up by one point with 1:31 to play.

Keys to Victory: San Diego posted just 177 yards of total offense in the first meeting, but return specialist Darren Sproles toted a punt and a kickoff each for a touchdown. Indianapolis has been notoriously poor with their special teams coverage, but they showed that they are capable of shutting down the Chargers offense. Running back LaDainian Tomlinson rushed 21 times for 76 yards and a touchdown, down from his season average of 92.1 yards per contest. Quarterback Philip Rivers managed just 104 passing yards, no touchdowns and threw two interceptions. One of the main keys for the Colts is holding the Chargers offense in check. Indianapolis needs to keep LT contained and pressure Rivers into mistakes. The ultimate battle, however, may be limiting the damage Sproles does in the return game. For San Diego, forcing Manning into six interceptions is almost certainly never going to happen again, but anything they can do to their advantage to confuse him with their 3-4 alignment is a big plus. Manning has historically struggled versus said alignment.

Key Statistics

San Diego's rushing offense ranks No. 7 in the NFL and will face the 15th-ranked Colts' run defense.
Indianapolis boasts the No. 1 overall pass defense, while San Diego's passing offense ranks No. 26 overall in the NFL.
Since 2004, San Diego leads the series 2-1, winning the past two contests.

Projected Winner: Despite the Chargers' success in recent seasons against the Colts, Indianapolis figures to squeak out a win at home this go-round. The Bolts likely will come out blazing, and the Colts have a lot of injuries to contend with, but the chances of Manning throwing six interceptions or Vinatieri missing a field goal in the RCA Dome are relatively low, historically speaking, at least. Look for a close battle that may come down to the wire, but as long as the Colts force Rivers to beat them, it appears that they have the upper hand.

Jacksonville Jaguars (No. 5) at New England Patriots (No. 1)

The Jaguars travel to the unwelcoming confines of Gillette Stadium in a January battle against the NFL's first 16-0 franchise. The Patriots, who have appeared to be closer to mortal down the stretch, will be playing their first game in two weeks. Is that enough time for rust to set in, or is that nothing but more time to become even better? Say what you want about the Patriots, love them or hate them, but they know how to plan for a single game better than any team in the league. The Jaguars are a warm-weather team built to play in a cold climate. With a run-first mentality that is as tough as their head coach, Jack Del Rio, was as a linebacker, Jacksonville's one-two punch of running backs Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew is tough to defend. New England's aging linebackers could struggle to keep up with Taylor and Jones-Drew, who have averaged 5.1 yards per carry as a tandem.

Keys to Victory: For the Jaguars, the keys are somewhat obvious: Shut down wide receiver Randy Moss, and prevent quarterback Tom Brady from launching the deep ball. Despite what the statistics want to tell you, the Patriots have other deep threats to work with. Wide receivers Donte' Stallworth and Jabar Gaffney have both been known to stretch the field a time or two. If the Jaguars are able to keep Moss in check, wideout Wes Welker probably will chew them up with the underneath routes. If they can somehow manage to contain both Moss and Welker, tight end Benjamin Watson is a threat over the middle. The list goes on and on. For the Patriots, for as simple as it may sound on paper, do not let Taylor have a big day and bottle Jones-Drew up so he can't find a cutback lane. It's easier said than done, we know. Putting Jaguars quarterback David Garrard in a position that forces him to beat you goes a long way in terms of shutting down the Jaguars offense. Making Jacksonville's offense one-dimensional really hamstrings their chances of beating anyone.

Key Statistics

Jacksonville's rushing offense ranks No. 2 overall in the NFL, while New England's run defense clocks in at No. 10 overall.
New England's last home loss came at the hands of the Denver Broncos in Week 3 of the 2006 season.
Jaguars head coach Jack Del Rio is 0-2 in the playoffs, while New England head coach Bill Belichick is 12-2 with the Patriots.

Projected Winner: We do think the Jaguars have a solid chance at knocking off the Pats in this game, but that chance isn't great enough to bank on. We're going with the Patriots to advance to the conference championship game, largely due to their undefeated record. You have to beat the man to be the man, and no one has beaten the man yet this year. Several teams have come close, and Jacksonville may do just that, but better teams (at least one, anyway) have unsuccessfully tried.

National Football Conference - Divisional Round

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (No. 4) at Green Bay Packers (No. 2)

Old NFC Central rivals will tangle when the Bucs visit the Frozen Tundra for quarterback Brett Favre's first trip to the playoffs in what may seem like ages. (It has only been since 2004.) When Favre and the postseason last met, No. 4 was aimlessly heaving passes into the secondary of the Minnesota Vikings. Four picks in that Wild Card Round contest sealed the Pack's fate that year, but Green Bay and current head coach Mike McCarthy have changed Favre's philosophy - or so it seems. Favre threw 15 interceptions this season; seven of them came in Weeks 13-16. For the Packers to advance, he'll likely have to avoid such costly mistakes against Tampa Bay's No. 2-ranked defense.

Keys to Victory: The big one is Green Bay's ability to run the ball. The Packers discovered a diamond in the rough when Ryan Grant took over at running back early in their Week 8 contest. From that point forward, Grant rushed for more rushing yards than any other back in the league other than the San Diego Chargers' LaDainian Tomlinson. However, Green Bay still finished 21st in the league in rushing. The Bucs have the second-ranked defense, but they were ranked 17th against the run (107.9 yards allowed per game). Given the kind of weather one can expect at Lambeau Field in January, pounding the rock against the Bucs is a must. Tampa Bay must try to the same against the Pack's 21st-ranked run defense. Whichever team runs the ball effectively should have a large advantage.

Key Statistics

The Packers finished with the NFL's second best pass offense at 270.9 yards per game, but Tampa Bay had the league's best pass defense, with 170.5 yards allowed per game.
Green Bay was 7-1 at home in 2007, while the Bucs were 3-5 on the road. Tampa Bay has not played in a game with a game-time temperature below 51 degrees.
Green Bay allowed opponents to convert only 33 percent of the time on third down, a mark that tied them for second in the league.

Projected Winner: The Packers should have a decided home-field advantage. The bye week should give their banged up players, like wideout Greg Jennings (ankle) and cornerback Charles Woodson (toe), plenty of time to heal. The Bucs must create turnovers (more than two per game during the regular season) to even the playing field. Jeff Garcia gives the Bucs an experienced passer to lead the offense to a couple of scoring drives, but it likely won't be enough to match the Pack's efficient, fourth-ranked scoring offense (27.2 points per game).

Washington Redskins (No. 6) at Dallas Cowboys (No. 1)

These two longtime NFC East rivals seem poised to do battle for the third time. They split during the regular season - Dallas won a close one at Texas Stadium in Week 11, but in Week 17 the Skins exacted revenge by throttling the Boys and clinching a playoff spot. Dallas rested key players for large portions of the latter contest, but their offense hasn't played particularly well in recent weeks. It all began with quarterback Tony Romo's 13-for-36, three-interception performance in a Week 15 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles. Washington, on the other hand, has been a model of efficiency, led by backup quarterback Todd Collins.

Keys to Victory: Romo has to get off the schneid. In his last three games, the "awe shucks," dimple-faced heartthrob has gone 48-for-94 (51.1 percent) with one touchdown pass and five interceptions. It will, of course, be a huge help if he has wideout Terrell Owens (ankle), who isn't certain to return by the club's opening playoff game. The Cowboys have a pair of dangerous running backs, particularly Marion Barber III, but they'll need that explosive passing game because Washington entered the postseason with the fourth-ranked run defense. Dallas has the defense to shut down the run and get pressure on Todd Collins; if they do, they could change the fortunes of the lifelong backup passer and force the Redskins to deviate from their game plan.

Key Statistics

The Redskins allowed 214.0 passing yards per game, which placed them 16th in the NFL; offensively, Dallas was fourth in the league, with 256.6 passing yards per game.
Washington allowed 29 sacks this year. The Cowboys generated 46 sacks and recorded four in two games against Washington; Dallas linebacker DeMarcus Ware had two of them and has forced three fumbles against Washington this year.

Projected Winner: Washington has done well to take care of the football, but can they neutralize Dallas' playmakers? Romo has an extra week to regroup; offensive coordinator Jason Garrett has an extra week to prepare; and TO, who had four touchdowns in the teams' first meeting, has proven to be a quick healer. That should give Dallas enough firepower to overcome the wave that Washington has been riding since the beginning of December.

American Football Conference Championship Game

Indianapolis Colts (No. 2) at New England Patriots (No. 1)

Haven't we witnessed this game before? The same teams, a different season and a different location, but the hype never seems to change. The Colts, believe it or not, are the defending Super Bowl champions. The Patriots' unbelievable season will be put to the true test once again, having narrowly beaten the Colts in Week 9 by a 24-20 score. Indianapolis is without their best pass rusher in defensive end Dwight Freeney (foot), and wide receiver Marvin Harrison (knee), who missed the last meeting between these two teams, is uncertain to play in the postseason.

Keys to Victory: For the Colts, the main key is overcoming the likely poor weather that the New England area tends to bring this time of year. Indianapolis has not played well in inclement weather, especially in New England, over the past few years. The obvious, such as taking away the deep ball to wide receiver Randy Moss and forcing quarterback Tom Brady into mistakes, goes without saying. Effectively running the ball is a must for the Colts, because they cannot put themselves in a situation in which they have to rely upon quarterback Peyton Manning to carry them. New England's keys are simple: Confuse Manning, stop running back Joseph Addai and hold onto the football. As long as New England can play their style of football - on both sides of the ball - the Colts are probably too banged up to compete for 60 minutes.

Key Statistics

The Colts boast the No. 1 pass defense in the NFL, while the Patriots own the NFL's No. 10 run defense.
Colts quarterback Peyton Manning is just 3-6 versus Patriots quarterback Tom Brady, with two of the losses coming in the playoffs.

Projected Winner: The Colts were simply the better team last year, but that isn't the case this season. What is scary about that is our sources say this year's Colts team is the best during head coach Tony Dungy's tenure, which only speaks greater volumes of how good New England really is this season. New England should win this one with some struggle, because Indy isn't a complete pushover, but we don't think it will be as close as their last meeting due to all of Indianapolis' injuries and the atmosphere.

National Football Conference - Championship Game

Green Bay Packers (No. 2) at Dallas Cowboys (No. 1)

A rematch of these two clubs' Week 13 contest could be in store in the battle for the right to represent the NFC in Super Bowl XVII. In the Cowboys' 37-27 win, Packers quarterback Brett Favre sustained shoulder and elbow injuries early in the second quarter. He left with Dallas leading 20-10, a lead they would extend to 27-10 until Green Bay backup passer Aaron Rodgers guided his team to a touchdown just before halftime. Rodgers was efficient (18-for-26 for 201 yards and one touchdown, with no picks) after Green Bay changed its plan of attack. They were also without pass-rushing defensive end Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila and cornerback Charles Woodson. Might that game have turned out differently if Favre hadn't gone down and Green Bay head coach Mike McCarthy had been a little more conservative?

Keys to Victory: This matchup features two high-powered passing offenses, so what two things are likely to make the difference: (1) how well each team runs the ball, and (2) turnovers. Neither team boasts a top-10 rushing attack, but Dallas has a solid one-two punch, and the Packers were steadied by the emergence of running back Ryan Grant. The Pack was plus-4 in turnover margin this year, while the Cowboys were plus-5, so neither team appears to have the edge there. A lot will depend on how disciplined Favre and Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo each can be. The first time these two squads squared off, the Cowboys were able to get pressure early (three sacks), while Green Bay never put Romo under much duress (zero).

Key Statistics

Green Bay was 14th in the league at defending the run, allowing 102.9 yards per game on the ground. The Cowboys, conversely, were sixth, with 94.6 yards allowed per game.
Romo was 19-for-30 for 309 yards and four touchdowns, against one interception, in the first meeting between these two clubs.
Favre hasn't won a single game in nine career trips to Dallas.

Projected Winner: The real question: Will Jessica Simpson be in attendance? To be fair, KFFL would have trouble concentrating, too, if Jessica were shaking her pink No. 9 in front of the camera. The Packers should have Woodson and KGB, but Dallas is likely to have wideout Terrell Owens, along with another wrinkle thrown into the mix: wide receiver Terry Glenn. We'll assume Simpson isn't the bad-luck charm she seems to be and give the Boys the edge because they're at Dallas, where, as mentioned, Favre hasn't won in nine tries.

Super Bowl XVII

Dallas Cowboys (No. 1) at New England Patriots (No. 1)

Only conventional wisdom could suggest that the top-seeded teams from each conference would advance to the Super Bowl. Nevertheless, that's exactly what we have here. No. 1 seeds have advanced to the big game half of the time. It also happens that New England and Dallas met at Texas Stadium in Week 6, when each team was 5-0. Quarterback Tom Brady passed for 388 yards and five touchdowns, with no picks, as the Pats turned a 24-21 third quarter deficit into a runaway, 48-27 victory. That game supposedly signified the AFC's dominance over the NFC as well as served as proof that the Cowboys weren't yet ready to join the company of the league's elite. Well, Dallas may have one more chance to prove that they belong and, in fact, are the best team in the NFL, at least for 2008.

Keys to Victory: For the Cowboys, bodies. Wideout Terrell Owens (ankle) will almost certainly be back by this time, as will center Andre Gurode (knee). Wideout Terry Glenn and cornerback Anthony Henry weren't available the first meeting. The Cowboys are likely to need every weapon at their disposal to keep up with the Patriots and keep them off-balance. This game will be played at a neutral site, at University of Phoenix Stadium in Arizona, so there probably won't be any weather elements to hinder the Patriots' potent air attack. As teams that had success against New England showed, the Cowboys must get pressure on Brady and be physical with the receivers. Dallas finished third in the league with 46 sacks and managed three in that Week 6 contest, but otherwise, the league's poster boy didn't feel much heat in that one. Wideout Randy Moss and crew weren't as effective when defensive backs played push-and-shove at the line of scrimmage. On offense, the Pats need to do what they do. The Cowboys ranked 13th against the pass, but they proved vulnerable against pass-happy teams like the Pats - strong safety Roy Williams remains a liability in coverage. Receiver Wes Welker was a huge factor (11 catches, 124 yards, two touchdowns) the first time, but corner Terence Newman should be able to move to the slot if Dallas is 100 percent in the secondary. Nonetheless, if the Pats can go downfield as well as exploit the Boys' aggressiveness with screens and dump-offs, they should have success. New England has to find a way to rattle quarterback Tony Romo, too. The second-year starter was erratic to finish the season, but he'll have to be on top of his game to lead his squad to victory.

Key Statistics

In Super Bowls, the Patriots franchise is 3-2, while the Cowboys have gone 5-3.
The Cowboys sport the league's No. 4 passing offense, while the Patriots lay claim to the No. 9 pass defense.

Projected Winner: In what should be another enjoyable showdown between two prolific offenses and strong defenses, we feel that New England will complete their quest for the perfect season. The game figures to be a relatively high-scoring affair, but as we witnessed in their first duel this year, New England simply has too much firepower for Dallas to contend with.