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Strong Plays, Weak Plays - Wild Card Round

January 2, 2008 @ 09:13:02

By James Eberspacher and Matthew Wilson
Edited by Herija C. Green

Welcome to the playoffs edition of KFFL's "Strong Plays, Weak Plays" feature. Here, we'll identify strong matchups of interest that you can exploit as well as determine a few weak matchups in which you might want to consider benching your normal starter in favor of a backup. Our intention is not to tell you the obvious, such as "Start LaDainian Tomlinson!" or "Start Peyton Manning!" Instead, it is to point out some matchups involving players who aren't considered fantasy stars. Of course, we'll sometimes highlight a top fantasy player's matchup if it is an especially noteworthy strong or weak play.

Important, Please Read! Remember, just because a player has a strong-play matchup does not mean that it is an automatic endorsement as a starter. It does provide you with some valuable information to make decisions, though. As an example, some players with the "Strong Play" tag may still be a No. 4 fantasy wideout and shouldn't be started ahead of your normal starters. He just may have greater potential than normal but not enough to warrant a definite benching of someone else for him. Conversely, if a player is on the "Weak Play" list, he may not be an automatic bench, either. A stud won't have an easy matchup every week. However, he's a stud because he can overcome the weak-play situation.

Quarterbacks - Strong Plays

David Garrard, Jacksonville Jaguars at Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup	Games	Pass Yards/G	Pass TDs/G	INTs/G	Rush Yards/G	Rush TD/G
Garrard	3	208.7	2.33	0.67	11.7	0.33
Steelers vs. Pos.	4	250.5	2.75	0.75	8.8	0.00

A sneaky pick as a postseason Cinderella could very well be the Jaguars. Flying under most people's radar, the Jaguars have the tools on both sides of the ball to produce a winner, and Garrard is one of them. The man is throwing for more than 200 yards and scoring close to three touchdowns per game during the last three weeks. He hasn't made many mistakes either, which is vital in the playoffs. Garrard has thrown just two picks in his last three games.

In the first round, Garrard and the Jaguars get a team that hasn't been playing all that well recently. The Steelers are letting quarterbacks pick them apart over the last month to the tune of 250.5 yards and 2.75 touchdowns per game. They aren't very damaging to the position either, picking off just 0.75 passes per game. We like this matchup for Garrard this week. You should definitely start this strong play quarterback.

Quarterbacks - Weak Plays

Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Matchup	Games	Pass Yards/G	Pass TDs/G	INTs/G	Rush Yards/G	Rush TD/G
Roethlisberger	3	198.0	2.33	0.00	16.7	0.00
Jaguars vs. Pos.	4	127.0	1.25	1.25	2.0	0.00

What happened to Big Ben? It seems like for just as many hot streaks he was on this season, the gaps were filled by low points. Over the last three games, Roethlisberger is throwing for less than 200 yards per game. We do like his touchdown-to-interception ratio though, 2.33 to zero per game in the same span.

It will be interesting to see if Roethlisberger can get back on a hot streak during the playoffs. If so, he will definitely have to turn it up a notch or two this week as the Steelers host the Jaguars. Over the last four games, the Jaguars are holding quarterbacks to only 127 passing yards per game and have just as many interceptions as touchdowns allowed. Normally, this kind of matchup would have a quarterback slide deep into our rankings. However, with only four games this week Roethlisberger is stuck somewhere in the middle. Even with the weak play, start Roethlisberger as your fantasy quarterback.

Running Backs - Strong Plays

Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville Jaguars at Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup	Games	Rush Yards/G	Rush TD/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TDs/G
Taylor	3	130.0	1.00	0.67	8.0	0.00
Jones-Drew	3	45.7	0.33	4.33	49.0	0.00
Steelers vs. Pos.	4	120.2	0.75	4.25	22.0	0.25

One of the biggest fantasy stories this season has been the production of Taylor and how the Jaguars have stuck to relying on him every week. Taylor has proven his worth and shot up the fantasy rankings this season. With 130 rushing yards and a touchdown per week like he has averaged the last three games, it's no wonder the Jaguars and fantasy owners are sold on him.

Meanwhile, one of the hottest fantasy draft commodities has disappointed fantasy owners for most of the season. Jones-Drew hasn't been a bust though, as his pass-catching ability has given him worthy fantasy numbers nearly every week - 94.7 offensive yards per game the last three games. However, those numbers are nowhere near what many people thought he would be putting on the board.

Fortunately for Taylor and Jones-Drew owners alike, both backs are getting plenty of utilizations - 17.33 for Taylor and 16.67 for Jones-Drew (per game averages over the last three games) - in the offensive attack. This week, we are looking for those reps to turn into solid production against the Steelers. Over the last month, the Steelers are allowing 142.2 offensive yards and one touchdown per game to opposing running backs. We think those numbers should figure nicely into your starting running back(s) stat line this week. View Taylor and Jones-Drew as No. 1 backs with Taylor as the slightly better play.

Running Backs - Weak Plays

Maurice Morris and Shaun Alexander, Seattle Seahawks vs. Washington Redskins

Matchup	Games	Rush Yards/G	Rush TD/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TDs/G
Morris	4	45.5	0.25	3.00	18.5	0.00
Alexander	4	39.8	0.25	0.50	5.0	0.25
Redskins vs. Pos.	4	56.8	0.00	5.25	44.5	0.00

If you have to rely on Morris and/or Alexander this week, we feel for you. Perhaps you've been one of the many fantasy owners that was burned by Alexander's incredibly poor season and picked up Morris as insurance. With both Seahawks running backs hovering around the 50 yards per game mark during the last four weeks, neither one has helped you all that much. Touchdowns aren't all that plentiful either, with Morris scoring just once and Alexander twice during the last month.

The question is: What do you do with either player this week? To answer this, we should start with the Redskins defense against the position. Over the last month, they are giving up just a little more than 100 offensive yards per game, but they haven't allowed a single touchdown. With this in mind, look to all other starting NFL backs (and even some committee guys) before you rely on these two. Morris and Alexander are No. 2 fantasy backs and nothing more.

Wide Receivers - Strong Plays

Santana Moss, Washington Redskins at Seattle Seahawks

Matchup	Games	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TDs/G
Moss	4	4.50	72.5	0.50
Seahawks vs. Pos.	4	12.25	162.5	1.50

Were you one of those fantasy owners that stuck with Moss for the entire season? If you were, then you were probably a Redskins homer. Perhaps you plucked him off waivers once he got his engine going again. Whatever the case, Moss has been helping fantasy teams win over the last four games. He has scored twice and is hauling in a healthy 4.50 receptions for 72.5 yards per game.

We have Moss near the top of our wide receiver rankings this week. Yes, in part due to his recent production, but a larger part due to the Seahawks defense. This unit is giving up double-digit receptions, 162.5 yards and more than a touchdown per game to the position over the last four weeks. Start Moss as your No. 1 fantasy wideout this week.

Chris Chambers, San Diego Chargers vs. Tennessee Titans

Matchup	Games	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TDs/G
Chambers	4	3.75	69.8	0.50
Titans vs. Pos.	4	14.50	151.8	0.75

The Chargers are playing some of their best ball all season, which is just in time for the playoffs and for you to benefit from some of their better players. Chambers is the most highly-target wide receiver for the Chargers and has been reaping the benefits over the last four weeks. While he is averaging slightly less than four catches per game, he is making the most of them by posting 69.8 yards per game and scoring twice.

Keep your eyes on Chambers this week as your No. 1 starting wide receiver. The Titans have shown they can be exploited by the position during the last month. Wide receivers are averaging 14.50 receptions, 151.8 yards and 0.75 touchdowns per game against the Titans. It is numbers like those that could give you the jump on your opponent in the receiving department.

Matt Jones, Jacksonville Jaguars at Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup	Games	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TDs/G
Jones	4	3.00	51.5	0.75
Steelers vs. Pos.	4	14.00	196.2	2.50

OK, quit laughing; we are actually recommending Jones as a fantasy starter this week. In case you haven't noticed, Jones is being targeted nine times per game during the team's last four contests. Those targets have given the Jaguars' fourth receiver some solid overall numbers, including three touchdowns.

Jones' matchup this week favors him as well. The Steelers are allowing almost 200 receiving yards on 14 receptions per game to the position during the last month. Wide receivers are also scoring seemingly at will; averaging 2.50 touchdowns per game. With all of this in mind, are you still laughing? Probably not, but let's not go overboard and reach on Jones either. Use him only as your No. 2 or No. 3 fantasy receiver this week.

Wide Receivers - Weak Plays

Deion Branch, Seattle Seahawks vs. Washington Redskins

Matchup	Games	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TDs/G
Branch	3	4.33	51.7	0.67
Redskins vs. Pos.	4	10.00	114.8	0.25

There are not a lot of positive things we can say about Branch (calf) this season. While he had some solid games, he simply hasn't been the consistent contributor you would like from a No. 1 NFL receiver. Injuries certainly haven't helped the cause either. However, Branch is still a regular target who does have some things to contribute to your fantasy team. For example, his two touchdowns and 4.33 receptions per game over the last three games should help anyone's squad.

Branch has to face a tough defense in the Redskins this week. They have only allowed one touchdown in the last four games to a wide receiver. There is some room for a receiver to post decent numbers against this unit, though. The Redskins are giving up double-digit receptions and more than 100 yards per game over the last four games to the position. Give Branch the nod as your No. 1 wide receiver; just don't expect him to blow up against the 'Skins.

Hines Ward, Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Matchup	Games	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TDs/G
Ward	3	5.00	43.0	0.33
Jaguars vs. Pos.	4	9.00	94.5	0.50

Have you been somewhat agitated by the lack of production from Ward the last three games? Blame Roethlisberger. With only 198 yards per game coming from Big Ben's arm, there isn't a lot of love to go around. This is evident by Ward's measly 43 yards and 0.33 touchdowns per game. One positive for Ward is his five receptions per game, which would be a nice bonus in point-per-reception leagues.

This week, Ward may have a tough time grabbing a lot of receptions though. The Jaguars are very stingy in every meaningful fantasy wide receiver category. With only nine receptions, less than 100 yards and 0.50 touchdowns allowed per game during the last four games, it's hard to start a wideout with much confidence against these guys. These are the big reasons why Ward is a weak play this week. However, with only four games on the schedule the wide receiver crop in not bountiful. Start Ward as your No. 2 fantasy receiver, even a No. 1 if you are desperate.

Tight Ends - Strong Plays

Kevin Boss, New York Giants at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Matchup	Games	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TDs/G
Boss	4	1.50	20.2	0.50
Buccaneers vs. Pos.	4	3.25	29.0	1.00

We had some strong doubts about the rookie from Western Oregon when the club moved him into the starting lineup in Week 16 after tight end Jeremy Shockey (leg) was lost for the season with a broken leg, but Boss' decent performance against the New England Patriots this past Saturday (five targets, four catches for 50 yards and one touchdown) convinced us that he is a viable fantasy option. We're expecting another solid effort from him Sunday against a Tampa Bay defense that has been mediocre at defending the tight ends position in recent weeks.

The Buccaneers, since Week 14, have surrendered one touchdown per game to opposing tight ends. They have been much stingier in per-game receptions and receiving yardage allowed to the position, but don't let that stop you from using Boss. Tampa Bay, as you probably know, uses the Cover-2 defense, which limits downfield passing and big plays, forcing opposing offenses to rely on short passes underneath, which obviously looks promising for Boss. He makes a great No. 1 tight end this week.

Tight Ends - Weak Plays

Marcedes Lewis, Jacksonville Jaguars at Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup	Games	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TDs/G
Lewis	4	1.25	15.8	0.00
Steelers vs. Pos.	4	3.25	32.2	0.00

Back in Week 15, Lewis caught just two balls for 38 yards and zero touchdowns against Pittsburgh, and all signs point to another quiet game from him when his club returns to Heinz Field this Saturday for a playoff rematch against the Steelers. With Jacksonville's rushing attack firing on all cylinders and their passing game focusing mainly on the wide receivers, Lewis, despite taking the bulk of the snaps as the club's No. 1 tight end, has become a forgotten man in the offense. Since Week 14, he has received an average of just 2.75 looks per game (4.07 percent). Lewis also has been targeted 0.75 times per outing inside the red zone (5.87) during that timeframe.

Although the Steelers defense has struggled noticeably during the closing weeks of the regular season, this unit has still done a solid job of containing enemy tight ends. Between Week 14 and Week 17, Pittsburgh did not surrender a touchdown to the position while yielding per-game catch and receiving yardage numbers that rate as above-average and average in the league in that timeframe, respectively. Consider Lewis a borderline No. 1 tight end this week.

Place Kickers - Strong Plays

Matt Bryant, Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New York Giants

Matchup	Games	FGA/G	FG/G	XPA/G	XP/G	Pts/Game
Bryant	4	2.00	2.00	2.25	2.25	8.2
Giants vs. Pos.	4	2.25	2.00	2.00	2.00	8.0

Granted, Bryant, who kicks for what has usually been a grind-it-out offense this year, is not a glamorous choice, but we all know this is about scoring potential, not star power. His 8.2 actual kicking points tallied per game during the last month is tied for the third-highest scoring average among all place kickers who play for teams that made the postseason.

The Giants, since Week 14, have yielded eight actual kicking points per contest. Only eight clubs have given up a higher scoring average to enemy place kickers during that time span. There is one more thing working in Bryant's favor: At press time, we were expecting favorable weather conditions this Sunday at Raymond James Stadium. Bryant rates a nice mid-tier No. 1 place kicker option.

Place Kickers - Weak Plays

Nate Kaeding, San Diego Chargers vs. Tennessee Titans

Matchup	Games	FGA/G	FG/G	XPA/G	XP/G	Pts/Game
Kaeding	4	2.50	2.50	3.25	3.25	10.8
Titans vs. Pos.	4	1.00	0.75	1.50	1.25	3.5

Kaeding (fibula) has been a scoring machine lately. His 10.8 actual kicking points scored per game during the last month is the highest average among all the place kickers who made it to the playoffs. Although Kaeding is kicking for a surging offense in a warm-weather venue, we think you should dial down your expectations a few notches for him this Sunday.

Since Week 14, the Titans have surrendered a league-low 3.5 actual kicking points per contest and kept Kaeding in check when the two clubs faced each other at LP Field back in Week 14, holding him to just five points. Don't forget - Kaeding is playing with an injury, which obviously makes him a risky start. Place kicker Dave Rayner handled the kickoff duties for San Diego in Week 17, and, at press time, was expected to do so again this week. Kaeding is still the guy on field goals and extra points, but he could aggravate his injury and have to sit out. Despite the downside, Kaeding still rates as a No. 1 place kicker.

Rob Bironas, Tennessee Titans at San Diego Chargers

Matchup	Games	FGA/G	FG/G	XPA/G	XP/G	Pts/Game
Bironas	4	2.50	2.25	1.50	1.50	8.2
Chargers vs. Pos.	4	1.25	0.75	1.50	1.50	3.8

There is no denying that Bironas has been one of the most productive place kickers in the league this year. His 8.2 actual kicking points scored per game between Week 14 and Week 17 is one of the better averages in the league during that stretch. Nevertheless, if you roll with Bironas this Sunday, we think you should expect a quiet game from him.

The Chargers have been extremely stingy to opposing kickers during the last four weeks, surrendering just 3.8 actual kicking points per contest. When Bironas faced San Diego back in Week 14, he tallied just five actual kicking points, although he did misfire on a 29-yard field goal attempt. The Titans offense is dealing with some injuries, which could drag down Bironas' production. Quarterback Vince Young (quadriceps) and running backs LenDale White (knee) and Chris Brown (back) are all banged up, and, at press time, are questionable to play. Even if all three are available to face the Chargers, each player is clearly not 100 percent. Despite our concerns about the circumstances surrounding Bironas this week, Bironas is still a mid-tier No. 1 place kicker option.

Team Defenses - Strong Plays

New York Giants at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Matchup	Games	Pts/G	Yds/G	Sacks/G	Ints/G	Fum/G
Giants Def.	4	23.5	312.2	2.25	0.75	0.50
Buccaneers Off.	4	20.2	331.8	3.50	0.75	0.75

We figure your current opinion of the New York defense is based on its showing this past Saturday night against the Patriots. Keep in mind that the Patriots have made a lot of respected defensive units look bad this season. The Giants should rebound this week with a more favorable matchup against a Buccaneers offense that has been productive, but rarely explosive, this season. During the last four weeks, New York has given up respectable point and yardage totals per game while their pass rush has remained solid.

Tampa Bay's offense has rolled up some above-average per-game point and yardage numbers, but this unit has struggled noticeably with pass protection, which bodes well for the Giants' powerful pass rush. New York's secondary has struggled most of the season, but we don't think Tampa Bay has a passing game that is good enough to exploit this weakness with a high degree of success. We rate the Giants defense as a low-tier No. 1 unit this week, making them a good start, but not a great one.

Team Defenses - Weak Plays

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Matchup	Games	Pts/G	Yds/G	Sacks/G	Ints/G	Fum/G
Steelers Def.	4	28.5	373.0	0.75	0.75	0.25
Jacksonville Off.	4	34.2	416.5	1.00	0.50	0.75

As we've told you on more than one occasion during the last four weeks, the loss of defensive end Aaron Smith (biceps) has absolutely crippled the Pittsburgh defense with little hope for a rebound in site. To make matters worse for the Steelers, they have a rematch this Saturday at Heinz Field against an offense that shredded them for 29 points and 421 total yards back in Week 15. Since Week 14, Pittsburgh has allowed per-game point and yardage numbers that both rate in the bottom-five of the league. The vaunted “Steel Curtin” pass rush also has all but vanished, forcing this unit to live off what few turnovers it can force.

The Jacksonville offense finished up the regular season on fire, racking up per-game point and yardage numbers that are both league bests during the last four weeks. The Jaguars have also done a good job in pass protection and have rarely turned the ball over. Did you know Jacksonville is 3-0 in its last three matchups against Pittsburgh? All signs point to a rough game for the Steelers defense. This unit rates as a marginal No. 1 unit for this week.

Author Bio

James Eberspacher

James Eberspacher has been Commissioner of a "high performance" fantasy football league since 1994. He has created an entertaining and challenging league by designing a unique scoring system and a creative sense of writing and style. He has been a KFFL Contributor since 2003.

Author Bio

Matthew Wilson
Matt Wilson is a lifelong college and pro football fan who proudly touts the Michigan Wolverines and the Chicago Bears as his two favorite teams. Matt discovered fantasy football in 1999 and has been addicted to it ever since. His professional background includes a four-year stint as a news reporter for a Chicago-area radio station. Matt was sports director for his college television station at Northern Illinois. Seeking a new challenge, Matt joined KFFL in 2004.