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NFC West Week 17 Fantasy Outlook

December 28, 2007 @ 09:15:45

By Mark Traas
Edited by Herija C. Green

Note: All statistics appearing in this article are from Weeks 13-16, unless otherwise noted.

Do Not Bench List - All Positions

Running Back Steven Jackson, St. Louis Rams: In the Rams' loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 16 action, Jackson had another solid fantasy performance. He rushed for 85 yards on just 12 carries for an impressive 7.1 yards per carry. He also added another 21 yards on three receptions, including one catch for a touchdown. However, as the Rams fell behind the Steelers, Jackson saw less action in the second half of the game. In spite of the Rams being out of playoff contention, Jackson will likely continue to get most of the touches during this week's game as long as it is still a contest. The Rams play their last game of the season against the Arizona Cardinals, who are also out of playoff contention. In what should be a fairly competitive and potentially high-scoring game this week, Jackson rates as our top overall back.
Wide Receiver Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona Cardinals: Fitzgerald (groin) pulled in six catches on 11 looks for 72 yards in Week 16 action against the Falcons. He did not see a look in the red zone, where receiver Anquan Boldin was the primary target. Although he did not score last week, Fitzgerald still has seven touchdowns in the last six games that he has played. The Pro Bowler has been limited in practice this week, but he is expected to start in Week 17 at home against the Rams. The Rams have allowed an average of 204.5 yards and 1.25 touchdowns per game to opposing wideouts over their past four games. As a strong play against St. Louis, Fitzgerald ranks as a No. 1 or No. 2 wideout.
Wide Receiver Anquan Boldin, Arizona Cardinals: Boldin (toe) had an excellent game against the Atlanta Falcons in Week 16 action, with a team-high 13 receptions for 162 yards, two of them for touchdowns. Like Fitzgerald, Boldin has been limited in practice this week, but he is also expected to start against the Rams. This week, Boldin ranks as an upper-tier No. 1 wideout with a strong play.
Wide Receiver Torry Holt, St. Louis Rams: Last Sunday, Holt caught only three passes on 10 looks for 41 yards against the Steelers. Holt was clearly disappointed with how the Rams offense was being conducted during the fourth quarter of the game, vocally expressing his displeasure to head coach Scott Linehan. Despite his uncharacteristic outburst last week, Holt will likely be utilized as usual against the Cardinals in Week 17. With the Cardinals giving up a very generous average of 218.8 yards and 1.75 touchdowns per game to wideouts over their last four games, Holt is a strong play this week as a mid-tier No. 1 receiver.

Quarterbacks

Player	Team	Gm	Pass Yds/G	Pass TD/G	INT/G	Rush Yards/G	Rush TD/G
Kurt Warner	Arizona Cardinals	4	277.0	2.75	1.75	0.0	0.00
Marc Bulger	St. Louis Rams	2	213.5	2.00	2.00	-0.5	0.00
Shaun Hill	San Francisco 49ers	3	166.7	1.67	0.67	4.7	0.33
Matt Hasselbeck	Seattle Seahawks	4	233.0	2.25	0.75	6.2	0.00

Warner - Helping many fantasy teams win their respective league championships with his impressive numbers in Week 16, Warner (elbow) completed 36 of 53 passes for 361 yards with three touchdowns in the Cardinals' overtime win over the Falcons. Warner has consistently thrown for either two or three touchdowns in each of his last seven contests while piling up NFL league-leading passing yardage totals over the past five weeks. This week, Warner faces a soft Rams pass defense that has allowed an average of 258.2 yards and 1.75 touchdowns per game to quarterbacks over their last four games. With Warner being one quarterback who will almost certainly play a full game this week, you can confidently start him as a top-tier No. 1 quarterback with a strong play against the Rams.

Bulger - Bulger completed 18 passes on 35 attempts for 208 yards and three touchdowns with two interceptions against the Steelers in Week 16. Although he was banged up several times during the game, Bulger should start again this week against the Cardinals, who have allowed a whopping 301.5 yards and 2.50 touchdowns per game against opposing quarterbacks over their last four games. As such, Bulger rates as a strong play against the Cardinals and can be started as a lower-tier No. 1 quarterback for this week's game.

Hill - In his second NFL start, Hill (back, ribs) threw for a very modest 123 yards, but three of his completions went for touchdowns. This week, the Niners go on the road to face the Cleveland Browns. Although the Browns are in the hunt for a playoff spot, their fate rests solely on the outcome of this week's Tennessee Titans game instead of their tilt against the Niners. The Browns have allowed a stingy 173.5 yards and 0.75 touchdowns per game against opposing quarterbacks over their last four games. Weather could also impede the effectiveness of the passing game. Another factor is the health of Hill, who has not practiced due to back spasms. With a weak play matchup for his first road start, Hill would rate as a lower-tier No. 1 quarterback if he is able to play this Sunday.

Hasselbeck - Against the Baltimore Ravens in Week 16, Hasselbeck finished with a modest 18-for-27 passing line for 199 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions. Hasselbeck now has thrown for a career-high 27 touchdowns on the season. This week, Hasselbeck is a strong play against a Falcons defense that has allowed opposing quarterbacks a generous average of 279.2 yards and 2.50 touchdowns with only 0.75 interceptions per game over their last four games. The downside to playing Hasselbeck is the possibility that he and other Seattle starters may come out in the midst the game, as Seattle is already locked into the NFC's No. 3 playoff seed. As a strong play, but with some uncertainty about full-game (or even half-game) playing time, Hasselbeck rates as a risky borderline lower-tier No. 1 quarterback. You might want to bench Hasselbeck for another active quarterback who is more certain to play out an entire game this week.

Running Backs

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rush Yds/G	Rush TD/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Edgerrin James	Arizona Cardinals	4	22.75 (34.70)	5.25 (40.85)	78.0	0.00	2.00	16.0	0.00
Frank Gore	San Francisco 49ers	4	25.00 (43.00)	2.50 (38.50)	88.2	0.00	4.50	38.5	0.25
Shaun Alexander	Seattle Seahawks	4	13.50 (21.15)	1.75 (18.35)	48.2	0.25	0.50	5.0	0.25
Maurice Morris	Seattle Seahawks	4	12.00 (18.80)	2.50 (26.21)	38.8	0.25	2.00	14.0	0.00

James - In Week 16 action against the Falcons, Edge rushed 25 times for 76 yards and caught five passes for 21 yards. Although James did not score, he was utilized on seven of the Cardinals' 15 red zone plays. This week, James runs against a Rams rushing defense that has allowed opposing backs a generous average of 125.8 yards and 0.75 touchdowns per game over their last four games. With six touchdowns so far this season but none within the last five games, Edge could reverse his scoreless trend as a lower-tier No. 2 or upper-tier No. 3 back with a strong play against the Rams.

Gore - Gore had an extremely busy day against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 16 action as he rushed for 89 yards on 21 carries and caught four passes for 43 yards and one touchdown. Gore was utilized in a whopping 53.75 percent of all plays, including two of the Niners' three red zone plays. This week, Gore goes against a Browns rush defense that has allowed an average of 120 yards but just 0.25 touchdowns per game to opposing running backs in their last four games. Inclement weather in Cleveland could lead to greater emphasis in the Niners' running game, meaning Gore can be started as a lower-tier No. 1 or upper-tier No. 2 back this week.

Alexander - Against the Ravens in Week 16, Alexander rushed 13 times for 73 yards and caught one 14-yard pass for his first receiving touchdown of the season. The Seahawks are already locked into the third seed in the NFC, so Alexander is not likely to see more action this Sunday than he has in recent weeks. You can play him as a lower-tier No. 3 running back or injury replacement with strong play potential in Week 17.

Morris - Continuing a shared workload role with Alexander in Week 16, Morris rushed 15 times for 40 yards and caught just one pass for minus-1 yard. Like Alexander, Morris was utilized three times within the red zone. Although Morris' fantasy value has diminished considerably over the last four weeks, he still rates as a No. 3 back with a strong play against the Falcons this week.

Wide Receivers

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Isaac Bruce	St. Louis Rams	4	8.50 (13.66)	0.50 (15.38)	3.75	47.5	0.50
Arnaz Battle	San Francisco 49ers	4	4.25 (7.31)	0.50 (7.70)	2.00	21.8	0.50
Deion Branch	Seattle Seahawks	4	8.25 (12.93)	1.75 (18.35)	4.50	48.8	0.50
Nate Burleson	Seattle Seahawks	4	6.00 (9.40)	0.50 (5.24)	3.25	48.2	0.75
Bobby Engram	Seattle Seahawks	4	7.50 (11.75)	0.75 (7.86)	5.75	67.0	0.50

Bruce - Bruce pulled in seven passes for 87 yards and one touchdown in Week 16 action against the Steelers. He was utilized as frequently as Holt was on with 10 looks. As a strong play this week on the road against the Cardinals, Bruce rates as a No. 2 or No. 3 receiver.

Battle - Battle (ankle) played in every snap of the game last week but failed to catch any of the four passes thrown his way. Instead, the passing attack focused more on tight end Vernon Davis and Gore, who both got six looks and a touchdown. Fellow wideout Darrell Jackson picked up the third passing touchdown on just two receptions for 27 yards. This week, Battle should only be used to cover an injury.

Branch - In the Seahawks' Week 16 win over the Ravens, Branch (calf) caught just two passes for 24 yards. Branch is hurting this week and, with Seattle having locked their No. 3 seed in the NFC, may not see much action against Atlanta. Check back with KFFL for updates on his status but be prepared to go in another direction this week.

Burleson - In Week 16, Burleson caught three passes for 52 yards and one touchdown. Burleson now has three touchdowns in his last four games. With the possibility that Branch and Engram may play sparingly this coming week in Atlanta, Burleson may see more action than usual. As such, Burleson rates as a lower-tier No. 1 or upper-tier No. 2 wideout with a strong play against the Falcons.

Engram - Engram caught a team-high five passes for 69 yards against the Ravens in Week 16. Engram is averaging almost eight targets per game even with both Branch and Burleson in the lineup. However, Engram may see less playing time this week as the Seahawks have already clinched their playoff seed, particularly if fellow wideout D.J. Hackett (ankle) returns to the lineup after being out several weeks with an ankle injury. For this week's inconsequential game in Atlanta, Engram rates as a potentially risky upper-tier No. 3 wideout.

Tight Ends

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Ben Patrick	Arizona Cardinals	4	2.25 (3.43)	1.00 (7.78)	1.25	13.5	0.25
Randy McMichael	St. Louis Rams	4	4.50 (7.23)	0.25 (7.69)	3.00	26.5	0.25
Marcus Pollard	Seattle Seahawks	4	3.00 (4.70)	0.75 (7.86)	1.75	10.2	0.25
Vernon Davis	San Francisco 49ers	4	6.25 (10.75)	0.75 (11.55)	3.50	34.2	0.50

Patrick - Patrick caught just one pass for 21 yards on three looks from Warner against the Falcons. Given the few looks that he gets each week, Patrick should be benched.

McMichael - McMichael caught six passes for 51 yards in Week 16 against the Steelers, much of it later in the game when the outcome was already decided. This week against the Cardinals, McMichael should be benched or played as a borderline lower-tier No. 1 tight end if no better options are available.

Pollard - Pollard caught three passes for a paltry 15 yards in Week 16 action. With few looks coming his way from Hasselbeck in recent weeks, Pollard should be benched.

Davis - In the Niners' Week 16 game against Tampa Bay, Davis was targeted six times, catching three passes for 30 yards and one touchdown. Davis now has two touchdowns in the last two weeks and three touchdowns within the last five weeks. Even as a weak play against the Browns this week, Davis rates as a mid-tier No. 1 tight end.

Place Kickers

Player	Team	Gm	XP/G	XPA/G	FG/G	FGA/G	Kick Pnts/G
Neil Rackers	Arizona Cardinals	4	3.00	3.00	1.50	2.00	7.5
Jeff Wilkins	St. Louis Rams	4	2.50	2.50	0.50	1.00	4.0
Josh Brown	Seattle Seahawks	4	3.00	3.00	1.25	1.50	6.8
Joe Nedney	San Francisco 49ers	4	2.00	2.00	0.50	0.50	3.5

Rackers - Rackers hit all three field goal attempts and three extra points for the Cardinals in their overtime win against the Falcons last week. This week the Cardinals are up against the Rams, who have allowed a generous average of 2.75 field goals and 2.50 extra points to kickers their past four games. With the Rams allowing a lot of kicking scores, Rackers rates as a mid-tier No. 1 kicker with a strong play.

Wilkins - Wilkins hit his only field attempt and scored three extra points in Week 16 action against the Steelers. With the Rams still struggling to consistently get the ball within field goal range and as a weak play against Arizona, Wilkins should be benched this week.

Brown - Brown hit both of his field goal attempts along with three extra points against the Ravens in Week 16. Against an Atlanta team that has allowed 9.8 kicking points per game over their last four games, Brown rates as a borderline No. 1 kicker with a strong play or he can be benched.

Nedney - At home against Tampa Bay, Nedney hit three extra points without a single field goal attempt. Ranking near the bottom of the kicker scoring list throughout the season in most fantasy leagues, Nedney should be benched as a weak play against Cleveland this week.

Defensive Teams

Team	Gm	Off Pnts Allw/G	INT/G	Sacks/G	FR/G	DEF/ST TD/G
Arizona Cardinals	4	28.2	0.75	1.25	1.00	0.2
St. Louis Rams	4	25.8	1.50	2.25	0.50	0.2
Seattle Seahawks	4	16.0	2.25	2.00	0.75	0.5
San Francisco 49ers	4	19.5	0.75	1.50	0.50	0.0

Cardinals - The Cardinals defense picked up two sacks and one interception in a 30-27 overtime win against the Falcons last Sunday. Against the Rams this week, the Cardinals defense rates as a borderline lower-tier No. 1 defense that could also be benched.

Rams - In their loss to the Steelers last week, the Rams got in four sacks but did not force any turnovers while allowing Pittsburgh to score 35 offensive points against them. Against an explosive but sometimes sloppy Arizona offense, the Rams defense rates as a borderline lower-tier No. 1 defense.

Seahawks - The Seahawks defense picked up three fumble recoveries and two sacks against the struggling Baltimore offense, which scored only six points in Week 16. This week, the Seahawks will likely be resting many of their starters with the NFC No. 3 seed already in hand. As such, the Seahawks defense should probably be benched this week against the Falcons.

49ers - In their Week 16 win over Tampa Bay, the Niners defense got in four sacks along with one interception and one fumble recovery. The Niners defense has a chance to make some noise against the Browns, who have thrown seven interceptions and lost two fumbles over the last four weeks. Weather conditions could also become a factor, possibly leading to a low-scoring game. As such, the Niners defense rates as a mid-tier No. 1 defense with a strong play for this week.