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NFC South Week 17 Fantasy Outlook

December 28, 2007 @ 09:15:19

By Michael Egnak
Edited by Nicholas Minnix

Note: All statistics appearing in this article are from Weeks 13-16, unless otherwise noted.

Do Not Bench List - All Positions

Running Back Earnest Graham, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Graham had nine carries for 21 yards with no touchdowns against the San Francisco 49ers in Week 16. He also added two receptions for 11 receiving yards. Over his past four games, Graham has averaged 66.8 rushing yards and 1.00 rushing touchdowns. He also has an average of 5.00 receptions and 33.2 receiving yards since Week 13. Graham is worth using as a No. 1 fantasy running back in Week 17, but be cautious in that the team has nothing to play for at this point. It is very possible Graham does not receive enough playing time to have an impact for fantasy teams, and he is listed as questionable.
Wide Receiver Marques Colston, New Orleans Saints: A chest injury forced Colston (chest) to leave the team's Week 16 game for a bit, but he was able to return. However, his numbers lagged, and he finished with just three receptions for 16 yards against the Philadelphia Eagles. Colston is averaging 5.50 receptions, 65.2 yards and 0.75 touchdowns over his past four games. He is a weak play against the Chicago Bears in Week 17. He is expected to play and should be worth using as a low-end No. 1 or as a No. 2 fantasy wide receiver.

Quarterbacks

Player	Team	Gm	Pass Yds/G	Pass TD/G	INT/G	Rush Yards/G	Rush TD/G
Chris Redman	Atlanta Falcons	4	204.8	1.50	1.25	1.5	0.00
Matt Moore	Carolina Panthers	3	137.0	0.33	0.33	1.7	0.00
Drew Brees	New Orleans Saints	4	277.8	1.75	0.25	0.0	0.00
Jeff Garcia	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	2	152.5	1.00	0.50	0.0	0.00

Redman - Redman wasn't anything special in Week 16 against the Arizona Cardinals, but he didn't cost the team the game either. Redman was 28-for-42 for 315 yards with two touchdowns and one interception during the team's Week 16 game. As the Falcons' tumultuous season finally comes to a close, the team will have to evaluate their quarterback position hard over the offseason. While Redman has been decent over his past four games, he is hardly someone to count on over the course of a full season. However, he likely has played well enough to fight for a backup job somewhere, either with Atlanta or someone else. Redman will play against the Seattle Seahawks in Week 17. The Seahawks are locked into the No. 3 seed in the postseason, meaning they may rest a few starters or pull them early during the game, giving Redman an opportunity to pick on backups for much of the game. He is a low-end No. 1 fantasy quarterback for the week.

Moore - Moore didn't do much against the Dallas Cowboys in Week 16, going just 15-for-28 for 182 yards with one touchdown and one interception. Moore's numbers aren't anything to get excited over, as he isn't helping to move the team well and not finding the end zone. However, he has done a solid job of not turning the ball over either. Moore faces the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in a meaningless game during Week 17, as the Bucs are already locked into the No. 4 seed in the postseason. Even with Tampa Bay probably resting or pulling their starters early, Moore is a weak play and should be benched for the game.

Brees - The Saints find themselves in a must-win scenario for Week 17. Not only do they need to win in order to get into the postseason, but they also need the Washington Redskins and the Minnesota Vikings to both lose. Even better for fantasy owners of Saints players is the start times for those three games. The Saints will play early, at 1:00 p.m. EST Sunday, while both the Redskins and Vikings will start at 4:15 p.m. EST. This helps guarantee that the Saints will likely leave their starters in until the game is decided, which will benefit some fantasy teams out there. Getting back on track, Brees didn't have the best of games in Week 16. He was 30-for-45 for 289 yards, but he had one interception and failed to throw a touchdown pass for the first time since Week 5. His Week 17 matchup won't be much better, as he'll travel to the Windy City for a December matchup against the Chicago Bears. He is a weak play for the game but still worth starting for the majority of fantasy teams.

Garcia - With the team locked into the No. 4 seed in the NFC playoffs, Garcia will likely see his playing time reduced drastically. He was already removed late in the first half of the team's Week 16 game, and it is likely he will see even less time against the Carolina Panthers in Week 17. Garcia was 12-for-20 for 196 yards and only one touchdown for Week 16. He is a weak play against the Panthers, and he should be benched in fantasy leagues.

Running Backs

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rush Yds/G	Rush TD/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Jerious Norwood	Atlanta Falcons	4	10.00 (15.85)	0.75 (10.28)	55.2	0.00	1.50	18.5	0.00
Warrick Dunn	Atlanta Falcons	4	11.25 (17.83)	2.25 (30.84)	16.2	0.00	1.00	12.2	0.00
DeAngelo Williams	Carolina Panthers	4	13.50 (21.70)	2.00 (24.49)	52.5	0.25	1.50	17.0	0.00
DeShaun Foster	Carolina Panthers	4	15.75 (25.31)	2.00 (24.49)	40.0	0.25	1.25	11.5	0.00
Aaron Stecker	New Orleans Saints	4	20.00 (33.56)	5.50 (54.20)	65.0	1.00	4.25	30.8	0.00

Norwood - Norwood hasn't exactly been tearing up the field over the past four weeks either, but he's doing far better than Dunn has lately. Norwood had seven carries for 33 yards in Week 16. He should be able to have a small amount of success against the Seahawks in Week 17, thus making him a solid low-end No. 3 fantasy running back or injury replacement.

Dunn - Dunn might be done at this point. He had 12 carries for just 13 yards against the Arizona Cardinals in Week 16. He's averaging just 1.8 yards per carry over his past four games, and his contributions in the receiving game aren't much better. Altogether, Dunn is averaging about 10 touches per game and gaining just 2.8 yards per touch over that timeframe. Even though the Seahawks may rest some of their starters in Week 17, Dunn should only be used as an injury replacement for the game.

Williams - Williams is getting more and more playing time, and the way he continues to perform should ensure he gets more touches in Week 17. Williams had 10 carries for 60 yards in Week 16 against Dallas. Williams didn't factor as much in the receiving game, as he caught just one pass for six yards. Williams will play against the Buccaneers in Week 17. He is a weak play only worth using as a low-end No. 3 running back or as an injury replacement.

Foster - Foster saw decreased playing time again in Week 16, earning just four carries for nine rushing yards against Dallas. His fantasy value has taken a major tumble as he finds Williams earning more touches each week. Foster is only worth using as an injury replacement for Week 17.

Stecker - Stecker (toe) had 13 carries for 49 yards during the team's Week 16 game against Philadelphia, but he was able to score two touchdowns. He also caught four passes for 35 receiving yards during the game. Turf toe forced Stecker to leave the game for a bit, but he was able to return. With a cold-weather matchup likely for Week 17, expect the team to run more often against the Bears. Combined with the team's need to win this game, Stecker is a strong play worth using as a No. 1 fantasy running back. However, fantasy owners should use caution because Stecker hasn't practiced yet this week and is likely a game-time decision. Check back with KFFL for the latest on his status.

Wide Receivers

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Roddy White	Atlanta Falcons	4	11.75 (18.62)	1.25 (17.14)	6.50	91.5	0.50
Steve Smith	Carolina Panthers	4	12.75 (20.49)	1.50 (18.37)	7.75	79.2	0.25
David Patten	New Orleans Saints	4	6.25 (10.49)	1.00 (9.85)	4.75	62.0	0.50
Joey Galloway	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	4	6.75 (9.17)	0.50 (5.28)	3.75	70.5	0.00
Ike Hilliard	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	4	4.50 (6.11)	0.00 (0.00)	2.75	29.0	0.00

White - White had a tremendous game in Week 16, catching 12 passes for 141 receiving yards against the Arizona Cardinals in Week 16. With 1,140 receiving yards on the season, White is the first Falcons receiver to break 1,000 yards since former wideout Terence Mathis in 1999. White will look to build on his breakout 2007 campaign in Week 17 against Seattle. He is a strong play for the game and is worth starting on almost every fantasy team.

Smith - In Week 16, Smith finally started to gain some yardage on all those receptions he was totaling. Smith caught nine passes for 137 yards with one touchdown. He is averaging 7.75 receptions over his past four games, but he is only averaging a little more than 10 yards per reception. Smith should be able to do well against the Bucs in Week 17, especially if they start pulling defensive starters early in the game. However, he is still a weak play and only worth using as a No. 2 wide receiver for your fantasy team.

Patten - Patten pieced together another solid effort against the Eagles in Week 16. He caught six passes for 55 yards during the game. He will take on the Bears in Week 17, where he is a weak play and only worth using as a No. 2 fantasy wide receiver.

Galloway - Galloway (shoulder) struggled for the second consecutive week, catching just one pass for 29 receiving yards in Week 16. He will likely miss practice this week with a bruised shoulder. Given that the team is locked into their playoff position and he's listed as doubtful, there's a good chance he will sit out Week 17 altogether to give him time to heal before their first-round matchup against the New York Giants.

Hilliard - Hilliard caught three passes for 50 yards during the Week 16 game. It was one of his better games over the past six weeks, but it was still not enough to benefit fantasy teams in a critical week. Hilliard could find himself seeing a little less playing time in Week 17, and he remains a weak play that should be benched.

Tight Ends

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Alge Crumpler	Atlanta Falcons	4	8.25 (9.90)	1.00 (13.71)	3.00	23.2	0.25
Jeff King	Carolina Panthers	4	3.00 (4.82)	0.75 (9.18)	1.50	0.0	0.25
Eric Johnson	New Orleans Saints	2	3.00 (2.52)	0.50 (2.46)	2.00	14.5	0.00
Billy Miller	New Orleans Saints	4	3.25 (5.45)	0.00 (0.00)	2.00	29.8	0.00
Alex Smith	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	4	4.25 (5.7)	0.25 (2.64)	2.25	32.2	0.00

Crumpler - It wasn't a great game for Crumpler, but he was able to find the end zone for the third time this season. Crumpler finished with two catches for 12 yards against the Cardinals. Crumpler is a weak play against the Seahawks in Week 17, and he is only worth using as a low-end No. 1 fantasy tight end; otherwise, he could be benched.

King - King didn't record a single catch in the team's Week 16 loss to the Dallas Cowboys. It was the first time all year King went without at least one reception in a game. He is a weak play for Week 17 and should stay benched.

Johnson - Johnson (groin) was out again in Week 16. He hasn't factored much into the offense anyway, and his status for Week 17 is uncertain. Even if he plays against the Bears, fantasy owners will want to bench him.

Miller - Miller has quietly filled in well for Johnson at the tight end position. He caught three passes for 38 yards against the Eagles in Week 16 and has a combined six receptions for 77 yards in his past two games. Despite the improved numbers with Johnson out of the game, Miller is a weak play and should be benched against the Bears in Week 17.

Smith - Smith came up with six receptions for 79 yards, both season highs, against the 49ers in Week 16. Smith will play Carolina in Week 17, where he could eventually see his playing time decreased while the Bucs rest their main players. Smith is worth using as a low-end No. 1 fantasy tight end against the Panthers.

Place Kickers

Player	Team	Gm	XP/G	XPA/G	FG/G	FGA/G	Kick Pnts/G
Morten Andersen	Atlanta Falcons	4	1.50	1.50	1.00	1.00	4.5
John Kasay	Carolina Panthers	4	1.50	1.50	1.75	2.00	6.8
Martin Gramatica	New Orleans Saints	2	3.00	3.00	2.00	2.00	9.0
Matt Bryant	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	4	2.50	2.50	1.75	2.00	7.8

Andersen - With the team's offense moving fairly well against the Cardinals, Andersen was called on to do more in Week 16 than he has in most other weeks. Andersen successfully booted three extra points and two field goals during the game. However, he again didn't have any lengthy field goals to give fantasy teams a little boost in the distance department. Andersen's field goals came from only 23 and 21 yards away. The offense can't be counted on for a weekly basis. Andersen is a weak play in Week 17 and should be benched.

Kasay - Kasay was able to successfully convert two field goals and one extra point during the team's Week 16 game. He still isn't scoring enough to warrant much use in fantasy leagues, but he was able to hit from 37 and 25 yards out during the game. Kasay is a weak play who should be benched in Week 17.

Gramatica - Gramatica was great in Week 16, converting three field goal tries and two extra point tries into points for the Saints. He was good on field goals from 55, 35 and 46 yards during the game. Unfortunately, Gramatica will have to deal with a frigid Soldier Field in Week 17, where he will have to deal with the elements instead of a dome. Gramatica is a weak play only worth using as a low-end No. 1 place kicker for Week 17.

Bryant - Bryant had a down game in Week 16, converting just two field goals and one extra point attempt. Bryant was good on field goals from 34 and 22 yards during the game. He is still worth using as a No. 1 place kicker in fantasy leagues in Week 17.

Defensive Teams

Team	Gm	Off Pnts Allw/G	INT/G	Sacks/G	FR/G	DEF/ST TD/G
Atlanta Falcons	4	27.8	0.75	0.75	0.25	0.0
Carolina Panthers	4	18.8	1.25	2.25	1.00	0.2
New Orleans Saints	4	24.2	0.75	2.75	0.50	0.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	4	15.2	0.75	2.25	1.50	0.5

Falcons - The Falcons struggled again in Week 16, allowing 30 offensive points and 427 net yards of offense to Arizona. The team didn't record any sacks or turnovers during the game. The Falcons are a weak play for Week 17 against Seattle and should not be used under any circumstances.

Panthers - The Panthers allowed 20 offensive points and 405 net yards to Dallas in Week 16. They were able to record one interception from quarterback Tony Romo, but they were unable to get any sacks on Romo. Carolina's defense is a strong play and worth starting against Tampa Bay.

Saints - The Saints allowed 32 offensive points and 435 net yards to the Eagles in Week 16. They did recover one fumble and also had three sacks during the game. The Saints will face Chicago in Week 17, where they are only worth using as a very low-end starting option. They are much better suited for the bench for the game.

Buccaneers - The Buccaneers defense allowed 21 offensive points to San Francisco in Week 16. However, they only allowed 213 net offensive yards while recording two sacks, one interception and one fumble recovery during the game. They are worth using as a low-end No. 1 fantasy team defense against Carolina in Week 17.

Author Bio

Michael Egnak
Michael Egnak is a Hot Off The Wire Analyst at KFFL and has been with the company since 2005. Covering both NFL and MLB, Egnak is also a key contributor to KFFL's fantasy services.