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AFC West Week 17 Fantasy Outlook

December 28, 2007 @ 09:14:57

By Ken Jager
Edited by Herija C. Green

Note: All statistics appearing in this article are from Weeks 13-16, unless otherwise noted.

Do Not Bench List - All Positions

Running Back LaDainian Tomlinson, San Diego Chargers: Tomlinson (hamstring) worked for only a half again last week, but it was still enough to appease fantasy owners with 19 carries for 107 yards and a touchdown. Tomlinson now leads the NFL with 1,418 rushing yards. Despite feeling a hamstring twinge in Week 16's game, it shouldn't be a concern this week. With the Chargers needing a win to lock up the No. 3 seed in the playoffs, they will only turn to backups once they have the game in hand, much like how they've done the last two weeks. Plus, Tomlinson will almost certainly want to hang on to the rushing title. Consider Tomlinson as a strong play as a No. 2 option against a weak Oakland Raiders rushing defense in Week 17.
Wide Receiver Brandon Marshall, Denver Broncos: As Denver's offense continues to struggle, Marshall is still turning in solid numbers as the team's top receiving option. His six catches for 75 yards last week didn't produce a touchdown, but that's nothing new. For the season, Marshall is in the league's top 10 of nearly every wide receiver statistical category except for touchdowns, where he's 24th with six total. He'll face a decent Minnesota Vikings squad fighting for a playoff position this week. As a result, he's a weak play as a No. 1 fantasy option.
Tight End Antonio Gates, San Diego Chargers: Gates has turned into somewhat of a fantasy dud the last four weeks, and after another slow performance last week it's hard to expect that Gates will play much of a factor again this week. San Diego has already clinched a playoff spot and will likely continue to rest the key starters more than usual. Gates is a strong play against a struggling Oakland defense, but lower your expectations as he's a low-end No. 1 or bench candidate.
Tight End Tony Gonzalez, Kansas City Chiefs: Gonzalez took advantage of a good matchup and posted 10 catches for 137 yards against the Detroit Lions last week. Gonzalez eclipsed the 1,000-yard receiving mark for the season in the game and doesn't figure to slow down this week as the Chiefs are playing for pride. The team's leading receiver in three of the last four games goes against a good New York Jets defense this week and is a weak play, but Gonzalez is still safe to deploy as a No. 1 tight end.

Quarterbacks

Player	Team	Gm	Pass Yds/G	Pass TD/G	INT/G	Rush Yards/G	Rush TD/G
Jay Cutler	Denver Broncos	4	216.8	1.25	1.00	21.0	0.00
Brodie Croyle	Kansas City Chiefs	3	139.3	1.00	1.33	2.0	0.00
JaMarcus Russell	Oakland Raiders	3	49.7	0.33	1.00	1.3	0.00
Philip Rivers	San Diego Chargers	4	179.0	1.25	0.75	0.0	0.00

Cutler - Cutler struggled against a hot San Diego team last week, completing just 14 of 32 passes for 155 yards and no touchdowns. He also tossed two interceptions and lost a fumble, while rushing three times for 42 yards and being sacked four times. It's been a largely inconsistent season for Cutler, providing a few fantasy marvels and a seemingly equal amount of fantasy bombs. But Denver wouldn't mind playing spoilers for Minnesota this week, so Cutler should have a full day of work and is a safe option as a No. 1 quarterback.

Croyle - Croyle (hand) injured his right hand last week after surrendering a 61-yard interception return for a touchdown in the second quarter. Quarterback Damon Huard took over and filled in admirably. Croyle is questionable this week against a good Jets defense. If he's unable to go, Huard is expected to be the one to try and snap the team's eight-game losing streak. Either would be a weak play, and the Kansas City offense is too volatile to use one of these quarterbacks in the last week of the season.

Russell - The rookie quarterback is set to get his first NFL start this week and it figures to be a stiff test for this year's first overall draft pick. In his first extended period of work last week, Russell looked like a rookie by completing just seven of his 23 passes for 83 yards, one touchdown and three interceptions. He also lost a fumble in two carries for zero yards. Russell should not be a fantasy option this weekend versus San Diego, and you should leave this weak play stashed away until at least next season.

Rivers - Rivers was able to let the running game take control again last week, and all indications lead us to believe that will happen again this week against Oakland's uninspiring run defense. Rivers finished 17-for-25 for 189 yards and a touchdown. Plus, if this week's game is decided early, Rivers could see some time resting on the bench as the Chargers prepare for the first round of the NFL playoffs. Rivers is a strong play, but be cautious and figure him no better than a low-end No. 1 or bench option.

Running Backs

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rush Yds/G	Rush TD/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Travis Henry	Denver Broncos	4	10.50 (18.05)	3.00 (30.27)	27.8	0.75	0.00	0.0	0.00
Selvin Young	Denver Broncos	4	12.75 (21.92)	1.75 (17.65)	64.2	0.00	2.25	8.2	0.00
Kolby Smith	Kansas City Chiefs	4	21.00 (31.79)	1.50 (28.57)	59.2	0.00	3.25	19.2	0.00
Dominic Rhodes	Oakland Raiders	2	21.00 (15.84)	1.50 (9.30)	78.0	0.00	2.00	9.0	0.00
LaMont Jordan	Oakland Raiders	3	6.00 (6.79)	0.33 (3.10)	8.0	0.00	1.33	5.7	0.00

Henry - Henry played second fiddle to Young last week, and that doesn't expect to change for this week. He had just four carries for 11 yards in that game and it's clear his injured knee still isn't at 100 percent. Don’t expect Henry to do much this week, as Young will likely get the bulk of the carries. Henry's red zone attention makes him a stretch as a No. 3 back, but he is a weak play against the league-leading Minnesota run defense.

Young - Young received the most carries last week, 10 to Henry's four, but he was not the team's leading rusher. Cutler actually led the team in rushing with 42 yards, to Young's 39, so it's evident this offense has some problems. Young can be a No. 3 back this week, but sharing a few carries with Henry and facing a lockdown Minnesota run defense makes Young a weak play.

Smith - Smith turned in a decent game last week with 17 carries for 60 yards and seven receptions for 55 yards. This rookie was in a tough situation having to take over for two injured running backs and had to assume the starting role. Though he's rated as a low-end No. 3 fantasy back for Week 17, this could be a sleeper pick as he faces a marginal Jets run defense.

Rhodes - Rhodes handled the starting running back duties last week in place of injured running back Justin Fargas (knee) and carried 27 times for 115 yards. He'll likely get another nod as the team's starter this week against the Chargers and is a solid No. 3 option for the final weekend. He also has a chance at greater production if San Diego decides to rest their starters in the second half.

Jordan - His early-season success aside, Jordan has seen minimal action in recent weeks, including a goose egg in Week 16. With Rhodes seeming to have a firm hold of the team's starting slot, Jordan doesn't figure to get much, if any, action in the final week. Look elsewhere for a running back if you need a desperation fill-in.

Wide Receivers

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Javon Walker	Denver Broncos	3	5.33 (6.88)	0.00 (0.00)	1.67	13.7	0.00
Dwayne Bowe	Kansas City Chiefs	4	9.75 (14.76)	0.50 (9.52)	5.00	62.8	0.25
Jerry Porter	Oakland Raiders	4	7.50 (11.31)	1.50 (18.61)	3.25	38.0	0.50
Chris Chambers	San Diego Chargers	4	6.50 (9.51)	0.75 (6.25)	3.50	70.0	0.25

Walker - Walker (knee) has been slow to fully recover from his knee injury, helping limit his role in the offense for the better part of the season. He caught just two passes for 14 yards in last week's blowout loss. With Marshall receiving a large majority of the looks, Walker doesn't figure much into the season finale either, so leave this weak play on the bench against Minnesota this week.

Bowe - Bowe had a good game last week collecting eight passes for 97 yards and one touchdown. Despite a shaky offense around him, he is having solid rookie campaign (69 receptions, 982 yards, five touchdowns) and is poised to break the 1,000-yard receiving mark this week. He's on the road against a Jets defense giving up an average of just 97.5 yards and 0.25 touchdowns per game in the last four games. Bowe is a weak play as a low-end No. 3 receiver as a result.

Porter - Porter will try and team up with Russell again this week, though he didn't find much success doing so last week catching only two passes for 26 yards. Against San Diego next week, Porter and the rest of the Oakland offense shouldn't be able to produce much. Leave this weak play on the bench for the finale, only using him if you need a desperation injury fill-in.

Chambers - Chambers enjoyed one of his better games of the season last week, catching four passes for 71 yards and a touchdown. Chambers has been able to produce more of late with the San Diego running offense opening up more opportunities for the passing game. He is a strong play this week against Oakland as a No. 2 or 3 option and figures to get some looks in preparation for the NFL playoffs.

Tight Ends

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Tony Scheffler	Denver Broncos	4	5.50 (9.46)	0.50 (5.04)	3.50	46.2	0.25
Zach Miller	Oakland Raiders	4	3.50 (5.28)	0.75 (9.30)	2.00	26.2	0.50

Scheffler - Scheffler mustered only two catches for 37 yards in a down day for the Denver offense last week. That should not be the case this week against Minnesota, whose defense has been susceptible at times to the tight end position. With teammate tight end Daniel Graham (ankle) unlikely to play in Week 17, Scheffler should get his looks. He is a strong play as a solid No. 1 tight end as a result.

Miller - Miller was a solid option for the team's rookie quarterback, catching three passes for 27 yards and a touchdown. Against the Chargers this week, the rookie tight end is a low-end No. 1 option as the San Diego defense is allowing an average of 4.25 receptions and 51.5 yards per game to the tight end position over the last four weeks. Could Russell/Miller be a potent combo in the future?

Place Kickers

Player	Team	Gm	XP/G	XPA/G	FG/G	FGA/G	Kick Pnts/G
Jason Elam	Denver Broncos	4	2.00	2.00	1.75	1.75	7.2
John Carney	Kansas City Chiefs	4	1.50	1.50	0.50	0.50	3.0
Sebastian Janikowski	Oakland Raiders	4	1.75	1.75	0.75	1.25	4.0
Nate Kaeding	San Diego Chargers	4	3.25	3.25	2.00	2.25	9.2

Elam - Elam still hasn't missed a kick since Week 9, but he got only one opportunity last week, connecting on a 23-yarder in the third quarter. His season finale opponent, Minnesota, is only allowing an average of one field goal attempt per game during the last four games. Sit Elam down in Week 17.

Carney - Carney didn't have a field goal attempt in Week 16, hitting both of his two extra point tries. Against the Jets this week, Carney shouldn't be on any fantasy radar. Leave him on the waiver wire for the season finale.

Janikowski - Janikowski connected on a 41-yard field goal last week, but that was all the action he saw. That's three fantasy stinkers in a row, and he could be in line for a fourth this week against the punishing San Diego defense. Janikowski should be benched this week.

Kaeding - Another productive week for Kaeding (leg) is summed up with three field goals and two extra point conversions. This came after suffering a lower-left leg bruise on the opening kickoff. He should still handle place-kicking duties, but likely won't perform kickoffs in Week 17. Use Kaeding as a solid No. 1 play against Oakland this week.

Defensive Teams

Team	Gm	Off Pnts Allw/G	INT/G	Sacks/G	FR/G	DEF/ST TD/G
Denver Broncos	4	23.8	0.50	1.75	1.00	0.0
Kansas City Chiefs	4	27.0	0.50	1.75	0.00	0.0
Oakland Raiders	4	27.5	1.25	1.50	0.75	0.0
San Diego Chargers	4	11.0	3.00	3.50	0.50	0.2

Broncos - The Broncos defense gave up 23 points in a 20-point loss to the Chargers last week, sacking the quarterback twice and recovering one fumble. The Denver defense hasn't been that great overall this season, only performing really well against weak offenses. Minnesota, this week's opponent, does not have a weak offense. With developing quarterback Tavaris Jackson and the two-headed running back monster, Minnesota is fighting for the final playoff spot in the NFC. Look for another defensive option for Week 17.

Chiefs - For the most part, the Chiefs defense hasn't been terrible this season. The reason for the team's eight-game slide is largely due to the offense. A worthy performance by the Kansas City defense last week after giving up early points put the team in position to pick up a victory, though the Chiefs ultimately fell short, 25-20. This defense has one more chance to shine this season against the Jets and their anemic offense. Kansas City is a strong play this week as a No. 1 defense.

Raiders - The Oakland defense's worst two performances of the season have come in the last three weeks, with the latest being a 49-11 drubbing by the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 16. The Raiders gave up seven touchdowns - three rushing touchdowns to three different players and two touchdown passes each to two quarterbacks. It seems as if the Raiders are ready for the postseason already, but they still have one more game against San Diego at home. It could be another rough one for the Raider Nation, so, despite the possibility of facing backups, it's best to leave this squad on the bench.

Chargers - The Chargers' late-season surge has pushed them into a division championship and reaped benefits for fantasy owners. San Diego leads the league in defense the last four weeks, giving up just 11.0 points per game and continuing to pick off passes like they're grapes from a vine. The Chargers are fighting for playoff position this week, so don't expect the defense to lie down against Oakland. San Diego is a strong play as a No. 1 defense.