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NFC North Week 17 Fantasy Outlook

December 28, 2007 @ 09:15:38

By Herija C. Green
Edited by Richard Garcia

Note: All statistics appearing in this article are from Weeks 13-16, unless otherwise noted.

Do Not Bench List - All Positions

Quarterback Brett Favre, Green Bay Packers: The elements got to Favre and the Packers in Week 16 as they were routed by the Chicago Bears, 35-7, to knock them out of contention for home field advantage. That makes this Sunday's game against the Detroit Lions essentially meaningless, which means we could see a lot of quarterback Aaron Rodgers (hamstring) provided he is healthy enough to go. Normally we'd say you can't bench Favre, but we don't expect him to play enough to make him a worthwhile fantasy start.
Running Back Ryan Grant, Green Bay Packers: Grant was the only player on the Packers to have a respectable day in Week 16, toting the rock 14 times for 100 yards and a touchdown. However, like Favre, Grant could see a lot of time on the sidelines in the finale. He can still be played as a No. 2 back against a porous Lions run defense, but consider your other options carefully.
Running Back Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings: Peterson authored his third sub-par outing in his last five games in Week 16, totaling just 27 yards on nine carries as Minnesota put their playoff hopes in serious jeopardy with a loss to the Washington Redskins. Despite his recent struggles, Peterson remains a No. 1 back and is one of only a few players left with much to play for this week.
Wide Receiver Greg Jennings, Green Bay Packers: Jennings (ankle) had his touchdown streak snapped at five last week when he managed just three catches for 42 yards in the Windy City. He also suffered a mild ankle sprain but is not expected to miss time because of it. Still, a lingering injury could lead to him heading to the bench early versus the Lions, which makes him no better than a No. 2 or No. 3 option for Week 17.

Quarterbacks

Player	Team	Gm	Pass Yds/G	Pass TD/G	INT/G	Rush Yards/G	Rush TD/G
Kyle Orton	Chicago Bears	2	142.5	0.50	0.50	0.5	0.00
Jon Kitna	Detroit Lions	4	231.2	0.75	1.75	2.0	0.00
Tarvaris Jackson	Minnesota Vikings	4	209.0	1.00	1.50	25.5	0.50

Orton - Eight completions, 101 yards and one touchdown were all Orton could amass in awful weather conditions in Week 16, but it was enough to lead the team to victory. Even in a week where a lot of the top quarterbacks figure to play only partial games Orton still shouldn't be removed from your bench.

Kitna - It was another miserable outing from Kitna as the veteran put the ball in the air just 15 times (completing nine) against the Kansas City Chiefs last week. He can't be trusted in your lineup.

Jackson - Jackson's final numbers were really good from a fantasy perspective in Week 16 as he accounted for three touchdowns (two rushing, one passing) against Washington. In reality, Jackson was a major reason the team fell behind 22-0 at halftime and continues to be an inconsistent presence under center. He's in a must-win situation this week, though, and he can be played as a decent No. 1 quarterback.

Running Backs

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rush Yds/G	Rush TD/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Adrian N. Peterson	Chicago Bears	4	24.75 (37.95)	5.25 (43.29)	57.5	0.25	4.25	39.5	0.00
T.J. Duckett	Detroit Lions	4	8.25 (14.52)	1.50 (17.90)	48.5	0.50	0.50	5.5	0.00
Chester Taylor	Minnesota Vikings	4	12.25 (20.14)	2.00 (21.04)	54.0	0.50	2.75	22.2	0.00

Peterson - Week 16 was unquestionably Peterson's best game as a starter this season, carrying the ball 30 times for 102 yards and a touchdown, all of which set or matched season highs. This week against the New Orleans Saints, who still have an outside shot at a playoff spot, he can be played as a decent No. 2 running back.

Duckett - With running back Kevin Jones (knee) suffering a torn ACL, Duckett took over last week to rush for 102 yards on 15 carries and a touchdown in Detroit's first win since Week 9. The sixth-year veteran figures to get most of the carries this Sunday and could be a valuable player against a Green Bay team that may rest key defensive personnel. View him as a No. 2 or No. 3 option.

Taylor - Taylor was mildly effective in the passing game (five catches, 42 yards) to somewhat offset another porous performance on the ground (six carries, 14 yards) last Sunday night. Despite a decreasing workload, he offers a safer option than a lot of guys on higher profile teams because of Minnesota's need to win against the Denver Broncos. Consider Taylor a solid No. 2 back.

Wide Receivers

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Bernard Berrian	Chicago Bears	4	7.00 (10.73)	0.75 (6.18)	3.25	46.8	0.25
Muhsin Muhammad	Chicago Bears	4	4.50 (6.90)	0.75 (6.18)	2.25	27.2	0.00
Calvin Johnson	Detroit Lions	4	7.00 (12.32)	0.50 (5.97)	3.25	54.2	0.00
Shaun McDonald	Detroit Lions	4	9.50 (16.73)	0.50 (5.97)	5.25	56.0	0.25
Mike Furrey	Detroit Lions	4	5.50 (9.68)	1.25 (14.92)	4.00	38.0	0.00
Donald Driver	Green Bay Packers	4	7.50 (13.12)	1.00 (13.27)	4.75	54.0	0.00
Sidney Rice	Minnesota Vikings	3	4.00 (4.93)	0.67 (5.26)	2.67	28.0	0.33

Berrian - The explosive receiver caught just one pass in Week 16 and has only three catches in the past two weeks. He's not getting involved thanks to Orton's limitations at quarterback and inclement weather, which makes him no better than a very shaky No. 3 or injury replacement this week. However, he can be considered a strong play.

Muhammad - The veteran was completely shut out for the first time all season last Sunday and cannot be trusted in your lineup. Bench him.

Johnson - Johnson's modest output of two catches and 47 yards paced the club in Week 16, and the rookie should only be played as a low-end No. 3 or injury replacement for this week.

McDonald - With Kitna completing just nine passes, there wasn't much to go around for the veteran McDonald as he finished with a pair of receptions for 26 yards. Despite a poor showing, he remains the steadiest option in a disappointing Lions passing game and can be inserted into your lineup as a No. 2 or No. 3 receiver in the finale.

Furrey - Furrey was held without a catch last week and should not be in your lineup in Week 17.

Driver - The veteran led all Green Bay receivers with four catches last week, but he figures to be the first receiver to the bench in a game the Packers don't need to win. Keep him out of your lineup this Sunday.

Rice - Rice (ankle) did not play last week, and his status for Week 17 remains uncertain. He really shouldn't be relied on, though if he does play, he could be used as an injury replacement.

Tight Ends

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Desmond Clark	Chicago Bears	4	3.75 (5.75)	1.00 (8.25)	2.75	32.8	0.50
Greg Olsen	Chicago Bears	4	4.00 (6.13)	1.50 (12.37)	2.00	16.5	0.00
Sean McHugh	Detroit Lions	4	2.25 (3.96)	1.00 (11.94)	1.25	18.0	0.00
Donald Lee	Green Bay Packers	4	4.00 (7.00)	0.50 (6.63)	2.25	26.8	0.50
Visanthe Shiancoe	Minnesota Vikings	4	3.00 (4.93)	0.50 (5.26)	1.75	9.5	0.00

Clark - Clark accounted for the only receiving touchdown of the game last week, finishing the day with two catches for 13 yards. He's been down more than up over the past seven weeks, but he has a nice matchup against a Saints team allowing one touchdown per game to the position in the last month. He is a strong play as a solid No. 1 tight end and can be used a quality one-week play.

Olsen - The first-round pick hasn't had a good game since Week 11 and should not be in your lineup this week.

McHugh - With one or fewer catches in 11 of 14 games played this year, McHugh has no fantasy value and should not be owned.

Lee - It was a tough game for Lee in Week 16 as he caught just a single pass for two yards. That game also featured the return of tight end Bubba Franks, which could cut into his looks this week. Nonetheless, Green Bay doesn't have the depth at tight end that they do at other positions, so Lee still makes a viable fantasy play as a low-end No. 1 tight end with a strong play.

Shiancoe - Shiancoe had four catches last Sunday, but they covered only 20 yards. Making matters worse, he fumbled one of them to help put his team in an even deeper hole. Keep him benched this week.

Place Kickers

Player	Team	Gm	XPA/G	XP/G	FGA/G	FG/G	Kick Pnts/G
Robbie Gould	Chicago Bears	4	1.50	1.50	2.75	2.50	9.0
Jason Hanson	Detroit Lions	4	2.00	2.00	1.75	1.50	6.5
Mason Crosby	Green Bay Packers	4	3.00	3.00	2.00	1.75	8.2
Ryan Longwell	Minnesota Vikings	4	3.25	3.00	1.25	1.00	6.0

Gould - Gould did nice work in terrible conditions last Sunday, making all five of his kicks (two field goals, three extra points) to finish the day with nine points and continue his impressive run over the second half of the season. Start him with confidence as an upper-tier No. 1 place kicker in Week 17.

Hanson - Hanson had his best game in more than a month in Week 16 with 11 points against the Chiefs. However, he is set to venture out into the frozen tundra this Sunday and should only be started if pickings are incredibly slim on your league's waiver wire.

Crosby - The rookie had easily his worst game of the season, netting just a single point after not scoring fewer than five through his first 14 games. Green Bay figures to rest some starters, but they can't rest their kicker. Play him as a solid No. 1 option.

Longwell - Longwell missed his lone field goal attempt and managed just three total points in Week 16. He's been moderate at best over the past month and should be benched this week even in the thin air of Denver.

Defensive Teams

Team	Gm	Off Pnts Allw/G	INT/G	Sacks/G	FR/G	DEF/ST TD/G
Chicago Bears	4	18.0	1.75	1.50	1.00	0.4
Detroit Lions	4	32.2	0.50	2.00	0.25	0.2
Green Bay Packers	4	20.2	1.25	1.00	0.25	0.5
Minnesota Vikings	4	15.0	1.00	2.00	0.75	0.4

Bears - The Bears defense had a 2006 flashback in Week 16, accounting for two touchdowns while holding the Packers to just seven points. Clearly the performance was aided heavily by the weather, which isn't a factor that can be counted on from week to week. Bench the Bears for this Sunday's NFC Championship Game rematch from a season ago against the Saints.

Lions - Detroit had a big day defensively in their final home game of the season, recording four sacks, a safety and returning an interception for a touchdown against Kansas City. We don't like their prospects nearly as well this Sunday on the road in Lambeau Field. Keep them glued to your bench.

Packers - Green Bay's defense couldn't make any big plays, though the 35 points Chicago put on the board was pretty deceiving considering only 21 were scored by the offense, and their special teams had a nightmare game. Still, with nothing to play for you should keep this defensive unit sidelined unless you're truly desperate.

Vikings - The Vikings seemed to bring a lot of heat on Redskins quarterback Todd Collins but finished the game with just two sacks and no forced turnovers. They could be in line for a bounce back performance this week against a sloppy Broncos offense. Consider the Vikings a low-end No. 1 defense with a strong play for the season finale.