Fantasy Football and NFL News, Rumors and Injury Updates

AFC East Week 17 Fantasy Outlook

December 28, 2007 @ 08:40:42

By Christopher Watkins
Edited by Herija C. Green

Note: All statistics appearing in this article are from Weeks 13-16, unless otherwise noted.

Do Not Bench List - All Positions

Quarterback Tom Brady, New England Patriots: Brady has been so good this season that his three-touchdown, 215-yard performance against the Miami Dolphins last week was probably seen as a disappointment to many of his owners. With their playoff position locked against the Dolphins, Brady still threw all the passes for New England in Week 16. He may get most, if not all, of the snaps against the New York Giants in Week 17, because the Patriots seem to be gunning for an undefeated season, and Brady is only one touchdown pass away from tying Indianapolis Colts quarterback Peyton Manning's NFL single-season record of 49. He has a weak play matchup this week, but he's always a strong No. 1 starter.
Running Back Marshawn Lynch, Buffalo Bills: In the sleet and wind last week against a tough Giants defense, Lynch was able to score a rushing touchdown and totaled 112 all-purpose yards. In Week 17, Lynch will face the Philadelphia Eagles, who are giving up one rushing touchdown per game the last four weeks but are only allowing 85.8 yards per game in that same stretch. Lynch has a weak play matchup this week, but he can be used as a strong No. 2 running back.
Wide Receiver Randy Moss, New England Patriots: Moss and Brady hooked up for their 20th and 21st tandem touchdowns of the season in Week 16, leaving Moss only one score shy of retired wide receiver Jerry Rice's single-season receiving touchdown record. In Week 17, they'll face the Giants who are fourth-best in the league giving up only 106.5 receiving yards per game to wide receivers in their last four games. However, the Patriots seem bent on finishing undefeated, with Brady and Moss both pursuing prospective records. Moss has a weak play matchup this week, but he should still be started as a No. 1 receiver.
Wide Receiver Wes Welker, New England Patriots: Welker is second in the NFL in receptions this season, with 101. It seems whenever the Patriots need to be bailed out on third down, Welker is always there. Last week he had a relatively quiet game, and in Week 17 he has a weak play matchup. If the Patriots are able to secure win number 16 early, Welker might be a guy that sees some early rest. You may want to only use Welker in an injury replacement capacity this week.
New England Patriots, Defensive Team: While the offense struggled against the Dolphins in the second half last week, the New England defense stepped up big time, sacking the quarterback an NFL-high seven times and giving up only 241 total yards. Though both teams are headed for the playoffs, the Patriots and Giants both figure to play hard this Saturday. It would be a surprise to see the Giants rest their starters and let the Patriots roll over them to complete an undefeated regular season. That said, the Giants cannot change their playoff position, and they've had injuries all season long. For the record, Giants head coach Tom Coughlin hasn't yet divulged his strategy for the game. The Patriots defense is a strong play matchup in Week 17 and should be started as a strong No. 1 option.

Quarterbacks

Player	Team	Gm	Pass Yds/G	Pass TD/G	INT/G	Rush Yards/G	Rush TD/G
Trent Edwards	Buffalo Bills	4	176.8	1.50	0.75	6.2	0.00
Cleo Lemon	Miami Dolphins	3	242.3	0.67	0.67	8.3	0.00
Chad Pennington	New York Jets	2	225.0	0.50	1.00	4.5	0.00
Kellen Clemens	New York Jets	3	174.0	0.33	1.33	7.3	0.33

Edwards - In adverse weather conditions last Sunday, Edwards was only able to complete nine of his 26 pass attempts but boosted his fantasy value with two touchdown passes. In Week 17 he has a tough road game against the Eagles, who are giving up only 227.2 passing yards and less than a touchdown per game in the last four weeks. Edwards has a weak play matchup and should be benched.

Lemon - Lemon wasn't able to get anything going against New England in Week 16. He did manage one touchdown pass but only garnered 171 yards passing. In Week 17 the Dolphins finish their season at home against the Cincinnati Bengals, who are giving up 1.25 passing touchdowns per game since Week 13. If you're desperate at quarterback this week, Lemon could put up some numbers against a weak Cincinnati defense. He can be used as a marginal No. 1 quarterback option or benched this Sunday.

Pennington - Pennington had a rough time against the Tennessee Titans last week, throwing one touchdown against two interceptions. If he starts Week 17's game against the Kansas City Chiefs, he'll face a defense that has given up 1.75 passing touchdowns per game since Week 13. Check back with KFFL to see if he will get the start over teammate Clemens (ribs). If he does get the nod, Pennington can be used as a weak No. 1 or bench option against Kansas City.

Clemens - Clemens missed the entire Week 16 game against the Titans, and it's unclear whether or not he'll get the starting nod for the season finale. Even if he is able to go, you shouldn't put too much faith in a quarterback of his stature when he's injured. For Week 17, keep Clemens on the bench.

Running Backs

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rush Yds/G	Rush TD/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Jesse Chatman	Miami Dolphins	2	13.00 (9.49)	0.50 (3.35)	32.0	0.00	2.00	17.5	0.00
Samkon Gado	Miami Dolphins	4	9.75 (14.24)	2.50 (33.47)	25.5	0.75	1.00	11.8	0.00
Laurence Maroney	New England Patriots	4	16.00 (25.78)	1.75 (14.84)	80.5	0.50	0.50	19.8	0.00
Thomas Jones	New York Jets	4	21.75 (32.46)	4.25 (35.62)	64.5	0.25	1.75	14.0	0.00
Leon Washington	New York Jets	4	8.25 (12.31)	2.00 (16.76)	33.8	0.50	2.75	19.2	0.00

Chatman - Chatman returned to action in Week 16 and got a large share of the workload. Like his teammates, he wasn't able do much against the Patriots, and on top of that he had to split carries almost evenly with rookie running back Lorenzo Booker. In Week 17, Chatman has a weak play matchup against the Bengals but can be used as a weak No. 3 running back. However, when you finalize your lineup, keep in mind that the Bengals haven't given up a single touchdown to a running back since Week 11.

Gado - Gado saw his fantasy value plummet last week with the return of Chatman. He looked on from the bench while Chatman and Booker split the heavy workload. In Week 17, Gado should be benched, as doesn't figure to see much playing time with the way the carries were divvied up last week.

Maroney - Maroney has been surging in recent weeks, and he had a huge game in Week 16 against Miami when he rolled up 156 yards and a touchdown on only 14 rushing attempts. The Patriots don't seem too keen on resting up for the playoffs, but they've made a habit of breaking up the carries amongst their backs all season. In Week 17, he'll face the Giants, who are giving up 114.2 yards rushing and 48.2 receiving yards per game to running backs since Week 13. Also keep in mind the weather can be unpredictable this time of year at The Meadowlands. Maroney has a strong play matchup this week and can be used as a strong No. 2 starter.

Jones - Despite Washington's recent surge, Jones was the clear workhorse in Week 16, but he was only able to tally 63 total yards in a loss to Tennessee. In Week 17 the Jets will face the Chiefs, who are giving up a whopping 154.8 rushing yards and one touchdown per game to running backs since Week 13, second-worst in the NFL. Jones has a strong play matchup, but the inability of the Jets to move the ball makes him no better than a No. 3 option.

Washington - Washington saw his chances drop off dramatically in Week 16 against the Titans. He only had one rushing attempt and caught two passes, in addition to his kickoff return duties. In Week 17, he's got a strong play matchup against the Chiefs and can be used as a weak No. 3 option.

Wide Receivers

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Lee Evans	Buffalo Bills	4	7.50 (12.78)	0.50 (12.49)	3.25	52.2	0.75
Marty Booker	Miami Dolphins	3	9.00 (9.86)	1.00 (10.04)	5.00	51.0	0.00
Donte' Stallworth	New England Patriots	4	4.00 (6.44)	0.50 (4.24)	1.50	25.5	0.00
Brad Smith	New York Jets	4	6.50 (9.70)	1.50 (12.57)	2.25	22.8	0.25
Jerricho Cotchery	New York Jets	3	9.00 (10.07)	1.00 (6.29)	6.67	108.0	0.33

Evans - Evans found the end zone last week in terrible weather conditions, and he continues to build a rapport with Edwards. In Week 17, he'll face Philadelphia. Since Week 13 the Eagles have given up 160.5 yards and 0.75 touchdowns per game to wide receivers. That makes Evans worth a start as a No. 2 receiver this week.

Booker - Booker (tailbone) seems to be on track to start the Dolphins' Week 17 game against the Bengals. Check back with KFFL to monitor his practice time during the week. If he starts, Booker will have a weak play matchup as a No. 3 or injury replacement against the Bengals who are giving up just 110.2 receiving yards per game to the position since Week 13.

Stallworth - Stallworth's fantasy value remains very low, as he appears to have been supplanted by wideout Jabar Gaffney as the Patriots's No. 3 receiver. He only managed two catches for 25 yards against the Dolphins in Week 16, and he's a weak play for Week 17 against the Giants. Keep him on the bench.

Smith - Smith watched as Cotchery got most of the receiving action in Week 16. He did manage five receptions for just 45 yards but didn't do much to raise his fantasy value. He has a weak play matchup against the Chiefs in Week 17 and should be benched.

Cotchery - Against the Titans last week, Cotchery had a huge game, pulling down eight catches for 152 yards and a touchdown. In Week 17, the Jets will look to finish the season strong, and Cotchery will face a Kansas City defense that has given up 1.50 touchdowns per game to wide receivers since Week 13. That makes him a solid No. 1 receiver option this week.

Tight Ends

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Robert Royal	Buffalo Bills	4	3.00 (5.11)	0.25 (6.24)	2.00	19.0	0.50
David Martin	Miami Dolphins	4	4.25 (6.21)	0.75 (10.04)	2.00	16.0	0.00
Benjamin Watson	New England Patriots	2	6.50 (5.24)	1.50 (6.36)	3.00	29.5	0.00
Chris Baker	New York Jets	4	5.75 (8.58)	1.25 (10.48)	4.25	41.0	0.00

Royal - Royal was only targeted once in Week 16 and came away with no catches or yards. However his teammate, tight end Michael Gaines, ended up with two catches and a touchdown. In Week 17, the Bills travel to Philadelphia to face an Eagles defense that hasn't given up a touchdown to a tight end since Week 9. The emergence of Gaines and Philadelphia's ability to keep tight ends out of the end zone makes Royal a weak play this week. He should be benched.

Martin - Martin and the rest of the Dolphins struggled to move the ball against New England in Week 16, and Martin was only able to catch two passes for 31 yards. In Week 17, the Bengals visit Miami, and while they have given up 46.5 yards per game receiving to tight ends since Week 13, the Dolphins's poor offensive play makes Martin a weak play, and he should be benched.

Watson - Watson (ankle) missed his second straight game last week against the Dolphins. It isn't clear whether or not he will be able to go against the Giants this Saturday night, so check back with KFFL during the week to determine his status. If he is able to play, he might be worth a start if you have limited options at the position. The Giants have given up 46.8 yards and 0.50 touchdowns per game to tight ends since Week 13.

Baker - Last week, Baker managed four catches and 40 yards against a tough Tennessee defense. In Week 17, Baker will face a Chiefs defense giving up only 35.0 yards and 0.25 touchdowns per game to the position in the last four weeks. If you're short on options, Baker can be used this week as a lower-tier starting tight end.

Place Kickers

Player	Team	Gm	XP/G	XPA/G	FG/G	FGA/G	Kick Pnts/G
Rian Lindell	Buffalo Bills	4	2.00	2.00	1.50	1.75	6.5
Jay Feely	Miami Dolphins	4	1.25	1.25	1.50	1.50	5.8
Stephen Gostkowski	New England Patriots	4	3.00	3.00	1.50	1.75	7.5
Mike Nugent	New York Jets	4	1.25	1.50	2.25	2.75	8.0

Lindell - Considering the conditions Lindell played in last week, it's impressive that he was even able to make his three extra point attempts. Over the course of the last four weeks, his Week 17 opponent, the Eagles, has surrendered an average of 7.8 points per game to kickers. You could plug Lindell in for a one-week play as a lower-tier kicker this week if your regular kicker has a bad matchup. Otherwise, keep Lindell on the bench.

Feely - Feely wasn't exactly busy last Sunday, making his only extra point attempt at New England. His fantasy outlook isn't much brighter in Week 17, as the Dolphins face a Bengals defense that has only given up five points per game to kickers since Week 13. Bench him.

Gostkowski - Only needed for extra point attempts last week, Gostkowski made good on all four against the Dolphins. In Week 17 the Patriots will travel to face the Giants, who are giving up 7.5 points per game to kickers since Week 13. Keep an eye on the weather reports leading into the game Saturday night and, if the conditions aren't terrible, Gostkowski can be used as a lower-tier starting kicker in Week 17.

Nugent - Nugent had one field goal attempt and one extra point attempt in Week 16 - and he missed them both. It was a tough game for one of the top fantasy kickers in the game in recent weeks. However, in Week 17 Nugent will face the Chiefs, who are yielding 10.5 points per game to kickers since Week 13; second-worst in the NFL during that span. Nugent is a strong play against the Chiefs and a No. 1 starting kicker option.

Defensive Teams

Team	Gm	Off Pnts Allw/G	INT/G	Sacks/G	FR/G	DEF/ST TD/G
Buffalo Bills	4	16.2	1.25	2.75	1.25	0.2
Miami Dolphins	4	29.0	1.00	3.25	0.75	0.2
New York Jets	4	13.8	1.50	1.75	0.75	0.2

Bills - Despite giving up 26 points and 385 yards to the Giants in Week 16, the Bills defense forced four turnovers and got two sacks. In Week 17 the Bills are a strong play against the Eagles, who are averaging 1.75 turnovers per game since Week 13. If you don't have a top-tier defense, consider using Buffalo in Week 17.

Dolphins - Although they held it together in the second half in Week 16, the Dolphins got slapped around against the Patriots, as expected. This week they face the Bengals, who are just as likely to run up yards on Miami as they are to fall flat on their faces. You just never know with the 2007 Bengals. The Dolphins are a weak play matchup in Week 17 and should be benched.

Jets - Though the Jets lost in Week 16, they were able to hold an improving Tennessee offense to only 10 points. They have forced 2.25 turnovers per game since Week 13, and in Week 17 they will hope to finish strong against the Chiefs, who have scored 13.5 points per game since Week 13, which is second only to Miami in offensive futility. Those factors add up to the Jets being a strong play this week, and they can be used as a strong No. 1 team defense.