Matchups to Exploit - Week 17
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December 27, 2007 @ 04:13:24
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By Hot off the Wire Network Contributors
Edited by Nicholas Minnix
Patriots QB Tom Brady vs. Giants CB Aaron Ross
Ross is a good, aggressive cornerback, but Brady is liable to scar him for life. Just six points from leading the highest scoring offense of all time, Brady typically will be looking to the air to lock down his team's place in history. He could look straight at Ross, who should see plenty of New England's wide receivers, like Randy Moss, the most dynamic receiver in the game with 21 touchdown catches and 92 receptions for 1,393 yards. If, by chance, Ross covers Moss, there's always wideout Wes Welker to pick up the slack. Welker is actually the Pats' leading receiver with 101 catches for 1,053 yards and eight touchdowns.
Patriots WR Randy Moss vs. Giants CB Sam Madison
Judging by last week's game against the Miami Dolphins, when he forced a couple of downfield throws to him, Brady is determined to get Moss the single-season touchdown record. Wideout Jerry Rice set it with the San Francisco 49ers, with 22, in 1987. Moss had two first-half scores against Miami, and he has 21 scores for the season. Madison, a 33-year-old and 11-year veteran, likely will need help covering Moss.
Patriots OT Nick Kaczur vs. Giants DE Michael Strahan
Three of New England's five regular starting linemen - the center, left guard and left tackle - made the Pro Bowl. The fourth, right offensive guard Stephen Neal, has missed several games with a shoulder injury. Kaczur is the weak link on the line, and a majority of the sacks Brady has absorbed this season have come from Kaczur's side. With tight ends Kyle Brady (foot) and Benjamin Watson (ankle) iffy, expect to see a lot of max-protect lines. Look for an offensive lineman like Ryan O'Callaghan or Wesley Britt to help Kaczur and ensure that Brady stays upright and healthy heading into the playoffs.
Giants QB Eli Manning vs. Patriots pass defense
Another cold-weather game, which means Manning won't have good passing stats. The question is not the numbers, but the turnovers. He lost two fumbles (of five he committed) and was intercepted twice last week at the Buffalo Bills. His passer rating has plummeted as December has progressed, going from 63.0 against the Chicago Bears to 88.0 against the Philadelphia Eagles back down to 63.1 and 32.2 his last two games. The specter of defensive backs Asante Samuel, Rodney Harrison and Ellis Hobbs should get his attention immediately. Samuel leads the Patriots with six interceptions, one of which he has returned for a touchdown, while nickel back Randall Gay has three. Hobbs has 10 passes defensed.
Giants RB Brandon Jacobs vs. Patriots run defense
Jacobs (ankle) sprained his left ankle in the third quarter last week, but he came back into the lineup to snap off several lengthy runs after that. If he's full-go, he'll be instrumental in keeping the heat off Manning; the Giants will want to keep the ball on the ground to bind the New England offense to the sidelines. Jacobs had 24 carries for 145 yards and two touchdowns, including a 43-yarder, against the Bills last week. Nobody has run well against the Pats this year, and they're ranked 10th against the run. Linebacker Tedy Bruschi is the chief run-stopper with 89 tackles, and fellow linebacker Mike Vrabel is third with 75. The two of them create a swarming duo that plug holes and get penetration.
Seahawks QB Matt Hasselbeck vs. Falcons pass defense
With John Abraham lurking at right defensive end, a lot will depend on whether Walter Jones is playing much at left offensive tackle. For the most part, Hasselbeck has been very sharp all season, and the Falcons haven't been as apt to blitz as a lot of other teams have against the Seahawks. Hasselbeck will work at getting wideout D.J. Hackett (ankle) the ball, considering how little he has played. He also will continue to look for receiver Bobby Engram, who needs 10 receptions to reach the 100-reception milestone for the season. Then again, if they get out to a big lead, expect Seneca Wallace to play quarterback for a big portion of the second half.
Seahawks RB Shaun Alexander vs. Falcons run defense
Regardless of the divergent team records, this is the biggest game of the season for Alexander and the Seahawks running game. He did relatively well in Sunday's game against the Baltimore Ravens - 10 carries, 73 yards, including two runs of 17 yards and another of 19, plus a superb 14-yard touchdown on a screen pass. As a team, Seattle ran for a season-high 144 yards last week against Baltimore. Undoubtedly, the Seahawks want to build on that considering this is their worst season running the football (96.8 yards per game) since 1991. If they have any designs on challenging for the NFC crown, they have to get Alexander and the line in sync. That makes Sunday a big game for the ground game, regardless of the final score. Look for them to try to pound the ball at the Falcons. They need to know if Alexander can be counted on for the playoffs.
Falcons OT Tyson Clabo vs. Seahawks DE Patrick Kerney
Kerney, a former Falcon, leads the league in sacks with 14.5 this season. Injuries had let him to battle Clabo in practice basically for the two previous seasons; Kerney is very familiar with his footwork and techniques. Depending on how long head coach Mike Holmgren goes with his starters, Kerney could very easily add to his league-leading sack total.
Lions QB Jon Kitna vs. Packers secondary
There's a decent chance Packers cornerback Charles Woodson (toe) will either play only a little bit or not at all Sunday to rest his chronic toe injury. Cornerback Al Harris (heel) is in a similar boat. By the second half, Kitna could be working against a defense missing two of its best players, and the Lions' multiple-receiver offense might be in for a big day.
Lions RB T.J. Duckett vs. Packers run defense
The last time these teams played, the Lions' game plan was to run the ball and keep Packers quarterback Brett Favre off the field as much as possible. Detroit ran the ball well, rushing for 134 yards. Even though that wasn't enough - they lost, 37-26 - they'll probably do the same thing again. Duckett is the Lions' No. 1 back now that Kevin Jones (knee) has a torn anterior cruciate ligament. Duckett had seven carries for 29 yards against the Packers last time in a backup role, but he had 15 carries for 105 yards and a touchdown Sunday against the Kansas City Chiefs. The Packers' run defense ranks 16th in the NFL.
Lions OT Damien Woody vs. Packers DE Aaron Kampman
The last time these teams played, Kampman dominated backup offensive lineman Blaine Saipaia, who was pressed into duty when right offensive tackle Jonathan Scott (hamstring) suffered a hamstring injury. After the game, Woody took over at right tackle and stabilized the position. Woody (shoulder) left Sunday's game against Kansas City with a shoulder injury but is expected to play this week.
Packers WRs James Jones and Koren Robinson vs. Lions secondary
Jones has only two receptions in the last three games, but he and Robinson could be more prominent components in the passing game this week, especially in the second half. Starting receiver Greg Jennings (ankle) is iffy because of an ankle injury, and head coach Mike McCarthy might hold wideout Donald Driver's playing time to a half or so. That would put Jones and Robinson on the field a lot and give them a chance for productive days.
49ers QB Shaun Hill vs. Browns pass defense
Hill (back, ribs) is nursing a sore back and bruised ribs. He has played very well since entering the lineup after injuries to Alex D. Smith (shoulder) and Trent Dilfer (concussion). Hill has thrown five touchdown passes and one interception in 10 quarters of action. He does not need much practice time to get ready for Sunday's game. He did not practice for three weeks prior to getting on the field for the first time in his six-year career with a half of solid football against the Minnesota Vikings Dec. 9. Hill does a good job of spreading the ball around and getting it into the hands of guys that can make plays. The key is that he has been getting the offense's biggest weapons, running back Frank Gore and tight end Vernon Davis, involved. There should be some opportunities against the Browns to make plays. The Browns have the league's 31st-ranked defense.
49ers RB Frank Gore vs. Browns run defense
Gore has been an important part of the 49ers offense in the past several weeks. He has run the ball effectively and also been a key contributor in the passing game. Gore went over the 1,000-yard mark last week (1,008) and averages 4.3 yards per carry with five touchdowns. He also has a team-high 51 catches for 415 yards and a touchdown. He is the key man in the 49ers offense, as they will try to get him involved in both phases of the game. If the 49ers remain close into the second half, Gore has an ability to wear down a defense. Some of his bigger plays occur in the second halves of games. The Browns had been making progress against the run, but they reverted to their old ways at the Cincinnati Bengals; Cincinnati running back Kenny Watson ran for 130 yards, and the Bengals totaled 155. The Browns rank 18th against the rush, allowing 130.7 yards per game.
Browns WR Braylon Edwards vs. 49ers CB Nate Clements
Edwards (6-foot-3) had two touchdowns versus Cincinnati to set a franchise record with 15 touchdown catches, surpassing former wideout Gary Collins' 34-year-old mark of 13. Edwards, who is heading to his first Pro Bowl, has 77 catches for 1,222 yards and a 15.9-yard average. Clements (6-foot-1) is one of the taller cornerbacks in the league, and that should come in handy against Edwards, who likes to jump. Clements is a Northeast Ohio native and leads San Francisco with four interceptions, three forced fumbles and 15 passes defensed. Head coach Mike Nolan said Clements should be in the Pro Bowl. It's also a battle between alumni from college rivals: the University of Michigan (Edwards) versus Ohio State (Clements).
Jaguars QBs David Garrard and Quinn Gray vs. Texans secondary
Garrard lit up the Texans secondary for 213 yards and two scores passing in the first meeting between the two teams in mid-October - a 37-17 Jaguars win. Garrard needed all of those numbers, though, as the Jaguars led by just a touchdown entering the fourth quarter before erupting for three scores. Garrard is playing at a high level, but he may not play beyond the second quarter, whether the team is winning or losing. Gray has shown that he's more than capable of coming off the bench, as evidenced by his two touchdown passes and 121.9 quarterback rating in last Sunday's game against the Oakland Radiers. With Houston's pass defense ranking 13th in the AFC, the Jaguars may try to exploit it early and often.
Jaguars RB Maurice Jones-Drew vs. Texans run defense
Running back Fred Taylor has a streak of five consecutive games of rushing for more than 100 yards. However, with this game having no impact on where the Jaguars are slotted in the playoffs, don't expect Taylor to make it six in a row, if he even plays. This week, that means added playing time for Jones-Drew, who had 140 combined rushing and receiving yards last week while looking like he did a year ago as a rookie. He accumulated 260 total yards (including kickoff returns) in the first meeting with the Texans and could approach that mark again with all of the playing time he'll likely get. Middle linebacker DeMeco Ryans is the Texans' only Pro Bowler. He'll have his sights set on Jones-Drew, especially on draw plays and screen passes that the Jaguars running back has been so effective on this year. Last week against the Colts, the Texans struggled against the run, allowing 120 yards to backup backs, mostly. The Texans didn't fare well the last time they played Jacksonville, either. They couldn't contain Jones-Drew or Taylor and gave up 244 rushing yards. This will likely be a matchup that favors the Jaguars.
Texans QB Sage Rosenfels vs. Jaguars secondary
Rosenfels has filled in for Matt Schaub (shoulder) the past three games. Rosenfels has had at least 200 passing yards in each of his starts and will look to make it four in a row against a secondary that ranks No. 11 in the AFC. However, the Jaguars have turned in three consecutive strong outings in which they've permitted 99, 106 and 105 passing yards while not allowing any of their three opponents to complete 50 percent of their passes. If Rosenfels could play the whole game as well as he does in the fourth quarter, Houston would have a chance of knocking off the Jaguars. He leads the NFL with a 118.5 fourth quarter passer rating and has thrown 11 of his 14 touchdown passes in the final period. The 11 scoring tosses in the final 15 minutes is a league-high.
Texans RB Darius Walker vs. Jaguars run defense
Neither Walker nor running back Ron Dayne (ankle) were activated against the Jaguars earlier this season. While Dayne may be healthy, he likely will not get all of the carries. This will be a big game for Walker, because he is still playing to make the roster next season. He will be motivated when he's on the field. It won't be easy for him, though. The Texans only rushed for 61 yards in the last outing against Jacksonville.
Texans WR Andre Johnson vs. Jaguars CB Rashean Mathis
Johnson is still trying to make up for the seven games he missed with a knee injury earlier this year. He has only played in eight games but has topped the 100-yard mark in receiving yards four times. His 97.1 yards per game is the NFL's best average, but he has only reached that average once in his last five games; it came in a 116-yard effort against the Tennessee Titans. He has recorded between 74 and 86 yards receiving in his last three outings. Mathis will likely be on Johnson at the start, but like several other key Jaguars starters, he may play less than a half to avoid a possible injury. Mathis has not had the type of Pro Bowl year he experienced a year ago, when he had a team-record eight interceptions. He only has one this year, and he has been burned several times for big gains by opposing receivers.
Panthers WR Steve Smith vs. Buccaneers CB Ronde Barber
Against the Dallas Cowboys, Smith had his first big game in two months, and he has developed a comfort level with rookie quarterback Matt Moore, who will start his third straight game. Barber has plenty of familiarity with Smith, who will have a big speed advantage. Barber won't have to handle Smith all by himself, though. In Tampa Bay's Cover 2 defense, Barber will get plenty of help from the safeties.
Buccaneers QBs Jeff Garcia and Luke McCown vs. Panthers pass rush
The Panthers have all of the ingredients necessary for a very effective pass rush. They will get into the Bucs backfield and force Garcia to run or throw the ball sooner than he wants. The key is for Garcia to be quick and accurate with his hot reads and throws. He's far more comfortable in the Bucs' scheme now than he was when these teams first met this season, so he has a bit of an advantage in that regard. On the downside, Garcia is a little slower to do typical wear and tear. Look for him to go down hard a few times today. That possibility, or even the threat of it, may prompt the Bucs to pull him very early with the playoffs on the horizon. McCown, who will likely play in relief of Garcia, will run into the same difficulties.
Buccaneers RB Earnest Graham vs. Panthers LB Jon Beason
The Bucs will run Graham between the tackles as well as throw over the middle and into the flats to him. He has the power, speed and maneuverability to make big plays and keep the chains moving. However, Beason presents a bit of a problem for him. Beason is very quick; he does a good job of avoiding and shedding blockers. He'll meet Graham head on in the running game, and he has the speed to chase him down while Graham is a receiver. The key for the Bucs is to get Beason to bite on play-action fakes. He tends to do that rather often, so the Bucs can set him up with fakes into the middle as well as passes to the flats and sidelines.
Buccaneers WR Joey Galloway vs. Panthers CB Ken Lucas
Lucas will draw the assignment against Galloway, for as long as Galloway is in there. Lucas has played well in coverage all season, and he has the skills to stay with Galloway in the short game. Galloway is at his best in the deep passing game, though. The Panthers will rely on free safety Deke Cooper to give Lucas some help in the deep game.
Bills RB Marshawn Lynch vs. Eagles run defense
The one thing the Bills offense can do with a little bit of success is run the ball. Look for Lynch to get 20-plus carries on a cold day. The Bills need to try to shorten the game because the Eagles offense is hot. Lynch is the one bankable asset the Bills' attack has had this year. He has gained 1,010 yards in his rookie season despite missing three games with a high ankle sprain. Expect Lynch to once again be the focus of the offense, but it will be against a solid Eagles defense that ranks ninth overall and fifth against the run. They're led by defensive tackles Mike Patterson and Brodrick Bunkley. The Bills, whose passing attack ranks 30th in the league, will have to throw it better than they usually do to win this game.
Bills WR Lee Evans vs. Eagles CB Lito Sheppard
This is an interesting matchup between two very good players. Unfortunately for Evans, he doesn't have as good a cast around him as Sheppard does. Evans will finish off a disappointing season. He has 54 catches for 847 yards. The Bills simply do not have enough other weapons in the passing game to complement him. They need a top-flight No. 2 receiver and a top-flight tight end. Until then, it's too easy for the defense to focus on Evans.
Eagles QB Donovan McNabb vs. Bills pass defense
Buffalo ranks 27th against the pass, and McNabb finally seems healthy and confident. Despite the 7-8 record, the Eagles offense is tied for sixth in the league. He wants to solidify his status as the starter heading into the offseason. McNabb has said the organization's declarations about not trading him didn't make a big difference to him, but his performances the past few weeks suggest otherwise. McNabb is looking to finish a season healthy for the first time since 2004.
Saints QB Drew Brees vs. Bears pass defense
With 11 completions against Chicago, Brees can establish an NFL record for completions in a season. That would top former Raiders quarterback Rich Gannon's existing mark of 419, set in 2002. Brees can also set a Saints record for passing yards if he throws for 311 or more, which would better the mark of 4,418 yards he set last season. With the Saints running attack in disarray because of multiple injuries, it's likely the Saints will have to throw the ball often in order to generate any offense this week, despite what the weather conditions might be. The Bears have allowed 7.55 yards per passing attempt to opponents this year but have given up only 16 passing touchdowns, tied for third fewest in the league.
Saints WR Marques Colston vs. Bears CB Charles Tillman
This is a rematch of a battle the Bears worked to create last season in the NFC title game when they had the physical Tillman shadow Colston across Soldier Field. The receiver has only improved in his second season. The Bears don't want him to be able to take advantage of a major size difference with rookie cornerback Trumaine McBride, so they are likely to have Tillman on Colston detail. Colston has been the top target for Brees this season. He has developed into one of the top receivers in the game, with good size, hands and the ability to break the big play.
Bears RB Adrian Peterson vs. Saints LB Scott Fujita
Peterson didn't run wild in the Bears' upset of Green Bay, but he did run well enough to get 30 handoffs and help the offense remain in a ball control mode that moved the chains. The key was finding some success between the tackles on third downs. Fujita will be in position to make some plays and needs to, as you can expect New Orleans to show eight-man fronts in an effort to force quarterback Kyle Orton to beat them. If the Bears can have early success on the ground with Peterson, it will open up a conservative play-action passing game that could have success with top cornerback Mike McKenzie (knee) on the shelf with a torn ACL.
Bears KR/PR Devin Hester vs. Saints special teams
Ordinary might be the best way to describe New Orleans' special teams coverage this season, not a good omen when going against an extraordinary return man such as Hester. This season, Hester has a 14.3-yard average on 41 punt returns, with three returned for touchdowns, while he has two kickoff returns for scores and a 22.3-yard average on kickoff returns. Saints opponents are averaging 23.3 yards per kick return, and the Saints have allowed one to be brought back for a touchdown. Opponents are averaging eight yards per punt return against the Saints.
Bengals QB Carson Palmer and OT Levi Jones vs. Dolphins pass rush
Palmer can pick a defense apart if he's given time, and he has the weaponry around him to do it. Palmer is completing 64.5 percent of his passes this season and has thrown 23 touchdown passes. This season, he has only been sacked 17 times and has only been sacked more than once in two games. That means he doesn't hold on to the ball long enough to allow pressure to consume him. Cincinnati left offensive tackle Levi Jones and Miami strongside linebacker Joey Porter (shoulder) have history together. The two have had on-field feuds for years. Last March, Porter and his entourage reportedly assaulted Jones in a Las Vegas casino. On the field, Jones will likely go primarily against defensive end Jason Taylor (foot), who is playing with a nagging foot injury, but it hasn't slowed him down much. Taylor, a Pro Bowler, contributed seven tackles and a sack last week against Patriots quarterback Tom Brady. Taylor (11 sacks) continues to be a source of frustration for opposing offenses considering how much he moves around before the snap. He will present problems for Jones because he is similar to Kansas City Chiefs defensive end Jared Allen, who earlier this season beat Jones three times in the first quarter for 2.5 sacks. The Bengals will want to balance their offense with the run and pass. Porter plays into the mix, too. Despite the slow start, he has come on strong in the second half of the season. He's presently second on the team with 62 tackles, and he registered two sacks and a forced fumble against New England. Porter and Taylor are the only two players in the NFL to have recorded five or more sacks every year since 2000. Porter is battling through a shoulder injury, but his growing familiarity with Miami's schemes is helping him settle in. Jones said he is staying focused on Taylor, but Porter will be on that side, too. Jones has played hurt most of the season but has managed to make 12 starts and play in 14 games.
Bengals RB Kenny Watson vs. Dolphins run defense
The Dolphins are last in the NFL in run defense at 158.6 yards allowed per game. Last week, New England tailback Laurence Maroney had runs of 51 and 59 yards, the longest allowed by Miami this season. Look for Watson to get another start and the bulk of the carries. Last week, he went for 130 yards for the second time this season, and with 106 in the finale, he would reach 800. Alex Stepanovich will start at center for the injured Eric Ghiaciuc (foot), so there could be some drop-off.
Bengals WRs Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh vs. Dolphins CBs Michael Lehan and Will Allen
Johnson and Houshmandzadeh make up the NFL's second most productive receiving tandem; they trail only New England's Randy Moss and Wes Welker in terms of yardage. The Bengals' speedy duo has combined to catch 192 balls for 2,362 yards and 18 touchdowns. At 6-foot-1, they're both taller, faster and more athletic than any cornerback the Dolphins could put on them, so expect plenty of zone coverage from the Dolphins. Allen is the Dolphins' most consistent cornerback, but he often goes into the slot in nickel coverage, where he's used to blitz the passer. Cornerback Andre' Goodman (knee) usually comes into play during those instances, but he was placed on Injured Reserve this week. Cornerback Travis Daniels (ankle) is also questionable for the game. That means Johnson and Houshmandzadeh could find themselves covered by a safety (Jason Allen, Courtney Bryan or Jereme Perry) in some instances Sunday because of the Dolphins' limited depth, which certainly sounds like trouble.
Cowboys TE Jason Witten vs. Redskins LB London Fletcher
Witten had eight catches for 67 yards in the first meeting. Wideout Terrell Owens (ankle) had four touchdown catches because the Redskins were forced to pay attention to Witten down the middle of the field. Without Owens, Witten will be the focal point of the game plan. Quarterback Tony Romo will look to Witten in tight situations. With 94 receptions, Witten needs nine catches to break the Chiefs' Tony Gonzalez's record of 102 catches in a season by a tight end. The Cowboys have home-field advantage clinched, though, so Witten might not play the entire game.
Cowboys OT Flozell Adams vs. Redskins DE Andre Carter
This matchup becomes more important if Romo doesn't play the entire game. Quarterback Brad Johnson is clearly less mobile than Romo and more apt to take sacks. Washington was able to sack Romo only once in the teams' first meeting. Carter has 52 tackles and a team-high 10.5 sacks this season. He has recorded at least one-half sack in 10 of the Redskins' 15 games. He will try to use his athleticism against Adams, who is headed back to the Pro Bowl. Romo has been sacked only 23 times in more than 500 drop-backs. If Carter has early success, particularly if Johnson is playing, look for Dallas to use a tight end (probably Anthony Fasano) to help Adams.
Redskins TE Chris Cooley vs. Cowboys SS Roy Williams
Cooley, who last week earned his first Pro Bowl berth, leads the Redskins in catches (61), yards (744) and touchdown catches (eight). Before being limited to one catch - a 33-yard touchdown - against Minnesota, Cooley had made 29 catches in the last five games. His Pro Bowl march started against Dallas Nov. 18, when he had eight catches for 89 yards and a touchdown. Most of his work was done in the middle of the field against Williams, including the score. Williams has 83 tackles and two interceptions but has struggled mightily in coverage. In the teams' first meeting, Williams covered Cooley for one half until the Cowboys adjusted and bracketed him a linebacker.
Redskins OT Chris Samuels vs. Cowboys LB DeMarcus Ware
Ware won the first meeting between these two with a sack and three quarterback pressures. Samuels had a difficult time with Ware's speed and his ability to bend coming off the edge. To protect an immobile quarterback like Todd Collins, Samuels will have to be on top of his game. Last week, Ware had two sacks versus Carolina, and he has 13 on the season. The Redskins had success versus Dallas in the first game, when they spread the ball around, but that was when quarterback Jason Campbell (knee) was able to buy time with his legs. With Collins, the Redskins will try to get the ball out of his hands quickly.
RB Kolby Smith vs. Jets run defense
Don't look for Smith to finish on a strong note. While he is running well and earning every yard he gets, the offensive line just hasn't blocked well enough to allow him to have a big game. The Chiefs have also tended to fall behind in recent games, and if that trend continues, they will have to get away from their running game. Rookie running back Jackie Battle replaced Smith as the goal line back for last week's game in Detroit. Look for Battle to replace Smith in such situations in New York as well.
Chiefs TE Tony Gonzalez vs. Jets pass defense
Gonzalez leads all AFC tight ends in receptions with 92 and had 10 catches for 137 yards against the Lions last week. With 813 receptions, he is also two behind Shannon Sharpe, who holds the record for catches all-time by a tight end. He generally fares better with Damon Huard at quarterback, as opposed to Brodie Croyle (hand), so look for Gonzalez's numbers to again spike if Huard plays against the Jets. Croyle has more of a rapport with rookie wideout Dwayne Bowe, while Gonzalez tends to be Huard's favorite receiver. The Chiefs have looked to use shorter pass routes because of pass protection problems, so Gonzalez is often a primary target in the middle of the field. The Jets play a lot of Cover 2 and thus are often vulnerable in the middle, so a tight end of Gonzalez's caliber should be able to find plenty of room.
Jets WR Jerricho Cotchery vs. Chiefs CB Ty Law
Law, a 13th-year pro, is still a formidable cornerback, but Cotchery (finger) has a very hot hand right now. He has 20 receptions for 324 yards in his last three games since returning from a broken finger. Kellen Clemens is expected to return at quarterback after missing the Tennessee Titans game because of injuries. Cotchery has a good rapport with both Clemens and quarterback Chad Pennington. He again is the No. 1 receiver with Laveranues (ankle) Coles done for the season.
Cardinals QB Kurt Warner vs. Rams pass defense
Statistically, few players have been as hot as Warner, who has thrown at least two touchdown passes in his last seven games and is having his best season since his MVP year of 2001. Given that the Cards' running game has sunk, once again, to the bottom of the league (29th), the Cards will need to throw the ball on a Rams team that can be had through the air.
Cardinals WR Anquan Boldin vs. Rams secondary
Boldin (toe) has missed four games this season by hip and toe injuries, but last weekend against Atlanta he caught 13 balls, two of which went for touchdowns. The Rams are coming off perhaps their worst coverage game of the season, Dec. 20 against the Pittsburgh Steelers. With cornerback Tye Hill (wrist) out for the season following wrist surgery, nickel back Ron Bartell has been pressed into service as a starting corner and has played well.
Rookie Jonathan Wade has been picked on as the third corner in nickel packages, though, and he has missed some tackles. One of the hallmarks of Boldin's game is yards after the catch. Don't be surprised if the Cardinals try to isolate Boldin or receiver Larry Fitzgerald (groin) on Wade this Sunday.
Rams RB Steven Jackson vs. Cardinals run defense
Despite missing four full games with a groin injury, and most of a fifth with a back problem, Jackson has played well down the stretch. He needs just 53 yards for his third consecutive 1,000-yard season. Considering not just his own injury situation this season but also the injury situation at quarterback and on the offensive line, reaching 1,000 yards again would be a significant achievement for Jackson. He's facing an Arizona defense that ranks a modest 20th overall in the NFL but is ninth in run defense. The Cards didn't have to deal with Jackson in the teams' first meeting, and that was when nose tackle Gabe Watson was playing at a higher level. Now Jackson is back and looks great. Watson has slipped a bit, and defensive lineman Alan Branch hasn't made much of a rookie impact. Meanwhile, the Cards are having trouble against the pass, a bad harbinger going against St. Louis. It should open things up for Jackson all day.
Chargers RB LaDainian Tomlinson vs. Raiders run defense
Tomlinson is looking to wrap up his second consecutive rushing title, and his chances should be pretty good considering Oakland is ranked 31st in defending the run (147.6 yards allowed per game). Tomlinson has 1,418 yards and has a 102-yard lead over Pittsburgh's Willie Parker (leg), who is out for the rest of the season with a broken leg. Minnesota Vikings running back Adrian Peterson (1,305) and Philadelphia's Brian Westbrook (1,291) are the two runners with a shot at surpassing Tomlinson. The Chargers figure to pull Tomlinson if they get a large lead because they have a playoff game the following weekend.
Chargers TE Antonio Gates vs. Raiders SS Michael Huff and CB Nnamdi Asomugha
In the last three games against the Raiders, Gates has 11 receptions for 165 yards and two touchdowns. Huff has at times done an adequate job in coverage against tight ends, although his playmaking skills (one interception in 31 games) are suspect. Asomugha is Oakland's best all-round defense back and is rangy enough at 6-foot-2, 210 pounds, to deal with Gates during those plays in which Gates is split outside.
Raiders QB JaMarcus Russell vs. Chargers secondary
The Chargers lead the NFL in interceptions (29) and takeaways (44). Both numbers could rise with Russell making his first career start. The No. 1 overall pick in April's draft committed four turnovers (three interceptions, one fumble lost) against Jacksonville last Sunday when he received extended playing time in relief of quarterback Josh McCown. He completed just seven of his 23 passes for 83 yards. Chargers cornerback Antonio Cromartie (10 interceptions) and strong safety Clinton Hart (five interceptions) have combined for 15 of the Chargers' interceptions.
Raiders WR Ronald Curry vs. Chargers CB Antonio Cromartie
Curry, with 54 receptions for 701 yards, will finish as the Raiders' leading receiver for the second straight season. He has been the receiver that Raiders quarterbacks feel most comfortable with for their first time on the job because of his ability to get open on short and intermediate routes. Russell, given his likely rookie propensity to lock on to a receiver, could be victimized by Cromartie, who has become the NFL's leading interceptor this season.
Vikings QB Tarvaris Jackson vs. Broncos CBs Champ Bailey and Dre' Bly
Given that the weather conditions in Denver won't be the best and Jackson's more down than up performance this season, the Vikings aren't going to be looking for Jackson to pass all that much. The Broncos have a horrible run defense, too. It is clear that Minnesota can run the ball, and the Vikings will likely run the ball all day at Denver. After two poor games, Jackson is going to prove that he can at least loosen up the Broncos defense in order for the Vikings to establish the run. Bailey and Bly form an excellent tandem and promise not to make this easy for Jackson or his receivers. Minnesota's front office is going to have some serious questions about its quarterback situation heading into the offseason, and a good outing by Jackson in the regular season finale certainly wouldn't hurt him.
Vikings RB Adrian Peterson vs. Broncos DTs Alvin McKinley and Marcus Thomas
The rookie phenom has not had a 100-yard rushing performance in the past three games, the longest drought he has experienced this season, and it's clear that team's have gone from shifting most of their focus to putting all of their energies on containing Peterson and the Vikings running game. The Broncos' rushing defense is one of the worst in the NFL - it's ranked 30th in the NFL - but the tackles no doubt will consider this an excellent chance to try to go out on a good note in 2007.
Broncos WR Brandon Marshall vs. Vikings CB Cedric Griffin
Marshall will be looking for a big day, and he might get it. He has made it known that he'd like to register 100 catches in his first full season as a starter and just his second season in the NFL. Marshall has had a big season (92 receptions, 1,211 yards, six touchdowns) and should be matched up on Griffin on several occasions. At 6-foot-4, 230 pounds, Marshall will have a definite size advantage on the 6-foot, 203-pound Griffin. A 2006 second-round pick out of the University of Texas, Griffin has had some rough moments this season but seems to have made progress. Marshall should provide a good test of how far Griffin has come in his second NFL season. A motivated Marshall will have a chance against a porous pass defense. While Minnesota leads the NFL in run defense, is it ranked No. 32 in the league against the pass. The Vikings give up 266.1 yards per game in the air.
Steelers QB Charlie Batch vs. Ravens pass defense
The Ravens probably won't gamble with the blitzing as much as they did in the first meeting, but they just don't have quality defenders to contain the Steelers' passing attack. Without their top two cornerbacks a month ago, they allowed Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger (ankle) to throw for five touchdowns. The Ravens will once again be without both corners. When they haven't had cornerbacks Chris McAlister (knee) and Samari Rolle (shoulder) in five games, the Ravens have given up 12 passing touchdowns.
Steelers RB Najeh Davenport vs. Ravens run defense
Give to the edge to the Steelers, even without Pro Bowler Willie Parker (leg), who gained 1,316 yards on the ground before being lost for the season with a broken leg. Davenport (95 carries, 472 yards and four touchdowns) will take his place, and, surprisingly, Davenport has been more effective than Parker in two key areas: rushing touchdowns, 4-2, and receiving yards, 184-164. When Davenport replaced Parker last week, he gained 123 yards on 24 carries. He could have more success than expected. The Ravens are missing four starters from their traditionally stout run defense - linebacker Ray Lewis (back, finger), defensive tackle Trevor Pryce (chest), McAlister and Rolle. Without the cornerbacks, the Ravens secondary can't help the run defense; without Pryce, who led the Ravens in sacks last season, the Steelers can mix up their offensive play calling and give their quarterback more options. Without Lewis, the Ravens seem to lose their direction as a defense. Even the Seahawks, who have one of the worst rushing offenses in the league, gained 144 yards on the ground (a season-worst for the Ravens) last Sunday. Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger (ankle) isn't expected to play in this one. The Steelers can do no better than the No. 4 playoff seed, unless the Chargers are upset by the hapless Raiders, so head coach Mike Tomlin may rest his banged-up players.
Ravens QB Troy Smith vs. Steelers pass rush
The Steelers used to feed on inexperienced quarterbacks, but their pass rush isn't as strong as it used to be, back when the team was going to AFC Championship games on a semi-regular basis. The Steelers have had more sacks than their opponent in only three of 15 games, including a 6-3 edge against the Ravens in their first meeting this season. Pittsburgh has only two sacks in the past four games. Whether that will help the Ravens is debatable because Smith, the 2006 Heisman Trophy winner, will make his second career start with veteran quarterbacks Steve McNair (shoulder) and Kyle Boller (concussion) hurt. Last week, in a 27-6 loss at Seattle, Smith was hit nine times and sacked twice. He completed only 15 of his 32 passes for 120 yards (if you take away a very late 79-yard touchdown pass to wideout Derrick Mason that had no impact on the game). This could be a game where the Steelers' pass rush gets better.
Ravens RB Musa Smith vs. Steelers run defense
Smith makes his first start of the season, replacing injured running backs Willis McGahee (ribs) and Mike Anderson (leg), who won't start but could be available. Don't expect much out of Smith. The Steelers rank third in the NFL in rushing defense, although they have looked vulnerable the past two weeks. The Jaguars' Fred Taylor gained 147 yards against them Dec. 16, and the Rams' Steven Jackson had 85 yards against them last Sunday. Smith, who has been the team's third-down back the past two seasons, is averaging just 3.4 yards per carry this season, though.
Titans RB LenDale White vs. Colts run defense
The Titans want to turn Sunday's game into a physical one. The last time these two teams met, in Week 2, the Titans ran for 141 yards in a 22-20 home loss. White managed 64 yards on 15 carries. The Colts have improved to 17th in run defense at 107.5 yards allowed per game, an improvement of 15 spots and 66.5 yards from last year's league-worst unit. The Colts plan to rest defensive starters after a quarter or so. Their front line will likely be three fill-ins and rookie defensive tackle Ed Johnson, who has started every game and is one of the team's biggest surprises. Still, the Titans average 134.1 rushing yards per game, fifth in the league, and this game couldn't be more important to them. Win and they're in the playoffs. Lose and they're out. They won't want to put too much on the passing arm of quarterback Vince Young. Maybe they'll ask him to scramble, but look for the Titans to run it. White, in his second year, has emerged as the team's best back, with 1,065 yards and seven touchdowns. He is coming off another 100-yard rushing game - his fifth of the season - and he's now averaging 3.7 yards per carry.
Colts OTs Tony Ugoh and Charlie Johnson vs. Titans DE Kyle Vanden Bosch
The Colts have struggled on the line with 21 sacks allowed, some of that attributed to injuries and subs playing extensively at tackle. Earlier this season, in Week 2, Vanden Bosch moved around a lot against the Colts. Late in the game, he said in the huddle he would sack Manning on a key third-down play, and he did. He beat Ugoh and forced the Colts to punt, which gave the Titans a final chance at a comeback. Vanden Bosch, with 12 sacks, is headed to his second Pro Bowl and is coming off a monster three-sack, 11-tackle game against the Jets. The hunch is that he'll look to line up a lot against either Ugoh or Johnson, who has been awful.
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