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AFC West Week 16 Fantasy Outlook

December 20, 2007 @ 15:13:47

By Ken Jager
Edited by Cory J. Bonini

Note: All statistics appearing in this article are from Weeks 12-15, unless otherwise noted.

Do Not Bench List - All Positions

Running Back Larry Johnson, Kansas City Chiefs: Johnson (foot) is still recovering from his injury and has now missed six games in a row. With the Chiefs in a tailspin, don't count on him returning this season.
Running Back LaDainian Tomlinson, San Diego Chargers: As long as the Chargers are trying to improve their playoff seeding, Tomlinson will play a large role in the team's remaining games. That's good news to fantasy owners, as he needed only a half to compile 116 rushing yards on 15 carries with two touchdowns last week before giving way to backup running back Darren Sproles with the game well in hand. It was his third straight 100-yard performance, scoring five touchdowns in that span. Tomlinson should remain perched atop your running back position this week against Denver.
Running Back Justin Fargas, Oakland Raiders: Fargas (knee) is likely done for the season after spraining his medial collateral ligament in Week 15. Owners should immediately look to running back Dominic Rhodes, as he will likely take over the starting spot, but he will likely share the load with running back LaMont Jordan against a stout Jacksonville Jaguars' run defense this week. Hopefully you'll have a steadier reserve on your roster to replace Fargas.
Wide Receiver Brandon Marshall, Denver Broncos: As Denver looks to finish the season strong, Marshall is giving fantasy owners something to cheer about in their playoffs. This first-year player blew past the dreaded "rookie wall" and is having one of the most productive seasons ever by a second-year receiver. Although, you can also credit his emergence to a number of injuries to the Denver receiving corps. As Denver's top healthy target, Marshall is a good No. 1 option against San Diego this coming Monday night.
Tight End Antonio Gates, San Diego Chargers: Despite a slow last three weeks (including a one-catch, eight-yard game last week), Gates earned a spot on this year's Pro Bowl squad. He should be able to bounce back this week, though, against a Denver defense ranking second-worst in the league against the tight end position in the last for weeks. In Week 5, Gates blitzed Denver for seven catches, 113 yards and a touchdown. Gates is a strong play Monday night as a No. 1 tight end.
Tight End Tony Gonzalez, Kansas City Chiefs: Gonzalez slowed down last week, catching only three passes for 17 yards. As his new quarterback, Brodie Croyle, is still getting his feet wet, it's not surprising for Gonzalez to have a game like this, especially against a defense like Tennessee. The Pro Bowler certainly has the opportunity to produce this week against a suspect Detroit Lions defense and remains a strong No. 1 play.

Quarterbacks

Player	Team	Gm	Pass Yds/G	Pass TD/G	INT/G	Rush Yards/G	Rush TD/G
Jay Cutler	Denver Broncos	4	253.5	1.75	0.75	13.5	0.00
Brodie Croyle	Kansas City Chiefs	3	164.7	1.00	1.33	5.3	0.00
Josh McCown	Oakland Raiders	3	115.0	1.67	0.67	14.7	0.00
Philip Rivers	San Diego Chargers	4	194.0	1.75	0.75	0.8	0.00

Cutler - As fantasy is coming down to the wire, we usually get a mixture of players running out of gas and those who are coming into their own. Cutler is part of the latter. His second straight solid performance last week turned in 27-for-39 passing for 254 yards and a touchdown. Most importantly, no interceptions. Cutler is a decent option as a No. 1 quarterback this late in the season, though he is a weak play against San Diego this week on Monday night.

Croyle - Croyle has yet to find any real consistency this season; he'll use the last two games to try and work some more kinks out. He did throw for two touchdowns and 217 yards on 25-for-43 passing last week, but he also tossed two interceptions. Don't expect Croyle to have much fantasy value the rest of the season, so leave this weak play benched.

McCown - McCown is another quarterback to stay away from for the rest of the season. He threw for just 94 yards and a touchdown on 13-for-24 passing last week in a game that quarterback JaMarcus Russell received some playing time. Especially against the Jacksonville Jaguars this week, there's no need to play McCown in your quest for fantasy supremacy.

Rivers - Despite Rivers' 101.5 quarterback rating last week, he only threw for 142 yards and a touchdown on 14-for-21 passing. If the Chargers' run game didn't explode like it did, Rivers would have had more opportunities. With the Chargers fighting for playoff position, don't expect the offense to lay down against a Denver team they blew out in Week 5. Rivers could be in line for a solid game this Monday night and is a low-end No. 1 option.

Running Backs

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rush Yds/G	Rush TD/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Travis Henry	Denver Broncos	3	12.67 (14.91)	3.67 (24.57)	33.3	1.00	0.00	0.0	0.00
Selvin Young	Denver Broncos	3	13.00 (15.30)	1.67 (11.17)	72.7	0.00	2.33	8.3	0.00
Kolby Smith	Kansas City Chiefs	4	23.75 (37.62)	2.75 (38.17)	81.8	0.50	1.75	6.0	0.00

Henry - Henry is having a hard time producing in the committee approach with Young, as evidenced by his third-straight game under 50 yards since returning from an injury. Despite getting more touches than Young, Henry is averaging only 2.86 yards per carry during that span. He faces a San Diego defense playing well against the run as of late and is as weak play as a shaky No. 2 or No. 3 option this week.

Young - Young followed a breakout performance in Week 14 with a lackluster one in Week 15, carrying the ball eight times for 34 yards and no scores. He also caught five passes for eight yards. Splitting time in the backfield is never fun for a fantasy owner, and it might not be too fun again this week. Young is a weak play as a No. 3 option versus a well-playing San Diego run defense.

Smith - Smith had a decent game last week on 18 carries for 82 yards to go with three catches for 23 yards. He did not find the end zone, however, as the Chiefs overall offense continues to struggle. The good news for Smith owners still in the fantasy playoffs is that he faces the league's worst run defense of the last four weeks in the Detroit Lions. Detroit has surrendered an average of 159.0 yards and 2.50 touchdowns to the running back position during that span. Smith is a strong play as a No. 1 or No. 2 option this week and a one-week play candidate for shallow leagues.

Wide Receivers

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Javon Walker	Denver Broncos	3	3.00 (3.53)	0.00 (0.00)	1.00	9.0	0.00
Dwayne Bowe	Kansas City Chiefs	4	8.50 (13.46)	0.25 (3.47)	4.00	54.2	0.00
Jerry Porter	Oakland Raiders	4	7.50 (11.76)	1.50 (18.61)	3.50	50.2	0.50
Chris Chambers	San Diego Chargers	4	6.75 (9.36)	0.50 (2.28)	3.75	57.8	0.25

Walker - Walker (knee) still isn't fully recovered from his injury and continues to be a non-factor in the Denver offense. In his second return to the active roster last week, he recorded just two catches for 20 yards. Walker isn't someone you want to gamble with in the playoffs, so leave this weak play on the bench.

Bowe - Bowe's production continues to be limited thanks to Croyle's inconsistency and persistence to get every eligible receiver involved in the game. Bowe was the team's leading receiver last week with five catches for 64 yards, but no touchdowns. He clearly isn't a guy you want carrying your fantasy team to a title, but if you find yourself short a receiver, you should consider Bowe as a desperation fill-in as a strong play facing a soft Detroit defense.

Porter - Where Porter doesn't produce in receptions and yardage, he makes up for being a decent scoring threat. During the last four games, Porter is collecting 18.61 percent of the team's red zone targets and has scored a touchdown in two of those four games. Jacksonville isn't an appealing match up for any offense, but Porter's red zone threat alone makes him a low-tier No. 3 option this week.

Chambers - It was another typical week for Chambers, catching four passes for 69 yards and no touchdowns last week. Again, the ground game took center stage, so there's no need for the team to utilize its receivers as much as other teams do. Another downer for Chambers - Rivers is targeting wide receiver Vincent Jackson in the red zone more than Chambers at a 3-to-1 ration. Consider Chambers a weak play as a No. 3 or fill-in option against Denver this week.

Tight Ends

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Tony Scheffler	Denver Broncos	4	5.00 (7.85)	0.75 (6.70)	4.25	57.5	0.50
Zach Miller	Oakland Raiders	4	2.75 (4.31)	0.25 (3.10)	2.25	29.0	0.25

Scheffler - A big day for Scheffler last week as he broke the 100-yard mark for the first time in his two-year a career. He caught seven passes for 100 yards and a touchdown in Week 15's loss. Now with teammate tight end Daniel Graham (ankle) likely out for the season, Scheffler will get even more looks in the tight end spot. Scheffler moves in as a No. 1 tight end option, but is a weak play against a good San Diego defense on Monday night this week.

Miller - Two weeks and two catches for Miller, as he again caught just one pass for eight 12 yards last week. Despite a favorable matchup against a Jacksonville defense that has given up an average 0.75 touchdowns to the tight end position the last four weeks, the Raiders still can't produce out of the quarterback position. Miller's strong play status as a No. 1 or bench option shouldn't be enough to sway you to play him this week.

Place Kickers

Player	Team	Gm	XP/G	XPA/G	FG/G	FGA/G	Kick Pnts/G
Jason Elam	Denver Broncos	4	3.00	3.00	2.00	2.00	9.0
John Carney	Kansas City Chiefs	3	1.33	1.33	0.67	0.67	3.3
Sebastian Janikowski	Oakland Raiders	4	2.25	2.25	1.00	1.50	5.2
Nate Kaeding	San Diego Chargers	4	3.25	3.25	2.25	2.50	10.0

Elam - Elam made both of his field goal attempts and an extra point in last week's loss. He now hasn't missed a kicking try in six weeks and has missed only one field goal since Week 2. Now that the Denver offense is getting him in position to produce with is accuracy, Elam is reaping good fantasy rewards at just the right time. Though production likely won't be in the cards this weekend against San Diego's league-leading kicking defense (allowing just 3.2 points per game to the position the last four weeks). Elam is a weak play for the bench as a result.

Carney - Carney isn't getting any chances with his new team's sputtering offense. He made his only field goal attempt and two extra points last week. Despite a favorable match up against Detroit this week, don't count on Carney for fantasy championship winning points. Keep this weak play benched.

Janikowski - A second straight week of theoretically no fantasy production out of Janikowski in Week 15 produced just two extra points and no field goal attempts. Besides, there's no telling what his leg will do when he does get his attempts, as inconsistency comes synonymous with his name. Janikowski should remain on the bench this week.

Kaeding - A late-season surge by the Chargers means rewards for Kaeding's fantasy owners. Last week's offensive outburst against Detroit added up to 3-for-3 field goal attempts and six extra point conversions for a monster fantasy day. He'll face Denver this week, a team in which he had great success against earlier this season. Kaeding is a solid option as your starting kicker Monday night.

Defensive Teams

Team	Gm	Off Pnts Allw/G	INT/G	Sacks/G	FR/G	DEF/ST TD/G
Denver Broncos	4	24.2	0.75	2.0	1.50	0.00
Kansas City Chiefs	4	27.8	0.25	1.8	0.25	0.00
Oakland Raiders	4	19.5	1.25	1.8	0.50	0.00
San Diego Chargers	4	13.8	2.50	3.5	0.75	0.20

Broncos - After a good performance by the Denver defense in Week 14, it turned in a stinker last week against the Houston Texans. The defense gave up 31 points and recorded no sacks or fumble recoveries. The lone spotlight was the team's only interception late in the third quarter by cornerback Dre' Bly. Denver is a weak play against San Diego this week and should be considered no more than a low-end No. 1 option, but look elsewhere if you have that luxury.

Chiefs - Not too many defensive teams are playing at a lower level than the Kansas City defense is right now. After giving up 41 points in the previous week, the Chiefs gave up 26 more in last week's seventh straight loss that included one total sack and no takeaways. Against a high-power Detroit offense this week, keep Kansas City resting on the sidelines.

Raiders - Oakland's defense held the high-octane Indianapolis Colts offense at bay for the majority of last week's game until it finally gave way and allowed the game-winning touchdown late in the fourth quarter. The Raiders defense isn't really much to speak of, especially so late in the season. Leave this weak play alone this week versus Jacksonville.

Chargers - The Chargers defense has played brilliantly during the team's four-game winning streak and last week was no exception. Led by the league leader in interceptions (10), cornerback Antonio Cromartie, five different players collected one interception each as San Diego held Detroit to 14 points. Linebacker Shaun Phillips even caught an interception and returned it 18 yards for a touchdown. Cromartie also had a fumble recovery. Hitting on all cylinders, San Diego is a No. 1 option but is a weak play against an emerging Denver squad looking to play spoilers.