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NFC South Week 16 Fantasy Outlook

December 20, 2007 @ 15:11:02

By Michael Egnak
Edited by Tim Heaney

Note: All statistics appearing in this article are from Weeks 12-15, unless otherwise noted.

Do Not Bench List - All Positions

Running Back Earnest Graham, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Graham was given 22 carries for 79 yards with one rushing touchdown in Week 15 against the Atlanta Falcons. He also caught five passes for 40 receiving yards, leading the team in receiving for the game. The touchdown made Graham the first player in franchise history to score a touchdown in six consecutive games. Graham is averaging 80.5 rushing yards and 1.25 rushing touchdowns over his previous four games. He is also hauling in an average of 5.00 receptions for 32.8 receiving yards over that span. Graham should be started in all fantasy leagues.
Wide Receiver Marques Colston, New Orleans Saints: Colston caught eight passes for 114 receiving yards with one touchdown during the team's Week 15 game. Colston is averaging 6.50 receptions, 84.5 receiving yards and 1.00 touchdowns over his past four games. He is a strong play who should be started by all fantasy teams in Week 16.

Quarterbacks

Player	Team	Gm	Pass Yds/G	Pass TD/G	INT/G	Rush Yards/G	Rush TD/G
Chris Redman	Atlanta Falcons	3	168.0	1.33	1.33	1.7	0.00
Vinny Testaverde	Carolina Panthers	2	126.5	1.00	1.50	-2.5	0.00
Matt Moore	Carolina Panthers	3	98.3	0.00	0.33	1.7	0.99
Drew Brees	New Orleans Saints	4	270.5	2.50	0.25	2.2	0.25
Jeff Garcia	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	2	59.0	0.50	0.50	0.0	0.00

Redman - Redman was nothing if not horrible in Week 15, completing just four of his 15 passing attempts. Redman was so bad that Tampa Bay Buccaneers cornerback Ronde Barber's 29-yard interception return for a touchdown almost equaled the amount of passing yards Redman had for the game. He threw for just 34 yards and had two interceptions during the game. Redman is a weak play that should be benched for Week 16 against the Arizona Cardinals.

Testaverde - Testaverde did not play in Week 15 in what can be assumed was a performance-based benching. Head coach John Fox said Thursday, Dec. 13, that Testaverde was resting but not injured. Testaverde was inactive for the game and quarterback Matt Moore started the game. Moore is expected to start the team's Week 16 game as well, making Testaverde irrelevant in all fantasy leagues.

Moore - Moore was solid against the Seattle Seahawks in Week 15, helping lead the Panthers to a win in his first NFL start. Moore was 19-for-27 for 208 passing yards during the game. Even though he had a successful debut, Moore is a weak play who should be benched in Week 16 against the Dallas Cowboys.

Brees - Brees was 26-for-30 for 315 passing yards with two touchdowns in Week 15 against the Arizona Cardinals. Brees is back to being a top-tier fantasy quarterback and should be started by most fantasy teams in Week 16.

Garcia - Garcia didn't have a great game against the Atlanta Falcons in Week 15, but he did enough to help some fantasy teams. Returning to action despite a back injury, Garcia was 15-for-25 for 109 yards with one touchdown and one interception. He is a weak play who should be benched for Week 16 against the San Francisco 49ers.

Running Backs

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rush Yds/G	Rush TD/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Warrick Dunn	Atlanta Falcons	4	13.00 (21.48)	1.50 (28.65)	30.5	0.00	1.25	12.8	0.00
Jerious Norwood	Atlanta Falcons	4	9.50 (15.70)	0.50 (9.55)	55.2	0.00	1.50	21.8	0.00
DeAngelo Williams	Carolina Panthers	4	11.75 (18.34)	1.50 (21.61)	42.2	0.25	1.25	15.5	0.00
DeShaun Foster	Carolina Panthers	4	17.00 (26.54)	2.00 (28.82)	36.5	0.25	1.50	13.5	0.00
Aaron Stecker	New Orleans Saints	4	19.50 (30.88)	4.50 (43.44)	63.2	0.50	3.75	24.0	0.00

Dunn - At least Dunn's yards per carry improved against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 15. After two putrid games, Dunn gained 32 rushing yards off eight carries and seven receiving yards off one reception. Dunn is a strong play for Week 16, but he is still only worth using as a No. 3 fantasy running back.

Norwood - Norwood continued his solid play into Week 15 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and he ended up with more carries than his teammate Dunn. Norwood finished with nine carries for 73 yards, but he did not factor into the team's passing attack - not that he really had the chance to with Redman performing so poorly. Norwood is a strong play against the Arizona Cardinals in Week 16, and he is worth using as a high-end No. 3 fantasy running back.

Williams - Williams had 15 carries for 61 rushing yards with one rushing touchdown during the team's Week 15 game against the Seattle Seahawks. He also caught two passes for 11 receiving yards. He is a solid play as a No. 3 fantasy running back against the Dallas Cowboys in Week 16.

Foster - Foster struggled in Week 15, gaining just 47 rushing yards off 18 carries. He also didn't play a part in the receiving game, as he failed to catch any passes during the game. He is worth using as a No. 3 fantasy running back in Week 16.

Stecker - Stecker continues to fill in well for running back Reggie Bush (knee), who was originally expected to miss the rest of the season. Stecker had 22 carries for 95 rushing yards with two rushing touchdowns during the team's Week 15 game. He also caught six receptions for 46 receiving yards against the Arizona Cardinals. Bush participated in team practice on Wednesday, but his status for Week 16 is still up in the air at press time. Stecker is a weak play against the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 16, but he is still worth using as a No. 2 fantasy running back.

Wide Receivers

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Roddy White	Atlanta Falcons	4	10.00 (16.52)	0.50 (9.55)	5.00	82.2	0.75
Steve Smith	Carolina Panthers	4	12.25 (19.12)	1.25 (18.01)	7.00	56.8	0.00
David Patten	New Orleans Saints	4	5.25 (8.31)	0.50 (4.83)	3.75	52.5	0.50
Joey Galloway	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	4	8.00 (12.06)	0.75 (6.53)	4.00	68.5	0.00
Ike Hilliard	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	4	3.75 (5.66)	0.00 (0.00)	3.00	27.5	0.00

White - White had his worst game of the season in Week 15 as he was held to just one reception for four yards. It's unlikely Redman will play as poorly as he did last week, so White should be able to rebound from his poor performance against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Despite his weak outing, White remains a low-end No. 1 or a No. 2 fantasy wide receiver for Week 16 because he has had 40 looks over the last month. He is a strong play against the Arizona Cardinals.

Smith - Moore looked for Smith often during the team's Week 15 game. Smith was able to catch eight passes for 72 receiving yards during the game, and he is now averaging seven receptions per game over his past four contests. However, with Moore yet to prove that he's a legitimate quarterback, Smith is a weak play for Week 16 against the Dallas Cowboys and only worth using as a low-end No. 3 fantasy wide receiver or as an injury replacement.

Patten - Patten caught four passes for 71 receiving yards with one touchdown in Week 15. He's been able to find the end zone lately, scoring two touchdowns in his past four games while averaging 52.5 receiving yards. He is a strong play against the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 16 and worth using as a low-end No. 2 or No. 3 fantasy wide receiver.

Galloway - With Garcia not playing his best during Week 15, Galloway saw his numbers dwindle against the Atlanta Falcons. He caught just one pass for seven receiving yards during the game. With the San Francisco 49ers allowing 196.5 receiving yards and a touchdown per game to wideouts over the last four months, Galloway is a strong play for Week 16, but he is only worth using as a low-end No. 3 fantasy wide receiver or as an injury replacement.

Hilliard - Hilliard (back) was able to play regularly in the team's Week 15 game, but his numbers were still low as Garcia struggled to get the passing attack rolling against the Atlanta Falcons. Hilliard caught one pass for nine receiving yards during the game. Hilliard is a weak play who should be benched against the San Francisco 49ers in Week 16.

Tight Ends

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Alge Crumpler	Atlanta Falcons	4	6.75 (11.15)	0.50 (9.55)	3.25	23.8	0.00
Jeff King	Carolina Panthers	4	4.75 (7.42)	1.00 (14.41)	2.75	18.0	0.25
Eric Johnson	New Orleans Saints	3	2.33 (2.77)	0.33 (2.41)	1.67	16.0	0.00
Alex Smith	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	4	2.75 (4.15)	0.25 (2.18)	1.50	22.8	0.00

Crumpler - Crumpler failed to record a reception in Week 15, marking the first time in 74 games that he didn't catch a pass in a game. He should be able to bounce back in Week 16 against the Arizona Cardinals, who have allowed 4.0 receptions per game to the position over the last month. He is a strong play for the game and worth using as a low-end No. 1 fantasy tight end.

King - King caught just two passes for 13 receiving yards during the team's Week 15 game. King is a weak play for the team's Week 16 game and should be benched against the Carolina Panthers.

Johnson - Johnson (groin) did not play in the team's Week 15 game, but he is expected to be re-evaluated Wednesday, Dec. 19. Johnson hasn't been a big part of the team's offense this year, so even if he plays he isn't worth using by fantasy teams.

Smith - Smith didn't catch a pass in Week 15, breaking a short streak of games during which he was fairly successful from a fantasy perspective. He is a weak play for the team's Week 16 game and should be benched.

Place Kickers

Player	Team	Gm	XP/G	XPA/G	FG/G	FGA/G	Kick Pnts/G
Morten Andersen	Atlanta Falcons	4	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	4.0
John Kasay	Carolina Panthers	4	1.25	1.25	1.75	2.00	6.5
Martin Gramatica	New Orleans Saints	1	4.00	4.00	1.00	1.00	7.0
Matt Bryant	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	4	2.50	2.50	2.25	2.50	9.2

Andersen - Andersen was responsible for all the team's scoring in Week 15 as the Falcons were held to just one 33-yard field goal during the game. With the offense barely moving at all, it's no surprise that was Andersen's only field goal opportunity of the game. Andersen is a weak play and should be benched this week.

Kasay - Kasay converted two of his three field goal opportunities in Week 15 and was successful on his one extra point attempt. Kasay was successful from 53 and 37 yards, but he missed wide left on another 37-yard attempt. Kasay is worth using as a very low-end No. 1 fantasy place kicker for fantasy teams in Week 16.

Gramatica - Signed to replace place-kicker Olindo Mare (hip), who was placed on Injured Reserve, Gramatica was able to convert four extra point attempts and one field goal in Week 15. Gramatica was good from 31 yards in his first game with the Saints. He is only worth using as a low-end No. 1 fantasy place kicker.

Bryant - Bryant had another high-scoring game in Week 15 as he converted all three field goal opportunities and four extra point attempts. Bryant was good on field goals from 33, 28 and 34 yards during the game. Bryant is a solid starting option for most fantasy teams against the San Francisco 49ers in Week 16.

Defensive Teams

Team	Gm	Off Pnts Allw/G	INT/G	Sacks/G	FR/G	DEF/ST TD/G
Atlanta Falcons	4	28.0	1.00	1.75	0.25	0.0
Carolina Panthers	4	21.5	1.25	2.25	1.00	0.2
New Orleans Saints	4	17.8	1.50	2.25	0.50	0.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	4	13.2	1.00	2.25	2.25	0.4

Falcons - The Falcons defense allowed 25 offensive points and recorded just two sacks and one interception during the team's Week 15 game. They did hold the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to just 285 net yards. They are worth using as a very low-end No. 1 team defense against the Arizona Cardinals in Week 16.

Panthers - The Panthers defense held up well against the Seattle Seahawks in Week 15, holding the NFC West division winners to just 10 offensive points and 282 net yards. They also recorded three sacks and one fumble recovery during the game. The Panthers are a weak play against the Dallas Cowboys in Week 16, but they are worth starting for fantasy teams that can't find a better option.

Saints - The Saints defense struggled some against the Arizona Cardinals in Week 15, but they were able to hold on to give the team a win. The team's defense allowed 24 offensive points and 317 net yards while recording two sacks, one interception and one fumble recovery. The Saints defense is a weak play in Week 16, but they are still worth starting against the Philadelphia Eagles.

Buccaneers - The Buccaneers were tremendous in Week 15, holding the Atlanta Falcons to just three offensive points, 133 net yards, one sack, two interceptions and two fumble recoveries. Their defense also scored twice, with cornerback Ronde Barber returning an interception 29 yards for a score and wide receiver Michael Spurlock returning a kickoff 90 yards for a touchdown, their first kickoff return for a touchdown in franchise history. The Bucs' defense will look to continue their recent success against the San Francisco 49ers in Week 16. They should be able to post up good numbers against an inconsistent Niners offense. Tampa Bay ranks as a strong play and possibly the best defense to use this week.

Author Bio

Michael Egnak
Michael Egnak is a Hot Off The Wire Analyst at KFFL and has been with the company since 2005. Covering both NFL and MLB, Egnak is also a key contributor to KFFL's fantasy services.