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AFC East Week 16 Fantasy Outlook

December 20, 2007 @ 14:27:32

By Christopher Watkins
Edited by Herija C. Green

Note: All statistics appearing in this article are from Weeks 12-15, unless otherwise noted.

Do Not Bench List - All Positions

Quarterback Tom Brady, New England Patriots: Brady's performance against the New York Jets last Sunday likely ended a lot of fantasy football seasons. He only managed 140 yards and an interception in inclement weather, and the Patriots went to the running game far more than Brady owners are used to. This week he'll face a Miami Dolphins team that is giving up 1.50 touchdowns per game to quarterbacks since Week 12. Though the weather might again be a factor, Brady is always a must-start regardless of his previous week's numbers. Start him as a strong No. 1 quarterback.
Running Back Marshawn Lynch, Buffalo Bills: Lynch did well to gain 82 yards on the ground in the snow last Sunday, but he wasn't able to find the end zone. However, Lynch owners had to be encouraged that his ankle held up well, and his 22 carries doubled that of backup running back Fred Jackson's. This week Lynch goes up against a New York Giants defense giving up 109 yards and 0.75 rushing touchdowns per game the last four weeks. The Giants are also giving up 40.8 receiving yards per game to running backs in that same stretch. Lynch is a strong No. 2 starter in Week 16.
Wide Receiver Randy Moss, New England Patriots: Like every offensive player on the field besides running back Laurence Maroney, Moss had a down week last Sunday in the bad Foxboro weather. He did manage 79 receiving yards, and you can bet he'll be eager to make up for it if the weather cooperates. The Dolphins are giving up 142.5 yards and one touchdown per game since Week 12, and Moss is a strong No. 1 starting option.
Wide Receiver Wes Welker, New England Patriots: Welker also had a down week, only managing three catches for 30 yards in Week 15. In terms of receptions, Welker remains Brady's top receiver in the last four weeks, averaging seven catches per game. This week Welker will face his former team, the Dolphins. Against Miami in Week 7, Welker went bananas for 138 receiving yards and two touchdowns. You never know what will go down with the weather, but Welker is a strong No. 3 option at receiver this week.
New England Patriots, Defensive Team: In Week 15, the New England Patriots got five sacks, an interception (Which was returned for a touchdown) and a fumble recovery from their defense while only allowing four points to the Jets offense. The Dolphins are averaging only 11.5 points and 247.8 yards per game since Week 12; worst in the NFL in both categories in that span. They have a strong play matchup this week, and you should start the Patriots as a strong No. 1 team defense.

Quarterbacks

Player	Team	Gm	Pass Yds/G	Pass TD/G	INT/G	Rush Yards/G	Rush TD/G
Trent Edwards	Buffalo Bills	3	182.0	1.33	0.00	6.0	0.00
Cleo Lemon	Miami Dolphins	2	278.0	0.50	1.00	8.0	0.00
Chad Pennington	New York Jets	1	186.0	0.00	0.00	4.0	0.00
Kellen Clemens	New York Jets	4	166.0	0.25	1.25	7.0	0.25

Edwards - After a stellar performance in Week 14, Edwards laid a fantasy egg against the Cleveland Browns last Sunday. He was only able to throw for 124 yards with no touchdowns against the Browns, whose field looked more like a snow globe than a football stadium. Edwards has a weak play matchup against the Giants this week and should be benched.

Lemon - Lemon led all NFL quarterbacks in Week 15 with 315 yards passing. Dolphins head coach Cam Cameron made the right call last week, naming Lemon the starter over rookie quarterback John Beck. The Dolphins got their first win of the season, and it appears as though Lemon will start in Foxboro against the Patriots this Sunday. New England is giving up 232 yards and 1.50 touchdowns per game to opposing quarterbacks in the last four weeks, but Lemon has a weak play matchup and should be benched.

Pennington - Pennington entered the Jets' Week 15 game early after Clemens (ribs, shoulder) was knocked out with an injury. He was only able to generate 186 passing yards in the windy and icy conditions, with no touchdowns. This week, the Jets travel to face a Tennessee Titans defense that is giving up two passing touchdowns per game since Week 12. That said, the Jets offense is still showing few signs of life, and Pennington has a weak play matchup. Even if Pennington does play, he should be benched.

Clemens - Clemens never had much of a chance against New England in Week 15, leaving the game early with a rib injury. Monday it was also revealed that he has an injury to his left (non-throwing) shoulder. Check back with KFFL for updates on who will start for the Jets this week when they travel to Tennessee, but even if Clemens does start he should ride the bench.

Running Backs

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rush Yds/G	Rush TD/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Jesse Chatman	Miami Dolphins	2	13.50 (10.61)	0.00 (0.00)	21.5	0.00	1.50	3.0	0.00
Samkon Gado	Miami Dolphins	3	12.33 (14.54)	3.00 (41.27)	32.3	1.00	1.33	15.7	0.00
Laurence Maroney	New England Patriots	4	15.00 (22.91)	2.00 (13.85)	49.2	0.50	0.50	19.8	0.00
Thomas Jones	New York Jets	4	20.50 (32.17)	3.75 (33.40)	60.0	0.25	1.50	17.0	0.00
Leon Washington	New York Jets	4	8.25 (12.95)	2.00 (17.82)	36.0	0.50	2.50	20.0	0.00

Chatman - Chatman (ankle) was inactive in Week 15, and it's not clear whether or not he will play this week. Check KFFL for his status before the Dolphins take the field against the Patriots this Sunday.

Gado - Gado logged another touchdown in place of Chatman in Week 15. He may start again this Sunday in New England, but the final decision has not been made. Check back with KFFL and keep abreast of any possible changes. If Gado gets another start, he's a worthy No. 2 starter for Week 16, even against the mighty Patriots. The above statistic says it all - in the last four weeks, Gado has received 41.27 percent of the red zone plays for the Dolphins, and the Patriots are giving up 111.8 rushing and 37.8 receiving yards per game to the running back position since Week 12.

Maroney - The inclement weather greatly benefited Maroney owners last week, allowing him to garner a total of 26 plays for 104 rushing yards, including a touchdown. Keep an eye on the weather before kickoff this Sunday, as the Patriots will almost certainly rely more on Maroney if their Week 16 game against the Dolphins takes place in similar conditions as last week's. The Dolphins are giving up a whopping 150 rushing yards and 33.2 receiving yards to running backs since Week 12, and Maroney has a strong play matchup against them. He's a solid No. 2 starting option this week.

Jones - Despite getting more plays than his backup last week, Jones was out-gained on the ground by Washington. Jones only picked up 19 rushing yards and had two catches for 13 yards. Even with those numbers, Jones is a strong play against the Titans this week, who are giving up 116.5 yards and one touchdown per game to running backs over the last four weeks. He has a strong play matchup and can be used as a low-end No. 2 starter.

Washington - Seemingly each week, Washington makes it harder for both his team and his fantasy owners to keep him on the bench. His explosive speed and ability to break off long runs and returns continue to get him more chances. He turned one of those chances into a 49-yard rush last Sunday against the Patriots. He's a strong play this week in Tennessee and can be used as a No. 3 option.

Wide Receivers

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Lee Evans	Buffalo Bills	4	7.75 (12.83)	0.50 (13.30)	3.00	46.2	0.50
Marty Booker	Miami Dolphins	3	9.67 (11.39)	1.00 (13.76)	5.67	59.3	0.00
Donte' Stallworth	New England Patriots	4	4.50 (6.87)	0.50 (3.46)	2.00	32.8	0.00
Laveranues Coles	New York Jets	2	9.00 (7.06)	1.50 (6.68)	6.00	58.5	0.00
Jerricho Cotchery	New York Jets	3	8.33 (9.81)	0.67 (4.45)	4.67	71.7	0.00

Evans - You certainly can't hold Evans' poor fantasy performance in Week 15 against him, as the visibility and conditions allowed for very little offense in Cleveland. This week Evans faces a Giants defense that has given up 108.5 yards and 0.25 touchdowns per game to opposing wideouts in the last four weeks. Evans has a weak play matchup this week and should only be used as a weak No. 3 option or an injury replacement

Booker - Booker had 88 yards receiving last week in the Dolphins' first victory of the season, but this week they'll be far from the warm winter of Miami. The Patriots are giving up a touchdown per game to wide receivers since Week 12, along with an average of 153.8 receiving yards. But don't let one win against a bad Baltimore Ravens team fool you. Booker is quite a gamble this week, and if you're still alive in your league, chances are you can do better. Keep Booker on the bench.

Stallworth - Stallworth had his worst game of the year last Sunday, as he was targeted only twice, with no yards or catches. Certainly the weather played a part in that, but Stallworth continues to be at best a third (and often times a fourth given the emergence of receiver Jabar Gaffney) option for Brady. He's got a weak play matchup this week against the Dolphins and should continue to languish on the bench.

Coles - After Coles (ankle) aggravated his injury last Saturday, he participated in only one play against the Patriots. Check back with KFFL for his status, but at this point he doesn't appear likely to play. Being that we're now in the thick of the fantasy football playoffs, you should have other options ready to go. Even if Coles is able to recover in time for Sunday's game against the Titans, he should still be benched.

Cotchery - Cotchery didn't do much in last week's game against the Patriots, with only 53 receiving yards and six catches. The team will hope for better weather this Sunday in Tennessee against the Titans, who are giving up an average of 157.5 yards and 1.25 touchdowns per game to wide receivers since Week 12. Cotchery owners stand to benefit if Coles isn't able to go in Week 16. He's a No. 3 starter this week.

Tight Ends

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Robert Royal	Buffalo Bills	4	3.00 (4.97)	0.25 (6.65)	2.25	20.2	0.50
David Martin	Miami Dolphins	4	3.50 (5.50)	0.25 (4.59)	2.00	17.0	0.00
Benjamin Watson	New England Patriots	3	6.00 (6.87)	1.33 (6.92)	3.00	25.3	0.00
Chris Baker	New York Jets	4	6.25 (9.81)	1.50 (13.36)	4.00	40.0	0.00

Royal - Royal and all the other offensive players were pretty much non-existent in the Cleveland snow last Sunday. He only had one catch for nine yards and was a complete non-factor. Buffalo's Week 16 opponent, the Giants, will be fighting for their playoff lives, and Royal should remain on the bench with a weak play matchup this Sunday.

Martin - During their first win of the season over the Ravens last week, the Dolphins tight ends as a collective unit didn't catch a single pass. This week, Martin figures have a tough task against New England, a team that is giving up only 40.5 yards per game to tight ends since Week 12. Lemon has been a shot in the arm to the Miami offense, but Martin is a weak play on the road this week. Bench him.

Watson - Watson (ankle) missed last week's game with injury, and there's no word yet on his status for Week 16's game against Miami. Even if he does play, Watson has a few players ahead of him when it comes to his Brady's selection of weapons. In his absence, no Patriots tight end was even targeted last week against the Jets. Check with KFFL and monitor Watson's injury status, but even if he does play, he should be used as no more than an injury replacement.

Baker - Baker was able to eek out 66 yards on eight receptions against that tough New England defense in the elements last week. This week, the Jets have a tough game against the Titans, and Baker is looking to have another solid game. The Titans defense is rounding back into shape as the playoffs draw nearer, but they've given up 46 yards and 0.50 touchdowns per game to tight ends in the last four weeks. Baker is a strong play against Tennessee and can be played as a No. 1 starter this week.

Place Kickers

Player	Team	Gm	XP/G	XPA/G	FG/G	FGA/G	Kick Pnts/G
Rian Lindell	Buffalo Bills	4	1.75	1.75	1.50	1.75	6.2
Jay Feely	Miami Dolphins	4	1.00	1.00	1.50	1.50	5.5
Stephen Gostkowski	New England Patriots	4	3.00	3.00	1.75	2.25	8.2
Mike Nugent	New York Jets	4	1.25	1.25	2.50	2.75	8.8

Lindell - Lindell and the rest of the Bills were snowed under in Cleveland last week. He had no attempted field goals or extra points. In week 16, he'll face a Giants team that is fifth-worst in the NFL since Week 12, allowing 9.5 points per game to opposing kickers. He's a strong play against the Giants, but keep an eye on the weather. It's December in Buffalo, and that can wreak havoc on kickers. He's worth a start as a low-end No. 1 if you don't have a better option this week.

Feely - Feely had a great fantasy game last week against the Ravens, hitting all three of his field goals and his lone extra point attempt. The Patriots have been amongst the league's best, allowing only 5.2 points per game to kickers over the last four games. Feely is a weak play matchup against the Patriots and should be benched.

Gostkowski - Coming off two successful bad-weather field goals in Week 15 against the Jets, Gostkowski will look to build on that momentum against the Dolphins this Sunday. The Dolphins are near the bottom of the NFL since Week 12, allowing an average 9.2 points per game to kickers. Gostkowski is a strong No. 1 starter this week, but be sure to check that pre-game weather report.

Nugent - Nugent has been on a hot streak in recent weeks, but cooled off a bit last Sunday in the wintry New England weather. This week the Jets face a tough Tennessee team that will be doing everything they can to stay in the AFC Wild Card picture. Teams have only attempted 1.25 field goals per game against the Titans since Week 12, which makes it a weak play matchup against them for Nugent this week. He's nothing more than a low-end starting option.

Defensive Teams

Team	Gm	Off Pnts Allw/G	INT/G	Sacks/G	FR/G	DEF/ST TD/G
Buffalo Bills	4	18.8	0.75	2.50	1.00	0.2
Miami Dolphins	4	22.8	0.75	3.75	0.50	0.2
New York Jets	4	18.2	1.50	1.75	0.50	0.2

Bills - The Bills were able to hold Cleveland's dangerous offense to only two field goals last Sunday, but of course the majority of credit for that feat goes to Mother Nature. This week the Bills face a Giants team that suffered numerous dropped passes last week. Giants quarterback Eli Manning completed an unbelievable 18 of 52 pass attempts against the Washington Redskins. The Bills are worth starting this week as a second-tier defense at home against the Giants.

Dolphins - Question: In weeks 12-15, which team is leading the NFL in sacks? The answer is the Dolphins with 15. Last week they logged four more against the Ravens, but this week they're headed to New England for a rematch against the Patriots. The Dolphins have a weak play matchup this week, and let's not forget how badly the Patriots torched them in Week 7. Keep the Dolphins on the bench this week.

Jets - The Jets defense held its own against the Patriots in Week 15, but once again we have to give the weather a little credit in that realm. This week they'll face the Titans, who are improving on offense in recent weeks as they make a playoff push. The Titans had an uncharacteristically balanced attack last week against the Kansas City Chiefs, rolling up 148 yards on the ground and 191 yards passing. Quarterback Vince Young looks to be coming out of his season-long funk. The Jets are a weak play against the Titans this week and should be benched.