Matchups to Exploit - Week 16
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December 20, 2007 @ 07:45:23
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By Hot off the Wire Network Contributors
Edited by Nicholas Minnix
Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger vs. Rams pass defense
Almost no one needs a breather more than Roethlisberger, who has been sacked more times than any quarterback in the NFL (43, nine short of the franchise record). Still, Roethlisberger has found a way to set a Steelers single-season record for touchdown passes (29), and he is fourth in the league with a 100.5 passer rating. Meanwhile, the Rams defense is among the most giving in the league when it comes to allowing touchdowns on offense (33, only six teams are worse). They also average less than two sacks per game, so maybe Roethlisberger will be able to catch his breath, find recovering wide receiver Santonio Holmes (high ankle sprain) and rest his bruises.
Steelers RB Willie Parker vs. Rams run defense
The Rams have yet to allow a 100-yard rusher this season, but they face the NFL's leading rusher in Parker. Parker has been a workhorse this season for Pittsburgh, with a league-leading 320 carries. The Rams have good team speed on defense, and they will need it to keep Parker - one of the league's faster backs - from getting to the corner. Middle linebacker Will Witherspoon will be a key here because of his sideline-to-sideline speed.
Rams RB Steven Jackson vs. Steelers run defense
The Steelers proved that they can't stop the pass (399 yards by the New England Patriots) or the run (224 by the Jacksonville Jaguars) - at least when they are playing a good team. Maybe it's OK this week, then, because the 3-11 Rams will be the opponent Thursday night in St. Louis. The trouble is that the Steelers still will be without right defensive end Aaron Smith (torn biceps), who is out for the season. His replacements, Travis Kirschke (ribs) and Nick Eason, aren't strong enough at the point of attack to hold up through an entire game. Kirschke may not even be able to play in this one. Here comes Jackson, who missed four games with an injury earlier in the season but has amassed 330 yards (5.3 per carry) in the past three games. He is coming off a season-high 143 yards rushing against the Packers and has gained 90 yards or more in each of his past five games. As was the case last Sunday against Green Bay, the Rams' best hope for victory is if they can establish Jackson early in the running game and control the clock. Despite missing four full games and three-quarters of a fifth, Jackson is only 138 yards shy of his third straight 1,000-yard season. He seems determined to get there over the next two games.
Cowboys WR Terrell Owens vs. Panthers CB Ken Lucas
Owens has been limited to five catches for 58 yards and no touchdowns in the last two games. He went through a similar two-game stretch earlier in the year and broke out with a six-catch, 66-yard, one-touchdown game versus New England that set him on a scoring streak of seven games. The Cowboys need Owens to have a big day. Carolina has allowed 19 touchdown passes this year, and opposing quarterbacks have an 84.1 passer rating. Lucas is not physical and has just two interceptions on the year. Owens had nine catches for 107 yards in last year's meeting at Carolina.
Cowboys TE Jason Witten vs. Panthers SS Chris Harris
Harris has been one of the season's few pleasant surprises. Acquired in a trade with the Chicago Bears during training camp, he has become the leader of the secondary and has a club-record eight forced fumbles. Harris has had some problems in coverage, though, because he doesn't have great speed. Witten is a major part of the Dallas offense, and he'll be a huge challenge for Harris. The Panthers will have to give Harris lots of help from strongside linebacker Thomas Davis in coverage.
Cowboys C Cory Procter vs. Panthers DT Kris Jenkins
Procter will be making the first start of his career Saturday with center Andre Gurode (knee) out. Procter does not possess Gurode's size and strength, but he understands how to play with leverage, which will be a must versus Jenkins. With a running game looking to get back on track and a passing game in flux because of quarterback Tony Romo's thumb injury, Procter has to have a big game in the middle.
Panthers WR Steve Smith vs. Cowboys CB Terence Newman
Although Smith's numbers have suffered due to the inconsistency at quarterback, he remains the focal point of the offense. The Panthers will try to get the ball to Smith as much as possible, and that may include some reverses or plays where he lines up in the backfield. Smith is most dangerous as a receiver on the outside, though, and that's where Newman's challenge will come. The Cowboys are likely to follow what other teams have done against the Panthers and give Newman plenty of help from the safeties.
Chiefs QB Brodie Croyle vs. Lions pass defense
If the Chiefs are ever going to break out in the passing game, this would have to be the week. The Lions are allowing the highest completion percentage and opponent passer rating in the league, so even the Chiefs might be able to take advantage. One positive sign for Croyle is that the protection seems to be improving. He threw 43 passes last week against the Tennessee Titans and wasn't sacked once. If he gets that kind of time against the Lions, he will make some big plays.
Chiefs RB Kolby Smith vs. Lions run defense
The Chiefs blocked for the run last week against Tennessee better than they had all season. If that keeps up and the Chiefs can keep the score close against the Lions, Smith could go over 100 yards. He was on pace last week, but he stopped at 82 when the Chiefs fell behind and had to throw. The Lions are allowing a healthy 4.2 yards per carry, so they are vulnerable.
Lions RB Kevin Jones vs. Chiefs run defense
You never know how the Lions are going to run the ball. One week, they commit to it. The next week, they fall behind and abandon it completely. But the Lions have a good chance to run the ball well Sunday, playing at home against the Chiefs, who rank third from the bottom of the NFL in run defense. Jones has rushed well when he has had the chance. Three times he has had at least 20 carries, and in each of those games, he has had at least 92 yards and a touchdown.
Lions OT Jeff Backus vs. Chiefs DE Jared Allen
The Lions' pass protection has improved lately, mostly because Damien Woody has solidified the right offensive tackle position. Detroit didn't allow a sack last Sunday, which made for one of the few bright spots in a 51-14 loss at the San Diego Chargers. Backus, the left tackle, is feeling better physically after playing through some injuries earlier this season. He'll have to be at his best against Allen, who has 11.5 sacks and is going to the Pro Bowl.
Browns RB Jamal Lewis vs. Bengals run defense
The Browns have excelled in keeping their offense balanced. Lewis is on a tear, averaging 113.8 yards in the last five games, including 163 on 33 carries last week in a snowstorm versus the Buffalo Bills. Lewis had 216 yards on 27 carries (8.0 average) in Week 2 versus the Bengals, including a 66-yard touchdown. Lewis is one of seven tailbacks to run for 100-plus yards against Cincinnati this season. The Bengals are 0-7 in those games. They rank 24th against the run, allowing 119.4 yards per game. They have been decimated by injuries at linebacker, but they are expected to have Rashad Jeanty (knee) healthy this week. The Bengals had put together five solid defensive games until last week, when San Francisco 49ers back Frank Gore ran for 138 yards.
Bengals QB Carson Palmer vs. Browns secondary
Palmer threw six of his 22 touchdown passes in Game 2 at Cleveland against a pass defense that could not contain him or his top two receivers: Chad Johnson had 209 yards and two touchdowns; T.J. Houshmandzadeh had eight for 69 yards and two touchdowns. The Browns did intercept Palmer twice: one pick each for strong safety Sean Jones and cornerback Leigh Bodden. The Browns are ranked 29th in pass defense, allowing 249.5 yards per game, and the Bengals fifth in pass offense (255.8 yards per game). Look for the rematch Sunday to be another high-scoring game, similar to the 51-45 Browns victory at Cleveland.
Bengals WR Chad Johnson vs. Browns CB Leigh Bodden
Johnson had 11 catches for 209 yards and two scores in the first meeting, his best game against the Browns in his career. Johnson has 85 catches for 1,265 yards and six touchdowns for the season, and he may have a chip on his shoulder after missing out on the Pro Bowl. Bodden had fared well versus Johnson, but Bodden struggled in coverage in Week 2 and has been slowed by injuries much of the year. He says he's healthy now.
Packers RB Ryan Grant vs. Bears LBs Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs
Grant is averaging nearly 100 yards per game since becoming the Packers' primary back eight weeks ago. Chicago hasn't been close to resembling the dominant defense it has been the last couple of years. Urlacher had an outstanding game last week against Minnesota, though. He and Briggs are the best pair of linebackers in the league, so even though Chicago ranks only 24th in the NFL in rushing yards allowed, this could be a tough day for Grant.
Packers OT Mark Tauscher vs. Bears DE Adewale Ogunleye
The veteran Tauscher has been affected by injuries this season, and his play has finally started to slip a notch. Ogunleye has been the most consistent performer on defense for the Bears all season, and he has been more explosive than in any previous season with the Bears. He has incorporated more power moves in his pass-rushing technique, and he can also use his quickness to get around Tauscher. Ogunleye is going to need to disrupt running lanes to clog things up against Grant. He also has to get to quarterback Brett Favre, as the pressure from the right side has been nonexistent during the second half of the season.
Bears QB Kyle Orton vs. Packers CBs Al Harris and Charles Woodson
Orton was reduced to a lot of dump-offs and checkdowns to running backs and other hot receivers Monday in Minneapolis against the Minnesota Vikings in his first start in nearly two seasons. Part of it was a function of him being inactive for so long - he needed to get back up to speed with reading coverages and the speed of the game. Part of it was also a function of the Vikings sitting in a Cover 2 scheme because there was no fear of the Bears' running game. The Bears offense isn't good enough at this point to dink and dunk down the field for sustained drives, however. There is no running game to speak of right now, so the Bears are going to have to thrive on the big play. That will require Orton making throws downfield to beat physical, man-to-man corners Al Harris and Charles Woodson. Those two favor an aggressive, in-your-face style that will require Orton to be patient in the pocket and wait for his receivers to get away from the jam. Orton needs to be able to hook up downfield with wideouts Bernard Berrian and Muhsin Muhammad; Orton has to take chances. Harris and Woodson are crafty veterans who have the edge, though.
Bears KR/PR Devin Hester vs. Packers PK Mason Crosby and P Jon Ryan
The last time the teams met, the Packers kicked away from Hester, trying high, pooch-like kickoffs and punting away from him - even out of bounds. The Bears had good field position most of the game because of that, but the best guess is that the Packers prefer that, and putting the game in the hands of Orton, rather than risk having Hester score once or twice on returns. Hester probably won't get many, if any, chances for a big play in the return game.
Giants QB Eli Manning vs. Bills pass rush
Manning comes off a game where he threw a whopping 52 times but was only sacked twice. The offensive line appears to have plugged the leaks that at one point got him sacked 10 times in three games. Recently, he has been sacked six times in three games. That doesn't mean his accuracy has improved, however. Last week, he completed only 18 passes for 184 yards and a touchdown pass to rookie Kevin Boss, Jeremy Shockey's (leg) replacement as the pass-catching tight end. Defensive end Aaron Schobel leads the Bills with 5.5 sacks, and the team only has 20 sacks, so Manning should be able to find time to throw.
Giants WR Plaxico Burress vs. Bills secondary
If cornerback Nate Clements (49ers) was still with the Bills, they would be extra dangerous. They can still pick people off, though, as their 15 interceptions indicate. Burress (ankle, knee) now draws a lot of one-on-one coverage because of his sprained right ankle. He comes off a three-catch, 35-yard game in blustery conditions, which are expected to be repeated somewhat in Buffalo. He no longer beats cornerbacks downfield, which should be a comfort to corners Terrence McGee (three interceptions) and Jabari Greer (two interceptions). McGee is ranked second in the NFL with 23 passes defensed, and Greer has 15.
Bills RB Marshawn Lynch vs. Giants run defense
Last week, the Giants' run-stopping unit gave up 153 yards to the Washington Redskins, which is uncharacteristic for a squad that allows 100.1 yards per game on the ground. The Giants rank 12th in the NFL in run defense. Lynch comes off an 82-yard rushing game in a snow-out in Cleveland. He has 940 yards and six touchdowns to put him on pace to become only the 12th player to surpass 1,000 yards as a rookie, and that's despite missing three full games. He catches the ball out of the backfield, too, with 15 receptions for 120 yards, and he has thrown an option pass for a touchdown. The Giants defense ranks No. 1 in the NFL in sacks. Expect the Bills to try to protect rookie quarterback Trent Edwards with a strong running game. Lynch will probably get roughly 70 percent of the carries, with Fred Jackson getting about 30 percent. Expect Lynch to get 20-plus carries.
Bills WR Lee Evans vs. Giants CB Sam Madison
Weather will be an issue with the passing games of both the Bills and the Giants. The early forecast calls for a snow-rain mix with temperatures in the mid-30s. Don't expect the kind of snow game the Bills played in Cleveland, though. The field probably will not be covered with snow, given the expected above-freezing temperatures. However, the winds will be 15-20 mph. Evans has gone six straight games without 100 yards in receiving. It may be seven after Sunday.
Texans WR Andre Johnson vs. Colts CB Marlin Jackson
Many in and around the Colts thought Jackson, a third-year pro from the University of Michigan, deserved consideration for the Pro Bowl. In his first year as a full-time starter, he's fourth on the team in tackles with 80 and has provided an undeniable physical presence the team had been lacking at the position. Johnson is a Pro Bowl star whose season was derailed by a knee injury. After missing seven games, though, he's returning to form, with seven touchdown catches. The Colts may need to keep a safety up top if Johnson proves too fast for Jackson. The Texans are sure to test Jackson given the Colts' lack of a pass rush in recent weeks without their top three sack men.
Colts QB Peyton Manning vs. Texans DE Mario Williams
Williams didn't do much against the Colts last time out. He had just one solo tackle and two total tackles. Williams is being moved around more and is coming off an outstanding five-game stretch in which he has picked up nine sacks. The Colts will keep their eye on him and try not to let him keep up the momentum he started. Williams will have plenty of motivation after being passed over for the Pro Bowl. In the end, Colts head coach Tony Dungy could end up selecting Williams as the "needs" player for the AFC, so these last two games are still key for Williams.
Colts RB Joseph Addai vs. Texans run defense
The second-year back has put together a strong year and is ranked seventh in the NFL in rushing. He always looks forward to playing against the Texans since he is a native of Houston. He had 72 yards and two touchdowns earlier this season against the Texans. The Texans' run defense has played well the last two weeks. The Texans have held their last two opponents to less than 75 yards rushing.
Colts WR Anthony Gonzalez vs. Texans CB Fred Bennett
This is a battle of rookies. Bennett was thrust into a starting role last month when cornerback Dunta Robinson (knee, hamstring) was lost for the season and leads the team with three interceptions. In each of the last two games, home victories over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Denver Broncos, Bennett has had a career-high eight tackles. That means teams are picking on him, which the Colts are sure to do with Gonzo being so hot. In eight games before he suffered a dislocated thumb injury, Gonzo had 15 catches for 207 yards. Wideout Marvin Harrison's (knee) replacement missed two games. In the four games since he has been back, Gonzo has 21 catches for 347 yards and three touchdowns. Two weeks ago at the Baltimore Ravens, Gonzo caught his first two NFL touchdown passes. Last week, his fourth quarter score was the first game-winning touchdown catch of his career.
Eagles RB Brian Westbrook vs. Saints defense
Westbrook is easily the Eagles' most valuable and productive offensive weapon this year. He leads Philadelphia rushers with 1,191 yards on 254 carries, for an impressive 4.7 yards-per-carry average, and seven touchdowns. The NFL's leader in total yards needs 165 rushing yards over the last two games to surpass running back Duce Staley and become the franchise's third all-time rusher, behind running backs Wilbert Montgomery and Steve Van Buren. Westbrook needs five receptions to match former wideout Irving Fryar's team receptions record for a season. Westbrook leads the Eagles with 83 catches, 19 more than his closest teammate. He also has five touchdown receptions, giving him an even dozen total on the season. The Saints did an uncanny job of limiting Westbrook as a receiver last year. He caught three passes for three yards in the regular season meeting, and then he had just three for five yards in the playoff encounter. Westbrook did run for 116 yards on 13 carries in the playoff game, though. The Saints defense this year has been susceptible to big plays. While Westbrook might do most of his damage underneath, sometimes shoddy tackling has been a thorn in the Saints' side this year. Westbrook will be the most threatening offensive weapon the Saints have faced this year.
Saints QB Drew Brees vs. Eagles pass defense
Since ending Week 4 with one touchdown pass and nine interceptions, Brees has been back at last season's Pro Bowl level - 24 touchdown passes and six interceptions. The Eagles' secondary is coming off its best game of the year, one in which it helped hold Dallas to six points. Defensive coordinator Jim Johnson had corner Lito Sheppard shadow Cowboys receiver Terrell Owens, and Sheppard did a tremendous job, earning NFC Defensive Player of the Week honors.
Saints WR Marques Colston vs. Eagles CB Lito Sheppard
Colston has been the Saints' most productive receiver this season and is coming off another big game in last week's win over the Arizona Cardinals. In that one, he caught eight passes for 114 yards and a touchdown. After a slow start this season, Colston has caught 87 passes for 1,092 yards and nine touchdowns. Sheppard last week shut down Dallas' Owens, holding him to just two catches for 37 yards. Sheppard has just two interceptions this season, but he is often matched up against an opponent's best receiver, so expect him to face off against Colston this week.
Raiders QB JaMarcus Russell vs. Jaguars secondary
Russell will start the game on the sidelines, but expect his time on the field to increase over what it has been. The Raiders have brought him along slowly, but he saw his most extensive action last week when he played for three series against Indianapolis. That could easily get moved up to a quarter's worth of play for the top pick of the 2007 draft. He'll get a stern test from a Jaguars secondary that features crafty veteran defensive backs Brian Williams, Sammy Knight and Rashean Mathis, who have a combined 22 years of NFL experience between them. Look for the Jaguars to blitz much more than they did last week, when they were able to sack Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger five times (for minus-40 yards) using primarily a four-man rush.
Raiders RB LaMont Jordan vs. Jaguars linebackers
Much of the responsibility for the Raiders' ground game will likely fall back to Jordan, who started the first seven games of the season before running back Justin Fargas (knee) took the job away from him. With Fargas now restricted by a knee injury, the job falls back to Jordan. Jordan has gained 549 yards, on 144 carries, this season, but that's about half of the total that Fargas has accumulated. Jordan has shown that he's capable of putting up big numbers, though. He had a 121-yard game and a career-high 159 yards in two September games this year. The Jaguars linebacking trio of Daryl Smith (in the middle), Justin Durant and Clint Ingram has been solid. In the team's last five games, since they have been playing together, only one team has rushed for more than 94 yards in a game - Pittsburgh, last week, with 111.
Raiders WR Ronald Curry vs. Jaguars CB Rashean Mathis
The Raiders have had trouble on the ground against elite run defenses, and Jacksonville qualifies. That means the Raiders will need ball-control passing to move the chains. That means plenty of opportunities for Curry, the focal point of the Raiders' short and intermediate routes. Mathis, at 6-foot-1, 190 pounds, isn't the smallish cornerback Curry usually has his way with. However, Mathis has missed time with a groin injury in the past month, and Curry may be able to get physical with him.
Jaguars QB David Garrard vs. Raiders LB Thomas Howard
Garrard continues to be the surprise quarterback of the season. He could be out to prove he deserved a Pro Bowl spot after he was selected as a second alternate despite having the second best quarterback rating in the NFL, at 101.6. He ranks first in two categories: the lowest number of interceptions thrown (two) and the best third-down passer rating in the league (123.8). Garrard likes to throw the short passes in the flat or over the middle, and that's where Howard has been at his best. He has already picked off six passes and returned them 172 yards, and two went for scores. Howard has a current streak of four games with an interception, the first time a linebacker has done that since 1980.
Jaguars RB Fred Taylor vs. Raiders defensive front
Taylor may also be running with a chip on his shoulder after yet another Pro Bowl snub. He has never made one despite being 18th all-time among career NFL rushers. Right now, he's running as well as he has at any time in his career, having posted four consecutive games of more than 100 yards rushing. He has had at least one gain of 29 yards or longer in each of the last four games. With Oakland ranking 15th among the 16 AFC teams in run defense, Taylor will be looking for a fifth straight game in which he tops the century mark. The Raiders' front, led by former Pro Bowl defensive tackle Warren Sapp, has been streaky in stopping the run. In the last six games, they've held opponents to less than 90 rushing yards three times, but in the other three they allowed 164, 179 and 228.
Jaguars TE Marcedes Lewis vs. Raiders SS Michael Huff
In his second year from University of California-Los Angeles, Lewis has emerged as a valuable receiver in a run-oriented offense. He has 37 receptions for 391 yards. He also has blocked so well Jacksonville has not missed Kyle Brady, who was known for his blocking. At 6-foot-6 and 270 pounds, Lewis has a tremendous size advantage on Huff, who at 6-foot-1 and 205 pounds is built more like a corner than a strong safety. Huff has been strong in coverage and is third on the team in tackles, although he is not a big hitter.
Falcons WR Roddy White vs. Cardinals CB Roderick Hood
Hood has had his moments of good (two two-interception games) and bad (he has gotten lost two or three times in coverage, allowing a bomb like the one he gave up to Saints wideout David Patten). However, he is the best corner the Cards have. White, meanwhile, is one of few threats the Falcons have these days. If Hood can slow him down - which can be done, knowing that the Falcons don't have much else - the Cards will be in good shape.
Cardinals RB Edgerrin James vs. Falcons run defense
James needs 108 yards to surpass his 2006 total of 1,159. James has been playing well, averaging 5.3 yards per carry against New Orleans. He almost certainly would have been able to crack 100 yards if the Cards could have given him the ball more than 16 times. James has failed to get more than 18 carries in five of the last seven games, a somewhat surprising number. That should change Sunday if he continues to produce. The Falcons' run defense also could be hurt by the potential absence of defensive end John Abraham (knee). Atlanta is ranked 27th against the run (128.4 yards allowed per game) with Abraham in the lineup. James could have a big day.
Cardinals WRs Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald vs. CBs DeAngelo Hall and Chris Houston
Boldin (hip, toe) came back last week from injuries and turned in a solid effort. Fitzgerald said that he has been slowed by a groin injury but is feeling well. The Falcons' Hall is have a solid season, although he didn't make the Pro Bowl team. Houston (knee) has struggled at times in his rookie season, but he may be playing this week with a sore knee.
Buccaneers RB Earnest Graham vs. 49ers LB Patrick Willis
Graham likes to run between the tackles, so he'll be running right at Willis on a lot of plays. Graham has good power and deceptive speed. He tends to make his first move after he gets past the line, so Willis could be in for a tough day. Willis reads and reacts well to plays, but he struggles sometimes to disengage lead blockers. If the Bucs get a good day from their fullback, Graham could follow suit.
Buccaneers WR Joey Galloway vs. 49ers CB Nate Clements
Galloway has great speed, but he struggles to get past press coverage. Clements is very physical and aggressive, so he could really slow Galloway down at the line. Clements also has the speed to turn and run with Galloway, so this is a tough matchup for the Bucs' deep man. He must be quick off the line and run sharp routes to win this battle.
49ers QB Shaun Hill vs. Buccaneers pass defense
Hill (finger) is playing with a broken and dislocated right index finger, which makes it difficult for him to get the ball down the field. Against the Bengals, Hill predominantly used a bunch of underneath passes to keep the chains moving. Tampa Bay owns the No. 2-ranked pass defense in the league, so they will probably play up on the 49ers' receivers and challenge Hill to throw the ball deeper. Hill's accuracy with the longer passes might be tested. Niners receiver Darrell Jackson had his best game with the 49ers in Hill's first start. Jackson caught eight passes for 86 yards last week against the Bengals.
49ers RB Frank Gore vs. Buccaneers run defense
Gore is closing in on the 1,000-yard mark, as the 49ers have made an attempt to get the ball in his hands a lot in recent weeks. In the past four games, Gore has averaged 95 yards rushing and 52.3 yards receiving per game. If the 49ers do not fall behind early, Gore can be a factor for four quarters. Hill is adept at checking the ball down to the backs, so even if the 49ers have to throw the ball a lot to catch up, Gore can still be a factor in the passing game. It could be difficult for the 49ers to get much going against the Bucs, who own the No. 3 overall defense in the league.
Patriots QB Tom Brady vs. Dolphins secondary
Brady leads all NFL quarterbacks in every major passing category there is. His 119.7 passer rating is stellar. He's on pace to break the touchdown passing record, and there's little the Dolphins' injury-depleted secondary can do to stop him. The last time these two teams played, back in October, Brady passed for 354 yards and six touchdowns. As impressive as those numbers might seem, it's even more eye-opening when considering he did it in 3 1/2 quarters of work. That was before the Dolphins lost safeties Renaldo Hill (knee), who tore an ACL in that game, and Cameron Worrell (knee), who suffered a season-ending ACL tear a month later. Now it's Jason Allen's and Lance Schulters' turn to play the safety spots and keep track of Brady and his receivers. Allen, a 2006 first-round pick, gets himself in trouble when he has to think too much on the field, and Schulters' specialty is run support, not his coverage skills. Schulters has been susceptible to the deep ball in the two games he has started as Worrell's replacement. The Dolphins are only allowing 189 passing yards per game, but opponents have scored 22 touchdowns through the air. The Dolphins usually have to blitz to get pressure on the quarterback, which could mean Brady is looking at plenty of open receivers Sunday.
Patriots RB Laurence Maroney vs. Dolphins run defense
Last week, Maroney posted his second 100-yard rushing game of the season and third of his career. This after hearing questions for several weeks about his preference to "dance" behind the line rather than find a hole and hit it. He gained 104 yards on 26 carries and scored his third rushing touchdown of the season against the New York Jets. Maroney averaged 4.0 yards per carry last week, but perhaps most important was that he did not have any carries that resulted in negative yardage. Maroney is averaging 4.2 yards per carry. Another strong game will boost his confidence heading into the postseason and buoy the Pats' running game. The Dolphins defense has consistently been the NFL's worst at stopping the run. The aging defense, which features an injury-depleted front line, is last in the league against the run, allowing nearly 156 yards per game. The unit usually wears down in the second half because the Dolphins' limitations in personnel and nagging injuries. Defensive end Jason Taylor (foot) is questionable; defensive linemen Matt Roth (groin), Vonnie Holliday (ankle) and Keith Traylor (ankle, knee) continue to play with bothersome injuries. The Dolphins are also without starting linebackers Zach Thomas (concussion) and Channing Crowder (knee); linebacker Joey Porter (shoulder) is playing with a shoulder injury that limits his ability to provide crushing hits. That means New England might be able to push the Dolphins around if they consistently go to the ground game.
Patriots WR Randy Moss vs. Dolphins CB Michael Lehan
Moss, named to his sixth Pro Bowl team this week, had just four catches in the Pats' first meeting against Miami this season - but they went for 122 yards and two touchdowns. Lehan will likely see a lot of time lined up opposite Moss, who has 19 touchdowns this season. Lehan will need deep help as well. Miami has placed four safeties on Injured Reserve this season, including Hill, who was hurting defending Moss in the end zone during their first meeting.
Ravens RB Willis McGahee vs. Seahawks run defense
McGahee is on one of his best runs as a Raven, cracking 100 yards in three of his past five games. He is coming off a 104-yard rushing performance against the Dolphins, the worst run defense in the NFL. McGahee should get 20-plus carries again this week, especially if the Ravens have to start rookie quarterback Troy Smith. It'll be a tougher challenge this week against the Seahawks, who ranks 13th in run defense. The Seahawks haven't given up a 100-yard rusher at home this season. In fact, only two running backs (Edgerrin James and Willie Parker) have gained more than 100 yards against Seattle. In the past two games, Seattle hasn't allowed a running back to surpass 61 yards rushing. However, as tough as the Seahawks defense has been this season (fifth in points allowed per game and second in three-and-outs), they have given up a lot of long runs - three of them for touchdowns. Considering Baltimore's eight-game losing streak, this will be a great opportunity for McGahee to make some headway nationally. Of course, he'll have to lose Seahawks middle linebacker Lofa Tatupu, which won't be easy - if only because the Seahawks' three-time Pro Bowler is always zeroed in on the ball carrier. If McGahee is shut down early, Baltimore may have to rely to rookie quarterback Troy Smith.
Seahawks QB Matt Hasselbeck vs. Ravens pass defense
Hasselbeck could have a big game against the Ravens, who struggled against Miami quarterback Cleo Lemon (315 yards and one touchdown passing). The biggest problem is that the Ravens will be without both first-string cornerbacks - Chris McAlister (knee) is on Injured Reserve, and Samari Rolle (shoulder) is nursing a shoulder injury. In the four games that they have played without McAlister and Rolle, the Ravens have given up 10 passing touchdowns. In his past three home games, Hasselbeck has produced eight touchdowns and one interception. He was 27-for-41, passing for 274 yards and a touchdown, in the 13-10 loss to the Panthers last week. However, Seattle did essentially nothing all day - they scored with one second left. All season, there have been offensive line problems, which haven't affected Hasselbeck as much as they have shredded the running game. After watching what the Panthers defense did to them - sacking Hasselbeck three times and hitting him several more - this is a very important game to iron out their difficulties, though. Almost everything has fallen on Hasselbeck's shoulders this season. He's breaking franchise records right and left despite no running game and an erratic line; he has had his starting receivers for just four games all season. He certainly earned his third Pro Bowl appearance, but it is far more important that he accomplishes a lot this week.
Seahawks RB Shaun Alexander vs. Ravens run defense
Alexander will struggle against the Ravens' run defense, the one constant in a miserable season for the Ravens. Linebacker Ray Lewis (finger) won't be at full strength because of a dislocated finger, but the Ravens are too powerful up front with defensive linemen Haloti Ngata and Kelly Gregg. The Ravens haven't given up a 100-yard rusher in 17 straight games, the longest streak in the NFL. The one chink in the armor has been rushing touchdowns. The Ravens only gave up four rushing touchdowns in their first 11 games, but they have now allowed four in their past three.
Jets WR Jerricho Cotchery vs. Titans CB Nick Harper
After missing the Miami game because of a broken finger, Cotchery (finger) has 12 receptions for 172 yards in his last two games. With quarterback Chad Pennington likely to start in place of a banged-up Kellen Clemens (rib). With the uncertain status of wideout Laveranues Coles (ankle), Cotchery figures to get the bulk of the work, and he has the ability to turn a short pass into a long gain. Cotchery leads the Jets with 66 catches for 902 yards and has been a go-to guy for either quarterback. Harper has given up some plays this season because sometimes he is over-aggressive.
Titans WR Roydell Williams vs. Jets CBs Hank Poteat and Darrelle Revis
Williams, a third-year wideout, has 22 of his 45 receptions and three of his four touchdowns in the last six games. That includes a four-catch, 94-yard effort in a win over Kansas City last week. Williams caught a career-high two touchdown passes in that game, including a 41-yarder. He leads the Titans in catches, receiving yards and yards per reception (13.5). Quarterback Vince Young's ability to escape the pocket and buy time means the Jets' secondary must stick with the Titans' receivers downfield in case Young decides not to run. Revis has been assigned to several of the league's top receivers this season and could be matched up against Williams a good part of the day.
Redskins WR Santana Moss vs. Vikings CB Cedric Griffin
Moss leads Redskins wide receivers with 49 receptions for 622 yards and likely will find himself facing Griffin on several occasions. Griffin's play has improved throughout this season, so this should prove to be an interesting matchup. With corner Antoine Winfield (pectoral) slowed by a strained pectoral muscle, Moss also could find himself going against rookie Marcus McCauley at the left cornerback spot. McCauley started four games in place of Winfield when the veteran was out because of a hamstring injury and acquitted himself very well.
Redskins C Casey Rabach vs. Vikings DTs Kevin Williams and Pat Williams
It's strength versus strength: The Redskins' running game versus the Vikings' run defense. Washington's 116.7 yards per game rank 11th in the league, and Minnesota leads the NFL, allowing only 67.9 yards per game. The anchors are Kevin Williams and Pat Williams. Both will be starting in the Pro Bowl. Pat (6-foot-3, 317 pounds, age 35) has 73 tackles, including eight for negative yardage; Kevin (6-foot-5, 311 pounds, age 27) has 42 tackles, including six for negative yardage. It will be up to Rabach to take on one of them. He must also communicate with offensive guards Pete Kendall and Jason Fabini about double teams.
Vikings RB Adrian Peterson vs. Redskins LB London Fletcher
The Pro Bowl rookie has been held to less than 100 yards rushing in the past two games. The Redskins will need their veteran middle linebacker to be exceptional in run support if that trend is going to continue Sunday night. Of course, Fletcher, who leads Washington with 120 tackles, will be only part of the solution if Peterson is to be slowed again. Defensive tackles Cornelius Griffin and Anthony Montgomery will be counted on to clog the middle as the first line of defense.
OT Bryant McKinnie vs. Redskins DE Andre Carter
McKinnie is Pro Bowl bound after another solid season. At 6-foot-8 and 335 pounds, he teams with left offensive guard Steve Hutchinson to form arguably the best left side in the NFL. McKinnie is equally good at run and pass blocking. Carter isn't as two-dimensional. He leads the Redskins with 10.5 sacks, but he isn't the best run stopper in the division, much less the NFC. He has only two tackles for lost yardage. The Giants worked the left side often last week against Washington, but the Redskins' linebackers were able to help Carter. Expect the Vikings to wear out the left side.
Broncos QB Jay Cutler vs. Chargers pass defense
The Chargers are coming off a game in which they had five interceptions against Detroit quarterback Jon Kitna. The Chargers' pass defense can clearly make plays, especially with cornerback Antonio Cromartie, who leads the NFL with 10 interceptions. Still, the Chargers can be had in the air. They are rankled No. 22 in the NFL in pass defense and are allowing 220.4 passing yards per game. Cutler is 10th in the NFL in quarterback rating, and he is passing for an average of 221.1 yards per. He has a chance for some decent yardage, especially with San Diego star pass rushing linebacker Shawne Merriman (knee) banged-up.
Broncos RBs Selvin Young and Travis Henry vs. Chargers run defense
The Chargers are no longer the standard of run defense in the NFL. They can be beaten on the ground. San Diego has the 16th-ranked run defense in the NFL. They are allowing 107 yards per game on the ground and 4.1 yards per carry. Denver still has a powerful running game with Young and Henry. The Broncos are ranked eighth in the NFL in rushing. They are averaging 124.1 yards per game and 4.5 yards per carry.
Chargers RBs LaDainian Tomlinson and Darren Sproles vs. Broncos run defense
The Chargers rolled up 214 yards rushing in the first meeting against Denver and should find yards easy to come by again on Christmas Eve. Tomlinson (116 yards, two touchdowns) and Sproles (122 yards, two touchdowns) each had more than 100 yards last Sunday against Detroit; they will likely be the team's two main ball carriers against Denver. Running back Michael Turner (shoulder), who had 147 yards against Denver earlier this season, could miss the game with a shoulder injury. Denver's front seven has been extremely soft and the Broncos rank a paltry 29th in the NFL in defending the run.
Chargers receivers vs. Broncos CBs Champ Bailey and Dre' Bly
The Chargers averaged more than 20 yards per completion earlier this season against the Broncos. That is an oddity when facing a team with elite cornerbacks such as Bailey and Bly. Bailey is headed to his eighth Pro Bowl and has three interceptions; Bly has a team-leading five interceptions. The Chargers hadn't yet acquired wideout Chris Chambers when they had the passing success earlier this season. That makes the performances of tight end Antonio Gates (seven receptions, 113 yards) and wide receiver Vincent Jackson (three receptions, 84 yards) in that game even more impressive. The Denver corners will want to redeem themselves during the nationally televised game and will need their line to pressure quarterback Philip Rivers into some hurried throws.
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