Could Haren Flourish in Desert?

December 17, 2007 @ 08:26:29

By Ryan Erb
Edited by Tim Heaney

After three years in the American league, starting pitcher Dan Haren returned to the National League when the Arizona Diamondbacks acquired him as part of a nine-player deal on Friday, Dec. 14. The Diamondbacks shipped six prospects to the Oakland Athletics in order to land Haren, while also receiving pitcher Connor Robertson in the deal.

Into the Desert

Haren is coming off his best season as a major league hurler, recording a 3.07 ERA and 15-9 record in 34 starts last year for the Athletics. Haren was equally effective in the previous two seasons, notching a 14-13 mark in 2006 and a 14-12 record in 2005.

The Diamondbacks receive Haren at not only the prime of his career but also at a very price-conscious contract. Haren is under contract for $4 million in 2008 and $5.5 million in 2009 with a club option for $6.75 million in 2010. When comparing that to many of the free-agent pitching contracts being thrown around this year, the Diamondbacks might have gotten a steal.

The St. Louis Cardinals are responsible for giving Haren a chance at starting, letting the then-22-year old righthander make 14 starts in the 2003 campaign. Haren struggled in 72 2/3 innings pitched, managing a 5.08 ERA and 3-7 record in his rookie season. In 2004, Haren found his niche with the Cardinals as a reliever, making 14 appearances and five starts while notching a 4.50 ERA.

When the Cardinals traded for left-handed starter Mark Mulder from the Athletics, Haren was sent to Oakland to take Mulder's place in the A's rotation. Haren has won at least 14 games in each of his three seasons in the American League and has also thrown 200-plus innings each year.

Table: Dan Haren Statistics, 2003-2007

Year	Team	G-GS	W-L	IP	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2003	STL	14-14	3-7	72.2	22	43	5.08	1.46
2004	STL	14-5	3-3	46.0	17	32	4.50	1.35
2005	OAK	34-34	14-12	217.0	53	163	3.73	1.22
2006	OAK	34-34	14-13	223.0	45	176	4.12	1.21
2007	OAK	34-34	15-9	222.2	55	192	3.07	1.21
TOTALS	130-121	49-44	781.1	192	606	3.82	1.24

Haren has shown signs of improvement every season as a starter since 2005. His strikeout total has increased steadily with 163 in 2005, 176 in 2006 and 192 in 2007. He finished eighth in the American League in that category last year.

His most impressive growth on the mound has come in the form of control and command of the plate. Haren has lowered his WHIP every season before matching his career best of 1.21 in 2007. Usually when a pitcher keeps the ball around the plate it results in home runs, but Haren allowed seven fewer home runs than he did in 2006 (31) with only 24 long balls allowed.

Place in the Rotation

Haren's arrival in Phoenix will potentially give the Diamondbacks one of the National League's best starting pitching trios as he will slide in between fellow starters Brandon Webb and Randy Johnson. Of course, a lot remains to be seen concerning Johnson's health at 44-years old, but that is for another fantasy impact article. Both Webb and Haren should hurl 200-plus innings for the Diamondbacks while making prospective runs at the NL Cy Young Award.

Arizona's Chase Field is a bit more of an offensive park compared to the deep alleys that Haren had grown accustomed to in Oakland's McAfee Coliseum. The Diamondbacks' home field ranked No. 11 overall last year in home runs allowed per game (1.112), and Haren's old stomping grounds, McAfee, finished at No. 25 (0.786).

Despite the switch to a more offensive ballpark, Haren gets the benefit of facing a pitcher every nine batters in the National League. Facing the opposing pitcher is likely going to help Haren top 200 strikeouts for the first time in his career.

Fantasy Outlook

Arizona ranked No. 26 with 4.39 runs per game in 2007. This assumed lack of offense in 2008 and a move to a hitter's ballpark will likely scare of potential fantasy suitors of Haren. However, do not be fooled and sucked into this line of thinking as Haren offers consistency in both of the ratios (ERA and WHIP) as well as strikeouts.

The majority of Haren's starts in 2008 will be against the National League West. He owns a combined 3.10 ERA in 13 career starts against the other four teams. Aside from the Rockies, who were ranked No. 5 overall in 2007 in runs scored, the other three divisional foes for Haren all ranked in the bottom 10 in runs scored last season. His value in 2008 fantasy drafts could generally see him taken within the top 10 pitchers, but if he would be a fantastic value if he slips into the middle rounds.

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Ryan Erb
Ryan has been a KFFL contributor since 2006.

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