Will Valverde Repeat Success in Houston?

December 17, 2007 @ 05:57:40

By Kent Wilson
Edited by Tim Heaney

On Friday, Dec. 14, the Houston Astros acquired closer Jose Valverde from the Arizona Diamondbacks in exchange for relief pitcher Chad Qualls, infielder Chris Burke and right-hander Juan Gutierrez.

There has been fear and moaning at the tail end of Astros games for two years since St. Louis Cardinals first baseman Albert Pujols demolished an offering from former closer Brad Lidge in the 2005 American League Championship Series. The ball - along with Lidge's confidence - was lost in Houston and an alpha dog has not yet emerged from the bullpen. After trading Lidge to the Philadelphia Phillies earlier this offseason, the Astros finally made a splash to fill that void.

Coming off a Career Year

The 28-year-old Valverde was one of the best closers in baseball last year, leading the majors with 47 saves while rebounding remarkably from a nightmarish 2006. In 64 1/3 innings pitched, Valverde also posted solid ratios with a 2.66 ERA and 1.12 WHIP, and opponents hit just .196 against him. He couldn't shake some of his control issues as he tied his career-high with 26 walks. He leaves a pronounced hitters’ park in Chase Field for a more neutral site in Minute Maid Park, although the nearsightedness of the 315-foot leftfield line is over-the-counter legible.

Table: Jose Valverde statistics, 2004-2007

Year	G	SV	IP	SO	ERA	WHIP	BAA
2004	29	8	29.2	38	4.25	1.35	.213
2005	61	15	66.1	75	2.44	1.07	.211
2006	44	18	49.1	69	5.84	1.46	.256
2007	65	47	64.1	78	2.66	1.12	.196

Valverde leaves a dynamite set-up corps in Arizona for an unassembled crew in Houston, he should have little trouble approaching his 2007 numbers in the Lone Star State. There is some concern, however, that his high-stress delivery will someday foreclose his success. Attention pattern seekers: over his five-year MLB career, Valverde has followed up a good year with a stinker.

Diamondbacks Get Possible Closer in Return

By acquiring Qualls (21 holds last year) to go along with relievers Brandon Lyons (league-leading 35 holds) and Tony Pena (30 holds), Arizona general manager Josh Byrnes has cornered the market on the late-inning commodity. But what about saves? Byrnes has said that they’ll all be candidates to close games and manager Bob Melvin has yet to weigh-in on the subject. Last year Qualls saved five games while Lyons and Pena each had a pair of saves. However, the closer situation might not be resolved until Spring Training at the earliest. He could be a late-round steal in fantasy drafts if you jump on him before the situation is resolved.

After being drafted 10th overall in 2001, Burke has never lived up to the high expectations that many had pegged for the University of Tennessee alumnus. He became a super-utility infielder/outfielder with the Astros, but never wrested any particular role away from an incumbent. He has no clear role in Arizona and will fill in when needed while updating his utility resume. It is unlikely that he will have a starting role in an already stocked outfielder, so drafting him would be a mistake.

Gutierrez played an ineffective and very limited role with the Astros last year and has yet to prove his worth. 

Valverde in 2008

Despite being one of the more reliable closers in baseball last year, Valverde hasn't reached elite status just yet. His reputation is too erratic to rely confidently on him as a No. 1 closer in 2008. There are much safer options to go with when drafting closers, including New York Mets closer Billy Wagner and San Diego Padres closer Trevor Hoffman.

Valverde has a little more upside than these two, but with a closer you want to avoid as much risk as possible. His past control problems have not completely left him. Valverde shouldn't be considered before the eighth round in standard 5x5 or 4x4 leagues, but could be taken as high as the sixth round in deeper leagues if you're desperate.

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Kent Wilson
Kent has been with KFFL since 2007.

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