AFC West Week 15 Fantasy Outlook

December 13, 2007 @ 13:57:36

By Richard Garcia
Edited by Herija C. Green

Note: All statistics appearing in this article are from Weeks 11-14, unless otherwise noted.

Do Not Bench List - All Positions

• Running Back Larry Johnson, Kansas City Chiefs: Johnson (foot) isn't expected to play this Sunday and hasn't played since Week 9. The window for Johnson to return this season is quickly closing.
• Running Back LaDainian Tomlinson, San Diego Chargers: Tomlinson heads into this week's matchup having put together solid back-to-back performances, rushing for 323 and scoring four total touchdowns in his last two games. He faces a Detroit Lions team that is vulnerable to both running and receiving from the position. They are allowing more than 100 yards rushing and 1.50 touchdowns on the ground, while allowing the second-most receptions (8.50) and tying for the most receiving touchdowns allowed (0.50) to the position over the last four weeks. Tomlinson is a must start every week down the stretch.
• Running Back Justin Fargas, Oakland Raiders: Fargas (ribs) was forced to leave the game early last week after suffering bruised ribs. Fargas, himself, fully expects to play this week, but at this point, his status remains uncertain. He is set to face the Indianapolis Colts, who are allowing 99.8 yards per game to the position while allowing one total touchdown in their last four games. Fargas has played well since taking over the starting job. In his last four games, he is averaging a little more than 100 yards and 0.5 touchdowns per game.
• Tight End Antonio Gates, San Diego Chargers: Gates (hip, back) was able to put up a respectable fantasy total, returning to the game after hurting his back to catch the game-tying touchdown late in Sunday's game. He is the sixth-most utilized tight end in the league over the last four weeks, averaging 7.25 targets per game. The Lions are allowing the most receptions to the position over the last four weeks, giving up six per game, making Gates a solid fantasy tight end option.
• Tight End Tony Gonzalez, Kansas City Chiefs: Gonzalez suffered an undisclosed injury during their game last Sunday but was able to return to the game, totaling seven receptions for 76 yards and a touchdown. In his last two games, he has hauled in 17 receptions for 216 yards and just the one touchdown. This week he faces a Tennessee Titans team allowing close to five receptions for a little more than 50 yards per game to the position in their last four games. Gonzalez should be played with confidence as a solid No. 1 option.

Quarterbacks

Player	Team	Gm	Pass Yds/G	Pass TD/G	INT/G	Rush Yards/G	Rush TD/G
Brodie Croyle	Kansas City Chiefs	3	148.7	0.67	0.67	3.3	0.00
Josh McCown	Oakland Raiders	2	125.5	2.00	1.00	14.0	0.00
Philip Rivers	San Diego Chargers	4	235.8	1.75	1.25	4.8	0.00

Croyle - Croyle managed to throw for a touchdown in last week's game, serving as the lone highlight for a Chiefs team that got manhandled by the Denver Broncos. He managed to complete 15 passes for 132 yards and has failed to throw for more than 169 yards in four starts this season. Croyle is far from being fantasy worthy and should remain on fantasy waivers.

McCown - McCown (illness) left the team's Week 14 game early after being forced to leave because of food poisoning. His status remains uncertain for this week's matchup, but one thing that is apparently certain is that quarterback JaMarcus Russell should see some game action after receiving no playing time in their last game. McCown has minimal value and should be benched against the Colts.

Rivers - Rivers' (knee) status for this week is up in the air after he suffered a knee injury in the first half of the team's Week 14 game. Rivers was able to return to the game and lead them to a come-from-behind victory, completing 21 passes for 228 yards and two touchdowns. The Lions are giving up the most passing yards (292.5) per game to the position in the league over the last four weeks while giving up two touchdowns per game during that span. His status should be watched closely if fantasy owners are relying on Rivers to get them to the title game.

Running Backs

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rush Yds/G	Rush TD/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Kolby Smith	Kansas City Chiefs	4	21.00 (34.81)	2.00 (38.42)	65.5	0.50	1.75	8.8	0.00

Smith - Smith (ankle) suffered an ankle injury during their Week 14 game and was only able to muster 12 yards on 13 carries. It was by far his most ineffective game since taking over for Johnson and running back Priest Holmes (retired). This week he faces a Titans run defense that has been allowing the fourth-most rushing yards in the league (132.8 per game) while giving up 1.25 touchdowns per game in their last four contests. Smith should be played as a No. 2 option due to his strong matchup.

Wide Receivers

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Dwayne Bowe	Kansas City Chiefs	4	8.75 (14.50)	0.25 (4.80)	4.50	54.2	0.25
Jerry Porter	Oakland Raiders	4	7.50 (11.86)	0.50 (6.85)	3.75	64.2	0.50
Chris Chambers	San Diego Chargers	4	7.50 (11.26)	0.75 (11.99)	3.75	63.8	0.25

Bowe - Bowe's numbers have progressively gotten worse in his last four games, in large part to three different quarterbacks playing during that time. He managed to haul in two receptions last week, tying his season-low, for 35 yards. Bowe, who hasn't caught a touchdown pass since Week 9, faces a Titans team that is in a multi-way tie for giving up the second-most touchdowns (1.50) per game to the position over the last month. Despite having a strong matchup, Bowe should be considered at best as a No. 3 receiving option.

Porter - While Porter isn't setting the world on fire the last couple of weeks, he has managed to catch two touchdowns during that time. He is the most utilized receiver in the offense, averaging 7.50 per game in their last four. The Colts defense is the sixth-best team in receiving yards against to the position, allowing just 130 yards per game in the last month. Porter should be considered no more than a solid No. 3 option at receiver.

Chambers - Chambers put up some respectable numbers in their last game, catching four passes for 90 yards. He is actually leading Gates in average looks per game (7.50) and matching him with 0.75 looks per contest in the red zone in their last four games. The Lions are giving up a healthy helping of plays to the receiver position, allowing more than 13 receptions for 178.5 yards and 1.25 touchdowns per game to the position. Chambers could be played as a moderate No. 2 or solid No. 3 option this week.

Tight Ends

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Zach Miller	Oakland Raiders	4	3.50 (5.53)	0.25 (3.42)	2.75	34.2	0.25

Miller - His numbers last Sunday are relatively consistent with what the tight end position has done all year; grabbing one pass for eight yards. There are only five teams that are better at shutting down the opposing tight end than the Colts, who are allowing just 32.8 yards and 0.25 touchdowns per game to the position over their last four games. Miller should be considered a low-end No. 1 or bench option with a weak play this week.

Place Kickers

Player	Team	Gm	XP/G	XPA/G	FG/G	FGA/G	Kick Pnts/G
John Carney	Kansas City Chiefs	2	1.00	1.00	0.50	0.50	2.5
Sebastian Janikowski	Oakland Raiders	4	2.00	2.00	2.25	2.75	8.8
Nate Kaeding	San Diego Chargers	4	2.25	2.25	1.75	2.00	7.5

Carney - Carney hasn't had many opportunities over the last two games that he has played; totaling just one field goal attempt and two extra points during that time. The Titans are one of the better teams against the position, allowing just 1.50 field goal attempts per game. He should remain super glued to fantasy benches for the coming game.

Janikowski - Janikowski is coming off his least productive game of the year, scoring one actual kicking point after missing his only field goal attempt. The Colts are another team that is tough against the kicker position, allowing only 4.5 points per game in their last four games, good enough for fourth-best in the league during that time. Janikowski is a weak play and should be considered a lower end fantasy option.  

Kaeding - Kaeding has been average all season, putting up double-digit points in only three of 13 games. This week could see him see an increase in opportunities. The Lions are tied for fifth-worst in the league over the last four weeks, giving up an average of 8.2 points to the position during that time. Kaeding could fill in as a No. 1 option if better options aren't available.

Defensive Teams

Team	Gm	Off Pnts Allw/G	INT/G	Sacks/G	FR/G	DEF/ST TD/G
Kansas City Chiefs	4	24.5	0.50	2.0	0.25	0.00
Oakland Raiders	4	22.5	1.25	1.8	1.50	0.00
San Diego Chargers	4	16.2	1.25	3.5	0.75	0.00

Chiefs - The team's defense has been less than stellar of late, coming off a game where they allowed 41 points to the Broncos. They are last in the league in creating turnovers over the last four weeks, averaging less than one per game during that time. Keep them on the fantasy bench for this week's matchup.

Raiders - The Raiders defense is good against the pass, but they have been getting shredded in the running game; allowing the second-most running yards per game (148.2) in the league over the last four weeks. While the team has been able to create turnovers, their matchup against a Colts offense that looks to be catching their second wind makes them a weak play. The Raiders should be benched.

Chargers - The Chargers will be without one of their key playmakers on defense this week, with linebacker Shawne Merriman (knee) sidelined with a knee injury. The defense is currently second in the league in sacks over the last four weeks, averaging 3.5 per game during that time. The Lions are on a downward spiral and could be in for a letdown game after losing to the Dallas Cowboys in the finals seconds of last week's game. Play the Chargers as a moderate No. 1 option.

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Richard Garcia
Garcia served as a managing editor for KFFL. Prior to his time with KFFL, Richard worked in managerial roles with both Frito-Lay Inc. and UPS. He received his Bachelor of Science degree in public relations from California State Polytechnic University-Pomona and fulfilled his internship requirements with the Los Angeles Kings Hockey organization in 2001.

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