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NFC North Week 15 Fantasy Outlook

December 13, 2007 @ 13:54:18

By Herija C. Green
Edited by Richard Garcia

Note: All statistics appearing in this article are from Weeks 11-14, unless otherwise noted.

Do Not Bench List - All Positions

Quarterback Brett Favre, Green Bay Packers: Favre (shoulder, elbow) was pretty quiet in many respects in Week 14, completing just 15 passes in chilly conditions at Lambeau Field. However, he made the most of it, throwing for 266 yards and two touchdowns as the Packers rolled past the Oakland Raiders. The team likely reined Favre in a bit because of his Week 13 injury and Oakland's ineptitude at stopping their running game. Expect him to be unleashed a bit more this Sunday against the St. Louis Rams, and keep him in your lineup.
Running Back Ryan Grant, Green Bay Packers: The NFL's leading rusher since Week 8, Grant has become a full-fledged fantasy stud in the second half of the season. The first-year back ran around and through the Raiders defense and finished the day with 156 yards on 29 carries and a touchdown (his fourth in the last three games). He is a weak play against the Rams, but he's still a high-end No. 1 back.
Running Back Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings: Somewhat lost in Minnesota's dismantling of the San Francisco 49ers last Sunday was Peterson's horrendous performance, gaining a mere three yards on 14 carries. That total was a full 42 yards less than his previous career low, set back in Week 10 against the Packers when he ran for 45 yards and left with a knee injury. This Monday looks like a good bounce back opportunity for the rookie, facing a Chicago Bears team he lit up for 224 yards and three touchdowns back in Week 6. Start Peterson with confidence this week.
Wide Receiver Greg Jennings, Green Bay Packers: First, the bad news. Jennings had a season-low two receptions this past Sunday. Now, the good news. Those two catches went for 100 yards and included an 80-yard touchdown catch; giving him an amazing 11 touchdowns in 11 games played. Needless to say he is to be kept in your lineup again this Sunday.

Quarterbacks

Player	Team	Gm	Pass Yds/G	Pass TD/G	INT/G	Rush Yards/G	Rush TD/G
Kyle Orton	Chicago Bears	-	--	--	--	--	--
Jon Kitna	Detroit Lions	4	277.2	0.75	1.25	2.2	0.00
Tarvaris Jackson	Minnesota Vikings	4	166.8	1.00	0.50	22.5	0.00

Orton - With quarterback Rex Grossman (knee) out for Week 15, Chicago will turn to Orton to make his first start since Week 17 of the 2005 season. The third-year pro never put up big numbers even when he was guiding the Bears to the playoffs, so don't even consider putting him in your lineup at this point in the season.

Kitna - Kitna did a decent job in almost leading his team to an upset win over the Dallas Cowboys in Week 14, but from a fantasy perspective, it was yet another forgettable performance from the veteran. He finished the day with 248 yards passing but failed to throw a touchdown for the first time since Week 8. He just isn't doing nearly enough to be relied upon in the fantasy postseason and should only be played as a desperation No. 1 quarterback. Keep him benched this Sunday.

Jackson - It was another week of error-free football from Jackson, playing under control while throwing for 163 yards and a touchdown against the 49ers. His maturation has been a big part of Minnesota's late-season charge, but he still isn't posting big enough totals to recommend for anything but bench duty this Monday night.

Running Backs

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rush Yds/G	Rush TD/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Adrian N. Peterson	Chicago Bears	4	19.50 (27.40)	4.75 (38.11)	39.5	0.50	3.50	34.2	0.00
Kevin Jones	Detroit Lions	4	17.00 (26.81)	2.75 (38.53)	52.8	0.75	2.25	16.2	0.00
Chester Taylor	Minnesota Vikings	4	22.00 (38.30)	3.75 (42.06)	103.0	1.50	2.50	22.5	0.00

Peterson - It has been a brutal three weeks on the ground for Peterson as the sixth-year back is averaging a mere 2.6 yards per carry. However, prior to Week 14 he had been able to supplement his porous work in the running game with solid receiving numbers. However, last Thursday he caught just one pass for nine yards to put the capper on a 44-yard effort. Things don't figure to get much easier against a tough Minnesota run defense this Monday, but Peterson is still playable as a No. 2 or No. 3 running back with a weak play.

Jones - Fantasy owners got even more fodder for their budding love-hate relationship with Jones. He ran for 92 yards and two touchdowns just one week after he managed just a single yard on three carries in Week 13. Jones pulled a similar maneuver on Thanksgiving Day when he rambled for 93 yards and a score following a two-week stretch in which he combined for 21 rushing yards on 15 carries. Despite the possibility for a colossally bad game, Jones needs to be played as a No. 1 or No. 2 option against the San Diego Chargers.

Taylor - While San Francisco held Peterson in check, they would have no such luck with Taylor, as he rattled off the longest touchdown run from scrimmage of the 2007 season with an 84-yard jaunt. He's been tremendous in the last month and should be played as a No. 1 back with a strong play versus the Bears.

Wide Receivers

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Bernard Berrian	Chicago Bears	4	9.75 (13.70)	1.75 (14.04)	5.50	69.0	0.50
Muhsin Muhammad	Chicago Bears	4	5.50 (7.73)	0.50 (4.01)	3.00	44.0	0.00
Calvin Johnson	Detroit Lions	4	7.25 (11.43)	0.75 (10.51)	4.00	49.0	0.50
Shaun McDonald	Detroit Lions	4	9.50 (14.98)	0.25 (3.50)	5.75	70.2	0.00
Mike Furrey	Detroit Lions	4	5.25 (8.28)	0.75 (10.51)	3.50	28.2	0.00
Donald Driver	Green Bay Packers	4	9.00 (15.24)	0.75 (9.44)	6.25	83.5	0.00
James Jones	Green Bay Packers	4	4.50 (7.62)	0.25 (3.15)	2.75	34.8	0.00
Sidney Rice	Minnesota Vikings	4	5.25 (9.14)	0.75 (8.41)	3.00	43.5	0.50

Berrian - Berrian was Chicago's bright spot offensively in Week 14, hauling in seven passes for 91 yards and a touchdown against the Washington Redskins. Since the team's Week 9 Bye, Berrian has scored in three of his five games and has totaled more than 55 yards in all but one game. The switch to Orton could hurt his value but not enough to keep him out of your lineup. He's a low-end No. 1 or strong No. 2 this week.

Muhammad - The veteran has been pretty quiet during the team's last six games, failing to score and surpassing 60 receiving yards just twice. That's not the type of production you want in your lineup at playoff time. Only use Muhammad to cover an injury, otherwise bench him.

Johnson - Outside of a big game on Thanksgiving Day (seven catches, 83 yards and a touchdown), Johnson has been mediocre at best in his rookie campaign. In his last nine games, he has been held to less than 50 receiving yards seven times; though he accounted for 51 on five catches in Week 14. This Sunday against the Chargers he is a low-end No. 3 and a weak play.

McDonald - With wide receiver Roy Williams (knee) out of action, McDonald took over as the team's top wideout last Sunday, pacing the club in both receptions (eight) and yards (96). He's been a steady contributor for the most part, but his inability to get into the end zone (one touchdown in his last nine games, none in his last five) limits his value to a shaky No. 3 with a weak play this Sunday.

Furrey - The absence of Williams didn't aid Furrey in Week 14 as the fifth-year veteran managed just two receptions for 15 yards. That performance coming just two weeks after being shutout merely cemented his status as a bench resident for Week 15.

Driver - Green Bay leaned heavily on their running game last Sunday, and Driver finished the day with only three catches for 38 yards. It was his lowest output since posting 28 yards on three receptions back in Week 8. Against a weak Rams secondary, view Driver as a No. 2 or No. 3 receiver with a strong play this week.

Jones - With Favre putting just 23 passes in the air, the rookie found himself the intended receiver exactly zero times in Week 14. It was the second time this year he's finished a game without a reception. While he is a strong play versus St. Louis this week, he shouldn't be played as anything more than a desperation injury replacement.

Rice - The rookie showed why he's not an airtight option, accounting for just 21 yards on two receptions last Sunday. It was the second time in four weeks he's finished a game with two catches and fewer than 25 yards receiving. However, sandwiched in between those two forgettable outings were back-to-back games with more than 50 yards and a touchdown. He's a mediocre No. 2 option this week.

Tight Ends

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Desmond Clark	Chicago Bears	4	4.25 (5.97)	0.75 (6.02)	2.75	44.2	0.25
Greg Olsen	Chicago Bears	4	5.75 (8.08)	1.25 (10.03)	3.25	22.8	0.00
Sean McHugh	Detroit Lions	4	2.75 (4.34)	1.00 (14.01)	1.25	20.8	0.00
Donald Lee	Green Bay Packers	4	3.75 (6.35)	0.75 (9.44)	3.25	40.0	0.75
Visanthe Shiancoe	Minnesota Vikings	4	2.50 (4.35)	0.50 (5.61)	1.50	31.2	0.00

Clark - Clark has experienced a renaissance in the last three weeks, punctuated by his 76-yard, one-touchdown performance in Week 13. Unlike Berrian, the switch to Orton could benefit Clark as he can operate as more of a safety valve. As such, he can be played as a decent No. 1 with a strong play against a Minnesota defense, who is allowing 50.8 yards and 0.50 touchdowns per game to the position in the last four weeks.

Olsen - Olsen has definitely taken a step back production wise with Clark's strong work of late. The rookie has had just one fantasy game of note in the past five weeks, and even that one was only noteworthy in point-per-reception formats when he had seven grabs for 43 yards in Week 11. Do to a strong matchup, he can be played this week as a low-end No. 1, or he can be benched.

McHugh - Despite a season-high 60 yards last week, McHugh remains an undesirable fantasy option. Keep him off your roster.

Lee - Lee had a big game in Week 14, racking up 71 yards and a touchdown against the Raiders. It came after two down weeks and reaffirmed that Lee is still a quality tight end, despite a couple of poor outings. He's got a tough matchup on paper against the Rams but can still be played as a solid No. 1 tight end this Sunday.

Shiancoe - Outside of being on the receiving end on a 79-yard bomb from Sidney Rice, Shiancoe has done virtually nothing in the last six weeks. In fact, the yardage total of his other eight receptions in that time (67) adds up to less than that single catch. Needless to say he is not worth owning.

Place Kickers

Player	Team	Gm	XPA/G	XP/G	FGA/G	FG/G	Kick Pnts/G
Robbie Gould	Chicago Bears	4	2.00	2.00	3.25	3.00	11.0
Jason Hanson	Detroit Lions	4	1.75	1.75	2.50	2.00	7.8
Mason Crosby	Green Bay Packers	4	4.00	4.00	2.50	1.75	9.2
Ryan Longwell	Minnesota Vikings	4	4.25	4.25	1.50	1.50	8.8

Gould - The Chicago kicker has been red hot over the last month, reaching double figures in four consecutive games and making at least three field goals in each of them. During that time he made 12 of his 13 field goal attempts. He is a weak play this Sunday but remains a top-tier No. 1 kicker.

Hanson - Detroit's longest-tenured player missed his most critical kick of the season in Week 14, and that miss most likely ended their hopes of making the playoffs. He ended the day with nine actual kicking points, but he has accounted for four points or fewer three times in the last five weeks. He is a shaky No. 1 or bench option with a weak play this Sunday.

Crosby - Despite missing four field goals in the last four weeks, Crosby continues to lead all NFL kickers in actual points scored (115). The rookie has scored seven points or more in each of his last seven games and is a top-ranked place kicker for Week 15.

Longwell - Longwell hasn't missed a kick since Week 9 and is having modest success for fantasy purposes, kicking behind a suddenly dangerous Vikings offense. Against the Bears, he is a low-end No. 1 kicker or bench candidate on Monday night.

Defensive Teams

Team	Gm	Off Pnts Allw/G	INT/G	Sacks/G	FR/G	DEF/ST TD/G
Chicago Bears	4	27.2	0.75	1.8	1.25	0.5
Detroit Lions	4	29.2	0.25	1.5	1.00	0.0
Green Bay Packers	4	21.8	1.50	1.5	0.50	0.8
Minnesota Vikings	4	14.0	2.00	3.0	1.00	1.2

Bears - Chicago has been brutal defensively over the last month, doing little to appease fantasy owners outside of a couple of forced turnovers and the occasional heroics of return man Devin Hester. Given their struggles, another matchup with Peterson and the Vikings seems to be the last thing they need. With that in mind, only start the Bears if you have no other options.

Lions - The Lions played a good game against Dallas last week, but they failed to hold a lead despite having a chance to scoop up the game-clinching fumble. Nearly devoid of big-play ability at this point, the Lions should stay on your bench until further notice.

Packers - Despite the mysterious disappearance of their pass rush during the last two games, the Packers still found ways to make fantasy owners happy last Sunday with a pair of special teams touchdowns by cornerback Will Blackmon. Safety Atari Bigby added an interception return for a score, but that play was called back on a personal foul by defensive end Cullen Jenkins. This week against the Rams they can be played as a weaker No. 1 or bench option.

Vikings - Minnesota has been one of the best fantasy defenses around in the past month, accounting for five touchdowns in the last four weeks. Add to the touchdowns, three sacks and three forced turnovers per game, and it's pretty obvious why the Vikings are a high-end No. 1 defense with a strong play against the Bears.