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AFC East Week 15 Fantasy Outlook

December 13, 2007 @ 13:44:36

By Christopher Watkins
Edited by Herija C. Green

Note: All statistics appearing in this article are from Weeks 11-14, unless otherwise noted.

Do Not Bench List - All Positions

Quarterback Tom Brady, New England Patriots: After little-known Pittsburgh Steelers safety Anthony Smith guaranteed victory over the Patriots last week, it was hardly a surprise that Brady responded with another monster performance. Brady threw for four touchdowns and 399 yards against an elite Pittsburgh defense. With that in mind, this is your weekly reminder to not bench Brady. He has a weak play matchup against the Jets, but you must start him as a strong No. 1.
Running Back Marshawn Lynch, Buffalo Bills: After much doubt as to whether or not he would play last week, Lynch (ankle) gave owners hope that he has fully recovered from his injury. He carried the ball 23 times for 107 yards against the Miami Dolphins and didn't suffer any setbacks. Lynch is a weak play against the Cleveland Browns this week, but he should be considered a No. 2 starter against a Browns defense that is giving up 107.8 rushing yards per game since Week 11.
Wide Receiver Randy Moss, New England Patriots: Moss has been unstoppable all season long, and the Steelers certainly didn't slow him down one bit. He posted two more touchdowns Sunday to bring his NFL-leading total to 19. In his last four games, Moss is averaging 1.75 touchdowns per game, so despite his weak play matchup this weekend, you should start him as a strong No. 1.
Wide Receiver Wes Welker, New England Patriots: Welker returned to his scoring ways Sunday, catching one touchdown and pulling down a team-leading nine catches. He continues to be Brady's favorite target, leading all Patriots receivers with an average of eight catches per game in the last four weeks. He's a weak play against the Jets this Sunday, but he should be a solid No. 2 starter.
New England Patriots, Defensive Team: Overshadowed by the offense all season long, the New England defense continues to impress. Since Week 11, the Patriots are giving up only 18.8 points per game, while causing 1.75 turnovers and sacking the quarterback twice per game in the same stretch. They are a strong play matchup against a weak Jets offense this Sunday and should be used as a No. 1 team defense.

Quarterbacks

Player	Team	Gm	Pass Yds/G	Pass TD/G	INT/G	Rush Yards/G	Rush TD/G
Trent Edwards	Buffalo Bills	2	211.0	2.00	0.00	3.0	0.00
Cleo Lemon	Miami Dolphins	1	241.0	0.00	2.00	4.0	0.00
Kellen Clemens	New York Jets	4	206.5	0.50	1.25	10.8	0.25

Edwards - What a difference a game against the Dolphins makes! Edwards likely locked up the starting job for the rest of the year last Sunday, a job that had been bouncing back and forth between him and quarterback J.P. Losman for much of the year. Edwards threw for four touchdowns against Miami, even in bad weather. This week the Bills continue their Wild Card chase with a trip to Cleveland. The Browns defense is giving up 247.5 yards passing and 1.25 touchdowns per game in the last four games, but it's difficult to count on a rookie quarterback on the road. Despite his big numbers against Miami, Edwards should be benched this week unless you are very thin at quarterback.

Lemon - Lemon has been named the starter for Sunday's game, and he seems to be the man to give Miami its best chance to win. That's become the ultimate goal for Miami, and Lemon has looked much better than rookie quarterback John Beck. The Ravens are giving up 2.25 passing touchdowns per game over the last four weeks, but two of those games were against Brady and Indianapolis Colts quarterback Peyton Manning. Lemon is a weak play against Baltimore and should stay on the bench.

Clemens - Clemens scored a rushing touchdown against a weak Cleveland defense last week but wasn't able to throw for a score and suffered two more interceptions. He has thrown five interceptions in the last four weeks against only two passing touchdowns, and the Jets have continued their season-long struggles to move the ball. The Patriots are giving up 1.75 passing touchdowns per game since Week 11, but Clemens is a weak play against them this week. Bench him.

Running Backs

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rush Yds/G	Rush TD/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Jesse Chatman	Miami Dolphins	3	18.00 (23.38)	1.33 (33.35)	38.3	0.00	1.33	3.3	0.00
Samkon Gado	Miami Dolphins	2	8.50 (7.36)	1.00 (16.68)	27.0	1.00	1.00	20.5	0.00
Laurence Maroney	New England Patriots	4	10.00 (14.80)	1.25 (7.27)	28.0	0.50	0.50	19.8	0.00
Thomas Jones	New York Jets	4	25.25 (37.29)	4.50 (36.58)	84.5	0.25	1.25	15.5	0.00
Leon Washington	New York Jets	4	7.00 (10.34)	1.50 (12.19)	24.2	0.50	1.75	17.8	0.00

Chatman - Chatman (ankle) was inactive against Buffalo last Sunday and is expected to practice in a limited capacity this week. Check the KFFL practice reports during the week to monitor his status. If he's able to play Sunday, he'll face a Baltimore defense that is giving up 83 yards and one touchdown per game to the position over the last four weeks. Keep in mind that if he does play, the coaches may be cautious with him, and he might split carries with Gado.

Gado - After a solid game against Buffalo last week, Gado may get another shot against the Ravens with Chatman's injury. Again, you need to check out KFFL and monitor the Dolphins running back situation. After Gado logged 93 all-purpose yards and two rushing touchdowns Sunday, the Dolphins may decide to ride his momentum in hopes of getting that elusive first win of the season. If you're thin at running back (and depending on Chatman's status), consider playing Gado as a weak No. 2 starter this Sunday.

Maroney - Maroney didn't see a lot of action against Pittsburgh, carrying the ball only eight times for 18 yards and no receptions. This week he'll face the Jets, who are giving up 113.2 rushing yards and 0.50 touchdowns per game to running backs in the last four weeks. Though the Patriots will probably continue to throw the ball, Maroney can be used as a No. 3 starter this week against the Jets.

Jones - Thomas ran for 106 yards against the Browns this past Sunday but was once again unable to find the end zone. This week he'll face a Patriots defense that has given up 104.5 rushing yards and 0.50 rushing touchdowns per game since Week 11. He can be used as a No. 2 starter this week.

Washington - Although Jones continues to get the bulk of the carries for the Jets, Washington did get his hands on the ball nine times against Cleveland, though it didn't result in much. This week Washington is no better than an injury replacement option against the Patriots.

Wide Receivers

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Lee Evans	Buffalo Bills	4	6.50 (11.38)	0.50 (18.12)	3.00	47.2	0.50
Marty Booker	Miami Dolphins	3	5.67 (7.36)	0.00 (0.00)	3.33	36.3	0.00
Donte' Stallworth	New England Patriots	4	6.00 (8.88)	0.75 (4.36)	3.25	46.8	0.00
Laveranues Coles	New York Jets	3	7.00 (7.75)	1.33 (8.13)	4.33	57.7	0.00
Jerricho Cotchery	New York Jets	3	7.67 (8.49)	1.00 (6.10)	3.00	55.7	0.00

Evans - Evans caught only two passes in Week 14, but both were for touchdowns against the bumbling Dolphins. This week Evans will face the Browns, who have given up 173.5 yards and 0.75 touchdowns per game to wide receivers during the last four weeks. Evans seems to be developing chemistry with Edwards, and he is a solid No. 2 starter this week.

Booker - Booker (knee) was inactive last week against the Bills and figures to be limited in practice this week. Keep checking KFFL to monitor his status going into Sunday's game against Baltimore, whose defense has given up 147.5 yards and 1.50 touchdowns per game to wide receivers the last four weeks. Even if he plays, Booker should probably occupy your bench.

Stallworth - In Week 14, Stallworth dropped from his customary third-favorite receiver position to Brady's fourth target, now behind Welker, Moss, and emerging wide receiver Jabar Gaffney. He only managed one catch for nine yards. Sunday against the Jets he's a weak play and should be used as no more than an injury replacement.

Coles - Coles was only able to get 48 yards out of his seven catches this past Sunday against a weak Cleveland pass defense. This week the Jets travel to New England, and the Patriots are giving up 162 yards and 1.25 touchdowns per game to wide receivers since Week 11. He's a strong play this week and can be used as a solid No. 3 starter.

Cotchery - Cotchery (finger) returned to action last week and was able to haul in six catches for 119 yards against Cleveland. Though he is still experiencing pain in his finger, he figures to play again this week. He's a strong play against the New England defense, and if the Jets are playing catch-up he could see a lot of balls thrown his way. He's a solid No. 3 option in Week 15.

Tight Ends

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Robert Royal	Buffalo Bills	4	2.50 (4.38)	0.25 (9.06)	2.00	18.0	0.50
David Martin	Miami Dolphins	4	3.25 (5.63)	0.00 (0.00)	2.25	18.8	0.00
Benjamin Watson	New England Patriots	4	5.25 (7.77)	1.25 (7.27)	3.00	29.8	0.25
Chris Baker	New York Jets	4	5.25 (7.75)	1.50 (12.19)	3.00	32.0	0.25

Royal - Royal had a huge game for his owners last Sunday, scoring two touchdowns on three total receptions. This week he'll face a Cleveland defense that is allowing 50.5 yards and 0.50 touchdowns per game in the last four weeks to tight ends. He's a weak play matchup this week and should be benched.

Martin - Miami tight ends combined for only three catches and 12 yards against Buffalo, and those numbers don't figure to improve against Baltimore this coming Sunday. Though the Ravens are giving up 59.2 yards and 0.50 touchdowns per game to the position the last four games, Martin has a weak play matchup and should stay on the bench.

Watson - Watson's fantasy production has been up and down this season, and you just never know how much Brady is going to target Moss and Welker over his other tight end and wide receiver choices. Last week Watson managed four catches for 33 yards, but this week he should stay on the bench unless you're thin at the position and don't have many other options.

Baker - Baker stretched his three Week 14 receptions into 48 yards against Cleveland, but this week the Jets visit the Patriots, and Baker has a weak play matchup. The Patriots are giving up only 27.2 yards per game to tight ends in the last four games, good for fourth in the league during that stretch. Baker should be benched.

Place Kickers

Player	Team	Gm	XP/G	XPA/G	FG/G	FGA/G	Kick Pnts/G
Rian Lindell	Buffalo Bills	4	2.00	2.00	1.75	2.00	7.2
Jay Feely	Miami Dolphins	4	1.00	1.00	0.75	1.00	3.2
Stephen Gostkowski	New England Patriots	4	4.50	4.50	1.25	1.75	8.2
Mike Nugent	New York Jets	4	1.25	1.25	3.25	3.25	11.0

Lindell - Lindell was busy against the Dolphins last Sunday, kicking five extra points and a 51-yard field goal. This week, the Bills travel to Cleveland and Lindell will be up against a Browns team that has given up 9.5 points per game to kickers since Week 11, fourth-worst in the league. Lindell is a strong play and can be used as a starter this week.

Feely - Feely hasn't been doing much of anything since Week 11, but it's hardly his fault. The Dolphins offense continues to struggle, and they might be in for more of the same against Baltimore. The Ravens are giving up a league-high 11 points per game to kickers in the last four weeks, but Miami's offense can't be trusted to move the football. Feely should be benched.

Gostkowski - Gostkowski's numbers are impressive in the last four weeks, and this week he'll face a Jets team that has given up 8.2 points per game to kickers in that same stretch. As the Patriots kicker, he could see several extra point opportunities in addition to any field goal attempts. Gostkowski is a strong No. 1 option for Week 15. Start him.

Nugent - Nugent's fantasy owners have benefited greatly by the Jets continuing inability to punch the ball into the end zone. Nugent had yet another big game last week, this time making four of four field goals and scoring 12 points. Nugent is a weak play in New England, but with the great numbers he's been putting up recently, he should earn a start as a low No. 1 kicker this week.

Defensive Teams

Team	Gm	Off Pnts Allw/G	INT/G	Sacks/G	FR/G	DEF/ST TD/G
Buffalo Bills	4	29.8	0.75	2.2	1.00	0.2
Miami Dolphins	4	23.0	1.25	2.8	0.50	0.4
New York Jets	4	18.8	1.50	3.2	0.75	0.0

Bill - The Bills only gave up 17 points to the Dolphins last week, but they are still giving up 29.8 points per game since Week 11, which is second-worst in the NFL during that stretch. That doesn't bode well for this Sunday as the Bills are headed to Cleveland to face a Browns offense that has put up 24.2 points per game in the last four weeks. The Bills defense is a weak play and should be benched.

Dolphins - After another embarrassing defeat last Sunday, the Dolphins defense will hope to rebound against the Ravens. Baltimore comes to town having posted only 299.2 yards per game on offense the last four weeks, good for only 26th in the league. If you need a one-week play defensive team for Week 15, consider starting the Dolphins, as they are a strong play.

Jets - After a close loss to the Browns in Week 14, the Jets get a nice trip to New England for their trouble. The Patriots have put up a league-leading 37 points per game since Week 11, averaging 4.2 touchdowns per contest. You see where this is going. The Jets are a weak play against New England this week and should remain firmly on the bench.