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NFC South Week 15 Fantasy Outlook

December 13, 2007 @ 13:23:32

By Michael Egnak
Edited by Richard Garcia

Note: All statistics appearing in this article are from Weeks 11-14, unless otherwise noted.

Do Not Bench List - All Positions

Running Back Earnest Graham, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Graham did not have the best of games during Week 14 against the Houston Texans, but he did manage to score twice. Graham was held to 61 rushing yards off 15 carries while hauling in six receptions for 45 receiving yards. Over his past four games, Graham has averaged 86.0 rushing yards and 1.25 rushing touchdowns. He is also averaging 4.00 receptions for 24.2 receiving yards per game. Graham is a No. 1 fantasy running back option for their Week 15 matchup against the Atlanta Falcons.
Wide Receiver Marques Colston, New Orleans Saints: Colston enjoyed a great game against the Falcons, bringing in nine passes for 92 yards and two touchdowns. He is averaging 6.75 receptions, 85.5 receiving yards and 0.75 receiving touchdowns over his last four games. Colston is a strong play that should be started by all fantasy teams in Week 15 against the Arizona Cardinals.

Quarterbacks

Player	Team	Gm	Pass Yds/G	Pass TD/G	INT/G	Rush Yards/G	Rush TD/G
Joey Harrington	Atlanta Falcons	3	159.3	0.67	1.00	1.0	0.00
Chris Redman	Atlanta Falcons	2	235.0	2.00	1.00	2.0	0.00
Vinny Testaverde	Carolina Panthers	3	170.3	1.33	1.67	4.7	0.00
Drew Brees	New Orleans Saints	4	264.2	2.25	0.75	4.2	0.25
Jeff Garcia	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	2	84.0	1.00	0.00	2.5	0.00
Luke McCown	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	2	289.5	1.00	0.50	22.0	0.00

Harrington - After being pulled in the fourth quarter for quarterback Chris Redman during Week 13, Harrington watched as Redman started the team's last game. Redman didn't perform too badly during the game, but a new factor may go into determining who starts in Week 15. Head coach Bobby Petrino resigned as coach, opting to become the head coach at the University of Arkansas. Taking over for Petrino is defensive backs coach Emmitt Thomas, who will be the head coach on an interim basis. Harrington could likely remain on the bench for their game against Tampa Bay Buccaneers and shouldn't be owned.

Redman - Making his first start in five years, the former insurance salesman was 23-for-40 for 298 yards with two touchdowns and one interception. Redman could likely start again in Week 15 and will face a Buccaneers team that he might not find easy to rack up numbers against as he did with the New Orleans Saints. Redman is worth using as a low-end No. 1 fantasy quarterback if a better option isn't available.

Testaverde - Testaverde struggled mightily against the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 14. He completed 13-of-28 pass attempts for just 84 yards with one interception before giving way to quarterback Matt Moore. However, Moore struggled as well, completing only three passes for 21 yards before the game thankfully ended for the Panthers. During his press conference this week, head coach John Fox said he would start the quarterback that gives the team the best chance to win in Week 15. In all likelihood, that quarterback is Testaverde. Even if he starts, he is a weak play and should be benched against the Seattle Seahawks.

Brees - Brees picked the Falcons apart in their Monday Night matchup, completing 28-of-41 passes for 328 yards and throwing for three touchdowns. Brees will face the Arizona Cardinals in Week 15, where he is a strong play and should be played with confidence as a solid No. 1 passing option.

Garcia - Garcia (back) is expected to start in Week 15 against the Falcons after missing his second consecutive start last week. He was a game-time decision heading into last week's game and ended up as the No. 3 quarterback behind Luke McCown and Bruce Gradkowski. If Garcia is able to play, he should be considered a weak play and benched by fantasy teams.

McCown - Filling in again for Garcia, McCown was 25-for-38 for 266 yards during the team's Week 14 game. He is expected to head back to the bench for their Week 15 game against the Falcons with Garcia expected to start. Should Garcia's back act up and McCown finds himself starting again, he would still be a weak play and should be left on the pine by fantasy teams.

Running Backs

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rush Yds/G	Rush TD/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Warrick Dunn	Atlanta Falcons	4	17.00 (24.48)	1.00 (19.09)	30.5	0.00	3.00	21.0	0.00
Jerious Norwood	Atlanta Falcons	4	7.75 (11.16)	0.50 (9.54)	38.0	0.00	2.00	24.2	0.00
DeAngelo Williams	Carolina Panthers	4	9.50 (14.74)	1.50 (15.41)	32.5	0.00	1.00	17.2	0.00
DeShaun Foster	Carolina Panthers	4	18.00 (27.92)	3.00 (30.81)	46.5	0.25	1.75	18.8	0.00
Aaron Stecker	New Orleans Saints	4	13.25 (19.37)	2.75 (31.68)	39.5	0.00	2.75	14.8	0.00

Dunn - Dunn was held to just three yards rushing on six carries while making only one reception for 11 yards against the Saints last week. He's a weak play for their Week 15 matchup against the Buccaneers, and his value is limited to that of a low-end No. 3 fantasy running back or injury replacement.

Norwood - Norwood did not have much success in the running game against the Saints as well, but he performed much better than Dunn. He carried the ball six times, gaining 21 yards while earning 57 receiving yards on two receptions. Norwood has been more productive than Dunn in terms of yards per game in both rushing and receiving over the past four games, despite being utilized less. With the team out of contention, Norwood could start seeing more playing time to get an idea of what they have for 2008. However, until that happens, his fantasy value remains low. He is a low-end No. 3 fantasy running back or an injury replacement for Week 15, where he is a weak play against the Buccaneers.

Williams - Williams struggled to find opportunities and yardage against the Jacksonville Jaguars after coming off one of his better games of the season in Week 13. He was held to seven yards on three carries and five yards on two receptions. The worst part is that one of his carries went for seven yards and one of his receptions went for five yards, meaning he had a combined three touches for no gain. Williams is worth using as a low-end No. 3 fantasy running back or as an injury replacement in Week 15.

Foster - While his teammate in the backfield struggled, Foster's outing against the Jaguars was a little better. He managed to gain 46 yards on the ground and just three yards off just one reception. With Foster being utilized nearly twice as much as Williams, he has slightly more fantasy value than his teammate. Foster should be viewed as a No. 3 fantasy running back for Week 15 against the Seahawks.

Stecker - With running back Reggie Bush (knee) missing the game, Stecker was called on to start for the Saints and performed well. Stecker was given 20 carries for 100 rushing yards during the game, averaging an even 5.0 yards per carry. He also caught three passes, giving him a little bonus in point-per-reception leagues. If the reports about Bush's knee are true, Stecker could likely be the starter for the rest of the season. Expect him to start again in Week 15 against the Cardinals, where he is worth using as a low-end No. 3 fantasy running back or as an injury replacement.

Wide Receivers

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Michael Jenkins	Atlanta Falcons	4	9.00 (12.96)	1.00 (19.09)	6.00	53.2	0.50
Roddy White	Atlanta Falcons	4	10.75 (15.48)	0.75 (14.31)	5.75	88.2	0.75
Steve Smith	Carolina Panthers	3	12.00 (13.96)	1.67 (12.84)	6.67	51.7	0.00
Devery Henderson	New Orleans Saints	4	2.00 (2.92)	0.25 (2.88)	1.00	29.0	0.50
Joey Galloway	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	4	6.50 (10.96)	0.50 (5.86)	4.25	82.5	0.25
Ike Hilliard	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	4	3.75 (6.32)	0.00 (0.00)	3.00	28.8	0.00

Jenkins - Jenkins caught nine passes for 83 yards and one touchdown during the team's Week 15 game. It was his most productive game so far this season and his second nine-catch game over their last four. He is worth using as a No. 3 fantasy wide receiver.

White - White continued to produce last week, hauling in three passes for 75 receiving yards with one touchdown. White has caught touchdown passes in three consecutive games and is worth starting as a solid No. 1 receiving option.

Smith - Smith caught six passes for 44 yards in Week 14. Looking at the table above, you can see that he's averaging the most receptions amongst those six receivers, but he's only fourth when it comes to receiving yards over his past four games. Even worse is he hasn't scored a touchdown since Week 6. Smith is a strong play for Week 15 against the Seahawks and worth using as a low-end No. 2 or as a No. 3 fantasy wide receiver.

Henderson - Henderson caught just one pass for 32 yards during the team's Week 14 game. He's has caught just one pass in each of his last four games while finding the end zone with two of those four receptions. Henderson's value is limited, making him a low-end No. 3 fantasy wide receiver or injury replacement.

Galloway - Galloway caught six passes for 87 receiving yards in his last game. He hasn't shown a decrease in production with either Garcia or McCown behind center, which is a plus considering their recent quarterback situation. Regardless of who starts, Galloway is a strong play who is worth using as a low-end No. 1 or as a No. 2 fantasy wide receiver in Week 15.

Hilliard - Hilliard (knee, back) suffered injuries during the team's Week 14 game, which limited him to just three receptions for 28 receiving yards. He has been very limited in practice this week and his status remains uncertain for this Sunday. Fantasy owners would be wise to avoid Hilliard, who is a weak play and should be benched.

Tight Ends

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Alge Crumpler	Atlanta Falcons	4	8.00 (11.52)	0.50 (9.54)	4.00	30.8	0.00
Jeff King	Carolina Panthers	4	6.00 (9.31)	1.25 (12.84)	2.75	18.0	0.25
Eric Johnson	New Orleans Saints	4	2.75 (4.02)	0.25 (2.88)	1.75	16.2	0.00
Alex Smith	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	4	3.75 (6.32)	0.25 (2.93)	2.25	35.5	0.25

Crumpler - Crumpler caught three passes for 16 receiving yards during the team's Week 14 game. Crumpler is only worth using as a low-end No. 1 fantasy tight end for their matchup against Buccaneers.

King - King caught two passes for 19 yards against the jaguars in Week 14. His fantasy value has progressively worsened, as he has failed to average more than 20 receiving yards per game in his last four. He is a weak play against the Seahawks, and is only worth using as a low-end No. 1 fantasy tight end.

Johnson - Johnson caught just two passes for 17 yards during the team's Week 14 game. He is a weak play who should be benched against the Cardinals in Week 15.

Smith - With McCown behind center, Smith was able to haul in two passes for 39 yards last week. He's been surprisingly decent lately, deserving of a starting spot on some fantasy teams. He will face the Falcons in Week 15, and is worth using as a low-tier No. 1 tight end if a better option isn't available.

Place Kickers

Player	Team	Gm	XP/G	XPA/G	FG/G	FGA/G	Kick Pnts/G
Morten Andersen	Atlanta Falcons	4	1.25	1.25	0.75	0.75	3.5
John Kasay	Carolina Panthers	4	1.50	1.50	1.50	1.50	6.0
Olindo Mare	New Orleans Saints	4	3.00	3.00	1.00	1.25	6.0
Martin Gramatica	New Orleans Saints	-	-	-	-	-	-
Matt Bryant	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	4	2.50	2.50	1.75	2.00	7.8

Andersen - With the team struggling to move the ball, Andersen was limited to just two extra point attempts during the team's Week 14 game. He is a weak play for their game against the Buccaneers, and should not be used by any fantasy team.

Kasay - Kasay accounted for all of the team's scoring in Week 14, converting both of his field goal chances for six points. Kasay was good from 49 and 39 yards during the game. Like Andersen, the accuracy is there but the problematic offense is preventing him from scoring opportunities. As a result, Kasay is a weak play who should be benched against the Seahawks in Week 15.

Mare - Mare's season came to a close on Wednesday, Dec. 12, after the team placed him of Injured Reserve, ending his 2007 season. The team replaces Mare on the roster with place kicker Martin Gramatica. Gramatica hasn't played all season and should be benched.

Bryant - Bryant was only able to kick two extra points against the Houston Texans in Week 14, matching a season-low he set in Week 5. Even though Bryant is averaging nearly eight points per game over his last four, he is a weak play who should be benched against the Falcons.

Defensive Teams

Team	Gm	Off Pnts Allw/G	INT/G	Sacks/G	FR/G	DEF/ST TD/G
Atlanta Falcons	4	28.0	0.75	1.5	0.75	0.0
Carolina Panthers	4	25.2	1.25	1.8	0.75	0.2
New Orleans Saints	4	17.5	1.25	2.0	0.75	0.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	4	14.2	1.00	3.0	2.25	0.2

Falcons - Another week, another poor outing by the Falcons defense. The team allowed 28 offensive points and 473 net yards to the Saints in Week 14. On top of that, they only recorded one fumble recovery, no sacks and no interceptions. The Falcons will face the Buccaneers this week, where their defense is a weak play that should be benched.

Panthers - Not much better than the Falcons defense was the showing, if you can call it that, the Panthers defense put up against the Jaguars. The Panthers allowed 31 offensive points and 427 net yards while recording just one fumble recovery. The Panthers will play the Seahawks in Week 15; where their defense is worth using as a very low-end No. 1.

Saints - The Saints held the Falcons offense to 14 offensive points and 323 net yards during Week 14, while recording three sacks. Cornerback Roman Harper also picked off a pass, which he returned 31 yards for a touchdown. The Saints will play the Cardinals in Week 15, where they are worth starting as a respectable No. 1 defense.

Buccaneers - The Buccaneers did give up 22 offensive points to the Texans in Week 14, but they held them to just 257 net yards while recording three sacks and recovering two fumbles. The Buccaneers defense will play a Falcons team that is in complete disarray heading into their Week 15 matchup. The Bucs' defense is a strong play and should be started as a solid No. 1 option.

Author Bio

Michael Egnak
Michael Egnak is a Hot Off The Wire Analyst at KFFL and has been with the company since 2005. Covering both NFL and MLB, Egnak is also a key contributor to KFFL's fantasy services.