Matchups to Exploit - Week 15
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December 13, 2007 @ 22:57:49
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By Hot off the Wire Network Contributors
Edited by Nicholas Minnix
Broncos QB Jay Cutler vs. Texans DL Mario Williams
Last week, Cutler threw four touchdown passes. Williams is playing his best stretch of football. He has 5.5 sacks over the last four weeks. He has picked up at least one sack in each of the last four weeks and leads the team with 9.5. He's fired up to play Thursday night, and he will try to keep his streak alive. Cutler has been sacked 17 times this season.
Broncos RB Selvin Young vs. Texans run defense
Young, a Houston native, will be fired up to play in his hometown. He is coming off a 156-yard performance against the Kansas City Chiefs. Young had only 17 carries in the game. He had 91 yards rushing in the first quarter. The Texans' run defense is ranked No. 23 in the NFL and is allowing 118.2 yards per game. Young could have a field day.
Texans QB Sage Rosenfels vs. Broncos CBs Champ Bailey and Dre' Bly
Rosenfels had a good game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, with three touchdown passes, in place of the injured Matt Schaub (shoulder). But he needs to be careful against Bailey and Bly. They make up a very skilled tandem, and they get their share of interceptions. The two cornerbacks are very smart and can manipulate young quarterbacks. Rosenfels may be confident after his play against Tampa Bay, but Bailey and Bly will make him pay if he gets too cocky.
Texans RB Darius Walker vs. Broncos run defense
Walker got his first taste of the NFL last week. This week, he is sure to get another large number of carries. Running back Ron Dayne (ankle) is hampered by a left ankle sprain, and the Texans want to see what Walker can do over the course of the rest of this season. Walker may get to pick up a little more steam than he did last week since the Broncos defense ranks 29th in run defense.
Bengals RB Rudi Johnson vs. 49ers run defense
San Francisco's run defense is tied for 25th in the league at 123.5 yards allowed per game. Johnson has run better of late with the improved health of an injured hamstring. He has rushed for a touchdown in each of the past three games and has run for 214 yards on 62 attempts in that span. Head coach Marvin Lewis said the offense has returned to some more between-the-tackles, straight-ahead runs for Johnson that it had gone away from.
49ers QB Shaun Hill vs. Bengals pass defense
Hill (finger) is playing with a broken and dislocated right index finger. He is scheduled for his first NFL start Saturday against the Bengals. Last week against the Minnesota Vikings, Hill played well in his first game action with the 49ers. He completed 22 of 27 passes for 181 yards, one touchdown and no interceptions. Hill has a quick release and a good poise in the pocket. But he is not capable of throwing the ball down the field as well as he would like while his finger is damaged. Hill has a chance to make some plays against the Bengals, whose defense ranks No. 29 in the NFL against the pass. The Bengals have not exhibited must of a pass rush this season, so Hill should have some time to throw.
49ers RB Frank Gore vs. Bengals run defense
Gore is similar to the St. Louis Rams' Steven Jackson, against whom the Bengals played well last week. Gore is the 49ers leading rusher and also leads with 46 receptions out of the backfield. He has raised his rushing average to 4.2 yards per carry this season, but the 49ers have not often had a chance to stick with the running game through four quarters. Gore still can rush for 1,000 yards. He has 781 yards on 187 carries. The 49ers need to get the running game going against the Bengals' 22nd-ranked run defense. The Bengals, however, are aiming for a sixth consecutive strong game defensively; the key, as middle linebacker Landon Johnson (a team-leading 89 total tackles) said, is to stop Gore on the ground and force the 49ers to pass. San Fran is last in passing offense (150.2 per game) and 29th rushing offense (85.5 per game). The running game is needed to take some of the heat off Hill, who is making his first NFL start.
Jets RB Thomas Jones vs. Patriots run defense
New England's run defense is only 14th in the league. The Jets will probably look to run the ball to try to keep some pressure off quarterback Kellen Clemens, plus slow down the Patriots' blitzes. This season, Jones has four 100-yard games, including a 106-yard effort against the Cleveland Browns in the last game. Jones had 99 yards on 23 carries versus the Patriots as a member of the Chicago Bears last season.
Jets offensive line vs. Patriots defensive line
The Jets' offensive line of D'Brickashaw Ferguson, Adrien Clarke, Nick Mangold, Brandon Moore and Anthony Clement has struggled to keep its quarterbacks upright: Between them, Clemens and quarterback Chad Pennington have been sacked 39 times (seventh most in the NFL); running back Thomas Jones is averaging 3.7 yards per carry. New York will need to be able to run the ball to have any chance against New England. The Pats' defensive line group got back to staying with its assignments last week against the Pittsburgh Steelers. New England said that was part of the problem against the Philadelphia Eagles and Baltimore Ravens. Nose tackle Vince Wilfork and defensive end Jarvis Green both had sacks in the Steelers game.
Patriots WR Randy Moss vs. Jets CB Darrelle Revis
Revis started on opening day in his NFL debut, and although he didn't cover Moss exclusively, he had his problems against him. The veteran wideout caught passes over Revis' head and blew right past him on a 51-yard touchdown catch on which Moss beat three defenders. Moss finished with nine receptions for 183 yards and one touchdown. With 12 games since under his belt, Revis may fare a bit better this week. If he doesn't, though, the Jets' top alternative is cornerback Hank Poteat, and the journeyman likely won't fare any better against Moss, who has 19 touchdown catches and 1,264 yards this season. The Jets likely will look to double team Moss, but unless they get pressure on quarterback Tom Brady (the Jets had no sacks in the first meeting), he should have time to find the superstar wideout.
Jaguars QB David Garrard vs. Steelers secondary
Garrard has played surprisingly well all season for the Jaguars. He has had just two games (the season opener against the Tennessee Titans and the first game against the Indianapolis Colts, when he suffered a first-half injury) in which his quarterback rating was less than 93. His one interception this season leaves him as the NFL's only starting quarterback with fewer than three picks. He'll go against a Steelers secondary still smarting from the 399 passing yards that New England's Tom Brady hung on them last week. Even with the high total, the secondary still owns the second lowest average of passing yards allowed this season, at 172.8 per game.
Jaguars RBs Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew vs. Steelers run defense
Taylor has been hot lately, accumulating over 100 rushing yards for three consecutive games. He also has two of the three longest runs in the league this year, with 76- and 80-yard scoring runs. Taylor has not been overworked, his 191 carries through 13 games is the lowest among the top 10 rushers in the AFC, while his 4.9 yards per carry ranks as the highest. Taylor will try to take advantage of the absence of the Steelers' top defensive lineman - defensive Aaron Smith (biceps) ruled out for the season with a torn biceps muscle. The impact Smith's loss will have on the Steelers' run defense that ranks No. 1 (72.6 yards allowed per game) will likely determine how successful Taylor is. It leaves Nick Eason and Travis Kirschke to handle the defensive end position against Taylor (944 yards) and Jones-Drew (655), who are tied for fifth and 11th in the AFC, respectively, in rushing. It could get ugly for the Steelers. Head coach Mike Tomlin was not happy with Eason's run-stopping ability earlier this season.
Steelers RB Willie Parker vs. Jaguars run defense
Parker leads the AFC in rushing with 1,217 yards - seven games of 102 or more - and seems a shoo-in for Pro Bowl honors when the announcement comes out next week. The Jaguars feel Taylor is just as worthy as Parker, giving the Jags' front seven plenty of incentive to keep Parker in check. Jacksonville has had success in stopping Pittsburgh's running game. The Jaguars have held the Steelers to 26, 73 and 120 yards rushing in games each of the last three years. They have held Pittsburgh backs to a 3.7-yard average and no touchdowns on the ground during those three games. Parker has had little success in those games as well, with 87 total yards on 33 carries and no touchdowns in three games. However, Parker, coming off a 124-yard effort against the Patriots, goes up against a Jaguars defense that will be without 6-foot-6, 310-pound defensive tackle Marcus Stroud, a three-time Pro Bowler put on Injured Reserve Wednesday with an ankle injury. Stroud had teamed with 6-foot-7, 335-pound defensive tackle John Henderson to give the Jaguars one of the top tackle tandems in the NFL. Now, Grady Jackson (6-foot-2, 345 pounds) will get more playing time on the Jaguars' defensive line, but he may not be able to keep up with Parker's quickness.
Steelers WR Hines Ward vs. Jaguars CB Rashean Mathis
It will likely be two Pro Bowl players going at each other for much of the day. Ward has not enjoyed great success against the Jaguars like he has against other clubs. In 11 games versus Jacksonville, he has been held to four catches or fewer on eight occasions and has gained more than 60 yards receiving just three times. Three is the same number of touchdowns he has scored in the 11 meetings. Mathis has not played as well as he did last year, when he earned Pro Bowl honors. He has just one interception this year after a team-record eight picks in 2006. He's still a solid cover corner and is a sure tackler.
Seahawks QB Matt Hasselbeck vs. Panthers pass defense
Hasselbeck is closing in on a career-best season throwing the football. He is in the NFL's top eight in attempts (469), completions (292), yards (3,346), touchdown passes (24) and quarterback rating (91.9). He is on the verge of setting franchise records for a season in attempts, completions and yardage. Last week, he posted a 131.6 quarterback rating in the 42-21 division clincher against the Arizona Cardinals. He completed touchdown passes to four different receivers - Bobby Engram, Nate Burleson, Deion Branch and tight end Marcus Pollard. Hasselbeck has flourished since the move by Seahawks head coach Mike Holmgren to transition the offense from run-based with running back Shaun Alexander to pass-based.
Seahawks OT Sean Locklear vs. Panthers DE Julius Peppers
Peppers has been slumping all season and has only three sacks. However, his athleticism makes him dangerous at any moment. Seattle's style of play will make it difficult for Peppers to come up with a lot of sacks because the Seahawks don't use long drops and get rid of the ball quickly. Locklear has been solid most of the season, and the Seahawks will give him some help in blocking Peppers.
Panthers QB Vinny Testaverde vs. Seahawks pass defense
The Seahawks defense has been gaining steam consistently as the season has progressed, and it will be interesting to see how the aging Testaverde will handle it. Seahawks defensive end Patrick Kerney is the first player in nearly two decades to have a trio of three-sack games within a four-week span, and he leads the NFL with 13.5 sacks. Cornerback Marcus Trufant had three interceptions last week in the win over Arizona - he's second in the NFL with seven picks. It's very likely the Panthers will work hard at trying to establish the ground game with running back DeShaun Foster, who lost his fifth fumble of the season last week. Still, it will come down to Testaverde, unless for some reason head coach John Fox opts to go with untested rookie quarterback Matt Moore.
Panthers WR Steve Smith vs. Seahawks CB Marcus Trufant
Smith has gone seven games without a touchdown, and his numbers have suffered as the team has had revolving quarterbacks. However, he remains the one big-play threat on this offense, and he's capable of breaking out at any time. Seattle has experience in stopping Smith. In the NFC Championship, after the 2005 season, the Seahawks used a cornerback, linebacker and safety on Smith in most passing situations. Trufant should get plenty of help in covering Smith because the Panthers have no other legitimate offensive weapons.
Ravens QB Kyle Boller vs. Dolphins pass defense
Boller has not played well on the road and hasn't won a road start since 2004. This season, he has thrown two touchdown passes and one interception on the road, compiling a 72.6 quarterback rating. Boller regressed last Sunday, throwing three interceptions against the Colts. The Dolphins rank third in the NFL in pass defense. However, Miami has only two interceptions in its past two games. Boller has been hurt by the fact that tight end Todd Heap (hamstring) and receiver Demetrius Williams (ankle) have both been injured.
Ravens RB Willis McGahee vs. Dolphins run defense
McGahee should be a near lock for 100 yards against the Dolphins for a couple of reasons. First, he is coming off a season-worst performance, gaining 45 yards on 17 carries last Sunday. Second, he is going against a Miami run defense that ranks last in the NFL (155.4 yards per game). Some of that is without the front line being battered and bruised, which is presently the case. Every starting defensive lineman is nursing some nagging injury that usually has them wearing down by the second half of the game. To make matters worse, linebacker Zach Thomas (migraines) has gone on Injured Reserve. The two key run-stopping linebackers - Channing Crowder (foot) and Joey Porter (shoulder) - are also nursing injuries that could hinder their play or lead to them to be held out of Sunday's game. The Dolphins defense is allowing opponents to gain 4.4 yards per carry and has allowed 16 rushing touchdowns. The Dolphins have given up 100 yards to six different running backs this season. Oddly, none of them have scored a touchdown in those games. McGahee had his streak of seven straight games with a touchdown end last Sunday. He needs 155 rushing yards to beat his single-season career high of 1,247 yards from 2005. He's also five receptions shy of the Ravens' season record for catches by a running back. It's quite possible that McGahee will set one of those marks this Sunday in his homecoming to Miami. In six games against the Dolphins, McGahee has toted the ball 160 times for 539 yards and has 13 runs of 10-plus yards, but he has only scored one touchdown.
Dolphins QB Cleo Lemon vs. Ravens pass defense
The Ravens won't be at full strength again Sunday, but they'll be much more prepared than they were against Colts quarterback Peyton Manning, who had four touchdown passes against them. The Ravens already know that cornerback Chris McAlister (knee) won't be playing; the other starting cornerback, Samari Rolle (shoulder), could be out, too. That means Corey Ivy, Derrick Martin and David Pittman could see a majority of the time at cornerback. The key will be keeping Lemon in the pocket. The Ravens know he can make plays with his legs and can throw the ball deep. Although the Dolphins haven't scored on a touchdown pass in any of their last five games, this is their chance: The Ravens' injury-depleted secondary has allowed 22 touchdown passes, which is tied for fifth most in the NFL. Look for Lemon to air it out to wide receivers Derek Hagan and rookie Ted Ginn Jr. The Dolphins' running game will be hard-pressed to pick up yardage against linebacker Ray Lewis and the Ravens' stingy run defense, which is ranked third in the NFL, so the Dolphins should rely heavily on the pass. Hagan is coming off a career-best performance against the Buffalo Bills, and Ginn's biggest plays as a receiver have come with Lemon behind center. Lemon is also a threat running with the ball. He has scored four rushing touchdowns. Look for the Dolphins to move the pocket on rollouts, buying Lemon some time against Baltimore's pressure, which has generated 25 sacks this season.
Packers RB Ryan Grant vs. Rams run defense
Grant has come from nowhere to prove he's a legitimate starting back in the NFL, with 717 yards rushing in the past seven games. The advantage he'll have Sunday is the Packers still are a pass-first team, and St. Louis will likely be game planning more to stop quarterback Brett Favre and his deep receiving corps than Grant. Look for Grant to top the 100-yard mark for the fifth time in his past eight games.
Rams RB Steven Jackson vs. Packers run defense
Jackson is one of the NFL's best running backs even though he ranks only 20th in the NFL in rushing - he missed some time because of injuries. However, the Packers, as they were last week in holding Oakland Raiders running back Justin Fargas to 57 yards on 15 carries, will be game planning to stop him. Jackson is better than Fargas and probably will have a bigger day, but look for the Packers to keep him relatively in check, especially if starting quarterback Marc Bulger (concussion) can't play because of concussion symptoms.
Rams WRs Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce vs. Packers CBs Al Harris and Charles Woodson
Harris and Woodson like to play the kind of aggressive, bump-and-run coverage that has given Holt and Bruce problems in the past. For the Rams to have any chance to win, Holt and Bruce must have productive games. Bruce went without a catch last week in Cincinnati with Brock Berlin at quarterback. Despite his intense style, Harris has given up a lot of big plays in recent weeks. There could be opportunities for St. Louis, provided the Rams can pass block.
Rams OT Brandon Gorin vs. Packers DE Aaron Kampman
Gorin was out of a job until the Rams signed him Sept. 12, and he has started five games because of injuries on the offensive line. Meanwhile, Kampman appears to be headed to his second Pro Bowl, ranking fifth in the NFC with 11 sacks. Kampman has a knack for exploiting lesser pass blockers, so Gorin and the Rams should beware. It wouldn't be surprising to see tight end Randy McMichael kept in on passing downs to help against Kampman. However, the Rams can't pay too much attention to Kampman. The Packers have additional pass-rushing threats in right defensive end Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila (9.5 sacks) and defensive tackle Corey Williams (seven sacks).
Cardinals WR Larry Fitzgerald vs. Saints CB Mike McKenzie
Fitzgerald (groin) isn't 100 percent, and yet he still had six catches, 79 yards and one touchdown against Seattle last week. His groin is only improving, and the fact that the Cards will be playing in a climate-controlled dome rather than freezing temperatures should help. McKenzie is a solid corner, and since the rest of the Saints secondary has struggled, he may be able to hold down Fitzgerald's numbers if quarterback Kurt Warner can find better options - like receiver Jerheme Urban, who went for more than 100 yards last week. Last week against the Atlanta Falcons, the Saints designated McKenzie to shadow the Falcons' best receiver, Roddy White, a concession the team made for the first time. Ordinarily, McKenzie (left) and cornerback Jason David (right) each stayed on one side of the field. In the Atlanta game, White caught just three passes, but they went for 75 yards. He also had a touchdown. It's likely the Saints will repeat this strategy against Fitzgerald, who leads all NFC receivers with 81 catches, seven for touchdowns. The Saints don't want to take the chance that Fitzgerald will light up David the way most receivers have this season. David has allowed nine touchdowns in 10 games. McKenzie, meanwhile, is having his best season; He has intercepted three passes and has returned two for touchdowns.
Saints WR Marques Colston vs. Cardinals CBs Roderick Hood or Antrel Rolle
Hood (5-foot-11) has also returned two of his four picks this season for scores. However, he'll be giving up five inches to the 6-foot-4 Colston, who last week against the Falcons caught nine passes for 92 yards and two touchdowns. Colston leads the Saints with 79 catches, just two behind the NFC-leading Fitzgerald, and he's making a case for a Pro Bowl berth as well. Colston is a big target that sneaks underneath deep zone coverage and takes a pounding over the middle, where many of his receptions this season have come. Arizona has the option of going with the 6-foot Rolle on Colston. Rolle had three interceptions this season as well, and two of those have gone back for scores. Either way, it's an interesting matchup.
Saints offensive line vs. Cardinals DT Darnell Dockett
Dockett has been prevented from making plays recently, mostly because teams are double teaming him, something that worsened after defensive end Bertrand Berry (triceps) was injured. Dockett has been stuck at eight sacks for a few games. If the Saints' trio of offensive guard Jahri Evans, offensive guard Jamar Nesbit and center Jeff Faine can control Dockett, quarterback Drew Brees could be on his way to a big day.
Titans WR Justin Gage vs. Chiefs CB Ty Law
Gage has been quarterback Vince Young's favorite target this season, and he's averaging 66 receiving yards in the last five games. His 13.2 yards-per-catch average isn't great, but it's the best on the Titans. Law has given up some big plays this season and has just two interceptions, but he's a physical corner that could push Gage off his routes.
Chiefs RB Kolby Smith vs. Titans run defense
Smith's (ankle) carries should be diminished against Tennessee because of a sore ankle. He will share the load to an extent with running back Gilbert Harris. Smith's chances for being effective are diminished because he plays behind a terrible offensive line. The matchup against the Titans, who feature dominant defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth, is not a good one for the Chiefs. Look for Haynesworth and the Titans to dominate the line of scrimmage and make yards few and far between for Smith.
Chiefs WR Dwayne Bowe vs. Titans CB Cortland Finnegan
Bowe leads all rookies with 821 receiving yards and 56 receptions, and he seems to be improving each week. He has good chemistry with quarterback Brodie Croyle, and he has been effective on high balls. Finnegan has been Tennessee's best cover corner this season. He's physical and has held his own against bigger receivers. The Chiefs have had troubles protecting Croyle, though, and that has affected Bowe's numbers in recent games. He hasn't had more than five catches, 63 yards or a touchdown in their last three games. Croyle simply hasn't had time to get the ball down the field. That doesn't figure to change against the Titans, who will come after Croyle with a strong pass rush. Anything Bowe gets will likely come on shorter patterns that he has to turn into long gains by breaking a tackle or two or making a defender miss.
Bills RB Marshawn Lynch vs. Browns run defense
The Browns have given up eight individual 100-yard rushing performances in 12 games this season. Their front seven is the weakness of the team. Linebacker D'Well Jackson is small, and he isn't helped by the fact that the defensive linemen in front of him are not stout versus the run. The Browns have cut 19 yards off their average rushing yards allowed (149.5 to 130.5) since Week 7, but they still rank 28th in the league. They've battled injuries across the line, but they are in their best health in weeks. The Browns will try to take away Lynch and force rookie quarterback Trent Edwards to beat them with the pass, but Lynch is still a good bet for a solid game. Look for the Bills to try to play ball control. The Ravens' Willis McGahee went 14 carries for 104 yards and 21 rushes for 102 yards in two games versus the Browns. Expect a similar game for Lynch. The Bills will spell him with running back Fred Jackson, but look for the split to be about 65-35 in favor of Lynch. Lynch returned last week from an ankle injury to rush 23 times for 107 yards against the Dolphins. In 10 games, he has 858 yards rushing, a 3.9-yard average and six scores.
Browns TE Kellen Winslow vs. Bills SS Donte Whitner
Winslow has just seven catches for 69 yard yards since a 10-catch, 107-yard effort versus Houston in Week 12. The Cardinals and Jets made it their No. 1 priority to stop him by assigning a linebacker to jam him at the line, with a safety over the top. This opens up the field for receiver Braylon Edwards and clears the running game for running back Jamal Lewis. The Browns' pass offense is a bad matchup for the Bills because of two injuries to the Bills' secondary. The Bills lost slot corner Kiwaukee Thomas (groin) a month ago. They lost free safety George Wilson (ribs) last week. Now Whitner is their best cover man in the slot. As a result, the Bills will have a choice to make with Whitner, who likes to play near the line to stop the run. When he's near the line, they don't have a second safety to play deep with Jim Leonhard (who takes Wilson's place). That's when the Browns can go to Edwards. When Whitner moves to the back end in a safety role, Winslow should clean up. Winslow is having a big year, with 69 catches for 943 yards, a 13.7-yard average and five touchdowns. Whitner, the eighth overall pick in 2006, had one interception as a rookie and none this year, but he has 78 tackles. He's a Cleveland native and said he will have 65-100 ticket requests.
Falcons WR Roddy White vs. Buccaneers CB Ronde Barber
Barber and the Bucs have been one of the few teams to slow down White during his breakout season. He was held to four catches for 28 yards in Week 11. Quarterback Byron Leftwich was making his first start and was under siege from a fierce pass rush that helped Barber's coverage. This time, it should be quarterback Chris Redman. If the Falcons' offensive line plays an inspired game and slows down the rush, White may have some time to get open on Barber and make some plays down the field.
Buccaneers WR Joey Galloway vs. Falcons CB DeAngelo Hall
Hall has tremendous speed and coverage skills, but he's still not in Galloway's class. The key for the Falcons will be to bump Galloway at or near the line and disrupt his timing. That should force the Bucs to look to other options in the passing game. If Galloway can beat the jam, though, he could be in for a big day. Galloway is just 22 yards away from posting his third consecutive 1,000-yard receiving season for the Bucs. In the previous meeting, Galloway put a move on Hall that sent him shaking, and Galloway slipped down field with ease. Hall jumped a short route, and that left Galloway open for a 44-yard touchdown that started the 31-7 rout. Hall hasn't forgotten and wants to atone for that error.
Buccaneers RB Earnest Graham vs. Falcons LB Keith Brooking
The Bucs will try to take advantage of a beat up and inexperienced Falcons defensive front by running Graham, who has established himself, between the tackles. He ran for 102 yards against the Falcons in the teams' first meeting. With the Bucs quarterback Jeff Garcia (back) coming back from a back injury, Graham will have to provide another solid outing. The job of stopping Graham will fall mostly to the Brooking, because the Bucs will probably try to game plan against strongside linebacker Michael Boley. Brooking is a strong playmaker, but Graham has good vision, good power and enough quickness and speed to make big yards against him. Brooking will be challenged to slow down Graham.
Colts WR Reggie Wayne vs. Raiders CB Stanford Routt
Wayne is the most explosive receiver Oakland has faced this year; he has 78 receptions for 1,211 yards and nine touchdowns. Any time he lines up on the right side, he'll get chances at single coverage from Routt. Teams habitually avoid right cornerback Nnamdi Asomughi, and Routt has paid the price - most recently with an 80-yard reception surrendered to wide receiver Greg Jennings of Green Bay. Manning will look to both Wayne and wideout Anthony Gonzalez when they're isolated on Routt or cornerback Fabian Washington.
Raiders RB Justin Fargas vs. Colts run defense
Fargas (ribs) took a shot to the ribs last week but insists he's playing this week. The Raiders are fifth in the NFL in rushing at 131.2 yards per game. It's the one bright spot in what has been an offensive struggle. Last week, the Colts held Baltimore's Willis McGahee to a season-low 45 yards on 17 carries. The Colts are allowing 107.5 yards rushing per game, which ranks 17th in the NFL. The Colts will be thin on the defensive line due to injuries, so don't be surprised if the Raiders pass first to set up the run, then commit to running on the Colts' young defenders. The Colts will likely cheat with strong safety Bob Sanders up in the box, which they have done to stuff other rushing attacks, but it's not a fool-proof plan. Jacksonville (168 yards rushing in the teams' second meeting) and Denver (223 yards) had monster games rushing the ball on the Colts. Still, considering the Colts were 32nd in run defense last year, they're much better this year. Last week was the fifth time the Colts' run defenders have held a team under 100 yards rushing this season.
Raiders WR Jerry Porter vs. Colts CBs Kelvin Hayden and Marlin Jackson
Porter has three touchdown catches in his last two games, including a 25-yard catch against Packers corner Al Harris last week that he turned from an interception into a touchdown. With wideout Ronald Curry having trouble with dropped passes of late, Porter has begun to get more looks regardless of the corner. Hayden and Jackson, playing in the Tampa 2 zone, will look to keep Porter in front of them and minimize yards after the catch.
Raiders offensive line vs. Colts defensive line
The Raiders have allowed 33 sacks and can't keep a quarterback healthy. The Colts will be without their top three sackers in defensive linemen Dwight Freeney (foot), Robert Mathis (knees) and Raheem Brock (ribs). The Colts had young guys come through at Baltimore. Rookie defensive tackle Quinn Pitcock had his first two sacks, undrafted rookie defensive end Jeff Charleston had his first one, and fifth-year defensive tackle Dan Klecko got his first one in two seasons with the Colts. That said, the Colts have 27 sacks, which is tied for 18th in the league, so it's not like they are doing real well in that category. It goes without saying that when the Colts needed the pressure on the pocket, in the fourth quarter against New England, it wasn't there. That was when Freeney and Mathis were playing. The Colts blew a 20-10 lead and lost 24-20 to the unbeaten Patriots.
Cowboys WR Terrell Owens vs. Eagles CBs Lito Sheppard and Sheldon Brown
Owens caught 10 passes for 174 yards and a clinching touchdown in the teams' earlier meeting this season. The Cowboys moved him around so the Eagles could not get a lock on where he was going or routes he was running. That was the worst game of the season for an Eagles defense that has played reasonably well. However, the Eagles are ranked 18th against the pass, partly because of lingering injury situations for cornerback Lito Sheppard (knee) and free safety Brian Dawkins (back). Sheppard is not currently listed on the injury report, but he has struggled the past two weeks. He hinted Wednesday that he has a leg problem other than the MCL sprain he suffered in the season opener and has tweaked since. Owens called Sheppard earlier this week to advise him that T.O. planned to bring his "A" game, something Sheppard said he had pretty much figured would be the case. Last week the Detroit Lions limited Owens to three catches and a season-low 21 yards. Owens' feelings toward the Eagles have not changed, and he would love to have a big game versus them. Coming off the first game in a long time in which he was irrelevant, Owens will be ready for Sunday.
Eagles RB Brian Westbrook vs. Cowboys run defense
Westbrook is the most dangerous player the Cowboys will see Sunday. If he is slowed, the Eagles are slowed. In 11 games versus Dallas, he has averaged 5.4 yards per touch and 85.6 total yards per game. In the teams' last meeting, Westbrook tied a team record by catching 14 passes for 90 yards, although much of that came with the game out of reach. He ran 16 times for just 65 yards, which was his third lowest total of the season. His 16 carries were his second lowest total of the season. Dallas ranks fourth against the rush. After seeing Detroit run the ball on them last week, Bradie James and the other linebackers need to have a better game versus Westbrook. In his last Texas Stadium visit, Westbrook had 122 yards on 26 carries.
Chargers QB Philip Rivers or QB Billy Volek vs. Lions pass defense
Rivers (knee) will be severely bummed if his bum left knee keeps him from playing against a Detroit pass defense that has been horrible. Quarterbacks have completed nearly 71 percent of their passes against the Lions, who have allowed 26 touchdown passes, second most in the NFL. If Rivers (17 touchdown passes, 15 interceptions) can't play, Volek will get the call. If Volek plays, avoiding mistakes becomes important; Detroit has been opportunistic with 33 takeaways, second best in the league. Ten different Lions have intercepted passes this season.
Chargers RB LaDainian Tomlinson vs. Lions run defense
The Lions have had trouble tackling much lesser players than last year's NFL MVP. They cannot afford to struggle against a player this dangerous. They must stay aggressive but also stay fundamentally sound. They cannot be tentative and break down too early, as they did in a futile effort against Vikings running back Adrian Peterson two games ago. After an extremely slow start, Tomlinson has hit his stride and is the NFL's third leading rusher, with 1,195 yards. He also leads the league in rushing touchdowns (12), and only New England's Randy Moss (19) has scored more than Tomlinson's total 14 touchdowns. With Rivers ailing and possibly missing the contest, the Lions might expect to see a heavy dose of Tomlinson. Detroit is middle-of-the-pack in terms of defending the run and needs defensive tackle Shaun Rogers (knee) to play at a high level to slow Tomlinson. Rogers' knee woes often leave him gimping during a game. Weakside linebacker Ernie Sims (119 tackles) finds ways to get to the ball, even when teams run to strongside linebacker Boss Bailey's side.
Chargers TE Antonio Gates vs. Lions pass defense
Gates is one of the top tight ends in the NFL. The Lions allowed Dallas tight end Jason Witten to catch 15 passes for 138 yards and a touchdown this past Sunday. The Lions played a lot of Cover 2 against the Cowboys to limit star wide receiver Terrell Owens. That opened up things for Witten, and the Lions didn't adjust - at least not well enough. The Lions might key on Gates this time, leaving things open for the Chargers' wideouts, none of whom is the threat Owens is.
Lions C Dominic Raiola vs. Chargers NT Jamal Williams
Raiola is 6-foot-1, 295 pounds. Williams is 6-foot-3, 348 pounds and has been to two Pro Bowls. The interior of the Lions' offensive line played well Sunday against the Cowboys' 3-4 defense; the Lions rushed for 152 yards. Now they face the Chargers' 3-4 defense. It's going to be even tougher. Raiola isn't going to be able to handle Williams all by himself. Offensive guards Edwin Mulitalo and Stephen Peterman will have to help.
Redskins QB Todd Collins vs. Giants DE Osi Umenyiora
Collins, the Redskins' 36-year-old backup playing in place of injured quarterback Jason Campbell (knee), did a credible job in taking over against the Chicago Bears last week. Collins was 15-for-20 for 224 yards and two touchdowns. If nothing else, he has experience, which means he has seen plenty of defenses in 14 years of mostly reserve duty. There should be plenty of pressure from Umenyiora, who appears headed for the Pro Bowl with 12 sacks, just 1.5 sacks fewer than league leader Patrick Kerney (Seahawks).
Redskins OT Todd Wade vs. Giants DE Michael Strahan
Despite missing all of training camp in a contract dispute, Strahan has had a solid season, recording 37 tackles, 31 quarterback hits and nine sacks. He still commands the occasional double team. He should have the advantage over Wade (knee) at right tackle. Wade won't be 100 percent, but he's probably a better option than undrafted rookie free-agent offensive lineman Stephon Heyer, who started last week for the injured Wade. Heyer struggles with his balance and technique in pass protection. As in the teams' first meeting, expect the Redskins to use tight ends Chris Cooley and Todd Yoder as an extra blocker against Strahan. In Week 3, Strahan was held in check (two tackles, one quarterback hit).
Giants RB Brandon Jacobs vs. Redskins run defense
This year, the Redskins have recovered eight fumbles, which means Jacobs (hamstring) needs to keep a tighter grasp on the ball. He lost two fumbles against the Eagles, one on the Philadelphia 5-yard line in the closing minutes, and he has four lost fumbles in eight games. He is expected to start a second straight game despite a sore hamstring, but he did a credible job with 70 yards on 22 carries last week despite that. The Redskins have the sixth best run defense in the league; they're allowing 94.8 ground yards per game.
Giants WR Plaxico Burress vs. Redskins CBs Shawn Springs and Fred Smoot
Burress (knee, ankle) made five catches for 86 yards and the game-winning 33-yard touchdown catch in the teams' first game. Despite sitting out practice for the 11th week with a sprained knee and ankle, he said he is starting to feel better; his play on the field has shown it. He leads the Giants in catches (62), yards (900) and touchdowns (10). He turned three slants into two long gainers and a touchdown in Philadelphia. He has reinstated the big play into the Giants offense. It's not a deep-threat variety but rather a quick acceleration through the holes in the secondary on intermediate passes. Springs (back) will have to be wary of that if he doesn't want to get burned like Eagles corner Sheldon Brown last week. Playing with a bad back against the Bears, he had his first two interceptions of the year, the first of which he returned 53 yards to set up the first touchdown. Smoot is without an interception. The key for both players against Burress is to be solid tacklers. The Redskins brought back much of their pressure packages against the Bears, leaving Smoot and Springs in man coverage with no safety help.
Bears QB Kyle Orton vs. Vikings SS Darren Sharper
Orton returns to the playing field for the first time in two seasons, and it's at the scene of his last start. With no running game to speak of, the Bears will have to rely on the pass to move the ball. That means the Vikings will be able to pin back their ears and come after Orton. He will have to show he has gotten better at reading coverages since his rookie season and move quickly from his primary target to other options. The veteran Sharper will be the man to watch. He has made a career in the division by feasting on Bears quarterbacks and could be due for a big play here if Orton is not careful.
Bears TE Desmond Clark vs. Vikings LB Chad Greenway
Playing in his first NFL season after missing 2006 because of a knee injury, Greenway has received on-the-job training this year and, not surprisingly, has made big strides since September. Nonetheless, it would not be surprising if the Bears try to get the 6-foot-3, 249-pound Clark (41 receptions, three touchdowns) matched up against Greenway in order to give new starter Orton an option in the short passing game.
Vikings RBs Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor vs. Bears run defense
Peterson and Taylor rolled through the Bears for 307 yards in their first meeting back in October at Soldier Field, with missed tackles and gaping holes all over the place. Peterson did the bulk of his damage running through huge backside holes; he hit cutback lanes and was gone. The Bears, who are thin out at defensive tackle, must be stouter at the point of attack so their linebackers can make some plays. Look for the Vikings to stick to the left side, behind left tackle Bryant McKinnie and left guard Steve Hutchinson. It might be a victory for Chicago's defense if it can limit the Vikings to 175 rushing yards.
Vikings FB Tony Richardson vs. Bears LB Brian Urlacher
The Vikings are coming off one of their worst rushing efforts of the season and will be looking to re-establish the NFL's top-ranked running game against a Chicago run defense that is 24th in the NFL this season. Richardson will play a pivotal role in blocking Urlacher in order to open up holes for Taylor and Peterson, who had a career-worst three-yard, 14-carry performance against the 49ers Sunday. The 49ers had success against the Vikings - the exception being an 84-yard touchdown run by Taylor - by blitzing the cornerbacks in order to contain the run. The Bears' personnel might not be as suited to go this route.
Vikings OT Ryan Cook vs. Bears DE Adewale Ogunleye
Cook has matured into a serviceable right tackle this season and can no longer be viewed as a liability on a weekly basis. That being said, the former college center will have his hands full protecting quarterback Tarvaris Jackson Monday night. Ogunleye is a top-notch pass rusher and has nine sacks this season, meaning Cook is going to have to be on top of his game. It's likely Cook also will get some help from a tight end throughout the game.
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