Gagne Joins Crowded Brewers Bullpen

December 11, 2007 @ 14:49:12

By Andrew Stewart
Edited by Tim Heaney

The Milwaukee Brewers signed relief pitcher Eric Gagne to a one-year, $10 million deal Monday, Dec. 10. The agreement will also include $1 million in performance incentives. This signing seemingly filled the Brew Crew's closer role, but the Brewers built up their bullpen even before Gagne arrived. They acquired relievers Guillermo Mota and Salomon Torres through trade, and brought in David Riske through free agency. They will also keep former closer Derrick Turnbow as the setup man.

With Gagne's recent turbulent performance and the abundance of former closers in setup roles, some controversy could eventually brew in Milwaukee.

Closing Time Once Again

Gagne spent last season with the Texas Rangers and Boston Red Sox. The Brewers are hoping they invested $10 million in the Gagne that pitched for the Rangers last season - not the Gagne who pitched for the Sox. As the Rangers' full-time closer for the first half of 2007, Gagne was near-unstoppable: he converted 16 saves in 17 chances while maintaining a 2.16 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. He also struck out 29 batters in 33.1 innings. But as good as Gagne was in Texas, he was atrocious after he was traded to Boston at the trade deadline. Serving as Boston's setup pitcher, Gagne compiled a 6.75 ERA and 1.88 WHIP, and he failed to convert any of his three save opportunities.

It could be that Gagne only thrives when placed in the closing role, as he seemed to perform much better in save situations last season than non-save situations (despite his struggles in that limited situation in Boston). If that's the case, the Brewers would be wise to keep Gagne from the ninth inning next season. Even so, Gagne brings to Milwaukee an extensive and documented history of injury risk. Over his baseball career, Gagne has undergone two Tommy John surgeries (one in 1997, one in 2005) and has experienced elbow, neck and back problems over the last three seasons. Even in his successful first half of the 2007 season with the Rangers, Gagne still managed to land on the disabled list twice in the short span. When healthy, Gagne has been one of baseball's most dominant relievers as he proved in 2003 when he won the National League Cy Young Award. But because of his disastrous campaign with the Red Sox and his history of trips to the disabled list, fantasy owners should not risk a high-round selection on Gagne.

Turnbow Looks to Rebound

Before Gagne's arrival in Milwaukee, Turnbow was slotted to reclaim the closer position he held two seasons ago for the Brew Crew. And assuming Gagne is named the starting closer for Milwaukee, Turnbow will likely serve as Gagne's setup man and primary backup. Experienced fantasy owners should know Turnbow's name well as he set the fantasy world on fire in 2005 and in the first half of 2006. In 2005, Turnbow posted fantastic numbers with 39 saves, a 1.74 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP while recording 64 strikeouts in 67.1 innings. His stats began to slip in the first half of 2006, but still was a reliable fantasy closer; he posted a pedestrian 4.74 ERA and 1.39 WHIP in the first half of 2006, but he still managed to record 23 saves and 46 strikeouts in 38 innings. However, the second half of 2006 was disastrous for Turnbow, and he hasn't been the same pitcher since. Turnbow still has the full support of Brewers manager Ned Yost, but even Yost admitted Turnbow needs to keep his walks down. Turnbow has 155 walks in 251.1 career innings.

If Turnbow does win the closer job in Milwaukee, or if he takes over at some point next season, fantasy owners would be advised to steer clear. Turnbow's stats in 2007 (4.63 ERA, 1.32 WHIP) do not suggest he has the ability to turn around his once-promising career and become a reliable fantasy closer again. If you want to bank on Gagne struggling, Turnbow could be picked up in the last two rounds if you have already filled your needs.

Seventh-Inning Slew

Three pitchers will vie for the seventh-inning gig. Torres, who served as the full-time closer for the Pittsburgh Pirates for the part of last season, is a battle-worn veteran whose best years seem to be behind him. Torres had a very good string of years for the Pirates from 2004 to 2006, where he pitched more than 90 innings every season and posted a 2.89 ERA in that span. However, Torres has still seen many of his stats decline in the last few seasons, including ERA, opponent's batting average, opponent's slugging percentage and opponent's on-base percentage.

The Brewers acquired Mota when they traded catcher Johnny Estrada to the New York Mets. Mota had a 5.76 ERA in 59 innings pitched during a 2007 season which was cut short by a 50-game suspension for violating the MLB's Drug Policy. After the Mets picked him up in August 2006 from waivers, Mota thrived while posting a 1.00 ERA in 18 innings of work.

Riske has been a very reliable middle reliever for many teams in his eight seasons of major league service. Riske hasn't posted a season ERA of more than 3.89 since 2002 - his first full season in the majors. Over the course of his career, he has recorded 8.63 strikeouts per nine innings, though he has seen those numbers decline since 2002. One knock against Riske is that he has never served as a full-time closer before, though he did save four games in eight opportunities last season for the Kansas City Royals.

Fantasy Summary

The Brewers are willing to go with Gagne, but with his recent body of work, his stronghold on the job is far from a guarantee. Nevertheless, he is worth consideration in the middle rounds of fantasy drafts as a No. 2 closer in 2008, assuming he is named the Brewers' full-time closer. Turnbow, Torres and Mota could be worth looking at in extremely deep drafts. It's safe to say the Brewers want Gagne to close - for now. Either way, the Brewers bullpen will certainly be one of the more featured spots in KFFL's Closer Hot Seat section for the 2008 season.

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Andrew Stewart
Andrew Stewart has been a Hot off the Wire Analyst for KFFL since 2007.

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