Fantasy Football and NFL News, Rumors and Injury Updates

Strong Plays, Weak Plays - Week 14

December 7, 2007 @ 02:49:22

By Richard Garcia
Edited by Herija C. Green

Welcome to another edition of KFFL's "Strong Plays, Weak Plays" feature. Here, we'll identify strong matchups of interest that you can exploit as well as determine a few weak matchups in which you might want to consider benching your normal starter in favor of a backup. Our intention is not to tell you the obvious, such as "Start LaDainian Tomlinson!" or "Start Peyton Manning!" Instead, it is to point out some matchups involving players who aren't considered fantasy stars. Of course, we'll sometimes highlight a top fantasy player's matchup if it is an especially noteworthy strong or weak play.

Important, Please Read! Remember, just because a player has a strong-play matchup does not mean that it is an automatic endorsement as a starter. It does provide you with some valuable information to make decisions, though. As an example, some players with the "Strong Play" tag may still be a No. 4 fantasy wideout and shouldn't be started ahead of your normal starters. He just may have greater potential than normal but not enough to warrant a definite benching of someone else for him. Conversely, if a player is on the "Weak Play" list, he may not be an automatic bench, either. A stud won't have an easy matchup every week. However, he's a stud because he can overcome the weak-play situation.

Quarterbacks - Strong Plays

Matt Hasselbeck, Seattle Seahawks vs. Arizona Cardinals

Matchup	Games	Pass Yards/G	Pass TDs/G	INTs/G	Rush Yards/G	Rush TD/G
Hasselbeck	4	262.8	1.75	0.75	5.8	0.00
Cardinals vs. Pos.	4	296.2	2.00	2.00	4.8	0.00

The Seahawks offense hasn't skipped a beat since becoming a pass-first offense. Hasselbeck has thrown for two or more touchdowns in six of his last seven games and has made 34 or more pass attempts in each game since Week 6. The return of running back Shaun Alexander can only add another element to the offense and if the team can establish the run, it should open up more scoring opportunities for Hasselbeck.

The Cardinals defense has been allowing points, while their fantasy value has been the interception. They are currently tied for the league lead in defensive touchdowns scored (0.8) over the last month, most of which have come after an interception. Their defense is among the leaders in passing yards and touchdowns allowed to the position over the last month. Hasselbeck should be played as a solid No. 1 passing option.

Running Backs - Strong Plays

Ryan Grant, Green Bay Packers vs. Oakland Raiders

Matchup	Games	Rush Yards/G	Rush TD/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TDs/G
Grant	4	100.5	1.00	3.25	14.2	0.00
Raiders vs. Pos.	4	123.0	2.00	4.00	28.8	0.00

Grant is coming off a solid game where he posted 94 yards rushing and scoring on two occasions. He is now averaging more than 100 yards per game with four touchdowns over his last four games. Favre (shoulder, elbow) is expected to start, and though he is a little banged up, the team could look to Grant more to alleviate pressure from the quarterback position.

He faces a dismal Raiders rush defense, who have allowed a league-worst eight total touchdowns in the last month. The team is also yielding 123 rushing yards per contest, which is good for 30th in the NFL. Grant should be played as a quality No. 1 back.

Fred Jackson, Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins

Matchup	Games	Rush Yards/G	Rush TD/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TDs/G
Jackson	3	38.3	0.00	3.67	41.7	0.00
Dolphins vs. Pos.	4	113.8	1.25	3.00	32.0	0.00

Jackson made an impressive debut as the team's starting running back last week, totaling 151 yards on 20 touches. Running back Marshawn Lynch (ankle) is expected to return to the lineup this week, which takes away from the value that Jackson created heading into this week's matchup. The Bills may look to split carries between the two, if Lynch is able to be effective after suffering a high-ankle sprain in Week 10.

The Dolphins have been less than stellar against opposing running backs. They allowed 163 rushing yards and three touchdowns to the position last week against the New York Jets. Jackson has a strong matchup, but expectations should be tempered a bit with the possible return of Lynch. Play Jackson as a No. 3 option in fantasy lineups this week.

Wide Receivers - Strong Plays

Sidney Rice, Minnesota Vikings at San Francisco 49ers

Matchup	Games	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TDs/G
Rice	3	3.33	51.0	0.67
49ers vs. Pos.	4	16.25	202.8	1.00

The Vikings offense has seen their passing game start to be productive in their last two games. Rice has turned into a prime target during that time, catching five passes for 53 last week and scoring in his second consecutive game. The offense has been hitting on all cylinders during that time scoring 59 points in their last two.

The 49ers defense has been far from good when it comes to covering opposing wideouts in the last month. They are tied for second-worst in the league in receiving yards allowed during that time. Rice has an extremely favorable matchup and should be played with confidence as a moderate No. 1 receiving option.

Chris Henry, Cincinnati Bengals vs. St. Louis Rams

Matchup	Games	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TDs/G
Henry	4	4.25	63.0	0.25
Rams vs. Pos.	4	15.75	202.8	0.75

After serving an eight-game suspension, Henry returned to have back-to-back successful games, but in his last two contests he has struggled, including making just two receptions last week for 31 yards. This week could turn his fortunes around, as he faces a team that is currently second-worst in receiving yards allowed to the position in the past month.

While the Rams defense has been stuffing opposing running games, their pass defense hasn't been so good. Their pass defense ranks as the fourth-worst in receptions allowed to the position during that time. His matchup this week dictates that he be played as a solid No. 2 option.

Bobby Engram, Seattle Seahawks vs. Arizona Cardinals

Matchup	Games	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TDs/G
Engram	4	6.00	66.8	0.25
Cardinals vs. Pos.	4	16.00	196.5	1.50

Engram is expected to be the starter on the outside when the team lines up in two-receiver sets. Although that isn't very often, he should continue to be a focal point in the offense, considering the rapport he was able to build with Hasselbeck while wide receiver Deion Branch was out.

This week he has a favorable matchup against the Cardinals, a team who is tied for third-worst in the league over their last four games, allowing 1.5 touchdowns per contest to the position. Engram is a solid play as a No. 2 receiving option.

Tight End - Strong Play

Marcedes Lewis, Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Carolina Panthers

Matchup	Games	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TDs/G
Lewis	4	3.00	27.0	0.50
Panthers vs. Pos.	4	4.00	47.8	1.25

Lewis stands to benefit the most by the team putting tight ends George Wrighster (knee) and Greg Estandia (shoulder) on Injured Reserve last week. In his first game as the undisputed No. 1 tight end option, Lewis managed five receptions for 42 yards and one touchdown.

During the past month, the Panthers lead the league in touchdowns allowed per game to the tight end position. Their defense is also bad enough to land them in the bottom 10 of the league with 47.8 receiving yards allowed to the position. Lewis should be considered a low-tier No. 1 play this week.

Place Kicker - Strong Play

Jason Elam, Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup	Games	FGA/G	FG/G	XPA/G	XP/G	Pts/Game
Elam	4	2.00	2.00	3.25	3.25	9.2
Chiefs vs. Pos.	4	2.50	1.75	2.25	2.25	7.5

Elam has seen his opportunities increase due to some better play from the quarterback position. Since Week 10, he has been the fifth-most productive place kicker in the league, scoring an average of 9.2 actual kicking points per outing.

The Chiefs defense, between Weeks 10 and 13, has yielded 7.5 actual kicking points per contest, which is currently below-average in the league. There are only four teams that are allowing more field goal attempts per contest than the Chiefs during that time. Elam should be considered a solid No. 1 option for a one-week play if your kicker has been letting you down in the past weeks.

Team Defense - Strong Play

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup	Games	Pts/G	Yds/G	Sacks/G	Ints/G	Fum/G
Giants Def.	4	20.0	315.5	3.5	1.00	0.25
Eagles Off.	4	25.5	371.2	1.0	2.50	0.50

In their last heads up battle, the Giants got the best of both the Eagles and quarterback Donovan McNabb (thumb, ankle), sacking him a franchise record 12 times. New York's sack total per game during the last month has been impressive. However, the club's forced turnovers have seen a decline during that time.

The Giants will get another crack at McNabb this week as he is expected to return to the lineup after missing their last two games. The Eagles offense will have their full arsenal of weapons on offense this week, including running back Brian Westbrook and tight end L.J. Smith. The Giants defense rates as a marginal No. 1 unit, but considering McNabb's mobility could be limited they look like a promising unit to roll the dice on this Sunday. Consider it more of a high risk, high reward proposition.

Quarterback - Weak Play

Jay Cutler, Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup	Games	Pass Yards/G	Pass TDs/G	INTs/G	Rush Yards/G	Rush TD/G
Cutler	4	227.0	1.25	1.00	12.2	0.00
Chiefs vs. Pos.	4	170.5	0.50	0.75	4.5	0.00

Cutler hasn't had many games worth noting to this point in the season; recording another forgettable performance last week, completing half of his attempts and turning the ball over three times while failing to throw for a score.

The Chiefs defense has been a positive at times for the team. They are coming off a strong performance last week against another divisional signal caller; San Diego Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers. They held him to a 47.6 completion percentage while sacking him three times and forcing an interception. Culter should be considered a low-tier No. 1 or bench option for Week 14.

Running Backs - Weak Plays

Jerious Norwood, Atlanta Falcons vs. New Orleans Saints

Matchup	Games	Rush Yards/G	Rush TD/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TDs/G
Norwood	3	43.7	0.00	2.00	13.3	0.00
Saints vs. Pos.	4	90.0	0.50	6.75	45.0	0.00

Norwood had one of his best games of the year, and he was able to do it on just eight carries. He rushed for 94 yards while adding three receptions for 21 yards. This has lead to some speculation and whether he is expected to get more touches in the team's final games. Right now, there is no indication that running back Warrick Dunn has lost the handle on the No. 1 job and fantasy owners shouldn't be so quick to expect anything more than the 11 touches he received last week.

The Saints defense might have some extra motivation this week as they try to keep their playoff hopes alive. They've managed to play well against opposing running backs, neglecting at times to cover opposing receivers in the process. Norwood remains the No. 2 option and should be played as no more than a shaky No. 3 or injury replacement.

Justin Fargas, Oakland Raiders at Green Bay Packers

Matchup	Games	Rush Yards/G	Rush TD/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TDs/G
Fargas	4	106.5	0.50	3.00	22.0	0.00
Packers vs. Pos.	4	106.5	0.25	4.00	54.8	0.00

Fargas continues to develop into a legitimate fantasy back, posing back-to-back games with more than 150 total yards and a touchdown. He has been held in check by a couple teams this season, including the Minnesota Vikings (22 carries, 60 yards) and the Chicago Bears (23 carries, 81 yards), making it possible for him to have a bad game.

The Packers defense has given up a decent amount of yardage to the position, but they have remained stout when it comes to allowing opposing backs to score, allowing just one touchdown in the last month. Fargas may have difficulty reaching the end zone, but he remains a low-end No. 1 option.

Wide Receivers - Weak Plays

Justin Gage, Tennessee Titans vs. San Diego Chargers

Matchup	Games	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TDs/G
Gage	4	5.50	79.5	0.50
Chargers vs. Pos.	4	11.00	138.0	0.50

Gage made an attempt to rebuff his weak play tag last week, hauling in five receptions for 64 yards and a touchdown. There is no question that he is their No. 1 option in the passing game, leading the team in receptions with 41 and in receiving yards with 541.

The Chargers defense has been solid of late, taking advantage of a couple strong matchups. Quarterback Vince Young has played better of late, but the second-year pro is averaging just one touchdown pass per game over the last month. Despite his poor matchup, Gage should be considered a No. 1 option due to his more recent success.

Reggie Williams, Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Carolina Panthers

Matchup	Games	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TDs/G
Williams	4	2.00	50.8	0.50
Panthers vs. Pos.	4	12.00	126.0	1.00

Prior to last week's game, Williams managed just four receptions in three games. His saving grace was finding the end zone in two of the three games. He is currently second-to-last on the team in utilizations (four per game) and receptions (two per game) over the last four games.

He plays a Panthers defense that isn't allowing much in terms of yardage to the position, ranking fifth-best in the league, allowing 126 yards per game. Although they have been strong in that department, they have allowed a touchdown to the position in their last four. Williams should be viewed as no better than a No. 3 option.

Bryant Johnson, Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks

Matchup	Games	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TDs/G
Johnson	4	4.00	47.2	0.25
Seahawks vs. Pos.	4	11.00	149.5	0.50

Johnson stands to benefit the most in the passing game if both wide receivers Anquan Boldin (toe) and Larry Fitzgerald (groin) aren't able to play this week. He caught his first touchdown pass of the season last week, while also matching a season-high with six receptions.

The Seahawks offer a tough challenge to the receiving corps of the Cardinals, but if the team finds themselves short-handed this week, Johnson is the likely candidate to make the jump to becoming a focal point in the offense. The statuses of Boldin and Fitzgerald should be watched closely while Johnson should be considered a No. 3 option at best this week.

Tight End - Weak Play

Tony Scheffler, Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup	Games	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TDs/G
Scheffler	4	3.25	42.0	0.25
Chiefs vs. Pos.	4	4.75	44.2	0.25

Scheffler managed to pull out a dud last week after putting up a strong performance in Week 12. It is almost impossible to think that he could put up any worse numbers after making just one reception last week. During the last month, Scheffler has received an average of four looks per game while getting targeted an average of 0.50 times in the red zone.

In his last meeting with the Chiefs, he managed to catch four passes for 31 yards. The Chiefs defense presents a tough matchup to opposing tight ends, allowing just one score to the position in the last month. He should be considered a borderline No. 1 option or possible bench candidate for this week.

Place Kicker - Weak Play

Shayne Graham, Cincinnati Bengals vs. St. Louis Rams

Matchup	Games	FGA/G	FG/G	XPA/G	XP/G	Pts/Game
Graham	4	3.00	2.50	2.25	2.25	9.8
Rams vs. Pos.	4	1.75	1.25	1.25	1.25	5.0

Graham has been productive over the last month, scoring an average of 9.8 actual kicking points per game, with only one other place kicker posting a higher scoring average during that time. He does, however, face a tough matchup this week, making the likelihood for Graham to get opportunities unlikely.

It isn't out of the realm of possibility that the Bengals will be able to put a lot of points on the scoreboard. The Rams have given up an average of five actual kicking points per game to the position, though those numbers could be a bit misleading considering the matchups. View Graham as a borderline No. 1 kicker with a possible benching tag if a better option is available.

Team Defense - Weak Play

Carolina Panthers at Jacksonville Jaguars

Matchup	Games	Pts/G	Yds/G	Sacks/G	Ints/G	Fum/G
Panthers Def.	4	22.5	290.5	2.2	1.25	0.75
Jaguars Off.	4	27.8	350.0	1.25	0.25	0.75

The Panthers defense has been marginal all season, while underachieving at certain positions. The team doesn't make a worthwhile start this week against the Jaguars. Their numbers may look decent, but they are not what fantasy fans have been used to seeing.

The Jaguars offense has been playing well as a whole. Quarterback David Garrard threw his first interception of the year last week, showing how efficient he has been throughout. The team has a couple good running backs that can change the pace and disrupt opposing game plans in the process. The Panthers defense could be played if fantasy owners are desperate to fill the position, but if better options are available, they should remain on the bench.

Author Bio

Richard Garcia
Garcia served as a managing editor for KFFL. Prior to his time with KFFL, Richard worked in managerial roles with both Frito-Lay Inc. and UPS. He received his Bachelor of Science degree in public relations from California State Polytechnic University-Pomona and fulfilled his internship requirements with the Los Angeles Kings Hockey organization in 2001.