Fantasy Football and NFL News, Rumors and Injury Updates

Strategy: Making the Playoff Push

December 6, 2007 @ 16:00:05

By Kenneth Humphrey
Edited by Cory J. Bonini

It's that time of year once again: Shopping for presents. De-tangling those blasted holiday lights. Burning the last few vacation days. Shoveling snow up north.

Best of all, entering that first playoff game.

Well, for owners who made it that far, it's best. The rest can go back to the usual grind and plot how they'll take it all next year.

For most leagues, the Weeks 14-16 are the playoff games, the time when all the hard work and studying finally pay out. It's the time when you can feel justified about strange looks from your co-workers as you once described the advantages of point-per-catch leagues. A fantasy owner in quest for the holy grail of a championship has only one path there, and it leads through these next three weeks. Every little point counts; one loss sends you home in a hurry.

In this article, we're going to discuss some fringe players that might give you that extra little something-something to push onto the next game. These players are not on rosters in most 10- or 12-team leagues. Heck, they may not even be starters on their own team, but they are likely available in your waiver pool and may be facing advantageous matchups sometime over the next three weeks.

Some of the names might even cause you to raise an eyebrow and wonder if we know what we're talking about. Trust us - there is a method to the madness here.

It's all about the trophy, the money, the honor of being King of the Hill. Without further ado, let's plunge in.

Quarterbacks

David Garrard, Jacksonville Jaguars - Of the signal callers profiled here, Garrard may be the most obvious choice. Yet, he is a player under the radar for a lot of owners. Why is that? Is it the low number of yards (1,883) that has him at No. 22 among all quarterbacks? The mere 11 touchdowns? Well, here's a number that should catch your eye: One. As in one interception all year. Even that was a tip-drill. Garrard may not be a prolific scorer, but neither is he going to erode points from you in leagues that penalize for such things. For comparison, let's take a glance at another quarterback who probably hasn't seen the waiver wire all year.

Name	Yds	TDs	INTs	Att/Game	QB Rating
David Garrard	1,883	11	1	26.4	104.7
Vince Young	1,911	7	14	26.8	68.9

Young went off the draft boards as one of the top-10 quarterback picks in most leagues. Yet, he has actually returned worse production than Garrard, despite Garrard's three-game absence. Even adding in Young's three rushing touchdowns still brings him up short in that category. However, this comparison is not about identifying Young's shortcomings. Garrard has a favorable matchup in Week 14 against the Carolina Panthers. They are allowing 207.2 yards per game, 1.3 passing touchdowns and picking off opposing quarterbacks just once per game. Garrard may not have a blowup game here, but if you don't like your other matchups, he could be a solid one-week get.

Tarvaris Jackson, Minnesota Vikings - Speaking of the Men in Purple, if we had recommended Jackson as a viable pick-up six weeks ago, you would have immediately removed the KFFL bookmark from your browser. In a four-month season, things change fast. Jackson has looked much improved over the last three weeks and many pundits are jumping on the Vikings' bandwagon as a team to watch. Certainly Minnesota will be playing with fervor down the stretch as they are suddenly legit Wild Card contenders with a favorable schedule. The only way they control their own destiny is by winning out.

Jackson may not post Tom Brady-like numbers, but his decision-making has markedly improved. After throwing five picks in the first two games, he has only thrown two more in the six games he's played since then. Over the last three game run, his rating is 109.8, he has tossed three scores and ran for an additional 77 yards. Journeyman numbers to be sure, but worlds better than what he showed early on. What makes him intriguing are the upcoming matchups.

Table: Upcoming Opponents - Weeks 14-16

WK	Team	Pass Yds/Gm Allwd	Pass TDs/Gm Allwd	INTs/GM	Opposing QB Rating
14	@ SF	222.2	1.50	0.80	90.9
15	CHI	225.1	1.10	0.75	89.8
16	WAS	216.8	1.40	0.75	84.5

Extra Bonus: Two-yard swing passes to rookie wunderkind Adrian Peterson turned into 70-yard touchdown plays count the same as 70-yard bombs!

Running Backs

The pickings are a little slimmer here, mainly because running backs are the meat of fantasy leagues. Two of the players listed here are sheer desperation moves. The other may already be taken by savvy owners.

Ryan Grant, Green Bay Packers - OK, so maybe it doesn't take a swami to recognize Grant's recent production. We'd still like to cover it, given the matchups down the line. Against the Detroit Lions and Dallas Cowboys the last two weeks, Grant has averaged 6.7 yards per carry, to go along with 195 yards total rushing as well as three scores. Take a look at who is up on the docket.

Table: Upcoming Opponents - Weeks 14-16

WK	Team	Rush Yds/Gm Allwd	Avg	Rush TDs/Gm Allwd
14	OAK	148.0	4.8	1.60
15	@ STL	109.3	4.1	1.00
16	@CHI	130.8	4.4	1.00

In Green Bay for Week 14, with the Wisconsin weather turning worse, as well as quarterback Brett Favre coming off elbow and shoulder injuries severe enough to remove him from last week's game, look for the Packers to chew up Oakland on the ground. Furthermore, Oakland stinks when it comes to stopping the run.

Kevin Faulk, New England Patriots - Label him desperate move No. 1. The redeeming qualities for Faulk are his ability to catch out of the backfield. If you play in a point-per-reception league, he's usually worth a half-dozen points on average. Specifically, we'd like to point to Week 15 against the New York Jets and Week 16 against the Miami Dolphins.

Table: Upcoming Opponents - Weeks 15-16

WK	Team	Rush Yds/Gm Allwd	Avg	Rush TDs/Gm Allwd
15	NYJ	141.1	4.3	0.90
16	MIA	149.7	4.3	1.30

Aaron Stecker, New Orleans Saints - Desperate move No. 2. With Reggie Bush limping along, Stecker is seeing a half-dozen touches, on average, for each game. Coming up Week 14, he faces an Atlanta team that ranks 24th in rushing yards allowed. That ranking is made up of 121.9 yards, a 4.3-yard average and 0.75 scores per game. As with Faulk above, Stecker is involved in the short-passing game.

Wide Receivers

This position is always a little iffy; production is affected more significantly by opponents, scheme or quarterback play. None of the players listed here are No. 1 targets, some not even No. 2s. All are showing signs of life or have a chance of increased production due to team makeup.

Joe Jurevicius, Cleveland Browns - The development of Cleveland's offense has received press all season, most of it centered on quarterback Derek Anderson, as well as pass catchers Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow. However, for those who study below the surface numbers, Jurevicius' contributions cannot be ignored. His matchups over the next few weeks are encouraging.

Table: Upcoming Opponents - Weeks 14-16

WK	Team	Rec/Gm	Rec Yds/Gm	Rec TDs/Gm
14	@NYJ	18.9	223.0	1.25
15	BUF	23.8	259.8	1.50
16	@CIN	21.5	246.3	2.00

Bryant Johnson, Arizona Cardinals - The story in Arizona is the health of the receiver crew, especially with the Cards in heated Wild Card contention. Currently, they are tied with Detroit and Minnesota in straight-up record. This is not the place to go into playoff tiebreak scenarios, so let's leave it at this: Just like the Vikings, they need to win out.

It will be a more difficult process without Anquan Boldin (toe) and Larry Fitzgerald (groin). Boldin has a toe injury that may require surgery, but at the very least it has him in a walking boot. He is day-to-day, but don't expect him to play Week 14. Fitzgerald is battling a groin injury and, like Boldin, is day-to-day.

Johnson gave some relief to owners that grabbed him at the 11th hour when Fitzgerald was declared inactive for the Week 13 game against Cleveland. He logged six catches, 56 yards and a score. Games at the Seattle Seahawks, at the New Orleans Saints and against the Atlanta Falcons should provide more opportunities for him to showcase his skill.

Mike Furrey and Shaun McDonald, Detroit Lions - Call this the two-for-one special. The Lions, off to a hot 6-2 start, have slid to 6-6, with no relief in sight. Top that off with a knee injury to stud receiver Roy Williams that could end his season. At least it opens the door for these two receivers to fill that void. The primary quandary for owners here is to decide which player will get the looks. Let's compare the last four games for each.

Table: Receiving Statistics - Weeks 10-13

Player	Rec	Yrds	TDs
Furrey	17	162	0
McDonald	21	258	0

At first glance, it seems McDonald is getting the looks. He has four scores on the year to Furrey's one. Don't forget Furrey is coming off a season where he was one of the league's top receivers for receptions. Key word: Was. The other primary receiving target is rookie wideout Calvin Johnson. Given Johnson's recent problems with catching his passes, one of these guys could make a good one-week fill player.

Sidney Rice, Minnesota Vikings - Another rookie receiver in the NFC North is quietly making waves. Rice has caught two touchdowns in his last three games. His 79-yard option pass to open the Oakland game in Week 11 drew some highlights. He has a 100 percent completion rate and a gaudy 118.8 quarterback rating. Dual threat!

As noted above, the Vikings face a weak schedule for the rest of the season. San Francisco and Chicago have struggled defensively this year. Washington tragically lost perhaps its best defender and is clinging to the outer fringes of playoff hope.

Table: Upcoming Opponents - Weeks 14-16

WK	Team	Rec/Gm	Rec Yds/Gm	Rec TDs/Gm
14	@SF	22.1	236.1	1.5
15	CHI	20.6	242.2	1.1
16	WAS	22.0	228.7	1.4

With the emergence of quarterback Tarvaris Jackson, and his comfort level with Rice, don't be surprised if you see an increase in production for the rookie.

Place Kickers

Normally place kickers can be an afterthought. What do they normally bring to the table? Six points? Eight? When it's playoff season, every point is precious, worth twice what it is during the regular season.

Ryan Longwell, Minnesota Vikings - Wow. Three Vikes in this report. You'd think they were a team on the rise or something.

Longwell hasn't been a high-demand kicker throughout the season due to the inability of Minnesota's offense to find its way to the correct end of the field. As noted above and in other numerous sources on the web, the Vikings are making a serious push towards the second season. That alone wouldn't be enough reason to pick up Longwell. Other factors are playing into this.

Factor No. 1: The Vikings have scored 112 points in the last three weeks. Granted, three touchdowns came off turnovers and one from a kickoff, but still, Longwell's points count the same either way.
Factor No. 2: The schedule over the next three weeks features teams with the inability to stop opposing offenses. Two of those games are in the sheltered environment of the Metrodome, the other out in San Francisco. All three teams are in the bottom half of the league in field goals made, and only Washington is in the top half for extra points made.

Table: Upcoming Opponents - Weeks 14-16

WK	Team	FG Allwd/Gm	XP Allwd/Gm
14	@SF	1.90	2.50
15	CHI	1.75	2.40
16	WAS	1.75	2.00

Defensive Teams

Cleveland Browns - The inclusion of the Browns here may surprise you - and certainly you will need to pick your spots - but they are showing some life on that side of the ball, at least from a fantasy perspective. They are in the upper half of the league for interceptions, with 13. In the sack category they aren't as proficient, only logging 1.5 per game on average. The reason they might be worth a quick pick up has less to do with how they've performed this year and more to do with who they have coming up. In Week 14, they travel to New York to take on the Jets and second-year quarterback Kellen Clemens. The following week they host Buffalo and rookie quarterback Trent Edwards. Does anyone else smell a few cheap sacks and quick interceptions?

San Diego Chargers - The Chargers are another team that doesn't seem to get the recognition for the job its doing. They lead the league in picks with 20. They're tied for sixth with 32 sacks. They travel to Tennessee in Week 14, meeting up with Vince Young and his 14 interceptions. After that comes Detroit and Jon Kitna, a quarterback dumped on his keister 48 times already. At this pace he'll surpass his previous career high of 63 sacks taken last year. That must make him proud. San Diego is just the team to help him along.

In Closing

Please, do not run out and replace your starters with the guys listed in this report. You've worked too hard to reach the playoffs and as noted in the introduction, that's not what this is about.

There is a very good chance that over the next three weeks one of your starters is facing a bad matchup. It could be a San Francisco 49ers running back Frank Gore versus the Minnesota run defense scenario. You'll need to adjust your roster accordingly. Don't forget the chance of injury, either. If you don't have anyone on the bench making you feel good, then all that's left is the waiver wire. The pickings there may be slim but not if you know who the low-flying players are. That's the purpose of this report. Give you a little boost in knowledge. Show you why grabbing a free agent for one week can be good strategy.

Until the trophy is yours to loft in triumph, best of luck.