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NFC South Week 14 Fantasy Outlook

December 6, 2007 @ 16:47:29

By Michael Egnak
Edited by Richard Garcia

Note: All statistics appearing in this article are from Weeks 10-13, unless otherwise noted.

Do Not Bench List - All Positions

Quarterback Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints: Brees was 17-for-23 for 179 yards and two touchdowns during the team's Week 13 game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Through his past four games, Brees is averaging 250.2 passing yards, two passing touchdowns and 1.25 interceptions. He also has an average of 4.5 rushing yards and 0.25 rushing touchdowns during that span. Brees should be started with confidence heading into the fantasy postseason.
Running Back Earnest Graham, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Graham ran for 106 yards and one rushing touchdown, off of 22 carries during their Week 13 matchup against the New Orleans Saints. He also caught seven passes for 37 yards. Graham is averaging 94.3 rushing yards and one rushing touchdowns over his past three games. He is also averaging 3.33 receptions for 17.3 receiving yards during that timeframe. Graham should be started as a solid play on all fantasy teams.
Wide Receiver Marques Colston, New Orleans Saints: Colston caught just two passes for 39 yards in Week 13. Since Week 10, Colston is averaging a little more than six receptions, 94.8 receiving yards and 0.25 receiving touchdowns. Despite the poor performance last week, and being a weak play for Week 14, Colston is worth starting in all fantasy leagues against the Atlanta Falcons.

Quarterbacks

Player	Team	Gm	Pass Yds/G	Pass TD/G	INT/G	Rush Yards/G	Rush TD/G
Joey Harrington	Atlanta Falcons	4	167.5	0.75	0.75	1.2	0.00
Chris Redman	Atlanta Falcons	1	172.0	2.00	1.00	0.0	0.00
Vinny Testaverde	Carolina Panthers	3	193.3	1.33	1.33	7.0	0.00
Jeff Garcia	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	2	84.0	1.00	0.00	2.5	0.00

Harrington - It wasn't a very good week for Harrington. He started it off going 17-for-34 for 184 yards with one interception, before being replaced by quarterback Chris Redman, who went 16-for-24 for 172 yards, with two touchdowns and one interception. Head coach Bobby Petrino hasn't announced who will start the game against the Saints, and seems to be weighing his options between either Harrington or Redman. Regardless of who is named starter, fantasy teams should shy away from using any Atlanta quarterbacks this week.

Testaverde - Testaverde was 17-for-26 for 169 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions during Week 13 against the San Francisco 49ers. When healthy, Testaverde is likely the best chance for the team to win games. At 44 years old though, the team's offensive line is going to have to do a good job in protection in order to keep him off the weekly injury report. Testaverde is a weak play who should be benched for the game.

Garcia - Garcia (back) was forced to sit out the team's Week 13 game because of his sore back. He practiced on a limited basis Wednesday, Dec. 5, resulting in a good chance that he starts in Week 14. If Garcia were unable to go, fantasy owners could look to Luke McCown as a possible replacement. McCown was able to lead the Bucs to a victory, throwing for more than 300 yards and two touchdowns in making his first start since 2004.

Running Backs

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rush Yds/G	Rush TD/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Warrick Dunn	Atlanta Falcons	4	22.50 (33.15)	1.25 (21.78)	52.0	0.25	3.50	31.0	0.00
Jerious Norwood	Atlanta Falcons	3	7.33 (8.10)	0.67 (8.71)	43.7	0.00	2.00	13.3	0.00
DeAngelo Williams	Carolina Panthers	4	10.00 (15.23)	2.00 (18.66)	37.5	0.00	0.50	16.0	0.00
DeShaun Foster	Carolina Panthers	4	19.75 (30.07)	3.75 (34.99)	49.8	0.25	1.75	19.2	0.00
Reggie Bush	New Orleans Saints	4	19.50 (30.96)	2.25 (28.16)	36.8	0.25	5.75	35.0	0.00

Dunn - Dunn possibly had his worst game of the season last week, after he was held to just 17 rushing yards on 10 carries. He did, however, manage one reception for 23 receiving yards against the Rams as well. With the way running back Jerious Norwood performed, Dunn could possibly start to see a reduction in his playing time. He is a weak play for Week 14 against the Saints, but he is worth using as a No. 3 fantasy running back.

Norwood - Norwood was given just eight carries during Week 13, but was able to make the most of them, gaining 94 rushing yards against the Rams. He was also able to haul in three receptions for 21 yards. He could begin to see a larger role in the offense, considering that the team is out of playoff contention. Even with the potential for an increased role in Week 14, Norwood should only be viewed as a low-end No. 3 fantasy running back or as an injury replacement.

Williams - Williams was more effective than running back DeShaun Foster in Week 13, gaining 82 rushing yards on 17 carries while adding 46 receiving yards on just one reception. Foster, however, saw six more touches than Williams and could continue to get more opportunities over the rest of the season. Williams should be viewed as a weak play for Week 14 and should only be used as a low-end No. 3 fantasy running back or as an injury replacement.

Foster - Foster wasn't as effective with the ball in Week 13 as he has been in previous weeks, but he was still able to put up decent numbers for the game. Foster finished with 58 rushing yards and one rushing touchdown off of 21 carries, as well as 35 receiving yards off of three receptions. Foster is a weak play for Week 14 against the Jacksonville Jaguars and is worth using as a No. 3 fantasy running back.

Bush - Bush was able to gain 64 rushing yards off of 13 carries during Week 13 against the Buccaneers. He also gained 13 receiving yards off of three receptions. It was the first time since Week 9 that Bush gained more than 34 rushing yards in a game. Even though Bush has been struggling recently, he remains a solid No. 2 fantasy running back.

Wide Receivers

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Roddy White	Atlanta Falcons	4	11.75 (17.31)	0.75 (13.07)	6.50	83.8	0.50
Steve Smith	Carolina Panthers	3	12.00 (13.70)	2.00 (13.99)	6.33	57.3	0.00
Joey Galloway	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	3	6.00 (10.01)	0.33 (3.98)	3.67	81.0	0.33
Ike Hilliard	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	3	4.00 (6.68)	0.00 (0.00)	3.00	29.0	0.00

White - White is coming off one of his best performances this season after setting career-highs with 10 receptions and 149 receiving yards during their Week 13 game. He also snagged a 15-yard touchdown pass during the game. White has been surprisingly consistent this year, and has emerged as a solid starting option each week. He is worth using as a No. 1 fantasy wideout for Week 14 against the Saints.

Smith - Smith didn't have a great game during Week 13, but it was one of his best showings since Week 6. He caught eight passes for 64 receiving yards, both of which are highs since his Week 6 game. He also ran the ball twice for another 21 yards. Smith remains a solid No. 3 fantasy wide receiver for Week 14 and may see his numbers improve a bit as he gets more time with Testaverde throwing to him.

Galloway - Galloway caught seven passes for 159 yards during the team's Week 13 game. Both were season highs as he had quarterback Luke McCown looking his way for a decent portion of the team's game against the Saints. He should be viewed as a low-end No. 2 or a No. 3 fantasy wideout for Week 14 against the Houston Texans.

Hilliard - Hilliard caught four passes for 29 yards during Week 13, his third consecutive game with fairly poor numbers. Hilliard is quickly losing the small amount of fantasy value he had this year. He is a weak play for Week 14 and should be benched.

Tight Ends

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Alge Crumpler	Atlanta Falcons	4	6.75 (9.94)	0.50 (8.71)	3.75	36.5	0.25
Jeff King	Carolina Panthers	4	6.00 (9.14)	1.25 (11.66)	2.75	21.0	0.25
Eric Johnson	New Orleans Saints	4	2.75 (4.37)	0.25 (3.13)	2.00	21.5	0.25
Alex Smith	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	3	3.33 (5.56)	0.33 (3.98)	2.33	34.3	0.33

Crumpler - Crumpler caught seven passes for 65 yards during the team's Week 13 game. To show how bad his year is going so far, both were season highs for Crumpler. He is a strong play for Week 14 against the Saints, but he is still just a low-end starting option for fantasy teams.

King - King caught just two passes for four receiving yards, but one of those receptions was a 1-yard touchdown reception in the final quarter of the game. If it wasn't for the touchdown, it would have been King's worst game from a fantasy perspective this year. King is a weak play for Week 14 and should stay benched.

Johnson - With the team's passing game held in check during Week 13, Johnson was stuck with just two receptions for 12 yards against the Buccaneers. Johnson has been a huge disappointment this year and barely worth a roster position. For those still holding on to him, he is a weak play that should not be used in your starting lineup.

Smith - After two solid games from Smith, he regressed back to his early season form by catching just one pass for 11 yards. Smith is another NFC South tight end that should be benched for Week 14, as he is a weak play against the Houston Texans.

Place Kickers

Player	Team	Gm	XP/G	XPA/G	FG/G	FGA/G	Kick Pnts/G
Morten Andersen	Atlanta Falcons	4	1.25	1.25	1.25	1.25	5.0
John Kasay	Carolina Panthers	4	1.75	1.75	1.50	1.50	6.2
Olindo Mare	New Orleans Saints	4	2.25	2.25	0.50	0.75	3.8
Matt Bryant	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	3	2.67	2.67	2.33	2.67	9.7

Andersen - Andersen wasn't called on to do much during Week 13, kicking one field goal and one extra point during the game. The field goal was from 41 yards out and extended his streak to 10 consecutive field goals made. With the team's offense playing so poorly, he hasn't received many opportunities. Even though he has been accurate of late, he is still a weak play who should be benched for Week 14.

Kasay - Kasay was able to convert a chip-shot field goal during the Week 13 game, as well as converting all four of his extra point opportunities. Like Atlanta, the team's offense still struggles to make Kasay a reliable fantasy option. He should be benched in all fantasy leagues for Week 14.

Mare - Mare was able to successfully make all three of his extra point opportunities in Week 13, but he didn't get the chance for any field goals. He's averaging just 3.8 kicking points over his past four games. He ranks as a weak play and should be benched for Sunday's game.

Bryant - Bryant was able to make two of his three field goal opportunities, missing wide right on a 53-yard attempt. He was good from 27 yards and 31 yards during the game. He also converted three extra point attempts, giving him nine kicking points for the game. He's averaging a little more than 2.50 opportunities per game over his last three and should be considered a low-end No. 1 fantasy option for Week 14.

Defensive Teams

Team	Gm	Off Pnts Allw/G	INT/G	Sacks/G	FR/G	DEF/ST TD/G
Atlanta Falcons	4	22.8	1.00	2.0	0.75	0.0
Carolina Panthers	4	22.5	1.25	2.2	0.75	0.5
New Orleans Saints	4	23.2	1.00	2.2	0.75	0.2
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	3	11.7	1.33	3.0	2.33	0.3

Falcons - The Falcons defense was able to record two interceptions and one sack during Week 13 against the St. Louis Rams, but they allowed 28 points and 409 net yards during the game. They'll face the Saints in Week 14, where they are a weak play that should be benched.

Panthers - The Panthers defense found the endzone again during Week 13, when cornerback Richard Marshall returned an interception 67 yards for a score. They also allowed just 14 points and 195 net yards while recording four interceptions, two fumble recoveries and six sacks. It's a shame they can't play the San Francisco 49ers every week. They will, however, face the Jaguars in Week 14. They are a weak play for the game, but they are worth using as a low-end No. 1 fantasy option.

Saints - The Saints defense did a fair amount of scoring on their own during Week 13. Cornerback Mike McKenzie returned an interception 53 yards for a touchdown and defensive end Will Smith was able to record a safety to give the team's defense eight points scored. Unfortunately, those were the only high points for the team's defense as they got steamrolled, allowing 27 points and 466 net yards. The interception was the only turnover they created while finishing with three sacks. The team's defense ranks as a No. 1 option for Week 14 against the Falcons.

Buccaneers - The team's defense wasn't as stringent as they were in weeks past, but they still held the Saints to just 15 offensive points and 246 net yards. They were also able to record three sacks and one fumble recovery during the game. They'll face the Texans during Week 14, where they are a strong play and worth starting as a No.1 fantasy defense.

Author Bio

Michael Egnak
Michael Egnak is a Hot Off The Wire Analyst at KFFL and has been with the company since 2005. Covering both NFL and MLB, Egnak is also a key contributor to KFFL's fantasy services.