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AFC West Week 14 Fantasy Outlook

December 6, 2007 @ 16:44:15

By Ken Jager
Edited by Herija C. Green

Note: All statistics appearing in this article are from Weeks 10-13, unless otherwise noted.

Do Not Bench List - All Positions

Running Back Larry Johnson, Kansas City Chiefs: Johnson (foot) did not play for a fourth straight week and is unlikely to play in Week 14. Running back Kolby Smith has performed well in Johnson's absence.
Running Back LaDainian Tomlinson, San Diego Chargers: The medicine to Tomlinson's funk of late? The Kansas City defense. Tomlinson embarrassed the Chiefs for a second time this season with 23 carries for 177 yards and two touchdowns last week. He also caught two passes for 20 yards. His two touchdowns pushed past legendary running back Walter Payton to No. 3 on the all-time rushing touchdown list with 111. Tomlinson gets another favorable matchup this weekend versus the Tennessee Titans and their struggling run defense. The Titans are worst in the league in rush defense in the last four weeks, giving up an average of 132.8 yards and 1.75 touchdowns per game. Tomlinson is a strong No. 1 this week, but we didn't need to tell you that.
Running Back Justin Fargas, Oakland Raiders: Fargas gets elevated to "Do Not Bench" status with another big game last week with a season-high 33 carries for 146 yards and one touchdown to go with two catches for 18 yards. It was his second consecutive big game and third 100-yard rushing performance in five weeks. So make sure he's not in your free agency pool heading into the playoffs. He faces the Green Bay Packers this week, a team that's given up an average of 106.5 yards per game to the running back position during the last four weeks, but only 0.25 touchdowns. Fargas is a weak play as a No. 1 option.
Tight End Antonio Gates, San Diego Chargers: In a likely anomaly for Gates, he recorded only one catch for minus-one yard last week. Tomlinson had a busy day and quarterback Philip Rivers completed just 10 passes in the game, leaving Gates on the short-end. Despite being a weak play against the Titans this week, Gates is still a top fantasy option and should be deployed with no hesitation.
Tight End Tony Gonzalez, Kansas City Chiefs: Gonzalez benefited from quarterback Damon Huard starting in place of injured quarterback Brodie Croyle (back) last week, catching 10 passes for 140 yards, both season highs, though he didn't score a touchdown. Gonzalez remains a top fantasy option against Denver this week, though it remains to be seen who will be the one passing to him.

Quarterbacks

Player	Team	Gm	Pass Yds/G	Pass TD/G	INT/G	Rush Yards/G	Rush TD/G
Jay Cutler	Denver Broncos	4	227.0	1.25	1.00	12.2	0.00
Brodie Croyle	Kansas City Chiefs	3	158.7	0.33	0.67	3.3	0.00
Josh McCown	Oakland Raiders	2	124.5	1.50	0.50	22.0	0.00
Philip Rivers	San Diego Chargers	4	204.8	1.25	1.25	4.2	0.00

Cutler - Perhaps the most exciting aspect Cutler brings to fantasy owners is guessing which quarterback will show up in any given week. The Cutler that showed up last week no doubt left fantasy owners grimacing (16-for-32, 204 yards, no touchdowns, two interceptions). Ideally, you'd have a better option than Cutler going into the fantasy playoffs, but if you need him this weekend against a good Kansas City pass defense he can be played as a low-end No. 1 option. However, Cutler is a weak play and should ideally be left on the bench.

Croyle - Croyle (back) missed last week's game with an injury and his status for Week 14 is unknown. If he is unable to start, Huard (hand) would likely get another start, but he is nursing an injury himself. If neither can able to play, third-string quarterback Tyler Thigpen, who replaced Huard last week, would likely get the nod. Regardless, not much has come out of the quarterback position from Kansas City, so stay away from either of these two this week against Denver.

McCown - McCown (finger) regained the starting role last week over injured quarterback Daunte Culpepper (quadriceps) and was effective. He completed 14-of-21 passes for 141 yards and three touchdowns. The starter for Week 14 is yet to be named as both McCown and Culpepper are nursing injuries. On the flip side, quarterback JaMarcus Russell made his NFL debut in the game and could figure into the starting mix for Week 14. Keep an eye on this situation, and only use an Oakland quarterback this week versus Green Bay if you're desperate.

Rivers - Thanks to Tomlinson's good day Rivers' production was limited, and he was largely ineffective last week, completing just 10-of-21 passes for 157 yards. He also threw for a touchdown and an interception. Rivers again can't be relied upon this week versus a solid Tennessee pass defense and is a weak play for the bench.

Running Backs

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rush Yds/G	Rush TD/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Travis Henry	Denver Broncos	1	17.00 (6.91)	7.00 (21.22)	49.0	2.00	0.00	0.0	0.00
Selvin Young	Denver Broncos	3	16.33 (19.92)	1.33 (12.13)	63.7	0.33	2.33	15.3	0.00
Andre Hall	Denver Broncos	3	13.33 (16.26)	2.33 (21.22)	65.3	0.67	0.67	23.0	0.00
Kolby Smith	Kansas City Chiefs	4	18.75 (28.20)	2.00 (29.82)	63.0	0.50	2.00	11.0	0.00

Henry - Good news for owners who didn't give up on Henry - he won his appeal to the NFL and will not be suspended. Even more good news, if last week's game was any indication (15 carries for 49 yards and two touchdowns), is that he appears to be getting over his knee injury and his fantasy status is sharply rising for the rest of the season and will likely provide a lift to any fantasy playoff team. This week, he faces a porous Kansas City defense and is a strong play as a No. 1 back.

Young - Young's time appears to be up as the starting running back in Denver. Henry is getting back to form following his injury and won his appeal, so Young (arm) will likely slip back to his familiar backup role, limiting his fantasy value for the rest of the season. He also suffered an arm injury last week, so be sure to monitor his week-to-week status. If he is able to go, he would serve as a No. 2 or No. 3 back and be a strong play against Kansas City as he would likely spell Henry sporadically throughout the game.

Hall - Hall (ankle) missed last week's game with a high-ankle sprain and is day-to-day. Watch his status this week to see if he's able to practice and play in Week 14. If he can go, he will likely get limited carries spelling Henry and possibly Young if he plays. If Young is out this week, Hall's stock will rise. So, again, keep an eye on the situation as some fantasy points could be had here.

Smith - Smith had a productive game in his second start, rushing 21 times for 83 yards but was unable to find the end zone. The rookie faces a formidable Denver run defense this week, but with the uncertainty of Kansas City's quarterback situation he could see some extra touches this week. Keep your expectations tempered for Smith as a No. 3 running back option on the road, but be sure to pick him up off waivers for some help during the playoff stretch if he is available in your league.

Wide Receivers

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Brandon Marshall	Denver Broncos	4	9.00 (14.63)	1.00 (12.13)	5.00	76.2	0.50
Javon Walker	Denver Broncos	2	2.00 (1.63)	0.00 (0.00)	0.50	3.5	0.00
Brandon Stokley	Denver Broncos	4	8.00 (13.01)	0.00 (0.00)	3.25	65.8	0.25
Dwayne Bowe	Kansas City Chiefs	4	10.50 (15.79)	0.25 (3.73)	6.25	71.8	0.25
Jerry Porter	Oakland Raiders	4	7.00 (10.80)	0.50 (6.85)	3.75	58.5	0.25
Chris Chambers	San Diego Chargers	4	5.75 (9.60)	0.50 (9.16)	3.25	45.5	0.25

Marshall - Marshall continues to split looks with Stokley, but he still led the team with six receptions for 67 yards. Not a great game by Marshall's standards, but it's encouraging that he is starting to convert more of his targets into catches. Marshall comes in as a weak play versus a strong Kansas City pass defense, which he posted six catches for 85 yards against in Week 10, so keep him active as a No. 1 play.

Walker - Walker (knee) is making a rather slow comeback from his knee injury, posting only one catch for seven yards in his second game back last week. Based on that, it's hard to imagine Walker providing a real fantasy threat for the rest of the season, especially with Marshall and Stokley filling the void nicely. Look elsewhere for wide receiver help during the stretch run.

Stokley - Stokley has seen decent attention in the passing game since Walker's injury in Week 3, and his numbers are starting to come around. Following last week's three-catch, 102-yard performance, Stokley is averaging eight looks per game for 65.8 yards in the last four weeks. He also has four touchdowns on the season, the same amount as Marshall. In short, Stokley is doing just enough to warrant a weekly look. He is a weak play versus Kansas City as a No. 3 option.

Bowe - At first glance, it may appear that Bowe has hit the dreaded "rookie wall," but after another look, he's simply suffering from being part of an offense performing inconsistently at best. He's the top performing wide receiver on the team, but five catches for 55 yards like he received last week simply won't cut it. Bowe is a weak play this week, but because of his depth chart position, he can be used as a decent No. 3 receiver.

Porter - Porter caught his first touchdown since Week 4 last week with a four-catch, 49-yard performance against the Broncos. Teammate wide receiver Ronald Curry again got more looks than Porter, but he was less effective, leaving Porter as the top fantasy wide receiver option on the Oakland roster. Though that doesn't mean much on this offense. Porter is a low-end No. 3 option against a usually effective Green Bay pass defense.

Chambers - Chambers is a talented wide receiver, but it's hard to produce with an inconsistent quarterback. He led the team with 50 receiving yards on two catches last week, a clear indication of the limitations Chambers faces on this offense. Against a good Tennessee pass defense this week, only consider Chambers as a weak No. 3 or injury replacement option is he's all that's available to you.

Tight Ends

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Daniel Graham	Denver Broncos	4	2.00 (3.25)	1.25 (15.16)	1.00	10.0	0.25
Tony Scheffler	Denver Broncos	4	4.00 (6.50)	0.50 (6.06)	3.25	42.0	0.25
Zach Miller	Oakland Raiders	4	4.75 (7.33)	0.25 (3.42)	3.50	43.0	0.25

Graham - For the second straight week Graham did not record a reception. Graham is the kind of player that can single-handedly ruin fantasy playoff hopes for any team. Stay away.

Scheffler - Scheffler caught just one pass for 17 yards last week. This production was a sharp decrease from recent weeks, but he had a tough matchup against Oakland and his quarterback had a poor game. He doesn't get much of a break this week either, as Scheffler is a weak No. 1 play against a good Kansas City defense, but he's better left on the bench.

Miller - Miller had a coming out party of sorts last week with his best performance of the season, three catches for 58 yards and a touchdown. Despite Miller's increased involvement in the offense in recent weeks, it's difficult to consider him as a viable late-season fantasy option. He is a weak play this week against a tough Green Bay defense, and it's probably best to keep him on the bench.

Place Kickers

Player	Team	Gm	XP/G	XPA/G	FG/G	FGA/G	Kick Pnts/G
Jason Elam	Denver Broncos	4	3.25	3.25	2.00	2.00	9.2
John Carney	Kansas City Chiefs	1	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	4.0
Sebastian Janikowski	Oakland Raiders	4	1.75	1.75	2.75	3.25	10.0
Nate Kaeding	San Diego Chargers	4	2.25	2.25	1.75	2.00	7.5

Elam - Elam has established himself as a viable fantasy option with his play during the last four weeks. Last week, he connected both of his field goal attempts and his two extra point tries. As the Denver offense continues to roll, Elam is a strong play as a No. 1 kicker this week against a Kansas City defense that has allowed an average of 2.5 field goal attempts during the last four weeks.

Carney - Carney had a quiet debut with Kansas City this week as he made his only field goal attempt, a 38-yarder. He is likely to see more action this week against a Denver defense that has allowed an average of 3.25 field goal attempts and 2.50 extra point attempts during the last four weeks. Carney is a strong play as a low-end No. 1 kicker.

Janikowski - Janikowski had another productive outing last week hitting two field goals and all four extra point tries, but he also missed two field goals. One came from long range (58 yards), but the other was a 35-yarder, which is a chip shot by Janikowski's standards. Despite the misses, he is still producing, and Janikowski remains a No. 1 fantasy option this week against Green Bay, a team susceptible to giving up kicking points.

Kaeding - Kaeding made one-of-two field goals and all three extra points last week. The miss came on a 45-yarder in the second quarter. Kaeding faces Tennessee this week, a team that typically gives up more touchdowns than field goals, so consider him a low-end play, but you could probably find a better kicking option.

Defensive Teams

Team	Gm	Off Pnts Allw/G	INT/G	Sacks/G	FR/G	DEF/ST TD/G
Denver Broncos	4	22.0	1.50	2.0	1.50	0.4
Kansas City Chiefs	4	19.5	0.75	2.0	0.25	0.0
Oakland Raiders	4	20.2	1.00	2.5	1.50	0.0
San Diego Chargers	4	15.8	2.25	3.5	0.75	0.5

Broncos - Despite a strong matchup, the Denver defense had a terrible outing in Oakland, giving up 34 points to a weak offense and not recording a sack or an interception. Looking to turn it around this weekend, Denver goes against Kansas City and their shaky offensive situation. Denver held the Chiefs to just 11 points in Week 10, and the offense was arguably in better shape then. Go ahead and roll the dice on Denver again this week as a strong one-week play.

Chiefs - The Chiefs simply cannot stop the run. The defense gave up 177 yards and two touchdowns to one guy (Tomlinson) last week, and they gave up some long passing plays, despite the opposing quarterback completing only 10 passes. This team is in a funk so don't bother with the Chiefs defense this week and keep this weak play on the bench.

Raiders - The Oakland defense was able to contain the run last week against the Broncos en route to a 34-20 victory. Oakland held Denver to 292 total offensive yards and had four takeaways (two interceptions, two fumble recoveries). This week, the Raiders face a potent Green Bay offense that will likely be tough to contain on the road, especially if quarterback Brett Favre (shoulder, elbow) is healthy enough to play. Oakland is a weak play best suited for the bench.

Chargers - San Diego has taken over first place in the AFC West, thanks to another strong performance by the defense last week. Led by linebacker Shawne Merriman (three sacks, one fumble recovery) and cornerback Antonio Cromartie (two more interceptions giving him a league-leading eight on the season), the Chargers defense had a total of eight sacks, three interceptions and one fumble recovery in the 24-10 win over Kansas City. Enjoy the San Diego express again this week, as they are a strong No. 1 play against the spotty Tennessee offense.