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AFC South Week 14 Fantasy Outlook

December 6, 2007 @ 16:42:55

By Joe Book
Edited by Nicholas Minnix

Note: All statistics appearing in this article are from Weeks 10-13, unless otherwise noted.

Do Not Bench List - All Positions

Quarterback Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts: Manning had his best fantasy game of the season, throwing for 288 yards and four touchdowns in Week 13. He has thrown for seven touchdowns in the last two weeks, but the road becomes considerably harder, beginning with his Week 14 showdown with the Baltimore Ravens. Manning has more options, with tight end Dallas Clark and wide receiver Anthony Gonzalez returning to full strength. Manning is still among the elite, but don't expect gaudy numbers for the last four weeks of the season.
Running Back Joseph Addai, Indianapolis Colts: Addai couldn't find a rhythm against the Jaguars, finishing with only 67 rushing yards on 21 carries and failing to catch a pass for the first time all season. He remains one of the better options at running back, but he hasn't rushed for 100 yards since Week 9, and he has averaged only 3.2 yards per carry in the last month. Addai got stronger as the season went on last year, and he should continue to produce solid numbers despite rough matchups for the last quarter of the season.
Running Back Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville Jaguars: Jones-Drew is becoming frighteningly consistent. He has lost a few carries to running back Fred Taylor but manages to find the end zone every week. He has only carried the ball more than 15 times in a game once, but he is the top red zone option and has now scored in eight of his last nine games. In his 300 career carries, Jones-Drew has scored 21 rushing touchdowns. That's a guy you want in your lineup every week, regardless of the timeshare situation. Jones-Drew is an excellent option for the rest of this season, and, at only 22 years old, he could be a fantasy star for many years.
Wide Receiver Reggie Wayne, Indianapolis Colts: This past week, Wayne took advantage of a soft Jacksonville pass defense to have a monster game, catching eight passes for 158 yards and a touchdown. No matter who lines up on defense, Wayne gives fantasy owners a consistent outing. He's a spectacular route runner. Wayne hasn't missed a game since his rookie season and has four consecutive seasons of more than 1,000 yards receiving. He must be in your lineup every week.

Quarterbacks

Player	Team	Gm	Pass Yds/G	Pass TD/G	INT/G	Rush Yards/G	Rush TD/G
Sage Rosenfels	Houston Texans	1	185.0	1.00	1.00	25.0	0.00
David Garrard	Jacksonville Jaguars	3	247.3	1.67	0.33	5.3	0.00
Vince Young	Tennessee Titans	4	264.0	1.00	1.50	44.0	0.25

Rosenfels - With Texans quarterback Matt Schaub (shoulder) suffering a separated shoulder and possibly missing the rest of the season, Rosenfels takes the keys to the offense yet again. He was serviceable in his first stint as a starter but needs to avoid the turnover to be productive. The Texans host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this week, making Rosenfels a weak play at quarterback. In the last four weeks (three games), quarterbacks have passed for 241.7 yards, 1.33 touchdowns and 1.33 interceptions per game against. Tampa Bay. Rosenfels is a low-end No. 1 against the Bucs and doesn't have a favorable matchup until Week 17.

Garrard - Garrard threw his first interception of the season last week against the Colts, but he had an otherwise excellent fantasy game against a solid pass defense. Garrard missed on only five of his 29 pass attempts and finished with 257 yards passing and two touchdowns. When he's healthy, Garrard is a top-15 fantasy quarterback, and his receivers are getting better by the week. The Carolina Panthers have allowed 2.25 touchdown passes per game over the last month, making Garrard a solid play as a No. 1 quarterback this week.

Young - With the recent ineffectiveness of the running game, Young has been forced to throw more, much to the contentment of fantasy owners. He finished with 248 passing yards and two touchdowns, to go with 44 rushing yards, in Week 13. Young has become a legitimate fantasy quarterback in the last month and has shown the ability to throw on the run. His turnovers keep him from becoming an elite quarterback, but Young has improved to the point where you can trust him to offer solid numbers. He is a weak play against the San Diego Chargers this weekend, but he's still a solid No. 1 quarterback.

Running Backs

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rush Yds/G	Rush TD/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Ahman Green	Houston Texans	0	0.00 (0.00)	0.00 (0.00)	0.0	0.00	0.00	0.0	0.00
Ron Dayne	Houston Texans	3	22.67 (39.29)	2.00 (49.87)	84.3	0.33	2.67	19.3	0.00
Fred Taylor	Jacksonville Jaguars	4	16.50 (26.51)	1.50 (11.48)	84.5	0.50	0.50	3.5	0.00
Chris Brown	Tennessee Titans	3	9.67 (11.88)	2.00 (19.22)	29.3	0.33	2.33	27.0	0.00
LenDale White	Tennessee Titans	4	12.00 (19.66)	2.25 (28.83)	35.2	0.25	1.50	8.2	0.00

Green - Team officials said that Green (knee) will practice this week, giving the coaching staff a better idea of whether he can play again this season. He currently has little fantasy value, and with Dayne's recent success, Green probably won't offer much if he plays.

Dayne - Dayne (ankle) had an excellent game against the Titans, totaling 111 yards and a touchdown on 21 touches. He suffered a mildly sprained ankle during the game and probably won't practice much this week. He is still expected to play this weekend against the Buccaneers and is the primary option on the ground for Houston's offense. Tampa Bay hasn't allowed a rushing touchdown in a month, making Dayne a low-end No. 1 or solid No. 2 running back with a weak play. Watch his injury later in the week to see if you should find another option.

Taylor - Taylor keeps pushing away the retirement papers; he finished with 104 yards on 14 carries for the second consecutive week. He has thrived by splitting carries with Jones-Drew, allowing both to stay fresh late into games. Taylor is still largely ignored around the end zone, but he should be able to pile up enough yards to be useful. He likely won't be a top-tier option as long as Jones-Drew is scoring every week, but Taylor can be used as a low-end No. 1 or strong No. 2 running back this week against the Panthers, despite being a weak play.

Brown - He has been gradually stealing carries from White, and last week saw Brown's number called exclusively after White left with a dislocated finger. Brown scored an important fourth quarter touchdown and had an excellent second half. If White's injury is worse than originally believed, Brown could play a major role in the Titans' battle with the Chargers this weekend. Even if White is at full strength, Brown can be used as a No. 3 running back.

White - White (finger) left Week 13's game against the Texans with a dislocated finger but is expected to play this weekend. He was in the midst of a solid game, finishing with 60 yards and a touchdown on only 12 carries. He is still losing carries to Brown, but if White is able to perform without limitations, he's still the top running option on the team. With the Chargers looming, White is no better than a No. 3 running back this week.

Wide Receivers

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Kevin Walter	Houston Texans	3	6.67 (11.56)	0.33 (8.31)	3.33	35.7	0.33
Andre Johnson	Houston Texans	3	9.33 (16.18)	0.00 (0.00)	6.00	91.7	0.67
Marvin Harrison	Indianapolis Colts	0	0.00 (0.00)	0.00 (0.00)	0.00	0.0	0.00
Reggie Williams	Jacksonville Jaguars	4	4.00 (6.43)	0.50 (3.83)	2.00	50.8	0.50
Roydell Williams	Tennessee Titans	4	6.50 (10.65)	1.00 (12.81)	3.75	40.2	0.25
Justin Gage	Tennessee Titans	4	8.50 (13.93)	0.75 (9.61)	5.50	79.5	0.50

Walter - Walter went back to his disappearing act, catching one meaningless pass for 11 yards in Week 13. With Johnson back to full speed and Houston spreading the ball around, Walter is no longer a reliable fantasy receiver. This week, the only way he belongs in your lineup is as an injury replacement.

Johnson - Rosenfels seemed to develop a nice rapport with Johnson when starter Matt Schaub (shoulder) went down early in the game. Johnson caught a 28-yard touchdown pass from Rosenfels in the fourth quarter last week and finished with nine catches for 116 yards. He seems to be back to full speed. Tampa Bay has been tightfisted against the pass, but it's hard to leave Johnson on the bench. Use him as a solid No. 1 receiver this week and hope he can continue his solid run.

Harrison - Reports are circling that the Colts will give Harrison the rest of the regular season to rest in order to prepare him for the playoffs. He hasn't seen the field since Week 7 and adds nothing to your fantasy team at this point. If you're really desperate, you could consider dropping him for something that would immediately help you. However, we strongly advise against it at this stage.

Re. Williams - He still isn't targeted much in the Jacksonville offense, but Williams has the ability to make big plays. He has accrued 190 yards and two touchdowns in the last three weeks, but he has only caught seven passes. Williams is a weak play against a good Carolina pass defense, but he can still be used as a low-end No. 3 receiver.

Ro. Williams - Williams showed signs of life last week, hauling in five passes for 74 yards and a third quarter touchdown that gave the Titans the lead for good. He has become the third option in the passing offense, behind fellow receiver Gage and tight end Bo Scaife, but he could still provide decent numbers as an injury replacement this week. He isn't consistent enough to be considered anything more.

Gage - Gage has emerged as a fantastic fantasy option, especially after catching five balls for 64 yards and a touchdown against the Texans last week. He is averaging 79.5 yards per game over the last month, a figure surpassed by only four other receivers in the AFC. As long as Young is throwing 30 or more times per game, Gage will be an excellent producer for your team. Despite the Chargers improving pass defense, Gage is a low-end No. 1 receiver this week. Honestly.

Tight Ends

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Owen Daniels	Houston Texans	3	6.67 (11.56)	0.67 (16.62)	5.00	66.0	0.33
Dallas Clark	Indianapolis Colts	3	8.67 (11.02)	2.00 (11.65)	5.00	41.3	1.00
Marcedes Lewis	Jacksonville Jaguars	4	4.50 (7.23)	1.25 (9.56)	3.00	27.0	0.50
Bo Scaife	Tennessee Titans	4	7.25 (11.88)	0.50 (6.41)	4.00	44.2	0.00

Daniels - He came back to earth after a phenomenal Week 12, but Daniels is still among the best options at the position. The Texans face some excellent pass defenses down the stretch, so there might be better options than Daniels. He's a No. 1 option this week against the Buccaneers.

Clark - Clark is climbing the ladder to being listed as a top tight end, as he hauled in seven passes for 60 yards and two touchdowns last week against the Jaguars. Quarterback Peyton Manning targeted Clark twice in the red zone, leading to both touchdowns. If Clark continues to get open inside the 20, he could be an unstoppable weapon in the last month of the season. He is as strong of an option as there is this week against the Ravens, who are allowing 52.2 yards and 0.50 touchdowns per game to tight ends in the past month, so use him with confidence as a No. 1 tight end.

Lewis - Lewis performed well in his first week without competition at the position, catching five passes for 42 yards and a touchdown against the Colts. With nobody stealing targets from him, Lewis could emerge as a fantastic option down the stretch. The Panthers are allowing 62.5 yards per game to the position over the last four games, so use Lewis as a No. 1 tight end this week.

Scaife - He continues to be one of Young's most utilized targets, but Scaife's only touchdown came in Week 3. He is a great play if you need a consistent 40 yards every week, but he likely won't offer any monster Sundays. Until Young looks to Scaife more in the red zone, Scaife remains a low-end No. 1 tight end at best, as he is this week, and he could remain on the bench if you have better options.

Place Kickers

Player	Team	Gm	XPA/G	XP/G	FGA/G	FG/G	Kick Pnts/G
Kris Brown	Houston Texans	3	2.00	2.00	2.33	2.00	8.0
Adam Vinatieri	Indianapolis Colts	4	2.50	2.50	1.75	0.75	4.8
Josh Scobee	Jacksonville Jaguars	3	2.67	2.67	2.67	2.33	9.7
Rob Bironas	Tennessee Titans	4	1.75	1.75	1.75	1.50	6.2

Brown - Brown was perfect on two field goal attempts and two extra point attempts this past week. With a 50-yarder in the fourth quarter, Brown improved to 5-for-5 from 50 or yards or farther on the season. In leagues rewarding bonus points for distance, Brown is among the top fantasy options. Tampa Bay doesn't allow many kicking points, so despite his recent success, Brown is only a low-end No. 1 kicker this week.

Vinatieri - Vinatieri's disappointing season continued in Week 13, as he didn't attempt a field goal for the first time all season. With the Colts offense displaying fantastic efficiency inside the 30-yard line, Vinatieri simply hasn't had many opportunities. Despite his recent struggles, he is a top fantasy kicker for the week. Baltimore has allowed 14.8 kicking points per game over the last month, by far the most in the NFL. Start Vinatieri this week with confidence, and you may be rewarded.

Scobee - Scobee made a 47-yard field goal but missed a kick in the first half in a three-point loss to the Colts. He has been solid since his return in Week 11, and as the Jacksonville offense improves, so do Scobee's chances to produce. He is a low-end No. 1 kicker this week against the Panthers, who are allowing only 6.0 kicking points per game over the last four games.

Bironas - In the face of his success over the last six weeks, suggesting Bironas stay on your bench last week proved to be a solid move. He failed to make a field goal for the first time all season. His only attempt resulted in a miss from 53 yards at the end of the first half. He's still a solid kicker, but with the Chargers allowing a league-low 3.2 kicking points over their last four contests, Bironas belongs on your bench again this week.

Defensive Teams

Team	Gm	Off Pnts Allw/G	INT/G	Sacks/G	FR/G	DEF/ST TD/G
Houston Texans	3	21.7	1.33	1.7	0.33	0.00
Indianapolis Colts	4	14.8	1.25	2.2	1.00	0.50
Jacksonville Jaguars	4	18.0	1.75	1.5	0.50	0.00
Tennessee Titans	4	27.8	0.50	1.3	0.75	0.00

Texans - The Titans ran all over Houston's defense last week, and with the hot Buccaneers coming to town, Houston can't be trusted to give a solid defensive performance. They tied a season high with three sacks last week, but that isn't something to be proud of. Leave Houston on the bench this week. Tampa Bay has given up 2.33 sacks per game recently, but they have turned it over only once per game.

Colts - Indianapolis struggled in the second half against Jacksonville and allowed 411 total yards to the Jaguars. The Colts have had trouble stopping the run at times this season. A visit from Baltimore probably won't cure that, but they still have a strong-play matchup against a Baltimore team on a short week. That's because the Ravens have given up three sacks and 3.5 turnovers per game to the defense in the past four weeks.

Jaguars - Their run defense has improved dramatically, but stopping the Colts' high-octane offense would have been a tall task for any team. The Jaguars have recorded only two sacks in the last three weeks, and with the Carolina Panthers coming to town, Jacksonville should be on the bench once again. In the last four games, the Panthers have given up only 1.75 sacks per game. Their 2.75 total turnovers per game in that span make them a tempting opponent, though.

Titans - What happened to Tennessee's defense? After not allowing more than 99 yards rushing to any opponent for the first nine weeks of the season, the Titans have allowed nearly 150 rushing yards per game over the last month. They haven't pressured the quarterback and look lost on running plays. With running back LaDainian Tomlinson and the red-hot San Diego Chargers next on the schedule, the Titans shouldn't move from their spot on the bench. In the past month, San Diego has given up only 1.25 sacks and 1.5 turnovers per game to the defense.