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AFC East Week 14 Fantasy Outlook

December 6, 2007 @ 16:33:47

By Christopher Watkins
Edited by Herija C. Green

Note: All statistics appearing in this article are from Weeks 10-13, unless otherwise noted.

Do Not Bench List - All Positions

Quarterback Tom Brady, New England Patriots: For two straight weeks now, Brady owners have had to settle for average performances from the star quarterback. Still, Brady and the Patriots seemingly always play well in December and it certainly appears that head coach Bill Belichick's ultimate goal is to run the table this season. Brady figures to be tested at home against a tough Pittsburgh Steelers defense that's only giving up 150 yards and one passing touchdown per game since Week 10. He's got a weak play matchup this week but is still a strong No. 1 starter.
Running Back Marshawn Lynch, Buffalo Bills: Lynch (ankle) hasn't played since Week 10, and he's not a sure thing to return in Week 14. Bills head coach Dick Jauron seems more optimistic about Lynch's status this week than he did last, but an ankle injury certainly isn't something they're going to be careless with. Keep checking his status on KFFL during the week because if he can go, he'll play a Miami Dolphins defense that is giving up 113.8 rushing yards and 1.25 touchdowns per game to the position in their last four games.
Wide Receiver Randy Moss, New England Patriots: Another week, another touchdown for Moss, this time against the Baltimore Ravens on Monday Night Football. You simply can't underestimate his value on an amazingly efficient offense, which has targeted him for 23.81 percent of their red zone plays in the last four weeks. Moss is a weak play this week, but he's obviously a must-start and a strong No. 1 play.
Wide Receiver Wes Welker, New England Patriots: Welker's touchdown production has dropped off in the last four weeks, but don't let that fool you. He's been Brady's favorite target by far in that stretch, logging 7.67 catches and 81.7 yards per game since Week 10. That's a better average than any other receiver on the team, including Moss. Consider him a solid No. 3 this Sunday, even though he's a weak play against Pittsburgh.
New England Patriots, Defensive Team: After giving up 24 points to a weak Baltimore offense in Week 13, the Patriots defense should be frothing at the mouth to jump all over Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger this Sunday. Big Ben has been sacked 16 times in the last four weeks, which is good for second-worst in the league during that stretch. The Patriots defense hasn't been as dominant recently, but they are still averaging 1.7 sacks and 2.33 turnovers per game over the last four weeks (three games). After two near-losses, Belichick will probably have his defense ready to step up in a huge game against the Steelers. They are a strong play this week and should be a No. 1 defense.

Quarterbacks

Player	Team	Gm	Pass Yds/G	Pass TD/G	INT/G	Rush Yards/G	Rush TD/G
Trent Edwards	Buffalo Bills	1	257.0	0.00	0.00	4.0	0.00
John Beck	Miami Dolphins	3	139.3	0.00	1.00	4.7	0.00
Kellen Clemens	New York Jets	3	180.0	0.67	1.00	11.7	0.00

Edwards - Although Edwards and the Bills won a big road game against the Washington Redskins last week, there's a reason why their quarterback position has been in turmoil all season long. Even with the team in the thick of the AFC Wild Card race, neither Edwards nor quarterback J.P. Losman has shown they can be trusted as a fantasy option. For the season, Edwards has appeared in six games and has thrown only one touchdown against five interceptions. He's a weak play, even against Miami. Bench him.

Beck - After squandering what appeared to be their best chance left to win a game against the Jets this past Sunday, Beck and the Dolphins don't have it any easier this week in Buffalo. Beck has yet to throw a touchdown pass this season in three games and has looked very much like the rookie he is. Beck is a weak play and should be benched.

Clemens - At first glance, you might think about starting Clemens this week if you're weak at quarterback. After all, the Jets are facing a Browns team that has allowed an average of 245.5 passing yards and 1.75 passing touchdowns per game in the last four weeks. Then again, these are the Jets, and Clemens is throwing more interceptions than touchdowns. The Jets dropped 40 points on the Dolphins last week, but that was probably an aberration. Clemens is a weak play and should be benched against the Browns.

Running Backs

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rush Yds/G	Rush TD/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Jesse Chatman	Miami Dolphins	4	21.75 (37.77)	1.25 (55.37)	59.8	0.00	2.25	8.8	0.00
Laurence Maroney	New England Patriots	3	10.67 (14.90)	1.00 (5.50)	31.3	0.67	0.67	26.3	0.00
Thomas Jones	New York Jets	3	25.33 (38.23)	4.00 (33.18)	77.3	0.33	1.33	16.3	0.00
Leon Washington	New York Jets	3	6.33 (9.56)	1.33 (11.06)	30.7	0.67	1.00	13.3	0.00

Chatman - Chatman (ankle) had to leave Miami's Week 13 game against the Jets in the third quarter after re-aggravating his ankle injury. He has been listed as questionable for the team's Week 14 visit to Buffalo. Check back with KFFL all week to monitor his progress, because if he's able to go Chatman would face a defense that has given up 102 yards rushing and 1.25 touchdowns per game to opposing backs over the last four weeks. If he can't play look for running back Samkon Gado to get the start.

Maroney - Maroney hasn't been reliable as a fantasy player all season, and with the Patriots pass-happy offense facing an excellent Steelers defense this week, he may have a problem finding the end zone. In the last four games, the Steelers are only giving up 69 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs, and they've only given up one total touchdown on the ground during that stretch. Even when the Patriots have run the ball in recent weeks, they've split it up quite a bit. In the last four weeks Maroney has seen an average of 10.67 plays per game. However, running backs Heath Evans, Kyle Eckel and Kevin Faulk have combined for 15 plays per game in that same stretch. To say that the New England running backs are “splitting carries” would be a gross understatement. Maroney is a No. 3 starter this week at best.

Jones - Jones finally found the end zone for the first time this season against Miami last week. He's been posting some productive yardage numbers the last four weeks, but he's hardly been a productive point man in fantasy football this season. One positive for Jones owners this week is that the Jets are playing a Cleveland defense that in the last four weeks is giving up 108 rushing yards and 0.25 touchdowns per game to running backs. With his low touchdown output, Jones is a weak play, but against that Cleveland defense he's a low No. 2 starting option.

Washington - Even though the above numbers illustrate how Jones gets far more of the plays in the Jets offense, Washington capitalized on the scoring bonanza against Miami in Week 13 with two rushing touchdowns. However, the Jets offense has been inept for most of the season and that makes Washington a weak play against Cleveland despite his recent performance. At best, he's an injury replacement option this week.

Wide Receivers

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Lee Evans	Buffalo Bills	4	7.50 (13.87)	0.25 (9.98)	3.50	43.8	0.00
Marty Booker	Miami Dolphins	4	6.75 (11.72)	0.00 (0.00)	3.00	31.2	0.00
Donte' Stallworth	New England Patriots	3	6.33 (8.85)	0.33 (1.83)	4.00	59.3	0.00
Laveranues Coles	New York Jets	2	5.00 (5.03)	1.50 (8.29)	3.00	62.5	0.00
Brad Smith	New York Jets	3	6.00 (9.05)	2.67 (22.12)	2.00	19.0	0.33

Evans - With all the quarterback issues in Buffalo recently, Evans hasn't found the end zone since Week 9. Edwards hasn't given Evans' owners much hope for Week 14, but if there was ever a chance for a breakout game - it's Week 14 at home against Miami. However, because of the quarterback play in recent weeks, Evans is a weak play against the Dolphins and is no better than an injury replacement option.

Booker - Miami's wide receivers will likely be hurting to achieve any kind of fantasy value the rest of the season with Beck at the helm. Booker is no different, suffering through the last four weeks averaging only three catches for 31.2 yards receiving. Though the Buffalo defense is surrendering 165.8 yards and 1.25 touchdowns per game to wide receivers since Week 10, Booker is a weak play in a weak offense. Bench him.

Stallworth - Stallworth continues to be a distant third receiver option for Brady in the Patriots offensive scheme. Even wideout Jabar Gaffney got in on the act ahead of Stallworth with a touchdown catch Monday night against the Ravens. This week he faces a Pittsburgh defense that's only giving up 0.25 wide receiver touchdowns per game in the last four weeks. Week 14 is a weak play for Stallworth, and he should stay on the bench unless you have injuries to your top wide receivers.

Coles - Though Coles (ankle) has been banged up, he has put up some decent numbers this season on an otherwise abysmal offense. He might be the best chance the Jets have to score a touchdown against Cleveland in Week 14. The Browns are giving up 172.2 yards and one touchdown per game to wide receivers in the past four weeks, so you should consider him a No. 3 option.

Smith - With the injury to receiver Jerricho Cotchery (finger), Smith has done his best to take advantage of new opportunities. Trouble is the Jets simply haven't moved the ball when they're not playing the Dolphins. Although the Cleveland defense has been receiver-friendly in recent weeks, Coles should get more looks than Smith. Smith is a weak play against the Browns, so keep him on the bench.

Tight Ends

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Robert Royal	Buffalo Bills	4	1.75 (3.24)	0.00 (0.00)	1.25	6.5	0.00
David Martin	Miami Dolphins	4	3.50 (6.08)	0.00 (0.00)	2.75	24.5	0.00
Benjamin Watson	New England Patriots	3	5.33 (7.45)	1.67 (9.16)	2.67	28.7	0.33
Chris Baker	New York Jets	3	5.33 (8.05)	2.00 (16.59)	3.00	26.7	0.33

Royal - Royal's production has been poor the last four weeks, averaging just a shade more than a catch per game. This week he'll be up against a Miami defense that has actually done well against tight ends in recent weeks, giving up an average of only 21.5 yards and no touchdowns to the position since Week 10. Clearly Royal is a weak play and should remain on the bench.

Martin - Though Buffalo's defense has given up 62.5 yards per game to tight ends in the last four weeks, you just can't count on Martin to do much of anything when you consider the Miami offense and their quarterback situation. Martin has only scored two touchdowns and logged 209 yards the entire season, so don't look for him to suddenly break out. He's a weak play on the road in Buffalo and should be benched.

Watson - Watson is a guy that gives fantasy owners fits every week. He's a top tight end on the NFL's most explosive offense, but so many balls go to Moss and Welker in the red zone that he hasn't been a consistent starting selection. Then he further confounds fantasy owners by dropping an easy touchdown this past Monday night. Although Pittsburgh has given up an average of 0.50 touchdowns per game in the last four weeks to tight ends, Watson is a weak play and should be benched this week.

Baker - Baker is an intriguing prospect for Week 14. It's always a tough call when a player is a strong play while playing for a terrible offense. This week Baker is a strong play against a Cleveland defense that is giving up 56.2 yards and 0.75 touchdowns per game to tight ends the last four weeks. If you don't have a top-tier tight end, consider giving Baker a start this week against that sieve-like Cleveland defense.

Place Kickers

Player	Team	Gm	XP/G	XPA/G	FG/G	FGA/G	Kick Pnts/G
Rian Lindell	Buffalo Bills	4	0.75	0.75	1.75	1.75	6.0
Jay Feely	Miami Dolphins	4	0.75	0.75	0.75	1.00	3.0
Stephen Gostkowski	New England Patriots	3	5.00	5.00	1.00	1.33	8.0
Mike Nugent	New York Jets	3	1.67	1.67	3.00	3.00	10.7

Lindell - Lindell made a memorable game-winning field goal last week against the Redskins, but overall he hasn't had a lot of scoring opportunities lately. However, he has made good on the ones he's received, and the Bills could move the ball against the Dolphins this Sunday. Miami has allowed 6.8 points per game to kickers in the last four weeks. All that said, with the quarterback problems and uncertainty at the running back spot for Buffalo, Lindell is a weak play this week and should be benched.

Feely - The Dolphins don't seem to be any closer to solving their offensive woes, and that goes a long way to making Feely a weak play this week against the Bills. Buffalo has given up an average of 10.0 points per game the last four weeks to kickers (third-worst in the league), but the Dolphins are so bad on the offensive side of the ball that even that doesn't make Feely an option. He's a weak play and should be benched.

Gostkowski - Gostkowski has proven to be consistent this season for the touchdown-crazed Patriots offense. In Week 14, he'll go up against the Steelers who have given up only 5.2 points per game in the last four weeks, good for ninth in the league during that stretch. Because of that and the sheer volume of touchdowns the Patriots score, Gostowski should be played only as weak No. 1 or stay on the bench this week.

Nugent - If it's possible for a kicker to strike fear into the hearts of opponents in the world of fantasy football, Nugent's Week 14 game against Cleveland would be that game. Cleveland's defense has given up 9.2 points per game the last four weeks to kickers (fifth-worst in the league), and Nugent himself is first in the NFL in points per game by a kicker in that same stretch, with healthy 10.7 point average. Nugent is a strong play and is a solid No. 1 starter against the Browns.

Defensive Teams

Team	Gm	Off Pnts Allw/G	INT/G	Sacks/G	FR/G	DEF/ST TD/G
Buffalo Bills	4	28.0	0.25	1.2	0.50	0.0
Miami Dolphins	4	17.8	1.50	3.2	0.25	0.4
New York Jets	3	17.0	1.67	4.3	1.00	0.0

Bills - The Bills defense has been getting pummeled in recent weeks, and they haven't been causing many turnovers as the above statistics show. Although the Bills are in the playoff hunt in the AFC, in the fantasy football world you can't count on them even against a horrible Miami offense. Only the Detroit Lions defense has given up more points (30.0) in the last four games than the Bills (28.0). For a team as up and down as Buffalo, their defense is a weak play against Miami and should be benched.

Dolphins - Just as the Dolphins are set to start the rookie Beck against the Bills this Sunday, Buffalo is expected to counter with the rookie Edwards behind center against a Miami defense that has actually played better since Week 10. Since that week, the Dolphins have given up 17.8 points per game, good for eighth in the league. Despite those improved statistics, the Dolphins are a weak play on the road this week and should be benched.

Jets - The Jets have posted some very impressive sack numbers in the last four weeks; first in the league by far with a 4.3 per game average. They got a nice road blowout against the hapless Dolphins last week, but this week they will match up with the Browns who are ninth in the league in scoring the last four weeks with a 23.8 point-per-game average. Unless they get some kind of Meadowlands Miracle this Sunday, don't count on them for a start against the Browns. They should remain on the bench this week.