AFC North Week 14 Fantasy Outlook

December 6, 2007 @ 16:22:06

By Carland B. Whitaker
Edited by Herija C. Green

Note: All statistics appearing in this article are from Weeks 10-13, unless otherwise noted.

Do Not Bench List - All Positions

• Quarterback Carson Palmer, Cincinnati Bengals: The rollercoaster ride continues for Palmer. He followed the three-touchdown, 84 percent completion performance of Week 12 with zero touchdowns and a season-low 38 percent completion performance in Week 13. He did, however, avoid any picks in the latest game. For the past month he has averaged 1.25 touchdowns and 1.25 interceptions per game. He continues to be a No. 1 fantasy quarterback but a weak play in Week 14.
• Quarterback Derek Anderson, Cleveland Browns: In a losing cause, Anderson completed 21 of his 41 passes for 302 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions. For the past month he has averaged 56 percent completions for 239 passing yards with 1.75 touchdowns and one interception per game. He is a solid No. 1 fantasy quarterback but a weak play in Week 14.
• Running Back Willie Parker, Pittsburgh Steelers: Parker rushed the ball 28 times for 87 yards but again in Week 13 was kept out of the end zone. He also lost a pair of fumbles. He is a workhorse for the Steelers, averaging 26 carries per game, but he has not figured in the scoring very often this season. Largely for that reason, he has dropped to a No. 3 fantasy running back.
• Wide Receiver Chad Johnson, Cincinnati Bengals: Johnson caught six balls for 86 yards in Week 13 but did not score. For the past month, he has averaged 7.5 receptions for 87 yards and 0.75 touchdowns per game. Bear in mind that all of those touchdowns came in Week 12. He goes into the next contest as a solid No. 1 fantasy wide receiver and a strong play.
• Wide Receiver T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Cincinnati Bengals: Houshmandzadeh has cooled down significantly from the blistering first half of the season statistics he produced. He failed to score for the second week in a row and managed only 42 receiving yards on five catches. For the past month, he has averaged 6.5 receptions for 60 yards and 0.25 touchdowns per game. He is a low No. 2 fantasy wide receiver who is a strong play for Week 14.
• Wide Receiver Braylon Edwards, Cleveland Browns: Edwards had a productive Week 13, catching seven passes for 147 yards and a score. For the past four weeks, he has averaged five receptions for 77 yards and 0.75 touchdowns per game. He typically has not done well versus the New York Jets and is a weak play as well. He remains, however, a solid No. 1 fantasy wide receiver.
• Tight End Todd Heap, Baltimore Ravens: Heap (hamstring), once again, failed to play in Week 13. His status for Week 14 has not yet been determined, and he has played in only one game in the past month. In that game he caught four passes for 38 yards. Watch closely for his status for the upcoming game.
• Tight End Kellen Winslow, Cleveland Browns: Winslow had a below average game in Week 13 when he caught three passes for 35 yards. His statistics generally rival those of the top wide receivers in the division. For the past month, including last week's low numbers, Winslow has averaged 5.75 receptions for 64 yards and 0.5 touchdowns per game. He is a very strong No. 1 fantasy tight end and has done well in the past against the Jets.

Quarterbacks

Player	Team	Gm	Pass Yds/G	Pass TD/G	INT/G	Rush Yards/G	Rush TD/G
Kyle Boller	Baltimore Ravens	4	192.2	1.00	1.00	5.8	0.00
Ben Roethlisberger	Pittsburgh Steelers	4	205.5	1.25	1.25	17.0	0.50

Boller - Boller virtually made his offense come alive as the Ravens nearly ended the undefeated season of the New England Patriots in Week 13. He completed 15 of his 23 passes for 210 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. While it will be a game he will always remember, he is a weak play and should be benched in fantasy football.

Roethlisberger - Meanwhile, Roethlisberger, looked more ordinary than usual, completing 21 of his 32 passes for 184 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions. He has enjoyed success against the Patriots and enters the game as a solid No. 1 fantasy quarterback.

Running Backs

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rush Yds/G	Rush TD/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Willis McGahee	Baltimore Ravens	4	23.75 (38.08)	3.25 (44.75)	89.8	1.00	2.50	14.2	0.00
Rudi Johnson	Cincinnati Bengals	4	17.75 (24.08)	4.50 (29.08)	48.2	0.50	0.50	1.0	0.00
Kenny Watson	Cincinnati Bengals	4	12.25 (16.62)	3.00 (19.39)	27.2	0.25	4.00	26.8	0.00
Jamal Lewis	Cleveland Browns	4	24.50 (37.37)	5.25 (46.73)	80.8	0.50	3.00	18.8	0.25

McGahee - McGahee showed star quality as he rushed 30 times for 138 yards and a touchdown against the Patriots in Week 13. In doing so, he upheld his average of one touchdown per game over the past month. He continues to be a solid No. 1 fantasy running back.

Johnson - Johnson scored again in Week 13 but only rushed 14 times for 34 yards. He has just not been able to show the workhorse numbers he produced in the past three seasons. He can be used as a No. 3 fantasy running back, but he is a weak play.

Watson - Watson continues to take carries away from Johnson but he only rushed five times for 23 yards in Week 13. More significantly, his role, traditionally, has been as a receiver on third down, and he has averaged nearly 27 yards per game in that role. However, in Week 13, he did not catch a pass. He is involved enough in the Bengals offense that he can continue to be used as a No. 3 fantasy running back but is a weak play this week.

Lewis - Lewis had modest numbers last week, rushing 16 times for 62 yards. He has averaged nearly 100 yards of offense for the past month and has to be considered a low No. 1 fantasy running back but a weak play this Sunday.

Wide Receivers

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Derrick Mason	Baltimore Ravens	4	10.00 (16.03)	1.00 (13.77)	5.75	69.5	0.25
Mark Clayton	Baltimore Ravens	4	6.00 (9.62)	0.50 (6.88)	3.25	45.8	0.00
Joe Jurevicius	Cleveland Browns	4	6.50 (9.91)	0.75 (6.68)	4.50	56.2	0.00
Hines Ward	Pittsburgh Steelers	4	10.50 (16.28)	2.50 (22.31)	7.25	76.2	0.75
Santonio Holmes	Pittsburgh Steelers	2	7.50 (5.82)	0.50 (2.23)	4.50	64.0	0.50

Mason - Mason caught six passes for 67 yards and a score as the Ravens nearly upset the Patriots. However, he only ranks as a No. 3 fantasy wide out and is a weak play in Week 14.

Clayton - Clayton caught only one pass in Week 13. It was a desperation attempt in the waning seconds when Boller threw in an effort to score a touchdown as the game ended. It was a 52-yard strike that came up just shy of the goal line. Clayton is a weak play and should only be used as an injury replacement. Otherwise, bench him.

Jurevicius - Jurevicius caught four passes for 44 yards in Week 13. He warrants consideration only as an injury replacement and can be benched if you have other viable options.

Ward - Ward was electric in Week 13 as he pulled in 11 passes for 90 yards and two touchdowns. He regains his status as No. 1 fantasy wide receiver and a strong play for this week.

Holmes - Holmes (ankle) missed the action in Week 13, but he has gotten back on the practice field this week and is expected to play this Sunday. Assuming he goes, view Holmes as a No. 2 or No. 3 receiver with a strong play.

Tight Ends

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Reggie Kelly	Cincinnati Bengals	3	2.00 (2.03)	0.00 (0.00)	1.67	15.3	0.00
Heath Miller	Pittsburgh Steelers	4	3.75 (5.82)	1.25 (11.16)	2.75	34.2	0.25

Kelly - Kelly is a weak play and should be benched.

Miller - Miller had four receptions for 30 yards last week. He has not experienced a lot of success against the Patriots in the past but can still be used as a No. 1 fantasy tight end unless you have a better matchup.

Place Kickers

Player	Team	Gm	XP/G	XPA/G	FG/G	FGA/G	Kick Pnts/G
Matt Stover	Baltimore Ravens	4	2.25	2.25	1.00	1.00	5.2
Shayne Graham	Cincinnati Bengals	4	2.25	2.25	2.50	3.00	9.8
Phil Dawson	Cleveland Browns	4	2.75	2.75	2.00	2.50	8.8
Jeff Reed	Pittsburgh Steelers	4	1.50	1.50	2.00	2.25	7.5

Stover - Stover once spoke fear into the fantasy owners who faced him each week. But now, he has produced an average of just 5.2 points per week in the past month. He is a weak play and should be benched at this point.

Graham - Graham also has seen better seasons, including last year's Pro Bowl year. He is now in that nebulous area where you play him if you don't have a better choice. He is a low No. 1 fantasy kicker who might just as easily be relegated to the bench this week.

Dawson - Dawson ranks highest among the kickers in this division as a solid No. 1 fantasy kicker. He successfully converted two field goals and an extra point in Week 13.

Reed - Reed converted three extra point attempts and his only field goal attempt in Week 13. He is a weak play and should be benched in Week 14.

Defensive Teams

Team	Gm	Off Pnts Allw/G	INT/G	Sacks/G	FR/G	DEF/ST TD/G
Cincinnati Bengals	4	15.0	1.25	1.5	1.75	0.2
Cleveland Browns	4	23.2	1.50	3.0	0.75	0.4
Pittsburgh Steelers	4	12.8	0.25	2.0	1.00	0.0
Baltimore Ravens	4	26.8	0.50	1.8	0.25	0.2

Bengals - The Bengals have greatly improved on defense in the past month. They have cut the offensive points allowed to less than half what it was at mid-season. For that period, they have inflicted an average of three turnovers per game on their opposition. They can be used as a No. 1 fantasy defense this week.

Browns - The Browns had one interception, zero sacks and zero fumble recoveries in Week 13. Yet, they go into Week 14 as a low No. 1 fantasy defensive unit.

Steelers - The Steelers continue to limit the scoring of opposing teams as they enjoy a two-game lead in the division. However, they draw the Patriots this week. That makes them a weak play, though they can be used as a very low No. 1 fantasy defense in Week 14.

Ravens - In spite of three sacks and an interception against the Patriots, the Ravens defense is a weak play and should be benched versus the Colts.

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Carland B. Whitaker

Carland Whitaker, a graduate journalist, is a fierce competitor of fantasy football. A former high school football coach, he brings a unique "old school" philosophy and passion for the game. Carland has been a KFFL contributor since 2004.

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