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Z - Impact Analysis

Cabrera and Willis Look to Earn Stripes in Detroit

December 6, 2007 @ 12:21:35

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By Art Morath
Edited by Tim Heaney

Baseball's annual winter meetings often result in blockbuster trades, and this year has proved to be no exception. The Detroit Tigers made waves Tuesday, Dec. 5 by sending six prospects to the Florida Marlins for third baseman Miguel Cabrera and starting pitcher Dontrelle Willis. The Marlins were looking to dump payroll this offseason, and they did it by unloading two of their biggest stars. As for the Tigers, they had already traded for shortstop Edgar Renteria and outfielder Jacque Jones this offseason.

Both Cabrera and Willis were called up from the minors in 2003 when the Marlins defeated the New York Yankees in the World Series. Although it seems like Cabrera and Willis have been around for awhile, Cabrera is just 24 years old and Willis is 25 years old. Both will be eligible for free agency after the 2009 season, but more than likely Tigers general manager Dave Dombrowski will attempt to sign them to extensions, especially considering how much the Tigers gave up in the trade.

Miggy Moves to the Heart

Cabrera's power numbers have been outstanding for a player in his early 20s through his first five seasons in the majors, but they will likely increase now that he is in the Tigers' potent lineup. A career .313 hitter, Cabrera has averaged 32 home runs and 115 RBI since his first full season in 2004.

Cabrera is expected to bat anywhere between third and fifth in the order, with designated hitter Gary Sheffield and outfielder Magglio Ordonez filling the accompanying slots in the order. Hitting before or after Ordonez will be a great advantage to Cabrera, and should result in him seeing better pitches to hit than he was accustomed to in Florida. The 24-year-old has already established himself as one of the premier hitters in the game, and he will 

Table: Miguel Cabrera Statistics, 2005-2007

Year

G

AB

R

HR

RBI

AVG

2005

158

613

106

33

116

.323

2006

158

576

112

26

114

.339

2007

157

588

91

34

119

.320

Cabrera worried the Marlins brass this year when he put on some extra pounds. However, Cabrera has reportedly lost approximately 15 pounds this offseason and says he is working hard to get in shape for Spring Training.

Willis Looking to Rebound

While Cabrera has continued to excel, Willis is coming off the worst season of his career, despite making 35 starts and pitching over 200 innings in 2007. He posted a career worst 5.17 ERA and led the National League in earned runs allowed. The Tigers are hoping Willis returns to his 2005 form, when he finished runner-up to Chris Carpenter in the NL Cy Young race. The lefthander will likely be fourth in the rotation after starting pitchers Justin Verlander, Kenny Rogers, and Jeremy Bonderman. Southpaw Nate Robertson will be the fifth starter.

Table: Dontrelle Willis Statistics, 2005-2007

Year

IP

W

SO

ERA

WHIP

BAA

2005

236.1

22

170

2.63

1.13

.243

2006

223.1

12

160

3.87

1.42

.274

2007

205.1

10

146

5.17

1.60

.294

Willis, however, has been on a bit of a decline in the last two seasons. As noted, his ERA, WHIP and BAA have all jumped over the last three seasons. He makes the dreaded fantasy switch from the National League to the American League, where he will have to deal with the designated hitter. The Tigers still saw promise in the 25-year-old, who could still have some good years left in him.

Fantasy Outlook

The fact that both Cabrera and Willis are on a better team should boost their fantasy value and therefore their draft status. Cabrera should be drafted as a top-10 fantasy hitter (he has already been going in the first round this year), while Willis is more of a question mark because of his struggles in 2007. Perhaps the change of scenery will help Willis, and he may have more success now that he does not have the pressure of being the staff ace. Based on last year's production, Willis projects as a late-round pick, but he may be picked up earlier than that by fantasy players who expect him to regain his old form. Don't jump on him too soon, but he has a chance to bolster the back end of your fantasy staff.



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Author Bio

Art Morath
Art Morath has been a contributor to KFFL since 2007.

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