Miller and Maybin Join Marlins Youth Movement

December 6, 2007 @ 10:58:20

By Joe Book
Edited by Tim Heaney

On December 4, the Florida Marlins and Detroit Tigers completed a deal that sent starting pitcher Andrew Miller, outfielder Cameron Maybin and four other players to the Marlins for third baseman Miguel Cabrera and starting pitcher Dontrelle Willis.

Besides solidifying their position among the American League favorites to play in the 2008 World Series, the Tigers acquired the last two members of the 2003 World Champion Marlins. Only four years after reaching baseball's pinnacle for the second time in seven seasons, Florida will once again start from scratch after dealing two of the best young stars in the National League. At first glance, the Marlins cupboard looks bare, but deeper research shows that two of the young prospects that Florida received in the deal could make a major impact on the big league ballclub sooner rather than later.

Miller Likely to Hit Rotation

The sixth overall player selected in the 2006 Amateur Entry Draft, Miller was a dominant force at the University of North Carolina for three seasons. He finished his junior season with a 13-2 record and a 2.48 ERA, which culminated with Miller appearing in the College World Series National Championship game and being named the 2006 Baseball America College Player of the Year.

Miller pitched at three different minor league levels in 2007, compiling a 2.77 ERA in 78 innings. He won his first major league start on May 18 against the St. Louis Cardinals by throwing six scoreless innings. Miller was the first player from the 2006 draft to play in the major leagues, and he finished the 2007 season with a 5-5 record and a 5.63 ERA in 13 starts for the Tigers.

In addition to featuring a fastball that touches the high 90s, Miller uses a knee-bending slider to throw hitters off balance. He is working on a straight changeup to complement his two lead pitches, and has been described by many scouts as the best pitcher in the 2006 draft.

Miller should be in the Marlins starting rotation to open the 2008 season, and has a chance to quickly ascend to the top of the order. Righthander Anibal Sanchez is working his way back to health from shoulder surgery, southpaw Scott Olsen continues to battle off-field demons, and Sergio Mitre and Byung-Hyun Kim were largely ineffective last season. Miller won't have rookie status in 2008, but he could be one of the most improved pitchers in the major leagues.

The primary reason that Miller isn't a good fantasy option next year in re-draft leagues is his surroundings. Besides the two World Series Championship seasons, the Marlins have never won more than 83 games in a season in their 15 years of existence. Losing can be contagious, so you shouldn't expect Miller to win 18 games for a sub-.500 team. He should take a step forward and improve his control, setting the table for a solid 2009 season. Given his college and minor league success, plus the fact that he'll be only 22 years old on Opening Day, he makes an excellent middle round pick in keeper leagues. 

Maybin to Battle for Florida Outfield Spot

Maybin has as much experience and as many accolades as Miller, and has an excellent chance to make the team in March. A decorated North Carolina high school star, Maybin was the 10th overall player selected in the 2005 Amateur Entry draft. A contract dispute cost him the 2005 minor league season, but he made up for lost time with a superb year at Single-A West Michigan, compiling 69 runs batted in and 27 stolen bases while hitting .304 in 2006.

The 2004 Baseball America Youth Player of the Year began the 2007 season with High Single-A Lakeland, where he nearly duplicated his 2006 numbers in 90 fewer at bats. He was promoted to Double-A Erie on August 9, and proceeded to hit four home runs in six games. Maybin was called up to the Tigers eight days later, and hit .143 with five stolen bases in 53 plate appearances.

Widely considered the top prospect in the Tigers farm system, Maybin has an outside chance to begin the 2008 season playing center field for the Marlins. Incumbent Alfredo Amezaga offered no offense and limited range last season, and young outfield prospects Alejandro De Aza and Reggie Abercrombie combined to hit .218 in 220 at bats.

If Maybin cracks the lineup and hits in his natural second position, he could score 80-100 runs and steal 30-50 bases. With established run producers in second baseman Dan Uggla and outfielder Josh Willingham hitting behind him, and superstar shortstop Hanley Ramirez leading off, there could be many opportunities for the Marlins to score early in games. An excellent fantasy comparison to his potential is Philadelphia Phillies outfielder Shane Victorino, who emerged as a star in 2007 hitting second, with excellent hitters on both sides of him.

The battle for outfield playing time should be settled in spring training, so watch this situation carefully. Maybin will turn 21 early next season, so one more year of seasoning in the minor leagues isn't out of the question. If he makes the team, he could be an excellent late-round sleeper in re-draft leagues and middle-round steal in keeper leagues.

Fantasy Outlook

While fantasy owners can't be positive that the Marlins fire sale won't continue and include the likes of Ramirez, Willingham or Uggla, these two young players will be allowed to blossom in Florida. They are both fantastic long-term options, and Miller would be more likely to contribute this season. Even if Florida chooses to carry on as the farm team for contenders, these two young stars will have time to earn their keep.

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Joe Book
Joe has been with KFFL since 2007.

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