Percival Expected to Close in Tampa Bay

December 4, 2007 @ 16:16:24

By Andrew Stewart
Edited by Tim Heaney

On Thursday, Nov. 29, the Tampa Bay Rays officially signed free-agent closer Troy Percival to a two-year contract worth $8 million. Percival could make an additional $5 million dollars in incentives for appearances made and games finished. Percival signed with the Rays with the understanding that he would serve as the team's full-time closer.

The Retirement and Return

Percival spent nearly his entire major-league career with the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim organization - dating back to his rookie season in 1995 with the California Angels. Earning 29 holds and three saves in 1995, he served as the Angels closer for the next nine seasons. Arguably Percival's best season came in 2002, when he converted 40 of 44 save opportunities while recording 68 strikeouts with a 1.92 ERA and 1.12 WHIP.

Percival became a free agent after the 2004 season and signed with the Detroit Tigers in 2005, where he made only 26 appearances before tearing the flexor muscle in his right elbow. The injury sidelined him for the remainder of the year, leaving his 2005 season stats at an uninspiring 5.76 ERA with eight saves in 11 opportunities. He remained on the Tigers' disabled list for the entirety of the 2006 season before retiring at season's end.

In 2007, Percival signed a minor-league contract with the St. Louis Cardinals in hope of returning to the majors, finally joining the team on June 29. With the Cardinals, Percival seemed to regain his once-dominant form as he held batters in check all season long, finishing with three holds, an ERA of 1.80 and a WHIP of 0.85 in 34 appearances.

Reyes Takes a Hit

Another good thing going for Percival this season is that he will most likely have Al Reyes, who served as the Rays closer last season, pitching in front of him in the setup role. Reyes converted 26 of 30 opportunities last season with a 4.90 ERA and 1.15 WHIP, striking out 70 batters in 60.2 innings. Reyes has spent the majority of his career in middle relief, so he should be able to fulfill the setup role for the Rays with ease. Reyes is an upgrade at setup over the team's relief pitcher crop last season, which consisted of journeyman relievers such as Dan Wheeler, Gary Glover and Shawn Camp. However, unless Percival goes down with an injury, Reyes is worth little fantasy consideration except in leagues that reward holds.

Can Percival be counted on as a fantasy closer?

Despite Percival's strong showing in 2007, 34 appearances is too small a sample size to risk a high draft choice on. Percival has not served as a full-time closer for a complete season since 2004 - his last season as an Angel. At age 38, Percival is hardly a spring chicken, and it remains to be seen whether or not he can stay healthy for a whole season at this point in his career. And of course, there is also the looming threat that Percival will once again injure his right elbow as he did in 2005 and again in 2006 during Spring Training with the Detroit Tigers. However, his age and injury concerns aside, Percival still has the skills and the tools to be an effective fantasy closer next season. He showed last season that he can still make batters miss, recording a 0.85 WHIP and striking out 36 batters in 40 innings. His fastball stayed in the low- to mid-90's last year but topped out at 97 mph. If Percival can avoid injury and continue pitching at the level he displayed last season, he could be one of the more productive mid-tier fantasy closers this season. Owners should keep a close eye on Percival come Draft Day; if he slips into the later rounds, he is worth taking a chance on.

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Andrew Stewart
Andrew Stewart has been a Hot off the Wire Analyst for KFFL since 2007.

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