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NFC North Week 13 Fantasy Outlook

November 29, 2007 @ 15:39:12

By Herija C. Green
Edited by Matthew Scott Carr

Note: All statistics appearing in this article are from Weeks 9-12, unless otherwise noted.

Do Not Bench List - All Positions

Running Back Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings: The rookie sensation is expected to return to action this Sunday after missing the team's last two games, both of which turned out to be wins. With the team suddenly back in the thick of the NFC Wild Card hunt look for them to give Peterson (knee) a lot of touches this week. In his first meeting with the Detroit Lions, Peterson carried the ball 20 times for just 66 years, but he was able to supplement that with 52 yards receiving. Assuming he is indeed back this week make sure to insert him in your lineup.
Wide Receiver Roy Williams, Detroit Lions: Shadowed by Green Bay Packers cornerback Al Harris all day long last Thursday, Williams finished the game with just three catches for 32 yards. Still, he has been playing better of late and could be in line for a big day against a Vikings team that he amassed 111 yards and a touchdown against in Week 2. Play him as a No. 2 or No. 3 receiver.

Quarterbacks

Player	Team	Gm	Pass Yds/G	Pass TD/G	INT/G	Rush Yards/G	Rush TD/G
Rex Grossman	Chicago Bears	3	200.3	0.67	0.33	4.7	0.00
Jon Kitna	Detroit Lions	4	287.2	1.50	1.50	3.5	0.00
Tarvaris Jackson	Minnesota Vikings	3	121.0	0.33	0.33	25.3	0.00

Grossman - A late-game touchdown drive may have saved the day for Bears fans, but that certainly wasn't the case for fantasy owners as Grossman threw for just 193 yards, one touchdown and an interception while losing a pair of fumbles against the Denver Broncos. About the best thing you can say about Grossman at this point is that he isn't costing the Bears games, but he's not doing nearly enough to warrant a spot in your lineup unless you are in a desperate situation. On the bright side, he is a strong play against the New York Giants this week.

Kitna - The Packers put the clamps on Kitna in Week 12, allowing him to complete less than half of his 40 passes for 224 yards and one touchdown (most of which came after Detroit had fallen behind 34-12). His inconsistency continues to be an issue, though at least he only turned the ball over once last week after committing seven turnovers in his previous two games. This week he can be played as a low-end No. 1 quarterback.

Jackson - Jackson put the ball in the air just 12 times last Sunday, completing 10 of them, including a touchdown. He also ran for a season-high 38 yards against the Giants. Despite coming off one of his more respectable outings of the season, Jackson should stay on your bench in Week 13.

Running Backs

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rush Yds/G	Rush TD/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Adrian N. Peterson	Chicago Bears	3	11.67 (17.74)	3.67 (36.00)	20.7	0.67	3.00	20.0	0.00
Kevin Jones	Detroit Lions	4	18.00 (29.42)	1.00 (22.13)	46.2	0.50	3.50	20.5	0.00
Chester Taylor	Minnesota Vikings	4	19.00 (33.19)	3.25 (46.82)	84.5	1.25	2.25	33.0	0.00

Peterson - With running back Cedric Benson (leg) now out for the season the yeoman's share of the carries figure to go to Peterson, who is set to make just the second start in his six-year career this Sunday. Peterson racked up 86 total yards (45 rushing, 41 receiving) and a touchdown in relief of Benson last week and can be considered a No. 2 or No. 3 option in Week 13. However, he is a weak play versus a Giants defense that has allowed a mere 73 total yards per game to the running back position during the last month.

Jones - Jones bounced back from two hideous outings in a row to rumble for 93 yards and a score against the Packers. Offensive coordinator Mike Martz clearly tried to emphasize the running game on Thanksgiving Day, which led to Jones finishing with the second-highest number of carries (20) he's had in a game this season. Facing Minnesota this Sunday he is a low-end No. 2 or solid No. 3 running back.

Taylor - It was a busy day for Taylor in Week 12 as he carried the ball 31 times, albeit for just 77 yards. He did manage to score a touchdown and has played well in the last two games. However, the expected return of Peterson could submarine Taylor's fantasy value. If Peterson were to be held out another week Taylor can be played as a solid No. 1 option. If Peterson is back, view Taylor as a low-end No. 3 or injury replacement.

Wide Receivers

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Bernard Berrian	Chicago Bears	3	8.67 (13.18)	1.33 (13.09)	5.33	71.7	0.67
Muhsin Muhammad	Chicago Bears	3	5.67 (8.62)	0.67 (6.55)	3.00	61.3	0.00
Calvin Johnson	Detroit Lions	4	7.00 (11.44)	0.75 (16.60)	4.00	53.0	0.50
Shaun McDonald	Detroit Lions	4	9.25 (15.12)	0.25 (5.53)	5.00	70.5	0.25
Sidney Rice	Minnesota Vikings	3	5.67 (7.42)	0.33 (3.60)	3.00	55.3	0.67

Berrian - Berrian was held in check for almost the entire Week 12 game against Denver, but he came up with the biggest play of the game by making a beautiful catch to even the score at 34 with less than a minute remaining in regulation. The fourth-year receiver has played very well of late and is a strong play as a decent No. 1 fantasy receiver this Sunday.

Muhammad - The veteran was a non-factor versus the Broncos outside of drawing a dubious illegal contact penalty that allowed the game-winning drive to continue. For the game, Muhammad had a pair of 13-yard receptions, and he has now seen his numbers decline in both receptions and yards in each of the last three weeks. This week he can be started as a weak No. 3 or used to cover an injury, though he does boast a strong play capability.

Johnson - The Lions looked to the rookie early and often as Johnson was targeted 15 times (more than double the next highest Detroit receiver) against the Packers in Week 12, finishing with seven catches for 83 yards and a touchdown. There were chances for even more yardage, but Johnson had a couple of drops. Against the Vikings he should be viewed as a No. 2 or No. 3 receiver with a strong play.

McDonald - McDonald accounted for just 18 yards on Thanksgiving, which was his second-lowest output of the season (he had 17 yards in Week 7). Sandwiched in between those two poor performances were four games in which he had at least five catches and more than 60 yards receiving so he's been good much more often than he's been bad. This Sunday he deserves a spot as your No. 2 or No. 3 wideout and a strong play versus Minnesota.

Rice - Rice has unquestionably emerged as the team's most dangerous receiver, though one could argue being the most dangerous receiver in Minnesota is roughly akin to being the most dangerous ride at an amusement park composed entirely of marshmallows and Nerf. All kidding aside, Rice has surpassed 60 receiving yards and caught a touchdown in two of his last three games, which gives him value as a No. 2 or No. 3 receiver. Plus, he is a strong play against a Detroit secondary that was victimized at will by Green Bay a week ago.

Tight Ends

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Desmond Clark	Chicago Bears	3	3.00 (4.56)	0.33 (3.27)	1.67	30.7	0.00
Greg Olsen	Chicago Bears	3	4.33 (6.59)	0.67 (6.55)	2.67	17.7	0.00
Sean McHugh	Detroit Lions	4	1.00 (1.63)	0.00 (0.00)	0.50	16.0	0.00
Visanthe Shiancoe	Minnesota Vikings	4	2.25 (3.93)	0.50 (7.20)	1.50	32.0	0.00

Clark - After weeks of miserable performances Clark showed he still has a pulse with a pair of long receptions against Denver. For the game he led the Bears with 61 yards on just two catches. Despite the spike in production Clark should remain benched this week.

Olsen - The rookie was completely ineffective in Week 12, catching just one pass for 10 yards. He was also held without a reception in Week 10. Given his recent struggles the prudent move would be to bench Olsen in Week 13.

McHugh - McHugh did not have a reception on Thanksgiving, which seems somehow appropriate since fantasy owners everywhere should be thankful if he isn't on their rosters.

Shiancoe - As poor as Shiancoe's four-week averages look to begin with, realize that without a trick play that accounted for 79 yards he would only be averaging 12.5 yards per game. That is awful production or as we here at KFFL like to call it, "sub-McHugh." Keep him at arm's length from your roster.

Place Kickers

Player	Team	Gm	XPA/G	XP/G	FGA/G	FG/G	Kick Pnts/G
Robbie Gould	Chicago Bears	3	2.67	2.67	2.67	2.33	9.7
Jason Hanson	Detroit Lions	4	2.75	2.75	2.25	2.00	8.8
Ryan Longwell	Minnesota Vikings	4	3.25	3.25	1.25	1.00	6.2

Gould - Gould matched his season high with 13 points in Week 12, which also gave him back-to-back double-digit outputs for the first time this season. He's been playing much better of late and can be used as a solid No. 1 kicker against the G-Men.

Hanson - Always an excellent indoor kicker, Hanson was also able to match his season high with 14 points against the Packers on Thanksgiving. The veteran has now scored 10 or more points in four of his last six games, though it's worth noting he accounted for just seven points total in his other two games during that period. This week he is a high-end No. 1 kicker.

Longwell - Despite a fairly low four-week average, Longwell has actually picked up his game the past two weeks with 20 points combined after scoring just five total in Weeks 9 and 10. Nonetheless, he is a weak play and should be benched against a Detroit team he could manage just five points against back in Week 2.

Defensive Teams

Team	Gm	Off Pnts Allw/G	INT/G	Sacks/G	FR/G	DEF/ST TD/G
Chicago Bears	3	23.3	0.67	2.3	1.33	0.7
Detroit Lions	4	22.8	0.50	2.2	2.25	0.5
Minnesota Vikings	4	21.0	1.50	2.0	0.50	0.8

Bears - Another hideous outing by the Chicago defense (34 points, 430 net yards allowed) was overshadowed in fantasy circles thanks to return man Devin Hester running back two kicks for scores and making fantasy owners very happy. The actual defense did chip in a few nuggets with two sacks and two forced turnovers, but it was Hester who saved the day. This week the Bears are a strong play as a high-end No. 1 defense against a Giants offense that has allowed 3.33 sacks and turned the ball over 2.67 times per game over the last month.

Lions - Detroit was manhandled by Green Bay's offense in Week 12 as outside of a fumble recovery on the Packers' first play from scrimmage the defense failed to provide fantasy owners with anything. There should be more opportunities to make plays against the Vikings this week. In the past four weeks, Minnesota has allowed 2.75 sacks and 2.0 turnovers per contest. Play Detroit as a low-end No. 1 defense or bench them in Week 13.

Vikings - Minnesota's defense was beyond phenomenal last Sunday, intercepting Giants quarterback Eli Manning four times and returning three of them for touchdowns. They also added three sacks. Against the Lions this week the Vikings defense should be viewed as a decent No. 1 option with a strong play as Kitna has been sacked a ton and has had turnover difficulties throughout the year.