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AFC West Week 13 Fantasy Outlook

November 29, 2007 @ 15:36:19

By Ken Jager
Edited by Herija C. Green

Note: All statistics appearing in this article are from Weeks 9-12, unless otherwise noted.

Do Not Bench List - All Positions

Running Back Larry Johnson, Kansas City Chiefs: Johnson (foot) is not expected to play in Week 13, so if you have running back Kolby Smith on your roster, give him another start.
Running Back LaDainian Tomlinson, San Diego Chargers: Tomlinson tied a season-high with 24 carries for 77 yards and caught six passes for 45 yards in Week 12 with no touchdowns. This was his fourth straight pedestrian rushing performance. He's averaged 63.8 rushing yards (3.3 yards per carry), 0.75 rushing touchdowns and 49.0 receiving yards over the last four weeks, and he hasn't broken 100 yards on the ground since Week 6. Despite the lower than expected numbers from Tomlinson, he faces the same Kansas City Chiefs team he torched in Week 4 (132 rushing yards and a touchdown) this week and remains perched as a strong play No. 1 back.
Tight End Antonio Gates, San Diego Chargers: Gates benefited from quarterback Philip Rivers' strong performance in Week 12, amassing six catches for 105 yards and two touchdowns against a struggling Baltimore Ravens defense. No telling if Rivers will string two good games together this week, but Gates remains a must-play as a No. 1 tight end versus the struggling Kansas City defense.
Tight End Tony Gonzalez, Kansas City Chiefs: Since new quarterback Brodie Croyle took over in Week 10, Gonzalez isn't getting nearly the attention he's used to seeing, a discouraging development as we head into the fantasy playoffs. Croyle is favoring wide receiver Dwayne Bowe more, limiting Gonzalez to an average of six targets (which includes one red zone target per game) to Bowe's 10 (0.33 RZ targets) in those three weeks, averaging 3.33 receptions for 41.0 yards and no touchdowns. Gonzalez scored a touchdown when he faced San Diego in Week 4 to go with 71 yards receiving, so keep him in as a No. 1 tight end this week against the Chargers.

Quarterbacks

Player	Team	Gm	Pass Yds/G	Pass TD/G	INT/G	Rush Yards/G	Rush TD/G
Jay Cutler	Denver Broncos	4	178.5	1.25	0.50	10.0	0.00
Brodie Croyle	Kansas City Chiefs	3	158.7	0.33	0.67	3.3	0.00
Daunte Culpepper	Oakland Raiders	2	257.0	0.50	0.50	0.0	0.00
Philip Rivers	San Diego Chargers	4	214.8	1.00	1.25	6.0	0.00

Cutler - Cutler recorded his second 300-yard passing game of the season going 17 of 31 for 302 yards, two touchdowns and an interception against the Chicago Bears last week. He's now had back-to-back solid performances and Cutler seems to finally be coming into his own. Cutler tossed for 269 yards and a touchdown against the Raiders in Week 2, but they also picked him off twice. The Oakland pass defense with Cutler's history against it this season means he is a weak play, so only use him this week if you are in desperate need of a starter.

Croyle - Croyle had another rough outing last week against the Raiders, going 12-for-23 for 145 yards with no touchdowns and an interception. Croyle is a work in progress and is not a worthy fantasy consideration at this point. He is a weak play against the Chargers this week so keep him on the pine.

Culpepper - Culpepper's inconsistent play led to 15-of-22 passing for 170 yards and no scores. Despite earlier reports, Culpepper is expected to get the start in Week 13, delaying the quarterback JaMarcus Russell era for at least another week. Unless something drastic happens, like the Raiders seriously upgrade their passing game, it's best to stay away from Culpepper. Keep him benched against the Broncos this week.

Rivers - Rivers gave fantasy owners just what they would expect every few weeks, a productive game. Rivers had his first multiple touchdown game in four games last week, passing for 249 yards, three touchdowns and no picks. Since Rivers hasn't put two good performances together all season, and because he's facing a team that intercepted him twice in Week 4, Rivers is a weak play against Kansas City this week and should only be used as a desperation fill-in.

Running Backs

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rush Yds/G	Rush TD/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Travis Henry	Denver Broncos	1	11.00 (4.25)	0.00 (0.00)	31.0	0.00	2.00	13.0	0.00
Selvin Young	Denver Broncos	3	16.67 (19.33)	1.33 (14.28)	58.3	0.33	2.33	14.7	0.00
Andre Hall	Denver Broncos	4	10.00 (15.47)	1.75 (25.00)	49.0	0.50	0.50	17.2	0.00
Kolby Smith	Kansas City Chiefs	4	13.00 (20.73)	1.50 (25.18)	42.2	0.50	1.50	10.8	0.00
Justin Fargas	Oakland Raiders	4	26.50 (43.50)	2.75 (39.11)	96.0	0.50	3.00	21.2	0.00

Henry - Henry (knee) missed his third straight game and his status for Week 13 remains uncertain. If he does go versus the team he rushed for 128 yards against in Week 4, the Raiders, he would be a strong play as a No. 2 back. So keep a watchful eye on not only his injury status, but also his pending suspension decision.

Young - Young (knee) was a game-time scratch last week, giving way to Hall. Thanks to injuries and off-field situations, the Broncos' running back situation is messy right now, so it's hard to rely on any Denver backs this week, despite a favorable matchup against the Raiders. Young would likely get the start if Henry were unable to play, but for now consider him an injury replacement with a strong play or bench material.

Hall - Hall (ankle) got the surprising start last week for the injured Young and was able to cash in with 26 carries for 98 yards and a touchdown. He also had two catches for 69 yards. But don't get excited about Hall yet, as he suffered a high ankle sprain during that game and his status is questionable for Week 13. Plus, if Henry or Young are healthy, they'll like get the playing time over Hall. Acquire Hall and keep him on your bench until the situation sorts itself out.

Smith - Smith turned his first career start into 31 carries for 150 yards and two touchdowns last week versus the dismal Oakland run defense. If Smith hasn't been picked up in your league, do so immediately and put him to work this weekend. This week, the rookie faces San Diego, which has recovered against the running back position since letting Minnesota Vikings running back Adrian Peterson break the single-game rushing record against them in Week 9. So consider Smith a strong play, but as a No. 2 option.

Fargas - Fargas had a great day on the ground last week, piling up 139 yards and a touchdown on 22 carries. Again, backup running back LaMont Jordan didn't see much action despite scoring a goal line touchdown. Fargas should continue to reap fantasy rewards as a mid-season free agent acquisition, as he faces the mediocre Denver run defense this week. He is a solid No. 1 back in any lineup.

Wide Receivers

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Brandon Marshall	Denver Broncos	4	11.25 (17.40)	1.25 (17.85)	5.75	83.5	0.50
Javon Walker	Denver Broncos	1	0.00 (0.00)	0.00 (0.00)	0.00	0.0	0.00
Dwayne Bowe	Kansas City Chiefs	4	7.75 (12.36)	0.25 (4.20)	5.00	58.0	0.25
Ronald Curry	Oakland Raiders	4	6.25 (10.26)	1.00 (14.22)	3.75	47.8	0.00
Chris Chambers	San Diego Chargers	4	7.00 (11.19)	0.75 (10.05)	4.00	47.8	0.25

Marshall - Marshall continues to get a lot of looks, but his stats leave room for major opportunity. He's catching just a shave over 50 percent of his targets over the last four weeks, and that could be attributed to being the only real receiving threat on the team. With return of Walker, he should start seeing some more quality, but decreased, looks. Nonetheless, Marshall hopes to build of his 96-yard, one-touchdown performance of last week as he faces the tough Oakland pass defense this week. Marshall remains a No. 1 option in your lineup but is a weak play.

Walker - Walker returned to action last week, but didn't record a reception. He should provide a boost, however, to a thin Broncos' receiving corps. He could take some pressure off Marshall if they split the looks from Cutler, which would also split the attention of opposing defenses. This week against the Raiders' strong pass defense, Walker is a weak play and, at best, a No. 3 option.

Bowe - Bowe caught four passes for 63 yards last week, and is Croyle's go-to receiver, which isn't necessarily a good thing. Bowe has tremendous talent, as shown in some big performances this year, but until Kansas City can get its passing game on track, Bowe is an up and down fantasy option. Against the Chargers this week, consider Bowe as a legit No. 3 option.

Curry - Curry continues to get his looks, and he has the bulk of red zone targets among the team's receivers. Despite that, he was only able to muster 39 yards out of six catches last week. If you need an injury fill-in this week, Curry is an option; otherwise it's best leaving him on the bench against the Broncos.

Chambers - Chambers caught five passes for just 22 yards last week, but he did manage to score his second touchdown as a Charger. With Gates having a strong day, and some decent production from wide receiver Vincent Jackson, Chambers wasn't able to get more opportunities. It could be the same thing this week against Kansas City, as Chambers is a weak play as a No. 3 option or an injury replacement.

Tight Ends

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Daniel Graham	Denver Broncos	4	3.00 (4.64)	1.25 (17.85)	1.75	20.5	0.25
Tony Scheffler	Denver Broncos	4	5.25 (8.12)	0.50 (7.14)	4.50	49.2	0.25
Zach Miller	Oakland Raiders	4	4.75 (7.80)	0.75 (10.67)	3.00	29.2	0.00

Graham - Hopefully you won't need to use Graham during your playoff stretch because he probably won't get you much. Graham did not record a catch last week and it's difficult to expect much from him with Scheffler motoring along. Pick someone other than Graham for your tight end position.

Scheffler - Scheffler had his best game of the season last week with five catches for 82 yards and a touchdown. He's really come on strong since fully recovering from his preseason injury and makes for a nice late-season tight end free-agent acquisition. Oakland, his Week 13 opponent, doesn't give up much in the passing game, so Scheffler is a weak play as a low-end No. 1 tight end, but it might be wise to let him sit this one out if you have a stronger option.

Miller - Miller had an outing you can expect from him last week with four catches for 38 yards. He also had a lost fumble. There's really nothing in terms of fantasy value for Miller at this point, as owners have better options to choose from at this position. Keep this weak play on the bench.

Place Kickers

Player	Team	Gm	XP/G	XPA/G	FG/G	FGA/G	Kick Pnts/G
Jason Elam	Denver Broncos	4	3.00	3.00	1.50	1.75	7.5
John Carney	Kansas City Chiefs	--	--	--	--	--	--
Sebastian Janikowski	Oakland Raiders	4	1.25	1.25	2.50	2.75	8.8
Nate Kaeding	San Diego Chargers	4	2.00	2.00	1.75	1.75	7.2

Elam - Elam had a couple of short field goals and four extra points in last week's overtime loss to the Bears. Not a bad outing for Elam as he was perfect for a third straight week. He faces an Oakland squad this weekend that has given up an average of about six points per game the last four weeks, so you could find better options out there. Otherwise, he is a low-end No. 1 kicker.

Carney - Carney becomes Kansas City's third kicker this season, as he signed with the team this week after it released inconsistent place kicker Dave Rayner. Carney spent the majority of this season with the Jacksonville Jaguars filling in for injured kicker Josh Scobee. Carney went 9-of-11 in field goals and hit all but one of his 21 extra point tries. The missed PAT was blocked. San Diego, his Week 13 foe, has allowed an average of just 3.5 points per game to the kicker position during the last four weeks, so keep Carney on the bench.

Janikowski - Janikowski is showing signs of life late in the season as he nailed another field goal from more than 50 yards last week, converting on both field goal attempts and his extra point tries. He faces Denver in Week 13, a team that has given up the third-most kicking points per game in the last four weeks, so you'd be hard-pressed to find a better option than this strong play No. 1 kicker.

Kaeding - A big day for Kaeding last week came in the form of four made field goal attempts (three from more than 40 yards) and a pair of extra points. With the offense on track, and with a favorable matchup against the Broncos this week, Kaeding is a strong play as a No. 1 option.

Defensive Teams

Team	Gm	Off Pnts Allw/G	INT/G	Sacks/G	FR/G	DEF/ST TD/G
Denver Broncos	4	21.5	1.50	2.2	1.50	0.4
Kansas City Chiefs	4	20.2	1.00	1.5	0.25	0.0
Oakland Raiders	4	21.2	0.75	2.2	1.00	0.0
San Diego Chargers	4	22.0	1.50	1.8	1.00	0.8

Broncos - Despite the score in its 37-34 overtime loss last week, the Denver defense didn't have a horrible game, it just couldn't capitalize in the fourth quarter and overtime when it needed to the most. In total the defense gave up 293 total offensive yards and 20 points (14 were from Bears wide receiver Devin Hester's punt and kick returns for scores), while recovering three lost fumbles. A favorable matchup against Culpepper and the sputtering Raiders passing offense this week means that Denver is a strong No. 1 option and a good one-week play candidate.

Chiefs - The Chiefs couldn't hold down a lowly Oakland team last week, losing 20-17 and letting Oakland snap its 17-game AFC West losing streak that dated back to 2004. Not a good development for owners relying on the Chiefs defense. Hopefully you don't have to rely on them this week as they face a San Diego offense with strong momentum. As a result, Kansas City is a weak play for the bench.

Raiders - Despite giving up 150 rushing yards and two touchdowns to the Chiefs' rookie Smith, the Raiders defense performed solidly, holding Kansas City to 293 total offensive yards and 17 points. The Raiders' lack of a running defense is a cause for concern, though, especially when it faces the Broncos' rushing offense in Week 13. Keep Oakland as a low-end No. 1 or bench option this week.

Chargers - The San Diego defense had a nice day against the Ravens last week, holding them to 210 total offensive yards and compiling four sacks and two fumble recoveries. Facing a struggling Kansas City offense this week, the resurgent Chargers are a strong play as a solid No. 1 defense.