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AFC South Week 13 Fantasy Outlook

November 29, 2007 @ 15:29:06

By Joe Book
Edited by Herija C. Green

Note: All statistics appearing in this article are from Weeks 9-12, unless otherwise noted.

Do Not Bench List - All Positions
Quarterback Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts: As predicted, Manning rebounded with 272 yards passing and three touchdowns, all in the second quarter in Week 12. He didn't throw much in the fourth quarter, as the game was in hand for the Colts at that point. His return to normalcy should continue this week against a Jacksonville Jaguars pass defense allowing 305.5 yards per game to quarterbacks over the last month, worst in the NFL. This could be one of Manning's strongest games of the year, as his receiving corps is slowly getting healthy and the matchup is phenomenal.
Running Back Joseph Addai, Indianapolis Colts: Addai (neck) split carries with running back Kenton Keith after injuring his neck in the first half. Initial reports say that he'll be able to suit up for his Week 13 matchup with the Jaguars, but watch this situation closely. Despite only touching the ball 12 times, he still accounted for 58 yards and a touchdown. Addai is a fantasy stud if he's healthy.
Running Back Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville Jaguars: Jones-Drew struggled again, scoring on a 17-yard touchdown in garbage time to finish with 10 yards rushing. You do the math. The reason he stays on the top of the page is that he seems to find the end zone every week, no matter the situation. He is no longer the primary running option for the Jaguars, but he's the red zone workhorse. Start Jones-Drew against the Colts this week, a team he has posted two 100-yard games and four total touchdowns against in just three career meetings.
Wide Receiver Reggie Wayne, Indianapolis Colts: His five catches for 66 yards were mildly disappointing, but the second-quarter touchdown made it a complete day for one of the top fantasy receivers. Wayne is consistent, something that can't be said for some other top wide receivers. He's the top target on one of the best passing offenses in the NFL, and he should continue to anchor your receiving corps. He must be in your lineup, regardless of the matchup.

Quarterbacks

Player	Team	Gm	Pass Yds/G	Pass TD/G	INT/G	Rush Yards/G	Rush TD/G
Matt Schaub	Houston Texans	2	274.5	2.00	1.00	7.0	0.00
David Garrard	Jacksonville Jaguars	2	242.5	1.50	0.00	5.5	0.00
Vince Young	Tennessee Titans	4	229.5	0.50	1.75	39.2	0.50

Schaub - It was just an average day for Schaub, who threw for 256 yards and two touchdowns but was intercepted twice by the Cleveland Browns. The Texans had the ball for less than 25 minutes, so Schaub never was able to get into any rhythm. The return of wide receiver Andre Johnson has helped Schaub's vertical game, but the Titans feature one of the league's better pass defenses. Start Schaub this week as a low-end No. 1 quarterback.

Garrard - Garrard turned in another solid day, throwing for 296 yards and a touchdown, and again avoiding throwing his first interception of the season. That streak could end this week, as the Colts feature an aggressive pass defense that has intercepted 1.50 passes per game in the last month. He still has no top receiver or tight end, but he spreads the ball around effectively. If you must start Garrard this week, be aware that he is only a low-end No. 1 option with a weak play.

Young - Young's fantasy arm fell off against the Cincinnati Bengals, as he threw for 246 yards and turned the ball over twice. He has thrown seven interceptions in the last month, an alarming trend for a quarterback whose rushing numbers aren't spectacular. The Titans played from behind all day, but Young only carried the ball twice. He needs to be much more efficient before you consider building your fantasy team around him. He's a low-end No. 1 quarterback and a weak play this week.

Running Backs

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rush Yds/G	Rush TD/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Ahman Green	Houston Texans	1	9.00 (5.45)	2.00 (11.06)	28.0	1.00	1.00	53.0	0.00
Ron Dayne	Houston Texans	3	21.67 (39.38)	2.67 (44.22)	96.3	0.33	1.67	11.0	0.00
Fred Taylor	Jacksonville Jaguars	4	16.50 (27.27)	1.00 (10.73)	72.0	0.50	0.75	4.5	0.00
Chris Brown	Tennessee Titans	2	8.00 (6.07)	2.50 (14.16)	21.0	0.00	2.50	34.0	0.00
LenDale White	Tennessee Titans	4	16.75 (25.44)	3.00 (33.98)	45.2	0.25	1.50	6.8	0.00

Green - Houston head coach Gary Kubiak stated that there is no change in the status of Green (knee), who missed Week 12's game against the Browns. Since he hasn't played a complete game all season, there is no reason to think this will be the week. Keep him on your bench this Sunday.

Dayne - With Green's injury looking like it could end his season, Dayne has evolved into a viable fantasy option. His 78 yards rushing last week against the Browns wasn't impressive, but he only touched the ball five times in the second half. Dayne has several favorable matchups on the horizon, including this week against a Titans defense that has collapsed against the run of late. Start Dayne as a weaker No. 1 or strong No. 2 running back with a strong play this week.

Taylor - Taylor had his best game of the season in Week 12, rushing for 104 yards, including a 50-yard touchdown run in the first quarter. He again had more carries than Jones-Drew, and he has managed to stay healthy by not carrying a heavy workload. Despite his recent success, he still gets few carries in the red zone and is only a part-time running back. Don't let his recent scoring binge hide the fact that he isn't a consistent performer. Start Taylor as a low-end No. 2 running back this week and expect him to return to average numbers.

Brown - Brown had as many carries (eight) as White, but not much can be taken from the blowout loss. He simply isn't getting enough touches to warrant being used in your lineup. If White's recent struggles continue, the Titans might use Brown more on rushing downs. Until then, he's only a low-end No. 3 or injury replacement option, though he is a strong play this week.

White - Since our Week 10 report hinted at stamina issues for White, he's carried the ball only 29 times in the last three weeks and hasn't been impressive. He has looked sluggish hitting the line and isn't a receiving threat at all. White should have been able to exploit the matchup against the Bengals, but the Titans were never in the game. Treat White as a No. 3 running back this week, despite the strong play against the Texans.

Wide Receivers

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Kevin Walter	Houston Texans	3	7.67 (13.93)	0.33 (5.53)	4.00	43.0	0.33
Andre Johnson	Houston Texans	2	7.00 (8.48)	0.00 (0.00)	4.50	78.5	0.50
Marvin Harrison	Indianapolis Colts	0	0.00 (0.00)	0.00 (0.00)	0.00	0.0	0.00
Reggie Williams	Jacksonville Jaguars	4	3.75 (6.20)	0.00 (0.00)	2.50	65.5	0.75
Dennis Northcutt	Jacksonville Jaguars	4	4.50 (7.44)	0.50 (5.36)	2.50	30.0	0.25
Justin Gage	Tennessee Titans	4	7.25 (11.01)	0.50 (5.66)	4.75	69.2	0.25

Walter - With Johnson seemingly used as a decoy, Walter caught six of the nine passes targeted for him and finished with 65 yards and a touchdown. His production has been wildly inconsistent this season, especially since Johnson returned from his knee injury. He isn't a top option at the position, and is only a No. 3 receiver this week against Tennessee.

Johnson - Johnson disappeared against the Browns, catching only three passes for 37 yards. After his triumphant return in Week 11, owners expected another huge game out of the star receiver. The defenses that face the Texans over the next month don't appear to offer any help to Johnson's production, so make sure he is back to form before making him an automatic starter. He's still a low-end No. 1 receiver against the Titans this week.

Harrison - Harrison (knee) hasn't played in five weeks and shows no signs of returning to the field this week. Keep an eye on the situation but expect to look elsewhere for a receiver this week.

Williams - He's the ultimate all-or-nothing receiver, and he proved it again with a 59-yard touchdown catch in Week 12, which was his only reception of the game. He's an excellent deep threat that hasn't been utilized much, hauling in only 22 passes this year. Although he has six touchdowns, he isn't an every-week player. This week, however, he can be inserted as a decent No. 2 option versus the Colts, though he is a weak play.

Northcutt - Northcutt led the team with five catches for 65 yards as Jacksonville's spread offense benefited nobody in particular. While he hasn't followed up on his early season success, Northcutt could see more red-zone targets with injuries plaguing the Jacksonville tight ends. The Colts feature an excellent secondary, so leave Northcutt on the sidelines this week unless you are desperate for an injury replacement.

Gage - The Titans promised to get Gage more involved in the offense, and he's responded with 17 catches in the last three weeks, totaling 254 yards and a touchdown. While Young still can't be trusted to post good passing numbers, Gage has been his top target over the past month. The Texans have tightened up against the pass recently, so Gage is only a weak play as a No. 3 receiver, but that is still a vast improvement over his status six weeks ago.

Tight Ends

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Owen Daniels	Houston Texans	3	6.33 (11.51)	0.33 (5.53)	5.33	65.7	0.33
Dallas Clark	Indianapolis Colts	3	6.67 (7.50)	1.00 (6.19)	3.33	26.3	0.33
Marcedes Lewis	Jacksonville Jaguars	4	4.00 (6.61)	0.75 (8.05)	2.75	28.0	0.25
Bo Scaife	Tennessee Titans	4	7.25 (11.01)	0.75 (8.50)	4.50	38.8	0.00

Daniels - Daniels finally had his number called in the red zone, and it resulted in his first touchdown of the season. The score capped off a nice fantasy performance for Daniels, who caught seven passes for 82 yards. He has returned to form over the last two weeks, finding targets as defenses key in on Johnson. The Titans have allowed only two touchdowns to tight ends all season, so don't count on Daniels for another score. He's still a No. 1 tight end, but doesn't have a favorable matchup and is a weak play.

Clark - Clark finally got back on track, with five catches for 49 yards and a touchdown against the Atlanta Falcons last week. He looks to be fully recovered from the concussion that forced him to miss one game. As the receiving corps of the Colts gets healthy, Clark could get more looks on short routes, especially in the red zone. He's a solid No. 1 tight end this week against the Jaguars.

Lewis - With season-ending injuries to fellow tight ends George Wrighster (knee) and Greg Estandia (shoulder), Lewis suddenly finds himself in a favorable position. The three tight ends had been targeted a total of 36 times in the last month, and Lewis figures to receive most of those looks for the remainder of the season. Lewis still hasn't had a productive season, and the Colts are tough against tight ends, so leave Lewis on your bench one more week.

Scaife - He was targeted on eight plays last week, but Scaife posted average numbers, finishing with five catches for 33 yards. The Titans offense was awful against the suddenly effective Bengals defense, so Scaife can't be blamed for his poor production. The Texans have allowed 5.33 catches to the position over the last month, so look for another unspectacular day from Scaife. He's a low-end No. 1 tight end or bench candidate this Sunday.

Place Kickers

Player	Team	Gm	XPA/G	XP/G	FGA/G	FG/G	Kick Pnts/G
Kris Brown	Houston Texans	3	2.33	2.33	2.33	1.67	7.3
Adam Vinatieri	Indianapolis Colts	4	2.00	2.00	2.50	1.25	5.8
Josh Scobee	Jacksonville Jaguars	2	3.00	3.00	3.00	3.00	12.0
Rob Bironas	Tennessee Titans	4	1.25	1.25	2.00	2.00	7.2

Brown - Brown converted one of his two field goal attempts, missing from 46 yards. He hasn't been a solid performer since kicking 16 field goals in the first six weeks. Tennessee has allowed only five kicking points per game over their last four contests, which makes Brown either a weaker No. 1 option, or he should find your bench this week.

Vinatieri - One chip shot field goal and four extra points won't cut it for a fading star. Vinatieri hasn't been the same since injuring his plant leg early in the season. Jacksonville doesn't surrender many kicking points, so view Vinatieri as a weak No. 1 or even bench material this week.

Scobee - It was a career day for Scobee, as he made all five field goal attempts and three extra points. If the Jacksonville red zone offense isn't performing, Scobee could continue to benefit. Even though the Colts are stingy against kickers, Scobee must be in your lineup this week as a strong No. 1 kicker.

Bironas - You could set your watch to the two field goals that Bironas converts every week. He hasn't missed a kick since Week 5, but against a Texans club that has allowed just six points per game to opposing kickers he should be benched this Sunday.

Defensive Teams

Team	Gm	Off Pnts Allw/G	INT/G	Sacks/G	FR/G	DEF/ST TD/G
Houston Texans	3	18.0	2.00	1.0	0.33	0.0
Indianapolis Colts	4	14.5	1.50	2.0	0.75	0.4
Jacksonville Jaguars	4	19.8	1.50	1.5	0.75	0.2
Tennessee Titans	4	24.5	0.75	2.5	0.50	0.0

Texans - Houston let Cleveland run all over them, as Browns running back Jamal Lewis and tight end Kellen Winslow combined for 254 yards of offense. The good news is that Tennessee's best offensive player in the last month has been Bironas. The Texans could have a strong rebound week and should be used as a solid No. 1 defense with a strong play.

Colts - The Colts did a respectable job against Atlanta, forcing two turnovers and holding the Falcons to 250 total yards. Despite their recent success, they should find a spot on your bench this week as the Jaguars have scored 24 or more points in five consecutive games. Find another defensive option.

Jaguars - It's hard to recommend starting any defense against the Colts, but Jacksonville might be worthy of consideration this week. They've forced eight turnovers in the last three weeks, and they haven't allowed recent opponents to establish the run. Proceed with caution, but use the Jaguars as a low-end No. 1 defense if a better option doesn't present itself.

Titans - The early-season sexy defensive pick has been terrible the last three weeks. They've allowed 480 yards rushing in that time span and have only one interception since Week 9. The Texans have an inconsistent offense, but Tennessee can't be trusted until they begin to force turnovers again. Keep them on the bench.