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AFC East Week 13 Fantasy Outlook

November 29, 2007 @ 15:03:14

By Richard Garcia
Edited by Matthew Wilson

Note: All statistics appearing in this article are from Weeks 9-12, unless otherwise noted.

Do Not Bench List - All Positions

Quarterback Tom Brady, New England Patriots: It has finally been proven that Brady is human after all. He threw for only one touchdown last week against the Philadelphia Eagles, despite attempting a season-high 54 passes. Brady was able to lead the Patriots to their 11th straight victory after trailing early in the fourth quarter for just the second time this season. He has a favorable matchup this week against a Baltimore Ravens team that is allowing an average of more than 254 passing yards and two touchdowns per game to the quarterback position during the last month. Brady is obviously a must-start. Consider him a strong No. 1 option at quarterback for this week.
Running Back Marshawn Lynch, Buffalo Bills: It's still unknown whether Lynch (ankle) will return for this week's matchup against the Washington Redskins. Head coach Dick Jauron noted that Lynch has been doing some running but remains a long ways away from playing. Fantasy owners shouldn't bank on Lynch playing this week. Look for a viable replacement and stay glued to our Hot Off the Wire posts for updates on his status.
Wide Receiver Randy Moss, New England Patriots: Brady wasn't the only playmaker that got shut down in New England's clash with the Eagles last week. Moss pulled in five passes for just 43 yards and did not score a touchdown for just the second game this season. He should be quick to recover this week against the Ravens, who are allowing more than 172 yards and 1.25 touchdowns per game to the wideout position during the last four weeks. Needless to say, everyone knows that Moss is a must-start. He is a strong No. 1 option at receiver this week.
Wide Receiver Wes Welker, New England Patriots: Welker is coming off another career game after setting highs in receptions (13) and yards (149) last week against the Eagles. Just like Moss, he has a favorable matchup this week. Welker is a strong No. 1 option.
New England Patriots, Defensive Team: Despite allowing the Eagles to score 28 points last week, the Patriots were able to cause havoc for quarterback A.J. Feeley. They sacked him twice while creating three interceptions, the first of which was returned 40 yards by cornerback Asante Samuel for a touchdown. Through the last four weeks, the Patriots have been giving up 19.3 points per game while averaging a little more than two sacks and two turnovers per game during that span. New England has a strong matchup this week and should be used as a No. 1 defense.

Quarterbacks

Player	Team	Gm	Pass Yds/G	Pass TD/G	INT/G	Rush Yards/G	Rush TD/G
Trent Edwards	Buffalo Bills	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.0	0.00
John Beck	Miami Dolphins	2	120.5	0.00	0.00	5.5	0.00
Kellen Clemens	New York Jets	3	176.7	0.67	0.67	23.0	0.00

Edwards - He was officially named the starter this week, displacing quarterback J.P. Losman for the second time this season. Losman had his third straight poor outing last week, turning the ball over three times (two interceptions and one fumble) during the Bills' loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars. Edwards (wrist) has had time to heal and will make his first start since Week 9. However, keep Edwards on the bench, because he was not very productive prior to his injury.

Beck - The poor performance by the Dolphins' offense during last week's sloppy game at Heinz Field against the Pittsburgh Steelers wasn't all Beck's fault. The rookie quarterback made just his second start of the year in unfavorable conditions, completing 14 passes for 132 yards. He faces the Jets this week, who have done a good job of containing enemy quarterbacks lately. They are allowing a little more than 177 passing yards per game, which ranks fourth-best in the league through the last four weeks (three games), and one touchdown per game to the position during the same span. Beck should remain on fantasy benches until he proves to be of some value.

Clemens - Clemens didn't have such a happy Thanksgiving Day last week against the Dallas Cowboys, turning in his worst performance in three starts this season. He managed to complete just 12 passes for 142 yards and threw an interception that was returned for a touchdown by defensive back Terence Newman. Clemens will face another touch matchup this week against the Dolphins, who are allowing 153.5 passing yards and 0.5 touchdowns per game to the position during the last month (three games). Clemens has little value and is better suited for a bench designation this week.

Running Backs

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rush Yds/G	Rush TD/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Jesse Chatman	Miami Dolphins	3	24.00 (42.02)	1.67 (55.37)	71.0	0.00	2.33	8.3	0.00
Laurence Maroney	New England Patriots	3	11.00 (16.14)	1.67 (10.51)	36.3	0.67	0.00	0.0	0.00
Thomas Jones	New York Jets	3	22.00 (32.34)	2.67 (28.30)	68.7	0.00	1.67	13.3	0.00

Chatman - In what was a sloppy game from start to end, Chatman (neck) managed just 11 carries for 17 yards against the Steelers. The horrible conditions at Heinz Field, combined with a tough Pittsburgh defense, made it difficult for Chatman to run and shouldn't be a factor in determining his fantasy potential in the coming weeks. Chatman faces a favorable matchup this week against a Jets team that is allowing a little more than 179 rushing yards, 0.67 rushing touchdowns and five receptions per contest to the running back position during the last month (three games). He should be considered a top No. 2 option at running back this week. Be sure to check KFFL's Hot Off The Wire for updates on Chatman's Week 13 playing status.

Maroney - He continues to be one of the most disappointing players in fantasy this season. Although it looks like he is making some progress, carrying the ball for the Patriots isn't very productive for him or his fantasy owners. Against the Eagles last week, Maroney rushed only 10 times in a close game for 31 yards, but he scored a touchdown for the second consecutive week. Maroney faces a Ravens team that is allowing 89.2 rushing yards and 0.25 touchdowns per game to enemy runners during the last four weeks. Maroney should be considered a solid play as a low-end No. 2 or a high-end No. 3 option at running back this week.

Jones - The entire Jets' offense, including Jones, struggled against Dallas. He carried the ball 17 times for just 40 yards. This week, Jones faces a surprisingly tough matchup against the winless Dolphins. Miami is allowing a little more than 100 yards and 0.67 touchdowns per game to the running back position through the last four weeks (three games). Jones should be considered a solid No. 2 runner this week.

Wide Receivers

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Lee Evans	Buffalo Bills	4	8.75 (14.60)	0.75 (11.75)	4.75	72.3	0.25
Marty Booker	Miami Dolphins	3	6.33 (11.09)	0.00 (0.00)	2.67	29.7	0.00
Donte' Stallworth	New England Patriots	3	6.00 (8.80)	0.33 (2.10)	3.67	50.7	0.00
Laveranues Coles	New York Jets	1	3.00 (1.47)	1.00 (3.54)	1.00	56.0	0.00
Jerricho Cotchery	New York Jets	3	8.33 (12.25)	1.00 (10.61)	2.67	46.0	0.00

Evans - His numbers have gotten progressively worse during the last few weeks, cumulating with a disappointing two receptions for 19 yards last week against the Jaguars. However, Evans could see his fortunes turn around this week. He will have a favorable matchup against the banged-up Washington Redskins' secondary, which is allowing 10.25 receptions for 131.5 yards and 1.25 touchdowns per game to the wide receiver position during the last four weeks. Evans is a solid low-end No. 2 or high-end No. 3 option at receiver this week.

Booker - He emerged as the team's leading receiver last week after catching five passes for 54 yards against Pittsburgh. Booker has been relatively quiet since he took over the No. 1 job following the trade of wide receiver Chris Chambers to the San Diego Chargers. Booker likely will have another below average game this week, as he faces a Jets' defense that is allowing a little more than seven receptions for 99 yards and 0.67 touchdowns per game to the position during the last four weeks (three games). Booker should remain benched until further notice.

Stallworth - Even though he is listed as the team's No. 2 receiver, Stallworth is filling the No. 3 role while usually watching Moss and Welker receive a huge majority of the looks each week. Stallworth caught just four passes for 54 yards last week, failing to reach the end zone for the fourth consecutive game. This week, he faces a banged-up Ravens' secondary that is getting eaten alive, allowing a little more than 13 receptions for 172.2 yards and 1.25 touchdowns per game to the position during the last month. Stallworth isn't getting consistent touches and should be considered a strong play as just an injury replacement at best this week.

Coles - After missing the Thanksgiving Day matchup against Dallas, the playing status of Coles (ankle) for Week 13 is still uncertain. He practiced a little this week, but there has been no official announcement about his health. Coles owners should pay close attention to KFFL during the week for up-to-the-minute news on his status for this week's game. If he is able to go, Coles rates as a No. 3 or injury replacement option and an overall weak play.

Cotchery - Many fantasy owners had hoped that Cotchery would see a significant increase in his numbers with Coles missing time; however, he has been smothered with double-coverage that was normally reserved for Coles. Cotchery has hauled in eight passes for 138 yards in the three games that Coles has missed. This week could be another difficult matchup for Cotchery, as he faces a Dolphins team that has allowed 10 receptions for 109.3 yards and 0.33 touchdowns per game to the position during the last month (three games). Cotchery should be considered no more than an injury replacement or bench player this week and an overall weak play.

Tight Ends

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Robert Royal	Buffalo Bills	4	1.50 (2.50)	0.50 (7.84)	0.75	10.0	0.25
David Martin	Miami Dolphins	3	3.00 (5.25)	0.00 (0.00)	2.33	25.3	0.00
Benjamin Watson	New England Patriots	3	3.67 (5.38)	1.00 (6.31)	2.67	23.3	0.33
Chris Baker	New York Jets	3	6.00 (8.82)	2.00 (21.23)	3.67	37.3	0.33

Royal - He may be one of a few players that could benefit from the return of Edwards as the starter at quarterback. Through his last three games, Royal has managed just one reception for five yards, which came last week against Jacksonville. He is usually a non-factor in the offense. Although the Redskins are allowing five receptions for 50 yards and 0.50 touchdowns per game to the position during the last four weeks, keep Royal on fantasy benches.

Martin - He managed just two catches for 35 yards against the Steelers last week. This week, he faces the Jets, who are surrendering 3.67 receptions for 51.3 yards and 0.33 touchdowns per game to the position during the last four weeks (three games). Martin has no value this week and should remain on the bench.

Watson - He hasn't been the monster that he was before suffering an ankle injury in Week 6. Watson has scored just one touchdown in his last three games compared to the five that he had tallied in his first six games. Watson has a decent matchup this week against the Ravens, who are allowing four receptions for a little more than 48 yards and 0.75 touchdowns per game to the position through the last four weeks. Watson shouldn't be given up on just yet. Consider him a strong play as a low-tier No. 1 tight end.

Baker - Baker managed just three receptions for 36 yards last week against the Cowboys. He has seen an increase in receptions during the last four weeks, pulling in 12 balls during that span, which matches his total for the first six games of the season. This week, he faces the Dolphins team that is doing a good job of shutting down opposing tight ends, holding them to just 2.33 receptions for 25.3 yards and no touchdowns per game during the last four weeks (three games). Baker should be considered a weak play as a low-tier No. 1 option or a bench candidate at tight end this week.

Place Kickers

Player	Team	Gm	XP/G	XPA/G	FG/G	FGA/G	Kick Pts/G
Rian Lindell	Buffalo Bills	4	1.50	1.50	1.50	1.50	6.0
Jay Feely	Miami Dolphins	3	0.67	0.67	0.33	0.67	1.7
Stephen Gostkowski	New England Patriots	3	5.00	5.00	0.67	1.00	7.0
Mike Nugent	New York Jets	3	1.00	1.00	2.33	2.67	8.0

Lindell - The Bills have struggled on offense during the last month, which has obviously impacted the number of scoring chances that Lindell has received. He managed just two extra points last week and has just two field goal attempts during the last three games. This week, he faces a tough Redskins team that is allowing seven actual kicking points per game to the position during the last four weeks (three games). Lindell has minimal value this week and should remain on the bench.

Feely - Feely is struggling to score points, because he has not received many scoring chances in recent weeks. After coming on strong in the beginning of the season, he has scored just one point during the team's last two games and missed his only field goal attempt during that span. He has a favorable matchup this week against the Jets, a team that is allowing more than three field goal attempts and an average of 11.7 actual kicking points per game to the position during the last month (three games). Consider Feely a strong play as a marginal No. 1 place kicker this week. Bench him if you have a better option.

Gostkowski - His field goal kicking looked a little rusty last week, as he missed one of his two attempts against the Eagles. The field goal attempt that Gostkowski successfully converted was his first in two games. This week, he has an extremely favorable matchup against the Ravens, who are allowing 14.5 actual kicking points per game to the position during the last four weeks, which is the most in the league during that span. He should be started with confidence this week as a solid No. 1 kicking option.

Nugent - Nugent is another place kicker that is at the mercy of a less than productive offense. He managed just a 40-yard field goal last week, accounting for the team's lone score against the Cowboys. This week is shaping up to be another tough matchup, as the Dolphins are allowing just 1.33 field goal attempts and 3.7 actual kicking points per game to the position during the last four weeks. He should be looked at as a low No. 1 kicking option or bench play this week.

Defensive Teams

Team	Gm	Off Pts Allw/G	INT/G	Sacks/G	FR/G	DEF/ST TD/G
Buffalo Bills	3	27.8	0.25	0.5	0.26	0.0
Miami Dolphins	3	10.3	1.67	2.3	0.00	0.0
New York Jets	3	22.3	1.00	3.7	0.33	0.0

Bills - Since the team won four consecutive games, the Bills' defense has taken a step back, allowing 56 and 36 points to the Patriots and Jaguars, respectively, in their last two games. Buffalo has allowed more than 27 points and more than 373 yards per game during the last four weeks while picking up 0.5 sacks and 0.50 turnovers per game during that span. The Redskins have been allowing 2.75 turnovers per game over the last four weeks while averaging 20.5 points per game during that span. The Bills don't have much value this week and should be benched due to this weak play matchup.

Dolphins - The Dolphins have played much better during the last four weeks. Although Miami received some assistance from Mother Nature this past Monday night, they held the Steelers to just three points in an ugly 3-0 loss. The Dolphins have allowed around 10 points and 260.7 yards per game over the last month (three games) while creating 1.67 turnovers and close to two sacks per game during that span. The Jets' offense hasn't been effective during the last four weeks (three games). This unit has scored an average of 12 points while giving up three sacks and turning the ball over more than once per game during that time. The Dolphins are a low-end No. 1 option or bench play this week.

Jets - The Jets defense hasn't been terrific up to this point, but that could change this week. New York gets to take its shot at a Dolphins team that is on the verge of finishing the season 0-16. The Jets will face an anemic Dolphins' offense that is scoring a league worst 3.7 points per game during the last four weeks (three games). While the Jets are giving up a little more than 22 points and 346 yards per game, they are getting to the quarterback (3.7 sacks per game). Keep the Jets' defense on your bench this week.

Author Bio

Richard Garcia
Garcia served as a managing editor for KFFL. Prior to his time with KFFL, Richard worked in managerial roles with both Frito-Lay Inc. and UPS. He received his Bachelor of Science degree in public relations from California State Polytechnic University-Pomona and fulfilled his internship requirements with the Los Angeles Kings Hockey organization in 2001.