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AFC North Week 13 Fantasy Outlook

November 29, 2007 @ 15:17:49

By Carland B. Whitaker
Edited by Ryan Dodson

Note: All statistics appearing in this article are from Weeks 9-12, unless otherwise noted.

Do Not Bench List - All Positions

Quarterback Carson Palmer, Cincinnati Bengals: Palmer bounced back from near obscurity in Week 12 with a blistering 84 percent passing mark, three touchdown day. He threw for 283 yards but did have one of his 38 passes intercepted. For the past month he has averaged 289 passing yards and 1.75 passing touchdowns per game. During that same period, he has averaged 1.5 interceptions per game. He has done well versus the Pittsburgh Steelers and enters the contest this week as a solid No. 1 fantasy quarterback but a weak play.
Running Back Willie Parker, Pittsburgh Steelers: Parker did what Parker does in Week 12. He rushed 24 times for 81 yards but was held out of the end zone in a game whose only score, a field goal, came in the last 20 seconds of play. For the past month he has averaged 70 yards per game but zero touchdowns. The lack of scoring makes him a No. 2 fantasy running back, but he has done extremely well versus the Bengals.
Wide Receiver Chad Johnson, Cincinnati Bengals: Johnson ended his scoring drought (he had not scored since Week 2) with a 12-reception, three-touchdown, and 103-receiving-yard performance in Week 12. For the past month, largely on the strength of that one week, he has averaged 77.5 receiving yards and 0.75 touchdowns per game. That game has brought him back to a point where he can be considered a solid No. 1 fantasy wide receiver but a weak play this week. He has history versus the Steelers, but it is neither outstanding nor abysmal.
Wide Receiver T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Cincinnati Bengals: For only the second time this season, Houshmandzadeh failed to reach the end zone in Week 12. He caught seven passes for 66 yards. For the past month, he has averaged 6.25 catches, 60.8 receiving yards and 0.5 touchdowns per game. He comes into this contest as a No. 2 fantasy wide receiver but a weak play.
Wide Receiver Braylon Edwards, Cleveland Browns: Edwards caught four passes for 57 yards but scored a touchdown in Week 12. Those numbers are right in line with his averages for the past month in which he had 4.5 receptions, 56.2 yards and 0.5 touchdowns per game. He goes into Week 13 as a low No. 2 or a high No. 3 fantasy wide receiver. He is, however, a strong play versus the Arizona Cardinals.
Tight End Todd Heap, Baltimore Ravens: A potent force when he is healthy, Heap (hamstring) has been everything but healthy for the past month. He has played in only one game in the past month, having sat out again in Week 12. Again, carefully check his status before inserting him into your lineup.
Tight End Kellen Winslow, Cleveland Browns: Winslow looked like the hot prospect he was touted to be coming out of college as he caught 10 passes for 107 yards and a touchdown in Week 12. In the past month he has looked more like a wide receiver as he has averaged 7.75 receptions for 85.5 yards and 0.5 touchdowns per game. He tops the ranking as a No. 1 fantasy tight end but a weak play in Week 13.

Quarterbacks

Player	Team	Gm	Pass Yds/G	Pass TD/G	INT/G	Rush Yards/G	Rush TD/G
Kyle Boller	Baltimore Ravens	4	145.0	0.50	0.75	4.8	0.00
Derek Anderson	Cleveland Browns	4	253.5	1.25	0.75	5.5	0.25
Ben Roethlisberger	Pittsburgh Steelers	4	211.8	2.00	0.75	13.8	0.25

Boller - Boller completed 21 of his 33 passes for 191 yards and a touchdown in Week 12. He is not a good fantasy option and should remain on the fantasy bench. Versus the New England Patriots, he is a weak play.

Anderson - Anderson got back on track with his touchdown tosses as he completed 24 of his 35 passes with two touchdowns and an interception in Week 12. For the past month he has averaged 254 passing yards with 1.25 touchdowns and 0.75 interceptions per game. He continues to be a solid No. 1 fantasy quarterback in Week 13.

Roethlisberger - A scoreless game for 59 minutes, 40 seconds, did little to improve Roethlisberger's statistics for the month, and the Steelers won in Week 12 on a field goal with 20 seconds left in the game. In that almost scoreless match against the winless Miami Dolphins, Roethlisberger completed 18 of his 21 passes for a mere 165 yards. He also threw one interception. For the past month he has averaged 212 passing yards, two touchdowns and 0.75 interceptions per game. He has experience versus the Bengals and goes into that contest as a highly ranked No. 1 fantasy quarterback but a weak play.

Running Backs

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rush Yds/G	Rush TD/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Willis McGahee	Baltimore Ravens	4	19.25 (32.02)	1.00 (28.39)	67.8	1.00	2.25	12.0	0.00
Rudi Johnson	Cincinnati Bengals	4	16.75 (23.52)	4.00 (28.51)	42.5	0.25	0.75	2.5	0.00
Kenny Watson	Cincinnati Bengals	4	13.50 (18.96)	3.00 (21.38)	24.2	0.25	5.75	49.2	0.00
Jamal Lewis	Cleveland Browns	4	26.25 (37.67)	6.25 (44.28)	74.5	1.50	3.25	29.5	0.00

McGahee - McGahee dropped from the "must-start" group with a 17 carry, 59 rushing yard performance in Week 12. He did score a touchdown. He has a tough matchup (versus the torrid New England Patriots) but is a solid No. 1 fantasy running back.

Johnson - Johnson, after many weeks, has finally returned to form. He rushed 25 times for 88 yards and a long overdue touchdown (his first rushing touchdown in 2007) in Week 12. He has history versus the Steelers and can be used as a low No. 2 or high-end No. 3 fantasy running back, but he is a weak play.

Watson - Watson, it would appear, has finally been relegated back to the role he traditionally has played in the Bengals' scheme; that of a backup and change-of-pace from Johnson. He can be used as a No. 3 fantasy running back, but be aware his utilization has dropped significantly in the past month.

Lewis - Lewis enters this week as the cream of the crop of running backs in this division. He carried 29 times for 134 yards and a touchdown in Week 12. He is near the top of the rankings as a solid No. 1 fantasy running back and is a strong play versus the Cardinals.

Wide Receivers

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Derrick Mason	Baltimore Ravens	4	10.25 (17.05)	0.50 (14.20)	5.75	61.5	0.00
Mark Clayton	Baltimore Ravens	4	6.75 (11.23)	0.50 (14.20)	3.75	35.8	0.00
Joe Jurevicius	Cleveland Browns	4	6.00 (8.61)	0.50 (3.54)	4.50	62.5	0.00
Hines Ward	Pittsburgh Steelers	4	8.25 (12.77)	1.25 (12.80)	5.50	60.8	0.25
Santonio Holmes	Pittsburgh Steelers	3	5.25 (8.12)	0.50 (5.12)	4.33	79.3	1.00

Mason - Mason caught seven passes for 99 yards in Week 12. He has been a victim of an offense that has not scored a lot of receiving touchdowns. He is a strong play this week and can be used as a No. 3 wide receiver or as an injury replacement.

Clayton - Clayton is also a victim of an impotent passing game. He caught two passes for 15 yards in Week 12. Although he can be considered a strong play this week, use him as an injury replacement or else bench him.

Jurevicius - Jurevicius caught five passes for 55 yards in Week 12. He is a solid No. 3 wide receiver and a strong play this week.

Ward - Ward caught nine passes for 88 yards versus the Dolphins. He continues to have a season that is below his norm. Consider him a No. 3 fantasy wide receiver in Week 13.

Holmes - Holmes' (ankle) health is the question here. Watch carefully how that plays out. If he is healthy and can play, he will be a highly ranked No. 1 fantasy wide receiver.

Tight Ends

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Reggie Kelly	Cincinnati Bengals	3	1.75 (2.46)	0.00 (0.00)	2.00	17.7	0.00
Heath Miller	Pittsburgh Steelers	4	3.00 (4.64)	0.75 (7.68)	2.25	31.0	0.50

Kelly - Kelly caught, uncharacteristically, caught three balls for 35 yards in Week 12. He still has no fantasy value.

Miller - Miller did not record a reception in Week 12. He can be used as a No. 1 fantasy tight end, but if there are other options, you might consider benching him.

Place Kickers

Player	Team	Gm	XP/G	XPA/G	FG/G	FGA/G	Kick Pnts/G
Matt Stover	Baltimore Ravens	4	1.75	1.75	0.75	0.75	4.0
Shayne Graham	Cincinnati Bengals	4	2.75	2.75	2.25	2.50	10.2
Phil Dawson	Cleveland Browns	4	2.75	3.00	2.00	2.50	8.8
Jeff Reed	Pittsburgh Steelers	4	2.00	2.00	2.00	2.25	8.0

Stover - Stover did not even get an opportunity to attempt a field goal in Week 12. He converted two extra point attempts. He should continue to be on your bench.

Graham - Graham missed his only field goal attempt but converted on all five of his extra point tries in Week 12. Consider him a low No. 1 fantasy kicker and a weak play versus Pittsburgh.

Dawson - Dawson was perfect with two field goals and three extra points for nine kicking points in Week 12. He, too, can be considered a low No. 1 fantasy kicker.

Reed - Reed succeeding in scoring the only points in a rainy, muddy Monday night affair with a last-minute field goal. He can be used as a No. 1 fantasy kicker, or if there are options, you might consider benching him.

Defensive Teams

Team	Gm	Off Pnts Allw/G	INT/G	Sacks/G	FR/G	DEF/ST TD/G
Cincinnati Bengals	4	17.2	1.00	1.50	1.25	0.00
Cleveland Browns	4	24.0	1.50	3.00	1.00	0.25
Pittsburgh Steelers	4	12.0	0.50	3.25	1.50	0.00
Baltimore Ravens	4	29.5	0.50	1.80	0.25	0.25

Bengals - Compared to the rest of the division, the Bengals defense actually look good on paper over the past month, particularly in the offensive points allowed category. They can actually be used as a solid No. 1 fantasy defense in Week 13. And, they are a strong play.

Browns - The Browns defense has put up good numbers in the past month but has allowed 24 offensive points per game. Still, they could prove to be a good gamble in Week 13. You can use them as a No. 1 fantasy defense this week.

Steelers - The Steelers didn't allow any points in Week 12. They are a weak play and can be used as a low No. 1 fantasy defense, or you might consider benching them.

Ravens - The best option for the Ravens is to keep them on the fantasy bench.

Author Bio

Carland B. Whitaker

Carland Whitaker, a graduate journalist, is a fierce competitor of fantasy football. A former high school football coach, he brings a unique "old school" philosophy and passion for the game. Carland has been a KFFL contributor since 2004.