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Z - Impact AnalysisWill Cordero's Fantasy Value Dip Into the Red?
By Whit Benson In a busy Cincinnati Reds offseason, the biggest splash was made last weekend when the Reds signed righthanded closer Francisco Cordero to a four-year, $46 million contract, easily making him the biggest free agent signing in team history. So far, the Reds have hired manager Dusty Baker (three years, $10 million) to right the ship on a team that has seemingly been in-between managers for the last decade. They also picked up club options on outfielder Adam Dunn, first baseman Scott Hatteberg and catcher Javier Valentin. The Reds outbid the Houston Astros and Milwaukee Brewers (Cordero's 2007 team) for Cordero's services and proved to their fans that they are ready to shake the "small-market" stigma that has been attached to them for so long. Change of SceneryCordero ranked third in all of baseball last year with 44 saves and was arguably the best closer available via free agency, with only New York Yankees closer Mariano Rivera also vying for that title. Cordero struck out 12.3 batters per nine innings last season, and the league batted only .218 against him with a woeful OPS of .588. Cordero possesses a two seam fastball with good movement that reaches the mid-90s, but it is the improved command of his hard slider that has helped him make the ascension from above-average reliever to dominant closer. While he has never necessarily had a "bad" season, he has gotten better nearly every year in the big leagues; this played a big role in persuading the Reds to give Cordero a four-year deal despite him being 32 years old. The Reds last season blew 29 save chances, trailing only the Colorado Rockies for most in the majors, so Cordero's 86 percent figure in save chances would figure to immediately make them 10-15 games better. With that in mind, one would be hard-pressed to find a free agent in this year's class that will have a bigger impact on his new team. While the consensus is that the Reds overpaid for Cordero, they had to. Great American Fly Ball ParkEven with the tremendous upside Cordero possesses, there are definitely some genuine concerns that Reds fans and fantasy owners need to be aware of. Most importantly, he sports a 1.08 groundball-to-flyball ratio for his career, which is not great for a closer. This would not be a big concern at most ballparks, but at Great American Ball Park, routine pop-ups have been known to leave the yard. Cordero only gave up four home runs in 63.1 innings last year, and that number could go up in 2008. Cordero had a fantastic ERA at home last year of 1.09, but on the road it inflated to a whopping 6.55. Upon further analysis, however, this difference can be attributed more to three blow-up outings he had on the road rather than an overwhelming affinity for the Miller Park mound. If those games are removed from consideration, his ERA was less than 3.00 in his other 21 road appearances. His ERA was better on the road than at home in each year from 2004 to 2006. One other concern is that Cordero has just secured himself financially for the rest of his life, and may lose some of the drive and desire that got him to this point. This "complacency factor" theoretically shouldn't affect closers as much as other players though, because they are not called upon to give maximum effort 162 times a year. Fantasy SpinWhen it comes to the fantasy value of a closer, team owners know that half of the value is the pitcher's makeup and the other half is the capability of the team around him to get him the ball in the ninth inning. Even Boston Red Sox stud closer Jonathan Papelbon would waste away into fantasy oblivion if he were a Pittsburgh Pirate. The Reds have a lineup that appears to be one of the best in the National League with excellent hitters all across the diamond. On the mound, righthander Aaron Harang is a legitimate ace and Bronson Arroyo is certainly serviceable. But the rest of the rotation is in flux. Righthanded pitcher Homer Bailey and Johnny Cueto (the top two pitching prospects in the organization) could provide stability on the back end, along with right-hander Matt Belisle, who finished 2007 strongly and figures to improve. Lefthander Bobby Livingston could also be in the rotation mix. The league's worst bullpen will instantly be upgraded by this acquisition in more ways than one as it will allow David Weathers and Jared Burton (the Reds' best two returning relievers) to ease back into more familiar setup roles. The best thing about owning Cordero might be the fact that his team will be playing over half its games versus the anemic National League Central, which figures to be just as bad as it was in 2007. Anywhere from 84-90 wins will more than likely win the division, and the Reds have another component to work towards that goal. Early 2008 OutlookLook for Cordero to get ample save opportunities as a result, thus increasing his value more than most fantasy owners will give him credit for. He is definitely among the upper echelon of closers and could be ranked behind a handful on pitchers with any confidence, namely Seattle Mariners closer J.J. Putz, Los Angeles Dodgers closer Takashi Saito, Minnesota Twins closer Joe Nathan and Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim closer Francisco Rodriguez. Although it's difficult to project exactly where Cordero will be taken in most 2008 fantasy drafts, he certainly must be considered a top-eight closer overall and should be drafted between the fifth and seventh rounds accordingly in 12-team leagues. Most might envision his move from a 2007 playoff competitor to a 2007 last-place team, but in reality, the Reds appear to be every bit as good as the Brewers on paper and outplayed them by five and a half games over the final three months of the season. Look for Cordero to prolong his annual improvement curve in 2008, but the hitter-friendly ballpark he will be playing in for half the year might negate any expected improvement on his ERA and WHIP. Cordero should end up with very similar numbers as he did in '07, with a sub-3.00 ERA, a WHIP around 1.15, 85-95 strikeouts and 40-45 saves. |
