Rivera Re-signs with Yanks

November 21, 2007 @ 03:12:56

By Steven Kraser
Edited by Ryan Dodson

With all the talk of a mass exodus of Yankees leaving the team this offseason, New York has done a very good job off the bat in retaining its key free agents. Closer Mariano Rivera is the latest one to sign - as he notified the team on Nov. 19 that he accepted the three-year, $45 million offer presented to him. Although other new deals with third baseman Alex Rodriguez and catcher Jorge Posada have also not been officially announced, the Yankees have apparently keep its veteran core of players intact. That is welcome news for new Yankee manager Joe Girardi, as he begins the process of trying to get New York back to the World Series after taking over for the ever-popular Joe Torre.

THE GAME PLAN

Rivera, who will turn 38 on Nov. 29, rebounded last season from the back and elbow problems that plagued him in 2006.

Although he put up the highest ERA (3.15) and WHIP (1.12) of his career in 2007, Rivera was caught up in having limited save opportunities during the first one-third of the season. As the Yankees came out of the gate and struggled to a 21-29 record, there were too many games in which the team's starting pitching put the Yankees way behind, and thus Rivera continued to sit in the bullpen. Posting the lowest number of saves (30) since his injury-shortened 2002 season, Rivera looks to have significantly more save opportunities in 2008. Here's how Rivera fared on the mound during the past three seasons:

Table: Mariano Rivera's Statistics (2005-2007)

Year	Team	W	L	ERA	WHIP	G	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	SV	HLD	BLSV
2005	NYY	7	4	1.38	0.87	71	214.1	50	18	12	2	18	80	43	0	4
2006	NYY	5	5	1.80	0.96	63	211.1	61	16	15	3	11	55	34	0	3
2007	NYY	3	4	3.15	1.12	67	113.1	68	25	25	4	12	74	30	0	4

With Rivera now back in fold, perhaps the biggest impact on the Yankees' pitching staff is the opportunity to move 2007 rookie phenom relief pitcher Joba Chamberlain into the 2008 starting rotation. Of course, that will only happen if New York can find effective options in the relief corps to "bridge" the gap between the starting pitchers and Rivera. Another one of the team's own free agents, relief pitcher Luis Vizcaino, had an up-and-down year last season setting up Rivera; with Chamberlain eventually taking over that role. The Yankees have discussed re-signing Vizcaino, as well as looking into signing free agent relief pitcher available, Ron Mahay. If they can accomplish those two signings, plus convince starting pitcher Andy Pettitte to hold off on retirement, moving Chamberlain to the rotation will be almost a certainty.

CONCLUSION

Rivera, when called upon at a steady pace, still has an effective cutting fastball and impeccable control to remain among the elite group of closers. In 2007, he posted the highest strikeouts-per-nine-innings ratio (9.34) during his tenure as a closer. With a most likely healthier starting staff (at least at the onset of the season) and a potent lineup in 2008, Rivera is expected to get more of a steady dose of save opportunities.

BOTTOM LINE

With negative fallout over Torre's departure, the Yankees, as with Posada, probably paid Rivera more for his past accomplishments than any future performances; and spin some positive press. That being said, there is maybe only one other closer (Boston Red Sox closer Jonathan Papelbon comes to mind) you would consider to be on the on the mound instead of Rivera; and Papelbon still needs to consistently do it in huge playoff situations.

Rivera still gives fantasy owners minimal to moderate risk with moderate to high reward potential. Increased workload seems to work in Rivera's favor, so durability should not be a critical issue. There is no reason that he can not get back to the 40-save and 2.50 ERA ranges; and lower his WHIP to the 1.00 level. Look to draft Rivera around rounds five or six as he is still among the top closers.

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Steven Kraser

Steven Kraser is a management consultant for the sports management and entertainment business. He has consulted for professional and college franchises, leagues and news agencies in the areas of strategy, finance, and business operations. He has been a KFFL Contributor since 2003.

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