Fantasy Football and NFL News, Rumors and Injury Updates

Strong Plays, Weak Plays - Week 12

November 21, 2007 @ 14:22:47

By Richard Garcia
Edited by Herija C. Green

Welcome to another year of KFFL's "Strong Plays, Weak Plays" feature. Here, we'll identify strong matchups of interest that you can exploit as well as determine a few weak matchups in which you might want to consider benching your normal starter in favor of a backup. Our intention is not to tell you the obvious, such as "Start LaDainian Tomlinson!" or "Start Peyton Manning!" Instead, it is to point out some matchups involving players who aren't considered fantasy stars. Of course, we'll sometimes highlight a top fantasy player's matchup if it is an especially noteworthy strong or weak play.

Important, Please Read! Remember, just because a player has a strong-play matchup does not mean that it is an automatic endorsement as a starter. It does provide you with some valuable information to make decisions, though. As an example, some players with the "Strong Play" tag may still be a No. 4 fantasy wideout and shouldn't be started ahead of your normal starters. He just may have greater potential than normal but not enough to warrant a definite benching of someone else for him. Conversely, if a player is on the "Weak Play" list, he may not be an automatic bench, either. A stud won't have an easy matchup every week. However, he's a stud because he can overcome the weak-play situation.

Quarterbacks - Strong Plays

David Garrard, Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Buffalo Bills

Matchup	Games	Pass Yards/G	Pass TDs/G	INTs/G	Rush Yards/G	Rush TD/G
Garrard	1	189.0	2.00	0.00	4.0	0.00
Bills vs. Pos.	4	239.5	1.75	0.75	9.0	0.25

Garrard completed 15-of-24 passes for 189 yards and two touchdowns in his first start since suffering an ankle injury back in Week 7. When healthy he is as consistent a quarterback as there is, having yet to throw an interception and losing only one fumble this season.

He faces a Buffalo Bills team this week that is trying to recover from the dismantling New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady provided last week. The Bills defense had shown improvement until last week and the numbers in the table above are clearly a little skewed courtesy of the beating they suffered last week. Despite that, Garrard has a strong play matchup and should be considered a mid-tier No. 1 option at quarterback this week.

Running Backs - Strong Plays

Kolby Smith, Kansas City Chiefs vs. Oakland Raiders

Matchup	Games	Rush Yards/G	Rush TD/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TDs/G
Smith	3	6.3	0.00	1.67	13.7	0.00
Raiders vs. Pos.	4	150.2	1.75	3.25	39.0	0.00

The bodies have quickly begun to pile on in the Chiefs backfield. Running back Priest Holmes (neck) officially announced his retirement this week, just a little more than two weeks after running back Larry Johnson (foot) suffered a foot injury that is expected to force him to miss his third consecutive game this Sunday. Smith is expected to take over the starting role and his first start couldn't come against a better opponent.

The Raiders defense is miserable at stopping the run, and Smith will likely need all the help he can get after not starting this season or even last season at Louisville. He has a strong play matchup this week and is worth acquiring immediately if you're in need at the position.

Reuben Droughns, New York Giants vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup	Games	Rush Yards/G	Rush TD/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TDs/G
Droughns	3	16.0	0.33	1.33	10.3	0.00
Vikings vs. Pos.	4	66.8	0.75	8.25	56.2	0.25

With the availability of running back Brandon Jacobs (hamstring) uncertain, Droughns finds himself waiting in the wings heading into Week 12. Droughns hasn't had many opportunities to carry a full load this season with the team, being mostly relegated to spot duty and goal line work. He currently leads the team in rushing touchdowns and is expected to get the start if Jacobs is unavailable for this week.

He would face a tough Vikings defense that is strong against the run. However, they have been vulnerable in the receiving game from the running back position while allowing close to a touchdown per game average through the last four weeks. Keep a close eye on the status of not only Jacobs, but also running backs Derrick Ward (ankle); his status as a No. 3 back this week is contingent upon their ability to play.

Wide Receivers - Strong Plays

Lee Evans, Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars

Matchup	Games	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TDs/G
Evans	4	5.50	102.0	0.50
Jaguars vs. Pos.	4	15.00	204.5	1.00

Evans has had an up-and-down season to this point, finishing the last two weeks on the down. He struggled early this season and seemed to turn it around in Weeks 8 and 9, but the last two weeks have left the receiver with a combined eight receptions for 105 yards and zero touchdowns.

Despite his inconsistent play, his matchup this week is too good to overlook as the Jaguars are allowing big numbers to the position over the last four weeks. Evans should be started with confidence as a No. 1 receiver this week.

D.J. Hackett, Seattle Seahawks at St. Louis Rams

Matchup	Games	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TDs/G
Hackett	3	7.67	98.3	1.00
Rams vs. Pos.	3	13.00	184.3	0.67

The Seahawks have been true to their word up to this point using the passing game as their main point of attack. Quarterback Matt Hasselbeck has attempted more than 40 pass attempts each of the last two weeks and Hackett has been one of the main beneficiaries, catching 17 balls for 237 yards and two touchdowns.

He faces a Rams defense that has allowed opposing receivers to run wild and with the offense throwing the ball so often owners could expect another strong performance from Hackett. He should be started as a quality No. 1 receiver this week.

Chris Chambers, San Diego Chargers vs. Baltimore Ravens

Matchup	Games	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TDs/G
Chambers	4	3.25	51.0	0.25
Ravens vs. Pos.	3	13.67	196.7	1.33

Chambers hasn't produced as well as fantasy owners had hoped since making the move from the Miami Dolphins, but there could be a ray of hope coming over the horizon. After coming off one of his best games as a member of the Chargers last week where he hauled in four catches for 93 yards, he faces a Ravens team that has had their issues, particularly stopping opposing wide receivers.

The Ravens have struggled defensively and the passing game is where they have been he most vulnerable. Chambers should be considered a No. 3 option at receiver or injury replacement.

Tight Ends - Strong Plays

Donald Lee, Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions

Matchup	Games	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TDs/G
Lee	4	4.00	47.0	0.75
Lions vs. Pos.	4	7.00	68.0	0.75

Lee has been on a tear since signing a contract extension earlier this month and without having to battle fellow tight end Bubba Franks (knee) for looks from quarterback Brett Favre. Last week he caught five balls for 49 yards and two touchdowns and could look to have another thankful performance against the tight end friendly Lions.

The Lions have struggled to stop the tight end position over the last four weeks and rank in the bottom-three of the league in receptions, receiving yards and touchdowns allowed to the position during that span. Favre loves to utilize his tight ends, which makes Lee a solid No. 1 option this week.

Place Kickers - Strong Plays

Josh Brown, Seattle Seahawks at St. Louis Rams

Matchup	Games	FGA/G	FG/G	XPA/G	XP/G	Pts/Game
Brown	3	3.00	2.33	3.00	3.00	10.0
Rams vs. Pos.	3	1.67	1.67	1.33	1.33	6.3

Brown continues to get opportunities in the high flying Seahawks offense. He scored 12 kicking points last week against the Chicago Bears and is averaging 10 kicking points scored per game since Week 8 (three games played), which leads the league during that time.

The Rams defense hasn't surrendered many kicking points during the last month. However, that is misleading due to some favorable matchups. The Seahawks offense seems to be hitting on all cylinders and could create more opportunities for Brown inside the Edward Jones Dome. He should be started with confidence as a No. 1 kicking option this week.

Team Defenses - Strong Plays

Arizona Cardinals vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup	Games	Pts/G	Yds/G	Sacks/G	Ints/G	Fum/G
Cardinals Def.	3	19.7	330.3	2.7	2.00	1.33
49ers Off.	4	8.8	232.0	2.5	1.25	1.00

The Cardinals are coming off a breakout game from a fantasy perspective returning two interceptions for touchdowns last week. The team has been opportunistic of late, generating impressive sack and forced turnover numbers during the last four weeks.

They face a 49ers offense this week that is in shambles. They scored just nine points, amassed 244 net yards, allowed three sacks and threw two interceptions against a porous Rams defense a week ago. Arizona's defense might be available for a one-week play and should be considered a top-tier No. 1 defense this week.

Quarterbacks - Weak Plays

Marc Bulger, St. Louis Rams vs. Seattle Seahawks

Matchup	Games	Pass Yards/G	Pass TDs/G	INTs/G	Rush Yards/G	Rush TD/G
Bulger	3	255.7	1.33	0.33	-0.7	0.00
Seahawks vs. Pos.	3	248.0	0.00	0.33	13.3	0.00

Bulger managed to lead the Rams to back-to-back wins for the first time this season despite throwing for 155 yards and one touchdown against the 49ers. He faces the Seahawks this week, which held him to 255 yards passing and no touchdowns in their last meeting while forcing him to turn the ball over six times; three interceptions and three fumbles.

The Seahawks have a much tougher defense than the 49ers. They are allowing 248 yards passing through the last four weeks and haven't allowed a touchdown pass since New Orleans Saints quarterback Drew Brees threw for two in Week 6. With all things considered, Bulger remains a low tier No. 1 option at quarterback due to his weak play matchup.

Running Backs - Weak Plays

Chester Taylor, Minnesota Vikings at New York Giants

Matchup	Games	Rush Yards/G	Rush TD/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TDs/G
Taylor	4	70.0	1.00	2.00	34.5	0.00
Giants vs. Pos.	3	68.3	0.00	3.33	10.7	0.00

Taylor had Vikings fans seeing double last Sunday after filling in for injured running back Adrian Peterson (knee). He managed to put up more than 200 total yards and found the end zone three times against a suspect Oakland Raiders team.

This week's matchup could be more of a challenge for Taylor and for the offense as a whole. The Giants are allowing well less than 100 total yards per game to the position and haven't surrendered a touchdown against since Week 6. With that said the Vikings offensive line has proven that they are for real and that either back that runs behind them can be successful. Taylor should be looked at as a No. 1 back this week, but fantasy owners shouldn't expect a repeat performance from last Sunday.

Jesse Chatman, Miami Dolphins at Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup	Games	Rush Yards/G	Rush TD/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TDs/G
Chatman	3	91.7	0.00	3.00	16.7	0.00
Steelers vs. Pos.	4	78.5	0.25	4.00	21.8	0.25

Chatman has been a pleasant stop-gap for the running game after running back Ronnie Brown (knee) was placed on Injured Reserve following a knee injury in Week 7. He has averaged more than 100 total yards in two of his last three games and is missing only a touchdown during that time to add to his impressive play.

He faces a tough Steelers defense that has shut down opposing backs allowing only two rushing touchdowns over the last month. New York Jets running back Thomas Jones found a chink in the armor last week rushing for more than 100 yards, which made him the first back to do so in 34 straight games against the Steelers. Chatman should be considered a moderate No. 1 or solid No. 2 running back option this week.

Wide Receivers - Weak Plays

Santana Moss, Washington Redskins vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Matchup	Games	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TDs/G
Moss	3	6.33	70.3	0.33
Buccaneers vs. Pos.	3	9.67	118.0	0.67

Moss was a pleasant surprise for fantasy owners that have held on to him all this time. He caught nine passes for 121 yards and a score after being a non-factor in the offense for virtually the entire season. If he can keep this up it could help to clear his reputation as a fantasy bust, but this week could prove difficult to continue on his past success.

The Buccaneers defense isn't receiver friendly this season, and with Moss failing to be a consistent producer in the passing game, it could make for another sub-par game for him. He has minimal value this week and should be considered a moderate No. 2 or solid No. 3 wideout.

Dwayne Bowe, Kansas City Chiefs vs. Oakland Raiders

Matchup	Games	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TDs/G
Bowe	3	5.33	56.3	0.33
Raiders vs. Pos.	4	6.75	96.2	0.50

Bowe didn't seem to skip a beat last week, and in fact, picked it up a step with quarterback Brodie Croyle under center. He managed to haul in seven receptions for 64 yards and his first touchdown since Week 4.

The Raiders defense has been good in one area and that is stopping wide receivers from having big days against them. The Chiefs offense doesn't have many quality receivers leaving Bowe as the target for defensive backs to key on. He shouldn't be counted on for another big day and should be considered no better than a moderate No. 2 or respectable No. 3 option at receiver this week.

Calvin Johnson, Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers

Matchup	Games	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TDs/G
Johnson	4	2.75	43.2	0.25
Packers vs. Pos.	4	9.00	126.8	0.25

Johnson caught his first touchdown pass since Week 2 last week, pulling in three receptions for 45 yards. He has been slowed a little this season between learning the mad scientist's playbook and suffering a back injury. He has all the tools to be a big-play threat in any game but the overcrowded receiving corps has left him in the background for the majority of the season.

This week he faces a physical matchup against a Packers secondary that is allowing single-digit receptions per game and only one touchdown to the position over the last four weeks. Johnson should be considered no better than a No. 3 option at receiver or as an injury replacement.

Tight Ends - Weak Plays

Tony Gonzalez, Kansas City Chiefs vs. Oakland Raiders

Matchup	Games	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TDs/G
Gonzalez	3	5.67	61.3	0.33
Raiders vs. Pos.	4	3.00	47.0	0.00

We cautioned fantasy owners last week that Gonzalez might have a quiet game against the Indianapolis Colts with Croyle getting the start. He caught four balls for 46 yards while failing to get a sniff of the end zone.

Just like with Bowe listed above, the Raiders are shutting down any option teams have thrown at them in the passing game. Since Week 8, they are ranked in the top 10 in fewest receptions and scores allowed to the tight end position. Gonzalez remains a must start even with a weak play matchup this week.

Place Kickers - Weak Plays

David Akers, Philadelphia Eagles at New England Patriots

Matchup	Games	FGA/G	FG/G	XPA/G	XP/G	Pts/Game
Akers	4	1.75	1.25	2.25	2.25	6.0
Patriots vs. Pos.	3	1.33	1.00	1.33	1.33	4.3

Akers hasn't been given many opportunities over the last four weeks in the kicking game, and when he has, he continues to be unreliable. He has failed to put up double-digit point totals since Week 8 and with the possible loss of quarterback Donovan McNabb (ankle, thumb) this week, his value continues to plummet.

This week he faces a Patriots defense that is allowing just 4.3 points per game to the position over the last four weeks. The Patriots offense is playing so well that teams are finding themselves behind early and being forced to eliminate the field goal as a means to get back in the game. We are expecting much of the same this week leaving Akers to ride the pine until further notice.

Team Defenses - Weak Plays

Washington Redskins at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Matchup	Games	Pts/G	Yds/G	Sacks/G	Ints/G	Fum/G
Redskins Def.	4	30.2	390.5	1.8	0.25	1.00
Buccaneers Off.	3	21.7	346.7	2.0	1.00	0.67

The Redskins looked to have had a formidable defense at the beginning of the year but have begun to slip down the rankings over the past four weeks. They have given up large amounts of points and yardage while watching their sacks and forced turnover numbers drop.

The Buccaneers have been playing well at home and have posted slightly better than average yardage and point totals during the last four weeks (three games played). While the Bucs have had trouble at times with pass protection and turnovers, the Redskins defense has been so poor at capitalizing and creating opportunities that they should be left on the bench this week.

Author Bio

Richard Garcia
Garcia served as a managing editor for KFFL. Prior to his time with KFFL, Richard worked in managerial roles with both Frito-Lay Inc. and UPS. He received his Bachelor of Science degree in public relations from California State Polytechnic University-Pomona and fulfilled his internship requirements with the Los Angeles Kings Hockey organization in 2001.