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AFC West Fantasy Outlook

November 21, 2007 @ 13:48:07

By Ken Jager
Edited by Herija C. Green

Note: All statistics appearing in this article are from Weeks 8-11, unless otherwise noted.

Do Not Bench List - All Positions

Running Back Larry Johnson, Kansas City Chiefs: Johnson (foot) is expected to miss Week 12 with his mysterious foot injury, so look for running back Kolby Smith to get the start in his absence.
Running Back LaDainian Tomlinson, San Diego Chargers: Tomlinson was able to work around a tough run defense in Week 11, compiling 155 total yards (62 rushing, 93 receiving) and one rushing touchdown. Despite those numbers, Tomlinson has only 70 carries the last four games, the third-fewest for that span in his career. His dual-threat ability keeps him as a No. 1 running back, but his Week 12 opponent, the Baltimore Ravens' strong run defense, makes him a weak play.
Tight End Antonio Gates, San Diego Chargers: Gates delivered a solid performance last week with four catches resulting in 54 yards and a touchdown. It was good to see Gates find the end zone in the game, his first in three games, but his numbers aren't at fantasy stud levels during that span. The Ravens defense doesn't offer relief in Week 12 either, as it is allowing just 29.7 yards and 0.33 touchdowns per game to tight ends during the last four weeks. Gates is still a top fantasy tight end, but it could be another slow day as he is a weak play.
Tight End Tony Gonzalez, Kansas City Chiefs: As the Chiefs offense continues to sputter, so does Gonzalez's fantasy numbers. In his second straight lackluster game, he collected just four passes for 46 yards without a touchdown. Week 12's match up against the Oakland Raiders means that Gonzalez is a weak play, but as a veteran presence for young quarterback Brodie Croyle, he should still get his looks. Keep Gonzalez motoring in your lineup.

Quarterbacks

Player	Team	Gm	Pass Yds/G	Pass TD/G	INT/G	Rush Yards/G	Rush TD/G
Jay Cutler	Denver Broncos	4	169.0	1.00	0.25	8.8	0.00
Brodie Croyle	Kansas City Chiefs	2	165.5	0.50	0.50	0.0	0.00
Daunte Culpepper	Oakland Raiders	2	255.5	0.50	1.00	4.5	0.00
Philip Rivers	San Diego Chargers	4	185.0	1.00	1.25	6.5	0.00

Cutler - Cutler posted one of his best performances of the season last Monday night against the Tennessee Titans with 16-for-21 passing for 200 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions (137.0 rating). This could be a good sign for owners as Cutler was able to succeed against one of the league's best pass defenses. He again is a weak play against the Chicago Bears this week and a safe play for the bench, but if he stays on this course, Cutler could be a bargain asset down the stretch.

Croyle - Croyle turned in an efficient first start (19-for-27, 169 yards, one touchdown, no interceptions), but it wasn't enough to stop Kansas City's losing streak against the Indianapolis Colts. Croyle and his Chiefs face another stiff pass defense this week in Oakland. The Raiders defense has given up just 158.2 yards and 0.50 touchdowns to the quarterback position in its last four games. Croyle is a weak play and should be benched as a result.

Culpepper - The revolving door that is the Oakland starting quarterback opened for Culpepper last week after quarterback Josh McCown (quadriceps) sat out with an injury. Culpepper threw for 344 yards with a touchdown and one interception, which are likely inflated numbers against a terrible Minnesota Vikings pass defense coupled with the motivation of playing against his former team. Either he or McCown are expected to get the call this week versus the Chiefs, but rookie quarterback JaMarcus Russell continues to loom. Stay away from this quarterback trap this week.

Rivers - Rivers tossed a season-high 309 yards on 22-for-40 passing and a touchdown last week, but he also threw two interceptions, including the game-sealing toss to Jacksonville Jaguars safety Sammy Knight. Rivers now has 12 interceptions on the season, compared to just 11 touchdowns. He could get an opportunity to tilt that scale the other direction against the soft Baltimore pass defense (256.0 yards, 1.67 touchdowns per game over the past month) this week. Being wary of his inconsistency, Rivers is a strong play as a low-end No. 1 or bench option.

Running Backs

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rush Yds/G	Rush TD/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Travis Henry	Denver Broncos	1	11.00 (4.52)	0.00 (0.00)	31.0	0.00	2.00	13.0	0.00
Selvin Young	Denver Broncos	4	18.50 (30.38)	2.00 (32.13)	61.5	0.25	3.25	23.2	0.00
Priest Holmes	Kansas City Chiefs	3	17.00 (26.87)	1.00 (27.25)	42.7	0.00	1.33	7.7	0.00
Kolby Smith	Kansas City Chiefs	3	5.67 (8.96)	0.00 (0.00)	6.3	0.00	1.67	13.7	0.00
Justin Fargas	Oakland Raiders	4	24.25 (37.95)	1.75 (33.21)	76.5	0.25	3.25	25.8	0.00

Henry - Henry (knee) sat inactive for a second straight game last week. His status for Week 12 remains in a pit of uncertainty with his knee injury and the pending outcome of this past Friday's substance abuse hearing with the NFL. Watch for updates this week, but he's probably not worth taking a chance on as he would likely be limited if he plays against the Bears.

Young - Young (knee) struggled against the Titans run defense Monday night with 14 carries for 54 yards and no scores. Regardless, if Henry were to be suspended, Young would likely remain the team's feature back with running back Andre Hall backing him up. Watch for updates on Henry's status, but Young is worthy of a No. 2 or 3 option this week versus the Bears.

Holmes - Holmes (neck) sustained a neck injury in Week 11 and announced his retirement this week. An unfortunate development for one of the classiest and hard working players the league has ever seen. Good luck, Priest, on a speedy recovery.

Smith - By default, Smith looks to be the Chiefs' new starting tailback and should be acquired immediately. As the team's only healthy tailback left on the roster, he should get his touches in Week 12, but his lack of experience makes him a wild card at best. A favorable matchup against the Raiders this week means that Smith could play as a solid No. 3 option, but remember that he's still a rookie with only 10 career carries under his belt.

Fargas - Fargas had difficulty getting his legs motoring through the tough Minnesota run defense, turning 22 carries into just 60 yards (2.7 yards per carry). He also had three receptions for 29 yards. As the team's primary running back, he should see slightly better numbers this week against a decent Kansas City run defense and is a safe play as a low-end No. 1 option.

Wide Receivers

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Brandon Marshall	Denver Broncos	4	10.50 (17.24)	1.00 (16.07)	5.50	77.8	0.25
Dwayne Bowe	Kansas City Chiefs	3	8.00 (12.64)	0.33 (9.08)	5.33	56.3	0.33
Ronald Curry	Oakland Raiders	4	5.75 (9.00)	0.75 (14.23)	3.00	49.2	0.00
Jerry Porter	Oakland Raiders	4	7.75 (12.13)	0.25 (4.74)	3.75	52.8	0.00
Chris Chambers	San Diego Chargers	4	6.50 (12.44)	0.75 (10.74)	3.25	51.0	0.25

Marshall - Marshall collected four passes for 56 yards, including a 41-yard touchdown, this past Monday night. Aside from the touchdown, he really didn't do much to speak of during the game. Despite the number of looks he receives, Marshall is still averaging just 5.5 catches per game during the last four weeks. Not great, but not horrible. Even with the pending return of wide receiver Javon Walker (knee), Marshall is a good No. 2 play this week in Chicago.

Bowe - Despite a slow offensive game in Week 11 for the Chiefs, Bowe collected seven passes for 64 yards and the team's lone touchdown. Bowe appears to have instant chemistry with Croyle and that bodes well for Bowe owners. For Week 12, he faces a tough Oakland defense that has given up just 6.75 receptions for 96.2 yards and 0.50 touchdowns per game during the last four weeks. It's tough to imagine that will change this week and Bowe is a weak play as a No. 2 or No. 3 option.

Curry - Despite his four-catch, 120-yard performance in Week 11, Curry's overall utilization is steadily dropping over recent weeks, as Porter now has the slight edge it both utilization and production. He is still worthy of fantasy consideration this week versus Kansas City, but only as an injury sub. His status could change again if and when Russell takes the field.

Porter - Porter has regained his spot as the receiver of choice in recent weeks, but only slightly. But that doesn't mean much with this sluggish Raiders offense. Despite some slightly better numbers, Porter is better off on the bench this week unless you need an emergency fill-in.

Chambers - Right on cue, Chambers received the third-most looks (eight) in Week 11 behind Tomlinson (22) and Gates (nine). He converted four of those into receptions for 94 yards in the loss. The troubling stat for Chambers is his one touchdown this season, which came in his first game with the team in Week 8. Chambers faces a good, but struggling Ravens defense this week and is a strong play as a No. 3 or emergency fill-in option.

Tight Ends

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Daniel Graham	Denver Broncos	4	3.75 (6.16)	0.75 (12.05)	2.25	25.5	0.25
Tony Scheffler	Denver Broncos	4	5.25 (8.62)	0.50 (8.03)	4.00	35.8	0.25
Zach Miller	Oakland Raiders	4	4.25 (6.65)	0.75 (14.23)	2.50	24.5	0.00

Graham - In what is becoming a familiar line in his stat book, Graham collected two passes for 20 yards in Week 11. This week he is a weak play against a Bears defense that has given up just 34.7 yards and no touchdowns per game to the position the last four weeks. He is a desperation No. 1 play, but one that should definitely be left on your bench if at all feasible.

Scheffler - If you needed a fantasy tight end from the Broncos on your roster, Scheffler has been your guy. But hopefully you're not relying on him heavily anymore as we inch closer to the playoffs as Walker's expected return could limit Scheffler's looks going forward. That said, Scheffler is still playable as a very weak No. 1 tight end this week, though he is also a weak play.

Miller - The three catches for 33 yards for Miller last week is about all you can really expect from the rookie this year. Miller is a strong play this week against a Chiefs defense giving up 60.3 yards and 0.33 touchdowns per game to tight ends during the last four weeks, but he should only be used as an injury fill-in.

Place Kickers

Player	Team	Gm	XP/G	XPA/G	FG/G	FGA/G	Kick Pnts/G
Jason Elam	Denver Broncos	4	2.25	2.25	1.50	1.75	6.8
Dave Rayner	Kansas City Chiefs	3	1.00	1.00	1.33	2.33	5.0
Sebastian Janikowski	Oakland Raiders	4	0.75	0.75	2.75	3.00	9.0
Nate Kaeding	San Diego Chargers	4	2.75	2.75	0.75	0.75	5.0

Elam - Elam had his second solid game in a row Monday night, hitting both of his field goals and four extra points in the win over the Titans. The Broncos offense surprised fantasy owners with their strong performance against a usually tough defense, and with the offense gelling as of late, Elam's stock is rising. He is a strong play as a No. 1 option against Chicago this week.

Rayner - Rayner missed a pair of field goals last week that proved costly in their 13-10 loss to the Colts. Rayner has been flat for most of the season (making just 70 percent of his field goal attempets), but he remains in the lineup. But that doesn’t mean he should be in your fantasy lineup. Needless to say, he's a bench play against Oakland in Week 12.

Janikowski - Janikowski connected on all five of his field goal attempts in Week 11 to set a career high. It was nice for fantasy owners to see what Janikowski can do when the Raiders actually move the ball on offense. Oakland's opponent this week, Kansas City, has given up big games to opposing kickers lately, which makes Janikowski a strong play as a high-end No. 1 kicker.

Kaeding - Kaeding's stat lines for the last three weeks are identical, one field goal made and two extra points. That just won't cut it for fantasy owners. Even though Baltimore has given up the most opposing kicker points in the league during the last month (14.7 points per game), Kaeding should remain on the bench until this San Diego offense can give him more opportunities.

Defensive Teams

Team	Gm	Off Pnts Allw/G	INT/G	Sacks/G	FR/G	DEF/ST TD/G
Denver Broncos	4	20.0	1.25	1.8	0.75	0.4
Kansas City Chiefs	3	20.3	1.33	1.3	0.00	0.0
Oakland Raiders	4	20.2	0.50	2.0	0.75	0.0
San Diego Chargers	4	21.0	2.50	1.0	0.75	1.2

Broncos - The Broncos defense played to par Monday night against the Titans, holding them to 20 points and collecting one fumble and two interceptions. Wide receiver Glenn Martinez also scored a special teams touchdown with an 80-yard punt return. The Broncos dual cornerback stars could have a chance to rattle Bears' quarterback Rex Grossman, but the Bears offense has been effective lately. Consider the Broncos defense as a low-end No. 1 or bench option.

Chiefs - The Kansas City defense did all it could to throw Colts quarterback Peyton Manning off his game, and held the explosive team to just 13 points. The spirited defensive effort even came when the Chiefs offense struggled to score points themselves in the 13-10 loss. Facing Oakland this week, a team they held to just 10 points in Week 7, the Chiefs are a good No. 1 defense and a strong one-week play.

Raiders - The Raiders defense couldn’t contain Vikings running back Chester Taylor (202 total yards, three touchdowns) in last week's 29-22 loss to the Vikings. This week, Oakland goes up against a Chiefs offense that was only able to score 12 points in the Raiders' Week 7 12-10 loss. But the Chiefs of Week 12 are a much different looking team with Croyle under center and Smith at running back. No telling what the Raiders will do this week, so keep them on the bench unless you're desperate for a fill-in.

Chargers - This defense seemed to play uninspired in last week's 24-17 loss to the Jaguars. In addition to giving up all of Jacksonville's points, the Chargers didn't record an interception, a fumble recovery or a sack. The good news for owners is that the Chargers have a chance at redemption this week versus a Ravens offense that is among the league's worst the last four weeks. For that, the Chargers are a strong play as a No. 1 defense this week.