Fantasy Football and NFL News, Rumors and Injury Updates

AFC South Fantasy Outlook

November 21, 2007 @ 12:58:49

By Joe Book
Edited by Michael Egnak

Note: All statistics appearing in this article are from Weeks 8-11, unless otherwise noted.

Do Not Bench List - All Positions

Running Back Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville Jaguars: Although he has scored in six of his last seven games, there is some concern that the loss of carries to running back Fred Taylor will cost Jones-Drew fantasy points. He did score from one yard out, and re-established himself as the goal-line back. With quarterback David Garrard back under center, Jones-Drew can expect to catch more passes out of the backfield, especially this week against the Buffalo Bills. He has a strong play this week, and should post another solid fantasy day.
Wide Receiver Andre Johnson, Houston Texans: The return of Johnson (knee) to the Houston lineup was a success, as he pulled in six passes for 120 yards and a touchdown. Johnson now has 382 yards and four touchdowns in his three games played this year, and there is no reason to believe he won't continue to shine. Johnson has an extremely strong play this week against the Cleveland Browns, who rank 31st in the NFL in pass defense. Expect another monster game from Johnson.

Quarterbacks

Player	Team	Gm	Pass Yds/G	Pass TD/G	INT/G	Rush Yards/G	Rush TD/G
Matt Schaub	Houston Texans	2	185.0	1.00	1.00	3.5	0.00
David Garrard	Jacksonville Jaguars	1	189.0	2.00	0.00	4.0	0.00
Vince Young	Tennessee Titans	4	178.5	0.50	1.50	40.5	0.50

Schaub - Nobody was happier to see wide receiver Andre Johnson back on the field than Schaub, who passed for 293 yards and two touchdowns, without a turnover. The future is bright for this duo, and they should continue their success this week against the Browns, who have allowed 299.2 passing yards to the position over the last month. Schaub is a strong play this week as a No. 1 quarterback.

Garrard - Garrard (ankle) returned last week after missing three games with an ankle injury. He was effective, if unspectacular, tossing two touchdown passes and throwing for 189 yards. Garrard is the master of game management, having yet to throw an interception this season and posting a record of 5-1 when he plays a full game. While none of his receivers have stepped up as a top option, Garrard spreads the ball around and finds the open man. He has a strong play this weekend against a poor Buffalo pass defense.

Young - Trailing for most of the last two weeks, Young has been forced to throw the ball 41 times in each game. While it has helped his fantasy numbers, the Titans lost both games. Since you don't care about the outcome of the game, revel in Young's newfound fantasy talent. On top of using his arm, Young's legs are back on your side, as he has rushed for 151 yards and two touchdowns in the last three weeks. The Titans face a leaky Cincinnati Bengals defense, so start Young as a low-end No. 1 quarterback and hope for more of the same.

Running Backs

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rush Yds/G	Rush TD/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Ahman Green	Houston Texans	1	9.00 (4.79)	2.00 (13.25)	28.0	1.00	1.00	53.0	0.00
Ron Dayne	Houston Texans	3	21.33 (34.09)	2.00 (39.76)	86.0	0.33	1.33	8.0	0.00
Fred Taylor	Jacksonville Jaguars	4	18.50 (31.36)	1.00 (13.26)	63.0	0.25	0.25	1.0	0.00
Chris Brown	Tennessee Titans	1	7.00 (2.65)	0.00 (0.00)	14.0	0.00	4.00	61.0	0.00
LenDale White	Tennessee Titans	4	21.25 (32.22)	2.00 (34.77)	71.8	0.25	1.25	9.0	0.00

Green - Green (knee) was inactive for Week 11's game against the New Orleans Saints, and isn't expected to play this weekend. If he were to suit up for the game, he won't take many carries from running back Ron Dayne, who has taken over as the top running option. Leave Green on your bench, or place him on your team's injured list.

Dayne - Although Dayne accounted for 115 total yards on 24 touches, the fact that he didn't find the end zone was disappointing. He is the clear-cut No. 1 running back on the team by default, with running back Ahman Green (knee) potentially lost for the season and no other depth at the position. Dayne faces the improving Cleveland Browns run defense, and is a strong No. 2 running back this week.

Taylor - He kept pace by rushing for 4.3 yards per carry, equaling his season average. The difference was the 20 carries he received, giving fantasy owners a little boost in the yardage category. Taylor's number isn't called much in the red zone, and he has only five receptions this season, so take the 60 yards per game he offers and be happy with Taylor as one of the best No. 3 running backs in fantasy.

Brown - With quarterback Vince Young having rekindled his love for running, Brown becomes the third option for carries behind Young and running back LenDale White. Brown did catch four passes for 61 yards last week, mostly on checkdown passes, and showed that he's still in the mix despite not seeing the field since Week 6. He's not a fantasy starter, but simply insurance for White.

White - We warned you about stamina issues, and White has underperformed in two consecutive games. His 13 carries produced only 42 yards against one of the worst rushing defenses in the NFL. White has touched the ball only 24 times in the last two weeks, so it's possible that he'll be rejuvenated against the Bengals defense, which has allowed 104.0 yards per game to the position in the last month. Expect a rebound and use White as a strong No. 2 running back.

Wide Receivers

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Kevin Walter	Houston Texans	3	9.67 (15.45)	0.33 (6.63)	4.33	47.0	0.00
Andre' Davis	Houston Texans	3	4.33 (6.92)	0.00 (0.00)	1.67	29.0	0.33
Reggie Williams	Jacksonville Jaguars	4	3.75 (6.36)	0.00 (0.00)	2.50	55.0	0.50
Justin Gage	Tennessee Titans	4	6.25 (9.48)	0.25 (4.35)	4.25	49.5	0.25
Roydell Williams	Tennessee Titans	4	5.25 (7.96)	1.00 (17.39)	3.00	25.8	0.00

Walter - He's back to playing second fiddle to fellow receiver Andre Johnson, but Walter could put up nice numbers for the rest of the season if defenses focus on stopping Johnson. Walter only caught three passes last week, but now that Johnson has shown that he's healthy, Walter could get more looks. He's a very good possession receiver, which complements Johnson's vertical game well. Use Walter this week as a No. 3 receiver with a strong play, and don't be surprised if he has a quietly superb game.

Davis - Davis loses the most value of any of the Houston receivers with the return of Andre Johnson. Davis carved a niche by running fly patterns, and he won't be doing much of that as a No. 3 receiver. He had flashes of greatness during Johnson's absence, but nothing that will push receiver Kevin Walter for more playing time. Davis can be used as a No. 3 or injury replacement this week, and has a strong play against the Browns.

Re. Williams - He hasn't been consistent, and Jacksonville has a run-heavy offense, but Williams leads the team with five touchdown receptions. He's the closest thing the Jaguars have to a No. 1 receiver, but that doesn't mean you can rely on him for fantasy performance. The Bills don't offer much in the way of a pass defense, but Williams is still only a No. 3 fantasy receiver with a strong play.

Gage - Gage has quietly emerged as one of quarterback Vince Young's favorite targets, catching 13 passes in the last two weeks. This spike in production can be largely attributed to Young's increased number of pass attempts, and once Tennessee returns to their traditional run-oriented offense, Gage and the rest of the Titans air attackers will suffer. In the meantime, use Gage as a No. 3 receiver this week against the Bengals.

Ro. Williams - Since his explosion in Week 7 against the Texans, Williams has been borderline worthless in the fantasy world. He has 12 catches for 103 yards in the last month, and with quarterback Vince Young targeting receiver Justin Gage and tight end Bo Scaife more, there aren't many balls left for Williams. He shouldn't be in your lineup this or any week hereinafter.

Tight Ends

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Owen Daniels	Houston Texans	3	5.33 (8.52)	0.00 (0.00)	4.33	50.0	0.00
Marcedes Lewis	Jacksonville Jaguars	4	2.00 (3.39)	0.25 (3.32)	1.50	13.8	0.25
Bo Scaife	Tennessee Titans	4	5.75 (8.72)	0.50 (8.69)	3.75	33.5	0.00

Daniels - Daniels broke his nose during Houston's Week 11 win over the Saints, but that shouldn't affect his play. He hauled in five passes for 74 yards, but still couldn't find the end zone with a map. He isn't targeted in the red zone at all, so any touchdowns would have to come from some distance, and we see how that has gone this year. Daniels has become the Fred Taylor of tight ends, offering good yardage but no scoring. Cleveland has been surprisingly good against tight ends this season, so use Daniels as only a low-end No. 1 or injury replacement.

Lewis - One catch, one yard, one touchdown. It's a familiar line for a tight end who splits targets with several others at the position. Lewis is still the most talented tight end on the team, but until the touches go solely his way, he can't be counted on as a fantasy starter.

Scaife - The numbers don't show it yet, but Scaife is emerging as one of the most targeted tight ends in football. With quarterback Vince Young establishing a good rapport with his young tight end, Scaife's chances figure to increase down the stretch. He isn't consistent enough yet to warrant a spot in your lineup, but he's definitely worth a roster spot and a watchful eye over the next two weeks.

Place Kickers

Player	Team	Gm	XP/G	XPA/G	FG/G	FGA/G	Kick Pnts/G
Kris Brown	Houston Texans	3	2.00	2.00	1.67	2.00	7.0
Josh Scobee	Jacksonville Jaguars	1	3.00	3.00	1.00	1.00	6.0
Rob Bironas	Tennessee Titans	4	1.50	1.50	2.00	2.00	7.5

Brown - With quarterback Matt Schaub and receiver Andre Johnson seemingly healthy, Brown returns to his spot at the top of the fantasy kicker rankings. He booted three field goals last week, and has another strong play against the Browns, who have allowed 10.8 kicker points over the last month.

Scobee - Scobee (quad) kicked for the first time since Week 1, and made one field goal to go with his three extra points. Buffalo doesn't give up many kicker points, and with the Jacksonville offense not giving many chances, Scobee should find your bench this week.

Bironas - He's become a kicking machine, making exactly two field goals each of the last four weeks. He's as consistent as they come, and should be in your lineup again this weekend.

Defensive Teams

Team	Gm	Off Pnts Allw/G	INT/G	Sacks/G	FR/G	DEF/ST TD/G
Houston Texans	3	16.7	1.67	1.0	0.33	0.00
Jacksonville Jaguars	4	22.0	1.75	1.8	0.50	0.50
Tennessee Titans	4	18.0	0.75	3.5	0.75	0.00

Texans - Houston posted a surprisingly solid performance against a hot Saints offense, forcing three turnovers and only allowing 47 yards on the ground. Their matchups don't get any easier, as they travel to Cleveland to face a high-powered Browns offense. Translation: Houston rides the pine.

Jaguars - The Jaguars offered almost nothing to fantasy owners who started them in Week 11, intercepting two passes but recording no sacks or forced fumbles. They are an inconsistent unit who can't be trusted to perform. Even with the matchup against the struggling Bills offense, Jacksonville is only a low-end No. 1 defense this week.

Titans - After starting the season on fire, the Titans defense has been horrible the last two weeks, allowing 332 yards rushing and 55 points. They aren't pressuring the quarterback like in weeks prior, and it has hurt their run defense. With a matchup looming against the Bengals, Tennessee is a low-end No. 1 defense at best this week.