Garland Decorates Angels Staff

November 21, 2007 @ 06:24:27

By David Wysocki
Edited by Tim Heaney

A shockwave was sent through Southern California during Monday, Nov. 19, when the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim sent Gold Glove shortstop Orlando Cabrera to the Chicago White Sox in exchange for starting pitcher Jon Garland. The Halos also sent $1.5 million to consummate the transaction. The deal makes sense for both clubs and marks the beginning of what appears to be a bold offseason from new Angels' GM Tony Reagins.

The fact that pitching comes at such a premium these days should alleviate some of the surprise. Garland, a gaudy 6-foot-6 righthander, is about as sturdy as they come, pitching more than 208 innings in each of the past four seasons. But trading Cabrera, a plus hitter for his position, a great defensive player, and a clubhouse leader took many off guard. Cabrera, with his .345 on-base percentage from 2007, will represent a huge upgrade offensively for a team desperate to put guys on base. He'll be an even bigger upgrade defensively over current Sox shortstop Juan Uribe, who will likely be traded or move over to second base.

A Career in Moderation

There's no doubt Cabrera is a solid shortstop, but the Angels netted a steady starter considering the thin free agent market.

In the hitter-friendly American League, Garland's highest ERA over the last five seasons was his 4.89 mark in 2004. He may not be an ace, but he sure as heck seems to provide the “stability” that Reagins wanted to add to the Angels' rotation after a rocky year from a couple of normally reliable options in 2007.

Table 1: Garland Career 162-Game Averages, Eight Seasons with Chicago White Sox

Player	GS	W	L	CG	SHO	IP	H	HR	BB	SO	ERA	WHIP
Jon Garland	32	13	11	1	0	207	214	26	68	110	4.41	1.37

The 28-year-old southern California native is entering the final year of a three-year, $29 million contract. The finesse pitcher allowed more hits than innings pitched in 2007, a stat that has occurred in four of his seven full MLB seasons. His K/BB ratio comes in at less than 2-to-1, and his WHIP has sat below 1.33 just once. But the Angels know he has won 18 games twice and is a former All-Star. Garland will also bring his 2005 World Series ring to a team that looks to compete every year.

Angels on the Mound

The Angels are now overloaded at arguably the most important position in the game. John Lackey spearheads the rotation and behind him are Kelvim Escobar, Jered Weaver, Garland, Joe Saunders and Ervin Santana. Santana has long been rumored to be bait for potential deals to bring a slugger to Anaheim. The latest hot-stove grumblings have sent Florida Marlins third baseman Miguel Cabrera to either the Angels or a few miles up Interstate-5 to the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Garland move could be a sign a deal like this is coming.

Table 2: Angels '08 Starting Pitchers with '07 statistics

Player	W	L	CG	IP	H	BB	SO	ERA	WHIP
Jon Garland	10	13	2	208.1	219	57	98	4.23	1.32
John Lackey	19	9	2	224.0	219	52	179	3.01	1.21
Kelvim Escobar	18	7	3	195.2	182	66	160	3.40	1.27
Jered Weaver	13	7	0	161.0	178	45	115	3.91	1.39
Joe Saunders	8	5	0	107.1	129	34	69	4.44	1.52
Ervin Santana	7	14	0	150.0	174	58	126	5.76	1.55

In 2007 the Angels staff was very solid again as they posted a 4.23 ERA, good for fifth in the A.L., but Santana and 250-pound Bartolo Colon struggled. Santana, soon to be 25 years old, saw a regression when his WHIP rose from 1.23 in 2006 to 1.55 in 2007 and his ERA climbed from 4.28 to 5.76. In his first two big league seasons he went 28-16, but his tally in his latest campaign witnessed a virtual reversal in these figures as he won just 7 games and dropped 14. His potential is still sky-high, and the Angels may decide to keep him around.

Colon is two years separated from a Cy Young award but has struggled to stay on the field, pitching just 155.2 innings in the past two seasons combined. He is now a free agent, and his 5.11 ERA in 2006 and 6.34 ERA from last season have helped him secure his bus ticket.

Garland has seen some struggles in Anaheim over his career and is 2-4 with a 4.94 ERA at Angel Stadium. He actually has more walks (17) than strikeouts (16) at this ballpark in 47.1 innings of work. He doesn't fare well against A.L. West teams either outside of the Seattle Mariners, whom against he is 6-2 with a 3.15 ERA. Against the rest of the A.L. West, excluding the Angels, Garland is 7-15 with an ERA hovering around 5.00. In 2007, however, Garland threw well against the Oakland Athletics and impressed the Anaheim brass with a 3.00 ERA over 21 innings against their Angels.

For his entire career Garland has pitched his home games at U.S. Cellular Field, which is considered a better hitter's park than in Anaheim, so he may improve. However, his ERA was nearly half a run lower at home last season.

For many sabermetricians, Garland is only a minimal improvement over Saunders, but it is hard to put a statistical value on presence, experience, or stability. Even while his PECOTA puts him in the middle of the pack among major league pitchers (a 23.5 rating of Value Over Replacement Player), he is still a solid and very safe acquisition considering the free agent market for starting pitching which features the aging 43-year-old Kenny Rogers as possibly the prize of his class.

Replacing Cabrera

While the Angels staff looks secure once again heading into 2008, the hitting may be a little more suspect with the trade of Cabrera. In 2007 the Angels surprisingly produced the fourth best offense in the American League while scoring 822 runs, but still don't really have protection for mashing outfielder Vladimir Guerrero.

The future of the Halos' infield is equally as murky as phenom second baseman Howie Kendrick has also been rumored in a monster package to net the Marlins' Cabrera. There have also reportedly been discussions with the Baltimore Orioles about shortstop Miguel Tejada. As of now, however, the Angels look to have any combination of infielders Maicer Izturis, Chone Figgins, Erik Aybar, or even prospect Brandon Wood at third base and shortstop. A trade of Kendrick would move one of them to second. All of these scenarios represent major question marks - a far cry from the reliable shortstop situation of the past three seasons.

Fantasy Summary

For the defending A.L. West champion Angels, the future does look positive. It would be hard to imagine the Halos entering the season without good options at shortstop and third base, but monitor the Angels' offseason accordingly.

Garland seems primed to improve in 2008 if the Angels can give him some run support. In 2007 the White Sox ranked dead last in offense, scoring just 693 runs. Garland, despite trends toward a low strikeout total and higher WHIP figure can still win 15 to 17 games in 2008. Garland can't strike out a lot of guys so he needs to consistently pitch to contact and keep the ball on the ground. There's spotty evidence to suggest he may be able to make this turn as he gave up just 19 round trippers in 2007, seven lower than 2006 and his lowest total allowed since 2001 in which he threw just 117 innings. Keep a lookout as he could end up being a value pick in later rounds this spring.

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David Wysocki

David has been a KFFL writer since 2005. He is a San Diego native and a History and Geography student at California State University-Chico. He has a writing background and has appeared in, and helped produce, various local newsletters and magazines on sports and music. He also pitched for the No. 2 nationally ranked Rancho Buena Vista Longhorns his senior year of high school in 2002.

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