Matchups to Exploit - Week 12 - Thanksgiving Day
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November 21, 2007 @ 06:18:27
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By Hot off the Wire Network Contributors
Edited by Nicholas Minnix
Packers QB Brett Favre vs. Lions CBs Fernando Bryant, Stanley Wilson and Keith Smith
The Packers quarterback is having an outstanding season; he also has the weapons and patience to handle the Cover 2 scheme that Detroit head coach Rod Marinelli runs. The Packers figure to have some problems running the ball against Detroit's defense, which ranks eighth in rushing yards allowed and third in yards allowed per carry. The Lions rank 30th in passing yards allowed, though, and Favre is on top of his game. The wild card is Detroit's No. 2 ranking in the NFL in interceptions. But with the way Favre is playing, he could both put up the big passing numbers and keep his interceptions down.
Lions WRs Roy Williams and Calvin Johnson vs. Packers CBs Al Harris and Charles Woodson
Detroit has two big, gifted receivers, and the Packers will continue to play the bump-and-run coverage they've played all season. Something has to give. Williams (6-foot-3, 211 pounds) leads Detroit's dangerous passing attack with 55 receptions, and although Johnson (6-foot-5, 239 pounds) is only fifth with 24, he has immense talent and is a big-play threat. Other factors will play into what happens here - the pass rush on quarterback Jon Kitna, primarily - but winning one-on-one battles will be most important. Harris probably will cover Williams on most snaps and test him by pressing him all day. Williams will have to work to get open. Last year, he had seven catches for 138 yards in the teams' first meeting but only one catch for 11 yards in the second. He has picked up his production the last two games. He had two touchdown catches against the Arizona Cardinals, and he had 106 receiving yards against the New York Giants. He left a lot of plays on the field and made mistakes, though - he missed sight adjustments and ran the wrong routes, most notably.
Lions OT Jonathan Scott vs. Packers DE Aaron Kampman
Scott (thumb) is starting for the second time this season and the sixth time in his NFL career. Kampman's nine sacks are tied for third in the league. Scott replaces the struggling George Foster at left tackle. He brings good size - he's 6-foot-6, 315 pounds - and athleticism. However, he missed the last two games because of a broken thumb and will have barely practiced this week because of the shortened schedule. He doesn't have much experience, and Kampman is a Pro Bowl player.
Jets RB Thomas Jones vs. Cowboys run defense
Jones had his third 100-yard rushing game of the season versus the Pittsburgh Steelers, gaining 117 yards on 30 carries. The Jets need to maintain that commitment to the running game. An effective ground game would be a major help here, as it would shorten the game and give the Cowboys' potent offense fewer possessions to wreak havoc. Jones is 10th in the league with 723 yards rushing.
Cowboys RB Julius Jones vs. Jets run defense
Five running backs went for more than 100 yards against the Jets this season, and a sixth (the Baltimore Ravens' Willis McGahee) had 97 yards. The Cowboys have not had a 100-yard rusher since Week 14 last year versus the New Orleans Saints, when Jones ran for 116 yards. Jones' slashing style could give the Jets' 3-4 defense some trouble, but the Cowboys' offensive line needs to do a better job. Dallas has not produced 100 yards on the ground in the last two games. Jones has 245 yards rushing in three Thanksgiving Day games, but 150 of that came in 2004 versus the Chicago Bears.
Cowboys WR Terrell Owens vs. Jets CBs Darrelle Revis, Hank Poteat, David Barrett and Andre Dyson
The Cowboys are moving Owens around to create all kinds of mismatches and get a defense thinking. It's working, with Owens ripping off four straight 100-yard games and recording seven touchdown catches. The Jets struggled with New England Patriots receiver Randy Moss (nine catches, 183 yards, one touchdown) in the season opener, and Owens is playing as well as Moss right now. Facing a similar style of defense (New England) earlier in the year, Owens had six catches for 66 yards and a touchdown. TO is making headlines on the field instead of off it this season. He's 13th in the NFL in receptions with 58, second in receiving yards with 1,028 and second in touchdown catches with 12. He is coming off a four-touchdown game against the Washington Redskins. This is why the Jets traded up 11 spots in the first round to select Revis, though - so that he could cover standout receivers such as Owens. Can he when given the chance?
Colts RB Joseph Addai vs. Falcons run defense
Nobody questions the determination of Falcons middle linebacker Keith Brooking, a five-time Pro Bowler. But the Falcons' 25th-ranked run defense (124 yards allowed per game) took a big hit this week. It was gutted when both defensive tackles, Trey Lewis (knee) and Rod Coleman (arm, hand), were lost for the season with critical injuries. Defensive tackles Montavious Stanley and Jonathan Babineaux will take their places. The Colts are coming off their two worst rushing games of the season, averaging 70.5 yards per game and 2.7 yards per carry. The Colts average 124.2 yards per game as a team; Addai has 832 yards on 192 carries - 4.3 yards per carry - and eight touchdowns. Teams are stacking the box to take away Addai's runs because the Colts have been suspect at receiver aside from Reggie Wayne. Atlanta may be forced to do that without its inside guys. The hard-charging Addai will certainly test the middle of the Falcons run defense. If Addai is on the move, the Colts may not have a need to pass the football, other than to stay sharp.
Colts WR Reggie Wayne vs. Falcons CB DeAngelo Hall
Hall has had his problems this season. The Giants were able to pick on Hall, and last week the Tampa Bay Buccaneers got him to bite on a slant-and-go route that resulted in a 44-yard touchdown from receiver Joey Galloway. Look for Colts quarterback Peyton Manning to see if he can't get Wayne to shake-and-bake Hall and get open. Hall is starting to develop a reputation for sitting on routes in order to get interceptions. A sleek route runner like Wayne will certainly take advantage of such ill-advised play.
Colts OT Tony Ugoh vs. Falcons DE John Abraham
The Colts' rookie blocker should return after missing four games with a shoulder burner that moved up into his neck. His likely assignment is one of the best pass rushers in the game in Abraham, who has seven of the team's 14 sacks. It's a given that if the Falcons are going to get pressure on Manning, it likely will come from Abraham. Ugoh has played surprisingly well for a second-round pick that, at the time of the draft, was expected to have one year of seasoning. However, offensive tackle Tarik Glenn retired, so Ugoh was thrust into the role; he hasn't been beaten too often. The key, as always, is for him to utilize his side-to-side movement. He must be quick to stay in front of Abraham.
Falcons offensive line vs. Colts pass rush
The Falcons have given up 32 sacks. Only Detroit (40) and Philadelphia (32) have given up as many or more. The Falcons' problems in pass protection start with rookie left guard Justin Blalock, who has been beaten on a variety of twists and stunts. They also have Quinn Ojinnaka at left tackle. He's the fourth starting left tackle that the team has played this season. The Colts only have 16 sacks this season, and four of them belong to defensive end Dwight Freeney (foot), who's out for the season. Defensive tackle Ed Johnson and defensive end Josh Thomas will line up opposite Blalock and Ojinnaka. Also, old Atlanta nemesis Simeon Rice could see some action at defensive end. He used to torment Atlanta when he played for Tampa Bay.
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