Posada to Spend Golden Years in Pinstripes

November 20, 2007 @ 16:57:07

By Joshua Ellis
Edited by Tim Heaney

Instead of releasing the old blood in the organization, the New York Yankees have spent this offseason locking up their veteran players to long-term contracts. The latest recipient of a Yankee deal is catcher Jorge Posada. On Monday, Nov. 12, Posada signed a new four-year, $52 million deal to keep the 13-year veteran in pinstripes past his 40^th birthday.

Loyalty Pays Off

Posada is a modern-day rarity. He's a so-called "True Yankee" since he has been with the Yankees since he they selected him a second time in the 24th round of the 1990 MLB draft.

He spent parts of six years in the minor leagues working his way up to becoming the Yankees' primary catcher in 1998. Throughout his long career, Posada has been a consistent producer both behind the plate (managing the high-priced pitching talent) and at the plate. In a position not known for producing good hitters, the switch-hitting Posada has amassed a career batting average of .277 with 218 home runs and 861 RBI.

In his contract year, Posada had the best year of his career. Posada hit .338 with 20 home runs and 90 RBI in 144 games. His career-high in doubles (42) suggests that Posada’s power stroke is still there.

Recent History

At the age of 36, can Posada still produce at the level fantasy owners expect from a high profile catcher? Or will he slowly decline over the length of his new contract? In order to determine this, it would make sense to look at other catchers in a similar position.

Once the cream of the crop in the National League, Colorado Rockies catcher Javy Lopez set the positional record by belting 41 home runs in his contract year as a 33-year-old in 2003. He also had a career high in average at .328 that season for the Atlanta Braves. These numbers are similar to those Posada pulled in last season.

He went on to sign with the Baltimore Orioles only to see his play steadily decline after one good season with the Orioles (23 HR, 86 RBI, .316). He would total 84 RBI in scattered play over the next three seasons.

Mike Piazza, the all-time leader in home runs by a catcher, has battled injuries amidst being on three teams in three years and has not been the same in his late thirties as he was in the prime of his career.

Finally, Detroit Tigers catcher Ivan Rodriguez had a phenomenal year in 2004 as a 33-year-old and also has not come back to the numbers he saw that season.

What the Future Holds

Overall, the catcher position is one of the most physically demanding positions on the diamond, and with age comes less offensive production and more days off. Posada's production in 2007, especially his batting average, indicates an outlier in his career statistics. He has always been able to perform consistently from a run production standpoint (he's averaged 87 RBI per season over the last five years), but his career average of .277 shows that he over-performed last season.

The expected return of third baseman Alex Rodriguez takes some pressure off Posada coming into the season since he won't have to help carry the offensive load. In fact, the Yankees have never needed to rely on Posada for his offense because of the phenomenal bats that they have put around the veteran, and mainly focused on the Bronx pitchers. Over the next four seasons, Posada might shift his focus towards handling pitchers and not worrying about producing at the plate. Then again, hitting in the lower half of the Yankees order won't completely shut him out of production with the stick.

Fantasy Outlook

In an era of free agency, not many examples match Posada's commitment to the team that drafted him nearly 20 years ago. However, at this very demanding position in a new era where the Yankees should be more concerned with pitching than production at the plate, part of the reason they brought him back was for him to help groom their young hurlers. Still, the 36-year-old has seen his best days pass by. Over the length of his contract, Posada's stats will likely dip back close to his career numbers. A move to first base might not fly because the Yankees have the resources to fill that spot, and they are already stockpiled with first basemen on their 25-man roster and in their minor league system.

However, for 2008, consider him an upper-tier fantasy catcher. He might be on the downside of his career, but his lineup situation and 2007 performance both justify ignoring his age. Even if his numbers dwindle, he should still be able to drive in an above-average amount of runs for a catcher.

Posada has less upside than other options including Los Angeles Dodgers catcher Russell Martin and Cleveland Indians catcher Victor Martinez, but you wouldn't be ridiculed for putting him in the top 10 at the position for fantasy purposes next season. He's worth an upper mid-round pick in deeper leagues. For keeper league general managers, you should sell high on him if you haven't already.

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Joshua Ellis
Joshua has been a KFFL contributor since 2006.

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